What could affect the price of S?
Sonic is at a critical point where big institutional investments and ecosystem growth are balancing against the risk of token dilution.
- U.S. Expansion & ETFs – A $150 million push from institutions with plans involving Nasdaq and ETFs (positive if successful, but dilution risk exists)
- Fee Monetization Adoption – Developers get 90% of fees, which could attract more builders (depends on increased usage)
- Token Unlocks & Burn Mechanics – 5.02% of tokens unlock on Sept 9, while new fee burn rules destroy 50% of certain fees (a supply tug-of-war)
Deep Dive
1. U.S. Institutional Strategy (Mixed Effects)
Overview:
In August, Sonic’s community approved minting 633.9 million new S tokens (about $196.5 million) to fund a U.S. subsidiary called Sonic USA, a Nasdaq PIPE vehicle, and an ETF. This aims to bring in institutional money but increases the total token supply by 14%, which could dilute existing holders. To balance this, Sonic now burns 50% of transaction fees that are not part of Fee Monetization.
What this means:
- Positive: If the ETF is approved (expected by Q4 2025), it could attract large-scale investments similar to what Bitcoin ETFs have done, boosting Sonic’s credibility.
- Negative: The immediate unlocking of 150 million S tokens on September 9 (about 5% of total supply) could put downward pressure on the price if demand doesn’t keep up.
2. Developer Incentives & Fee Monetization (A Growth Driver)
Overview:
Sonic’s Fee Monetization (FeeM) program allows developers to earn 90% of the fees generated by their decentralized apps (dApps). This is a strong incentive compared to Ethereum, where developers earn nothing from fees, or Solana, where validators take 50%. Recent partnerships, like integrating Covalent’s real-time data APIs, aim to fix delays that previously slowed down decentralized finance (DeFi) bots.
What this means:
- If developers adopt FeeM widely, Sonic could see growth similar to Fantom’s 2021 boom, when total value locked (TVL) hit $14 billion.
- Key numbers to watch include TVL, which is currently $367 million, and daily active users, tracked by platforms like Dune Analytics.
3. Market Sentiment & Short Squeeze Potential (Neutral)
Overview:
Despite Sonic’s price dropping 69% this year, data shows an increase in short positions (bets that the price will fall). The token has strong support between $0.28 and $0.30, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30.98 suggests it’s oversold.
What this means:
- If Sonic’s price breaks above $0.35 (a key technical level), it could trigger short sellers to buy back tokens quickly, pushing the price up.
- On the other hand, if Bitcoin’s dominance in the market rises above 57.8%, fear could cause more selling pressure.
Conclusion
Sonic’s future price depends on how well it can attract institutional investors while managing the risks of increasing token supply. The Fee Monetization program could be a game-changer if it drives developer growth. The upcoming token unlock on September 9 and progress on the ETF front are important to watch—will institutional buying offset retail selling?
What are people saying about S?
The Sonic community is divided between hopeful optimism and cautious realism. Here’s what’s currently trending:
- $10 price hopes – Excitement from retail investors meets technical challenges.
- U.S. market expansion – A $150 million traditional finance push is approved, but new token issuance could dilute value.
- Airdrop buzz – Incentives are driving activity, though some selling pressure remains.
Deep Dive
1. @SpacePoernchen: "$S to $10" rally cry bullish
“Let’s make Sonic Great Again and pump it to $10”
– @SpacePoernchen (3.2K followers · 12K impressions · 2025-09-16 13:23 UTC)
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What this means: This shows strong enthusiasm from retail investors willing to take big risks. However, Sonic currently trades at $0.24, down 69% from its all-time high. To reach $10, the price would need to increase 40 times, which is unlikely without significant growth in the Sonic ecosystem. Currently, the total value locked (TVL) in Sonic’s network has dropped 67% (The Defiant), making such a price jump unrealistic.
