Why did the price of PYTH fall?

Pyth Network (PYTH) dropped 1.55% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 0.89%. Here are the main reasons:

1. Token Unlock Concerns – Investors are worried about a large token release planned for May 2025, which will unlock 2.13 billion PYTH tokens, about 58% of the current supply.
2. Technical Challenges – The price is struggling to stay above important short-term averages, like the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.1018.
3. Market Sentiment – The crypto market is currently in a “Fear” state, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 26, which is limiting enthusiasm for altcoins like PYTH.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Concerns (Bearish Impact)

What’s happening:
In May 2025, a large batch of 2.13 billion PYTH tokens (worth about $212 million at current prices) will become available. Although this is still over a year away, markets often start reacting months in advance to such big token releases.

Why it matters:

• When more tokens enter circulation, prices can drop if demand doesn’t increase at the same pace.
• PYTH’s price has already fallen 25% over the past 30 days, showing some early selling pressure.
• Keep an eye on wallet activity of early token holders like the team and venture capital investors, as their selling could impact prices further.

2. Technical Challenges (Bearish Bias)

What’s happening:
PYTH’s price is below its 7-day SMA ($0.1018) and 30-day SMA ($0.1095), which usually indicates short-term downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.34, suggesting the token is neither overbought nor oversold but leaning toward oversold.

Why it matters:

• The price faces immediate resistance at $0.1041. If it breaks above this level, it could signal a potential rebound.
• If the price falls below $0.0975 (a key Fibonacci retracement level), it might lead to a deeper price correction.

3. Market Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

What’s happening:
The overall crypto market is in a “Fear” phase, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 26. Bitcoin dominance is high at 59.27%, meaning investors prefer Bitcoin and stablecoins over smaller altcoins like PYTH.

Why it matters:

• Investors are more cautious and less willing to invest in mid-sized tokens.
• PYTH’s 24-hour trading volume dropped slightly by 0.3% to $33.9 million, indicating lower liquidity and interest.

Conclusion

PYTH’s recent price drop is driven by concerns about the upcoming token unlock, technical resistance levels, and a cautious market environment. While PYTH’s partnerships with U.S. government data providers (such as GDP data feeds) offer strong long-term value, short-term risks are currently weighing on the token.

What to watch: Will PYTH manage to climb back above its 7-day SMA at $0.1018 and stabilize, or will worries about the May 2025 token unlock lead to more selling?

What could affect the price of PYTH?

Pyth Network faces a mix of positive institutional developments and potential risks from token supply increases.

1. Institutional Growth (Positive) – The U.S. government’s use of Pyth as a data source for GDP shows growing trust and legitimacy.
2. Token Unlocks (Negative) – A large portion (58%) of PYTH tokens will become available in May 2025, which could lead to price drops.
3. Technical Outlook (Neutral) – The price is testing a key resistance level at $0.127, which will influence short-term price direction.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Institutional Adoption & Phase 2 Roadmap (Positive Impact)

Summary: Pyth’s Phase 2 focuses on serving the institutional market for financial data, which is worth over $50 billion. They plan to offer subscription services for risk assessment and regulatory compliance tools. A major boost came from the U.S. Department of Commerce partnering with Pyth in August 2025 to publish GDP and other economic data directly on the blockchain. This announcement doubled PYTH’s price.

Why it matters: Even capturing a small slice (1%) of this huge institutional market could bring in over $500 million in yearly revenue (the_smart_ape). This positions PYTH as a key infrastructure player bridging traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), potentially increasing demand for its governance and fee-paying tokens.

2. Token Unlocks & Supply Dynamics (Negative Impact)

Summary: On May 20, 2025, 2.13 billion PYTH tokens (worth about $333 million) will be unlocked, representing 58% of the circulating supply. Additional unlocks are scheduled for 2026 and 2027. Historically, such large unlocks have led to price drops, including a 21% weekly decline before the May 2025 unlock.

Why it matters: This large influx of tokens could lead to selling pressure from early investors and data publishers, which might outweigh the positive news. However, if institutional buyers absorb this supply—such as through exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—the negative impact could be lessened. It’s important to watch token movements on exchanges after the unlock date.

3. Technical Structure & Market Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

Summary: As of November 2025, PYTH is trading at $0.10, below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $0.131. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the MACD suggests potential upward momentum, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44 indicates weak buying strength. The Fibonacci retracement points to $0.127 as a key resistance level.

Why it matters: If PYTH’s price breaks above $0.127, it could trigger a 25% rally toward $0.16. If it fails, the price might retest the low of $0.085 seen earlier in 2025. Overall market sentiment is cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 26, signaling fear and limiting speculative buying.

Conclusion

PYTH’s future price depends on how well it balances growing institutional adoption with the risks from large token unlocks. The U.S. government partnership and Phase 2 expansion could significantly increase its real-world use beyond decentralized finance. However, the large token unlock in May 2025 remains a short-term challenge. Watch for on-chain data usage and whether institutional investors accumulate tokens after the unlock to gauge PYTH’s outlook.

