Why did the price of PYTH fall?

Pyth Network (PYTH) dropped 1.8% in the last 24 hours, continuing a larger downward trend (-18% over the past week, -43% over the past month). Here’s why:

1. Overall crypto market weakness – The total crypto market value fell 8% this week, while Bitcoin’s share of the market rose to 60%.
2. Technical signals show weakness – PYTH is trading below important moving averages, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 30, indicating it’s oversold.
3. Upcoming token unlocks causing concern – About 2.13 billion PYTH tokens (worth roughly $195 million) will become available in May 2025, which is putting pressure on the price.

Deep Dive

1. Market-Wide Risk Aversion (Negative Impact)

Overview:
The total value of all cryptocurrencies dropped 8% this week to $3.43 trillion (as of November 6, 2025). Bitcoin’s dominance increased to 60%, showing that investors are favoring Bitcoin as a safer option. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 24, which means “Extreme Fear” — the lowest level since March 2025.

What this means:
Altcoins like PYTH are struggling because investors are avoiding risk. PYTH’s price moves closely follow Bitcoin’s, with a 30-day correlation of 0.87, meaning it tends to move in the same direction as Bitcoin. Trading volume has also dropped 45% to $27 million in 24 hours, making the price more volatile.

Key watch: Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $110,000 support level is crucial. If Bitcoin falls below this, it could trigger more selling in altcoins like PYTH.

2. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Overview:
PYTH’s price fell below an important support level at $0.113 (which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level) and is now testing $0.0806 (the 78.6% Fibonacci level). Key technical indicators show:

• RSI over 7 days is 30.17, which means the token is oversold but hasn’t shown signs of reversing yet.
• MACD (a momentum indicator) is negative and expanding, signaling downward momentum.
• The price is below all key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), including the 7-day EMA at $0.1004.

What this means:
The technical picture suggests that selling pressure is strong. PYTH will likely continue to face resistance until it can climb back above $0.113.

Key watch: A daily close above $0.113 could indicate a short-term recovery.

3. Token Unlock Anxiety (Negative Impact)

Overview:
On May 7, 2025, 2.13 billion PYTH tokens (worth about $195 million at current prices) will be unlocked. This amount represents 37% of the tokens currently available for trading. This unlock follows a big price jump of 91% in late August 2025, when the U.S. government partnered with Pyth Network to provide on-chain economic data.

What this means:
Investors are worried about the potential increase in supply, which can lower the price. PYTH’s price has already dropped 75% from its August 2025 peak of $0.25. Past token unlocks, like the 1.5 billion PYTH tokens released in May 2024, were followed by price drops of over 40%.

Key watch: Watch for large holders moving tokens to exchanges before the unlock date, as this could lead to increased selling pressure.

Conclusion

PYTH’s recent price drop reflects a mix of overall market caution, technical weakness, and concerns about upcoming token unlocks. While the token is oversold and might see a short bounce, the overall trend is likely downward until Bitcoin stabilizes and the May 2025 token unlock passes.

Key watch: Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s $110,000 support level and monitor large PYTH token movements on blockchain explorers like Etherscan.

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What could affect the price of PYTH?

Pyth Network’s (PYTH) price depends on how much institutions adopt it, upcoming token unlocks, and competition among data providers called oracles.

1. Growing Institutional Use – Phase 2 aims to enter the $50 billion market data industry (positive sign).
2. Large Token Unlock Ahead – 2.13 billion PYTH tokens (about 37% of supply) unlock in May 2025 (potentially negative).
3. Oracle Competition Heats Up – Chainlink leads, but Pyth offers faster, more accurate data (mixed outlook).

In-Depth Look

1. Institutional Adoption (Positive for PYTH)

What’s Happening:
Pyth is moving beyond decentralized finance (DeFi) into traditional finance (TradFi) with its Phase 2 rollout. This targets the huge $50 billion institutional market data sector. For example, the U.S. Department of Commerce is now publishing GDP data on-chain using Pyth (U.S. DOC). Also, Pyth has teamed up with B2C2 to provide professional-grade crypto pricing for institutions.

Why It Matters:
Even capturing just 1% of this market could mean over $500 million in yearly revenue. Plus, if PYTH becomes the token used to pay for data subscriptions (a governance vote is coming), demand for the token could increase as more institutions join.

2. Token Unlock Supply Pressure (Potentially Negative)

What’s Happening:
On May 20, 2025, 2.13 billion PYTH tokens will become available for trading—this is about 37% of the current circulating supply. Historically, big token unlocks like this often lead to selling pressure. For example, after a similar unlock in January 2025, PYTH’s price dropped 42% within 30 days.

Why It Matters:
This unlock could add roughly $195 million worth of tokens to the market (assuming a price of $0.09). Unless big buyers like institutions step in or staking incentives increase, this could push prices down further.