2. @SonicLabs: $150M U.S. expansion mixed
A recently approved proposal allocates $50 million to exchange-traded funds (ETFs), $100 million to a Nasdaq private investment in public equity (PIPE), and issues 150 million new $S tokens.
– Governance passed with 99.99% approval (2025-09-01)
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What this means: This move is positive for Sonic’s credibility with institutional investors but could hurt the token’s value. Issuing 150 million new tokens increases supply by about 4.7%, which may put downward pressure on the price, especially since the token has already dropped 21% in the past month.
3. @CryptoUsopp: 2.5M $S per campaign snapshot bullish
“First snapshot: Sept 18… $820K rewards at current price”
– 89K impressions · 2025-08-29 03:50 UTC
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What this means: In the short term, this is positive because users are accumulating $S tokens to qualify for the upcoming airdrop. However, after the snapshot date, some holders may sell their tokens, which could lead to price drops. This pattern was seen in June when Sonic’s price fell 22% after a U.S. airdrop (CCN).
Conclusion
The outlook for Sonic is mixed. Developers praise its technology capable of 400,000 transactions per second (TPS) and its FeeM incentives, while traders watch the $0.30 to $0.45 price resistance zone closely. The key event to watch is the September 18 airdrop snapshot—if the price breaks above $0.25 with increasing trading volume, it could signal upward momentum. If not, the price might revisit the June low of $0.24. The big question remains: can Sonic’s move into traditional finance offset the ongoing decline in its decentralized finance (DeFi) TVL?
What is the latest news about S?
Sonic is working through changes in its ecosystem and token setup, balancing promising new partnerships with some declines in total value locked (TVL). Here are the key updates:
- SegaSwap Funding (September 23, 2025) – Raised $10 million to grow Sonic’s decentralized finance (DeFi) liquidity and develop new capital markets focused on user attention.
- Covalent Integration (September 9, 2025) – Enabled real-time blockchain data access to improve automated trading and compliance tools.
- Tokenomics Update (September 8, 2025) – Increased token supply by 14%, balanced by new token-burning mechanisms to reduce overall supply over time.
In-Depth Look
1. SegaSwap Funding (September 23, 2025)
What happened:
SegaSwap raised $10 million in seed funding, led by Sonic SVM and 10K Ventures, to expand Sonic’s DeFi ecosystem. The funds will increase liquidity through open pools and a two-level system: main pools for stable assets and “attention pools” for higher-risk investments. SegaSwap also introduced SegaSOL, a token for liquid staking rewards, and plans to add Sega Points, which could be used for future giveaways.
Why it matters:
This is a positive development for Sonic, as it strengthens liquidity and encourages more users to participate. However, the “attention pools” carry higher risk, which could lead to bigger losses if the market turns down. (Finance Magnates)
2. Covalent Integration (September 9, 2025)
What happened:
Covalent integrated Sonic into its data services, allowing access to blockchain data in less than a second. This upgrade helps automated trading bots and compliance systems work faster and more reliably on Sonic’s network, which can handle 400,000 transactions per second.
Why it matters:
This infrastructure improvement is a good step toward scaling Sonic’s network. However, despite this upgrade, Sonic’s token price dropped to $0.3051 shortly after, reflecting broader market weakness. (Crypto.news)
3. Tokenomics Update (September 8, 2025)
What happened:
Sonic increased its circulating token supply by 14% (adding 633.9 million new tokens) to support expansion in the U.S., including plans linked to Nasdaq and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). To balance this increase, new token-burning rules were introduced, destroying between 5% and 50% of fees depending on the transaction type.
Why it matters:
In the short term, this supply increase can put downward pressure on the token price. But if the token burns successfully reduce supply over time, it could be positive in the long run. The community overwhelmingly supported these changes, with 99.98% approval, showing trust in Sonic’s institutional growth plans. (Crypto.news)
Conclusion
Sonic is making strong moves toward attracting institutional investors and improving its technology. However, challenges remain, including a 67% drop in total value locked since May and the risks from increasing token supply. The big question is whether the new token-burning system and faster data tools will be enough to offset supply growth and help Sonic thrive in the last quarter of the year.