What are people saying about PYTH?

The conversation around Pyth Network (PYTH) is focused on growing institutional use, price swings, and competition among data providers. Here’s what’s trending:

1. U.S. government data deal drives a 70% price jump
2. Phase 2 aims at a $50 billion market data industry
3. Concerns about token unlocks remain despite price recovery

Deep Dive

1. @the_smart_ape: Institutional Growth Momentum (Positive)

"Capturing just 1% of the $50 billion market data sector means $500 million in yearly revenue. The U.S. Commerce Department deal makes PYTH a key part of the infrastructure."
– @the_smart_ape (56.6K followers · 69K+ impressions · 2025-09-05 07:59 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is good news for PYTH as it shifts focus from decentralized finance (DeFi) to traditional finance (TradFi). The token’s usefulness grows through subscriptions, buybacks, and governance roles.

2. @RealAllinCrypto: On-Chain GDP Data Boost (Positive)

"PYTH surged 92% after teaming up with the U.S. Commerce Department to publish GDP and economic data on nine blockchains. LINK only rose 4%."
– @RealAllinCrypto (40.2K followers · 22.8K+ impressions · 2025-08-29 02:43 UTC)
View original post
What this means: The partnership with regulators is driving positive momentum. However, technical indicators suggest the price might pause or pull back in the short term.

3. @Cipher2X: Token Unlock Concerns (Cautious)

"2.13 billion PYTH tokens worth $313 million will unlock in May 2025, making up 58% of circulating supply. Past unlocks often lead to 20-30% price drops."
– @Cipher2X (47.6K followers · 7.2K+ impressions · 2025-09-04 15:51 UTC)
View original post
What this means: There could be downward pressure if holders sell after unlocks. Still, PYTH’s fully diluted valuation ($1.1 billion) is much lower than Chainlink’s $23 billion, suggesting room for growth.

Conclusion

The overall outlook for PYTH is optimistic but cautious. Institutional deals like the U.S. government partnership and integrations with platforms like Rhea and xStocks, along with targeting a $50 billion market, balance concerns about token unlocks and competition. Keep an eye on the valuation comparison with LINK and the May 2026 token unlock. PYTH’s success in monetizing traditional finance partnerships could change the game for data oracles.

What is the latest news about PYTH?

Pyth Network is gaining momentum as it partners with major players and benefits from positive market sentiment. Here are the key updates:

1. Top Bull Run Pick (November 3, 2025) – Recognized as a leading crypto for the 2025 market surge due to its strength in real-time data.
2. B2C2 Market Data Integration (October 21, 2025) – Added pricing data from B2C2, a major provider of crypto liquidity for institutions.
3. Kalshi Prediction Markets Partnership (October 13, 2025) – Joined forces to stream regulated event data on over 100 blockchains.

Deep Dive

1. Top Bull Run Pick (November 3, 2025)

Overview: Pyth Network was featured in a Cointribune analysis as a key player for the expected 2025 market upswing. It holds a 32.5% share of oracle usage in the first quarter of 2025, showing its dominance in providing real-time data. Additionally, a large token release (2.13 billion PYTH tokens) is scheduled for May 2025, which could affect the token’s supply.
What this means: Being called a “bull run essential” shows strong confidence in Pyth’s role in decentralized finance (DeFi) and institutional tokenization. However, the upcoming token release could cause price swings if demand doesn’t keep up with the new supply.

2. B2C2 Market Data Integration (October 21, 2025)

Overview: B2C2, a top institutional liquidity provider, has joined Pyth’s network to supply real-time trade data. This improves transparency for cryptocurrency, stock, and foreign exchange markets (Finance Magnates).
What this means: Access to B2C2’s pricing data makes Pyth more attractive for high-value DeFi uses like derivatives trading and lending, where speed and accuracy are crucial.

3. Kalshi Prediction Markets Partnership (October 13, 2025)

Overview: Pyth integrated data from Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This allows event outcomes—such as elections or economic trends—to be traded on blockchain through Pyth’s oracle (Cryptobriefing).
What this means: This partnership connects traditional finance event markets with DeFi, opening new opportunities for PYTH in structured financial products and risk management tools, while strengthening its data offerings.

Conclusion

Pyth Network is establishing itself as a key data bridge across markets by forming strategic partnerships with B2C2 and Kalshi and benefiting from positive industry trends. Although PYTH’s price has dropped 25% over the past month, upcoming events like the May 2025 token release and growing institutional use will be important to watch. The big question is whether PYTH’s strong utility and token design can handle the pressure from new tokens entering the market as it grows within the $50 billion+ market data industry.

What is expected in the development of PYTH?

Pyth Network’s roadmap is focused on growing its use by institutions, expanding the types of data it offers, and increasing the usefulness of its token, PYTH.