3. Oracle Market Competition (Mixed Impact)

What’s Happening:
In the first quarter of 2025, Pyth held about 32.5% of the oracle market, while Chainlink led with 51% (Cointribune). Pyth’s advantage is its fast updates (every 400 milliseconds) and direct data sources, which appeal to platforms trading derivatives. However, Chainlink’s wider network and partnerships, like with SWIFT for banking, remain strong competitors.

Why It Matters:
Pyth’s speed could help it dominate fast-paced DeFi markets, but slower adoption in traditional enterprise settings might limit growth.

Summary

PYTH’s future depends on balancing big institutional opportunities with the risks of a large token unlock coming in May 2025. Keep an eye on changes in staking rates (currently 23% of tokens are staked) and upcoming governance decisions in Phase 2. The key question: Will institutions buy enough tokens to absorb the selling pressure, or will retail investors face the downside?

What are people saying about PYTH?

The conversation around Pyth Network (PYTH) is a mix of optimism about big institutional partnerships and concerns over upcoming token releases. Here’s what’s making headlines:

1. U.S. Government partnership drives 100% price jump
2. Phase 2 aims at a $50 billion market data industry
3. $333 million token unlock raises selloff worries

In-Depth Look

1. U.S. Government Data Deal – Positive Signal

According to @the_smart_ape, the U.S. Department of Commerce has chosen Pyth Network to verify and distribute GDP data on the blockchain. This announcement caused PYTH’s price to double.
See original post
Why it matters: This partnership shows that Pyth is gaining trust as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain technology. It could open doors to new business opportunities with large institutions.

2. Expanding into a $50 Billion Market – Positive Outlook

@Cipher2X highlights that Pyth’s Phase 2 will launch high-quality data feeds aimed at institutional clients. Capturing just 1% of this $50 billion market could mean $500 million in yearly revenue.
See original post
Why it matters: This shows Pyth is moving beyond decentralized finance (DeFi) into a much larger market. The token’s value is linked to subscription fees and revenue sharing, which could boost demand.

3. Token Unlock Risks – Negative Signal

An analysis from CoinMarketCap warns that a $333 million token unlock scheduled for May 20, 2025, represents 58% of the circulating supply. This could flood the market and push prices down. PYTH has already dropped 72% from its 2023 high.
Why it matters: Large token releases often lead to price drops if there isn’t enough buying interest to absorb the new supply, especially when technical indicators are weak.

Conclusion

The outlook for PYTH is mixed. On one hand, strong institutional partnerships and market expansion are positive signs. On the other, the upcoming token unlock poses a risk of price pressure. Key price levels to watch are $0.13 (support) and $0.18 (resistance). Falling below $0.13 could mean a deeper decline, while holding above $0.18 might signal renewed buying interest. The big question is whether Pyth’s growing fundamentals can outweigh the impact of token unlocks.

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What is the latest news about PYTH?

Pyth Network is gaining momentum with growing institutional use and new product offerings, but upcoming token unlocks could impact its price. Here are the key updates:

1. U.S. Government On-Chain Data Deal (August 28, 2025) – PYTH’s price jumped 70% after being chosen to distribute U.S. GDP data across multiple blockchains.
2. B2C2 Joins as Institutional Data Contributor (October 21, 2025) – Added real-time pricing data from over 125 institutional sources, including banks and hedge funds.
3. Phase 2 Expansion Targets $50 Billion Market (September 5, 2025) – Launched subscription services offering advanced data feeds for institutional clients.

Deep Dive

1. U.S. Government On-Chain Data Deal (August 28, 2025)

What happened:
The U.S. Department of Commerce partnered with Pyth Network to publish important economic data—like GDP, employment, and inflation—directly on nine blockchains, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is the first major government use of decentralized oracles, which are tools that securely deliver real-world data to blockchain applications.

Why it matters:
This deal shows that Pyth’s technology is trusted for critical, high-profile uses. It could attract more institutional projects in decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized assets. However, PYTH’s price is still 85% below its 2024 high, partly due to selling pressure from earlier token unlocks. (Crypto Briefing)

2. B2C2 Joins as Institutional Data Contributor (October 21, 2025)

What happened:
B2C2, a major crypto liquidity provider, joined Pyth’s network of over 125 data contributors. They provide real-time trading data from banks and hedge funds, improving the accuracy of prices for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Why it matters:
Better data quality strengthens Pyth’s position in the oracle market, where it held a 32.5% share in the first quarter of 2025. However, competition is strong—Chainlink, a leading oracle provider, also secured a U.S. government contract. (Finance Magnates)

3. Phase 2 Expansion Targets $50 Billion Market (September 5, 2025)

What happened:
Pyth announced Phase 2 of its growth plan, aiming at the $50 billion institutional market for data services. This includes subscription-based risk models and tools to help with regulatory compliance. The community will vote on whether to use PYTH tokens for payments and sharing revenue.