What is expected in the development of S?
Sonic’s roadmap is focused on smart growth and rewarding its community:
- Entering the US Market (Q4 2025) – Launching a $50 million ETF, a $100 million Nasdaq PIPE, and setting up Sonic USA.
- Launching Fee Monetization (Q4 2025) – Developers will earn 90% of the network fees their apps generate.
- Expanding Multi-Chain Gateway (2026) – Building secure bridges to other blockchains beyond Ethereum.
- Distributing Sonic Gems (Q4 2025) – Giving out 30 million S tokens to apps that drive user activity.
In-Depth Look
1. Entering the US Market (Q4 2025)
What’s happening:
On August 31, 2025, a governance vote approved allocating 150 million S tokens (about $47 million) to create Sonic USA, a company based in Delaware. This move aims to attract institutional investors by launching a $50 million Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) and a $100 million Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) on Nasdaq (Binance News).
Why it matters:
This step boosts Sonic’s reputation and liquidity by connecting traditional finance with crypto. However, increasing the token supply by 14% could temporarily put downward pressure on prices.
2. Launching Fee Monetization (Q4 2025)
What’s happening:
Fee Monetization (FeeM) lets app developers keep 90% of the transaction fees their decentralized apps (dApps) generate on Sonic’s fast Ethereum-compatible blockchain.
Why it matters:
This encourages developers to build and stay on Sonic’s platform, helping the ecosystem grow. Plus, a 5% fee burn on these transactions could help reduce token inflation if many users adopt the system.
3. Expanding Multi-Chain Gateway (2026)
What’s happening:
Currently, Sonic’s secure bridge only works with Ethereum. The plan is to add support for other blockchains like Solana and Avalanche, allowing users to move assets directly without relying on outside services.
Why it matters:
This could increase liquidity and make Sonic more versatile. However, there are risks involved, such as ensuring security and getting enough users to adopt the new bridges.
4. Distributing Sonic Gems (Q4 2025)
What’s happening:
Season 1 of Sonic Gems will distribute about 30 million S tokens to apps that encourage user activity, based on factors like transaction volume and how often users return (Sonic Labs).
Why it matters:
This should boost short-term user engagement. But there’s a risk that some users might try to game the system by creating fake activity just to earn rewards.
Conclusion
Sonic’s roadmap aims to grow its presence in the US market while rewarding developers and users to strengthen its community. These efforts come at a time when Sonic’s market value is around $700 million, down 69% this year. The success of these plans will depend on how well they are executed and the overall mood in the crypto market.
Will FeeM’s fee-burning help balance out the token increase from the US expansion?
What updates are there in the S code base?
Sonic’s latest updates focus on better compatibility with Ethereum and improved performance.
- Pectra Upgrade Integration (August 12, 2025) – Sonic Testnet 2.1 now supports Ethereum’s newest protocol features.
- SonicVM Optimizations (August 12, 2025) – Enhancements to Sonic’s virtual machine make transactions faster and cheaper.
Deep Dive
1. Pectra Upgrade Integration (August 12, 2025)
Overview: Sonic Testnet 2.1 has been updated to work smoothly with Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade. This is a big step toward making Sonic more compatible with Ethereum and easier for developers to use.
The upgrade includes 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), which bring improvements like better staking options and reduced transaction costs (gas optimizations). This means developers can now run Ethereum-style smart contracts on Sonic while benefiting from its high speed—handling over 400,000 transactions per second.
Why it matters: This is good news for Sonic because it makes it easier for Ethereum developers to create fast, efficient decentralized apps (dApps) on Sonic. This could attract more projects and increase the amount of money flowing into the Sonic network. (Source)
2. SonicVM Optimizations (August 12, 2025)
Overview: Sonic’s custom virtual machine, called SonicVM, has been improved to lower the cost of running transactions and to handle more transactions at once.