1. Institutional Subscription Launch (Q1 2026) – Introducing paid premium data services aimed at a $50 billion+ market.
2. Token Unlock Event (May 2026) – 2.13 billion PYTH tokens will become available, affecting supply and demand.
3. Asian Market Expansion (2026) – Adding more Asian financial assets, building on existing Hong Kong stock data.
4. Governance Upgrades (2026) – Improving how token holders can vote on revenue sharing and token use.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Subscription Launch (Q1 2026)

What’s happening: Pyth is shifting from serving decentralized finance (DeFi) users to targeting large institutions like banks and trading firms. They plan to offer premium data feeds through a subscription service (Cipher2X). This data will support things like risk management, trade settlements, and regulatory compliance. The goal is to capture about 1% of a $50 billion+ market, which could mean $500 million in revenue.

Why it matters: If institutions adopt these subscriptions, it could create steady income linked to the PYTH token, which is good for its value. However, competition from established players like Chainlink and the slow pace of onboarding big companies are risks to watch.

2. Token Unlock Event (May 2026)

What’s happening: In May 2026, 2.13 billion PYTH tokens (about 21% of the total supply) will be unlocked and become available for trading. This follows a previous unlock in May 2025 that doubled the circulating supply (Millionero).

Why it matters: This could cause short-term price drops due to increased selling pressure. But in the long run, if these tokens are used for staking or paying for data subscriptions, the impact might be neutral. Keep an eye on governance decisions that could help reduce token dilution.

3. Asian Market Expansion (2026)

What’s happening: After adding Hong Kong stock data in mid-2025, Pyth plans to cover over $5 trillion in Asian equities (Pyth Network). They’re partnering with exchanges like xStocks to boost liquidity for tokenized assets.

Why it matters: This expansion could increase adoption in real-world asset markets. However, regulatory challenges in countries like Japan and Singapore might slow progress.

4. Governance Upgrades (2026)

What’s happening: The decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) behind Pyth will vote on new ways to use the PYTH token, including paying for data subscriptions and sharing revenue with token holders (the_smart_ape).

Why it matters: If these governance changes improve token demand and reduce supply (for example, through buybacks), it could be positive for PYTH’s value. Success depends on active participation from institutional holders in DAO decisions.

Conclusion

Pyth Network’s roadmap balances ambitious moves into institutional markets and Asia with careful token supply management. The May 2026 token unlock is a key event that could cause price swings.

Will Pyth’s subscription service challenge established data providers like Bloomberg and Refinitiv, or will regulatory hurdles limit its growth?

What updates are there in the PYTH code base?

Pyth Network (PYTH) has rolled out important updates that improve security, scalability, and support for institutional users.

1. Entropy Smart Contract Verification (October 28, 2025) – Introduced rewards for developers who verify on-chain randomness contracts across different blockchain networks.
2. Entropy V2 Upgrade (July 31, 2025) – Enhanced gas limits, error handling, and callback functions to better support decentralized applications (dApps).
3. RFQ Integration with xStocks (July 7, 2025) – Enabled precise price quotes for tokenized stocks through Pyth Express Relay, improving trading efficiency.

Deep Dive

1. Entropy Smart Contract Verification (October 28, 2025)

What happened: Pyth Data Association is encouraging developers to audit and verify Entropy’s smart contracts on various blockchain networks by offering rewards of 1,000 PYTH tokens per verified chain. This helps make the system more transparent and secure.
Why it matters: Entropy powers on-chain randomness used in applications like NFT minting and prediction markets. Verifying these contracts reduces the risk of bugs or manipulation, which builds trust in Pyth’s technology—especially important for decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming projects that rely on secure randomness.
(Source)

2. Entropy V2 Upgrade (July 31, 2025)

What happened: The randomness engine was upgraded to allow developers to set custom gas limits (which control transaction costs), get clearer error messages, and use a new keeper network that speeds up responses. This supports more complex functions like multi-step NFT drops and makes integration easier.
Why it matters: While this update doesn’t add new token features, it improves the performance and reliability of existing services. Over 10 million requests have already been processed by apps like Infinex and Megapot, showing growing adoption.
(Source)

3. RFQ Integration with xStocks (July 7, 2025)

What happened: Pyth Express Relay’s Request for Quote (RFQ) system was connected with xStocks, allowing market makers to provide exact price quotes for tokenized stocks such as Tesla and Apple. This reduces price slippage and impermanent loss during trades.
Why it matters: This expands Pyth’s use beyond typical crypto assets into traditional finance (TradFi) style instruments. It supports platforms like Kamino Finance and Jupiter Exchange by improving capital efficiency and aligns with Pyth’s goal to meet institutional demand for reliable market data.
(Source)

Conclusion

Pyth Network’s recent updates focus on strengthening security through contract audits, improving scalability with technical upgrades, and building infrastructure suited for institutional users. These enhancements position Pyth as a key oracle provider bridging traditional finance and decentralized finance. The big question remains: can Pyth’s technical advancements help it surpass competitors like Chainlink in winning over institutional clients?