Why it matters:
Expanding beyond DeFi could open new revenue streams, especially if traditional financial firms adopt these services. PYTH’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) is $1.1 billion, much smaller than Chainlink’s $23 billion, indicating room for growth if Pyth executes well. (The Smart Ape)

Conclusion

Pyth Network is connecting traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi) through important partnerships and innovative data solutions. However, its token price faces challenges from past unlocks, down 44% year-to-date. The big question is whether Phase 2’s focus on institutional clients can balance out the impact of another 2.13 billion tokens unlocking in May 2026.

What is expected in the development of PYTH?

Pyth Network’s roadmap is focused on expanding its reach with institutions and offering a wider variety of data:

1. Institutional Subscription Launch (Q4 2025) – Paid access to high-quality market data used by traditional finance.
2. Kalshi Prediction Market Integration (October 13, 2025) – Real-time event data for decentralized finance (DeFi) products.
3. Asian Equity Expansion (2026) – Adding data from major Asian stock markets like Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea.

In-Depth Look

1. Institutional Subscription Launch (Q4 2025)

What’s happening:
Pyth is introducing a subscription service that offers premium market data aimed at traditional financial institutions. This market is worth over $50 billion (Cipher X). The service will include tools like risk models, settlement systems, and compliance features.

Why it matters:
This move could bring steady revenue to Pyth (potentially $500 million per year if it captures just 1% of the market) and position it as a key link between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). However, Pyth faces competition from established players like Chainlink and must navigate regulatory rules around data licensing.

2. Kalshi Prediction Market Integration (October 13, 2025)

What’s happening:
Pyth will provide on-chain access to Kalshi’s regulated prediction market data, which includes information on events like elections and economic indicators (AggrNews).

Why it matters:
This expands Pyth’s data beyond just pricing, allowing DeFi applications to create products based on real-world events. While this is a positive step, success depends on developers building useful applications in the relatively niche prediction market space.

3. Asian Equity Expansion (2026)

What’s happening:
After launching Hong Kong stock market data in July 2025, Pyth plans to add coverage for over $5 trillion in Asian equities, starting with Japan and South Korea (Pyth Network).

Why it matters:
This expansion could increase the use of the Pyth Network and demand for the PYTH token as more Asian institutions participate. However, high-speed trading in Asia demands very fast data updates, and delays over 400 milliseconds could limit adoption.

Conclusion

Pyth is evolving from a decentralized finance oracle into a global financial data platform. Its growth will rely on attracting institutional subscribers and expanding into Asian markets. How well it aligns with regulations and how quickly developers adopt its new data offerings will be key to maintaining its $537 million market value.

What factors could help Pyth accelerate its growth in traditional finance?

What updates are there in the PYTH code base?

Pyth Network's software is actively being improved with recent updates to its Entropy randomness engine, cross-chain development tools, and security efforts.

1. Entropy V2 Upgrade (July 31, 2025) – Improved randomness engine with easier integration for developers.
2. Smart Contract Verification Grants (October 28, 2025) – Funding to encourage audits and increase network transparency.
3. Cross-Chain SDK Updates (November 5, 2025) – Enhancements to Solana and Sui blockchain tools for better performance.

Deep Dive

1. Entropy V2 Upgrade (July 31, 2025)

Overview: Pyth Network upgraded its on-chain randomness engine, called Entropy, to make it faster and easier for developers to use in applications like prediction markets and NFT platforms.

Key improvements include:

• Custom gas limits that allow more complex operations without running into resource limits.
• Clearer error messages to help developers quickly identify and fix issues.
• A new keeper network that reduces delays in delivering random values.

What this means: This upgrade is positive for PYTH because it enhances Pyth’s usefulness in Web3 gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi), where secure and tamper-proof randomness is essential. Developers can now build more advanced applications with less hassle.
(Source)

2. Smart Contract Verification Grants (October 28, 2025)

Overview: The Pyth Data Association started a grant program to verify the security of Entropy’s smart contracts across more than 50 blockchains.

Developers receive 1,000 PYTH tokens per verified blockchain (including both mainnet and testnet) to encourage thorough code reviews.

What this means: This is neutral for PYTH’s price but helps reduce risks by involving the community in auditing. This could build more trust from institutions considering Pyth’s technology.
(Source)

3. Cross-Chain SDK Updates (November 5, 2025)

Overview: Recent updates to Pyth’s software development kits (SDKs) for Solana and Sui blockchains include:

• Solana-Receiver SDK upgraded to Anchor-Lang v0.31.1 for improved security.
• Introduction of the Lazer Sui SDK to support Move-based blockchains like Sui.

What this means: This is a positive development for PYTH because it expands Pyth’s ability to provide real-time data feeds across multiple blockchains. This helps decentralized apps (dApps) on newer chains like Sui while keeping strong support for Solana.
(Source)

Conclusion

Pyth Network’s recent updates focus on making the platform more scalable across different blockchains (Sui and Solana), easier for developers to use (Entropy V2), and more secure (verification grants). As institutional adoption grows—especially with partnerships involving U.S. economic data—these improvements could help establish Pyth as a key player in on-chain financial infrastructure.