These upgrades focus on processing multiple transactions in parallel and better managing memory. As a result, transactions can be finalized in less than a second, even when the network is busy. Developers also now have access to real-time blockchain data through Covalent’s APIs, which is important for applications like high-frequency trading bots and AI tools.
Why it matters: This update strengthens Sonic’s technical capabilities, but its impact depends on developers using these improvements to build better user experiences. So, it’s a neutral development for now. (Source)
Conclusion
Sonic is focusing on aligning with Ethereum and boosting raw performance, aiming to be a fast and efficient alternative for running Ethereum-compatible applications. The big question is whether these upgrades will lead to real growth in Sonic’s ecosystem once the mainnet is fully launched.
Why did the price of S go up?
Sonic (S) increased by 1.96% in the past 24 hours, breaking away from its downward trend over the last week (-15.6%) and month (-23%). This positive movement is driven by strong technical signals at key support levels, growth in its ecosystem through new partnerships, and the possibility of a short squeeze.
- Technical Bounce from Oversold Levels – The RSI near 30 suggests buyers are stepping in around the $0.24 support level.
- SegaSwap’s $10 Million Funding Boost – This investment strengthens Sonic SVM’s liquidity and draws more attention from capital markets.
- Potential Short Squeeze – Data shows an increase in short positions compared to long positions, which could lead to a rapid price increase if shorts are forced to cover.
Deep Dive
1. Technical Bounce from Key Support (Positive Signal)
Overview: Sonic’s price has stabilized near $0.24, close to important support levels identified by Fibonacci retracement ($0.226) and a pivot point ($0.237). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) values for 7 days (25.15) and 14 days (30.98) indicate the token is oversold, a condition that often leads to short-term price rebounds.
What this means: Traders may see this as a good buying opportunity, especially since the MACD histogram (-0.0065) shows that downward momentum is slowing. Holding above $0.237 could lead to testing the next resistance at $0.307, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
What to watch: If the price falls below $0.226, it would break the bullish setup and could push Sonic down to its yearly low of $0.15.
2. SegaSwap’s $10 Million Funding for Sonic SVM (Positive Impact)
Overview: On September 23, SegaSwap secured $10 million to grow Sonic SVM’s "attention capital markets." This platform allows developers to earn revenue by rewarding user engagement with tokens.
What this means: This funding enhances Sonic’s decentralized finance (DeFi) use cases by encouraging liquidity providers and developers with Sega Points, which might qualify for future airdrops. More activity on the platform could increase demand for Sonic tokens, as they are used for transaction fees and staking rewards.
What to watch: The adoption rate of SegaSwap’s two-tier liquidity pools and how popular the attention-based rewards become.
3. Increasing Short Positions & Short Squeeze Risk (Mixed Outlook)
Overview: Derivatives data indicates that short positions are growing compared to long positions (Crypto.news). While this trend can be bearish, if Sonic’s price rises above $0.30, short sellers might rush to close their positions, potentially causing a sharp price increase.
What this means: The recent 24-hour price increase happened alongside a 73.8% jump in trading volume ($69.4 million), showing strong speculative interest. However, it’s important to watch open interest and funding rates for confirmation of this trend.
What to watch: A sustained price move above the 24-hour high of $0.31 would confirm growing bullish momentum.
Conclusion
Sonic’s recent price rebound is driven by a combination of oversold technical indicators, ecosystem growth through partnerships like SegaSwap, and speculative activity in derivatives markets. While the SegaSwap partnership provides solid fundamental support, Sonic still faces challenges from a broader downtrend, including a 67% drop in total value locked (TVL) since May and inflationary tokenomics.
Key points to monitor: Can Sonic maintain support at $0.24, and will the SegaSwap integration lead to increased on-chain activity?