Why did the price of BTC go up?
Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 0.87% in the last 24 hours, matching a similar 0.87% rise in the total cryptocurrency market value. Although this is a modest gain, it highlights growing interest from large investors and progress in crypto regulations. Here are the main points:
- Regulatory Progress – Advances in U.S. crypto laws and proposals for a Bitcoin reserve (Positive)
- ETF Investments – Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $5 billion added in assets in 24 hours, showing strong institutional buying (Positive)
- Technical Signals – Bitcoin’s price stays above important averages with mixed momentum indicators (Mixed)
Detailed Overview
1. Regulatory Progress (Positive Impact)
Summary: Recent hearings in the U.S. Congress on the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act have moved forward. Industry experts like Michael Saylor are pushing for clear rules on how crypto assets are held and listed. Additionally, a bipartisan group introduced the BITCOIN Act, which aims to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Bitget).
Why it matters: Clear regulations reduce uncertainty for big investors, making Bitcoin a safer asset to hold. The proposal to build a federal Bitcoin reserve (targeting 1 million BTC over five years) would connect Bitcoin directly to government financial policy. Historically, when laws like these make progress, Bitcoin’s price tends to rise 5–15% within a few weeks.
What to watch: Senate committee votes on the GENIUS Act are expected by September 20.
2. ETF Investments (Positive Impact)
Summary: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.4 billion in new investments on September 16, pushing total assets under management (AUM) to $150.58 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone added $524 million, its biggest daily inflow since July (Bitget).
Why it matters: ETFs now control about 6% of all Bitcoin, creating steady buying demand. The $1.4 billion inflow in 24 hours equals roughly 12,000 BTC, which more than offsets the daily amount of Bitcoin miners add to the market (about 900 BTC).
3. Technical Signals (Mixed Impact)
Summary: Bitcoin’s price remains above its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $112,679 and its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $105,646. The MACD indicator (+743) shows positive momentum, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.95 is approaching levels that often signal overbought conditions.
Why it matters: The MACD suggests Bitcoin could continue rising, but the RSI warns of possible short-term pullbacks of 3–5% in 2025. Immediate support is at $115,173 (based on Fibonacci retracement), with resistance at $117,614 (the high on September 16).
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent gain reflects a mix of hopeful regulatory developments, strong ETF-driven demand, and solid technical support. While short-term indicators suggest some risk of price consolidation, ongoing institutional buying and favorable legislation provide a positive outlook.
Key point to watch: Will Bitcoin close above $116,500 (the August high) to confirm a breakout toward $120,000?
What could affect the price of BTC?
Bitcoin’s price is caught between strong support from big investors and unpredictable moves by large holders, known as whales.
- Regulatory drivers – New U.S. Bitcoin reserve plans and ETF investments
- Whale activity – Risks of profit-taking versus strategic buying
- Technology changes – Potential threats from quantum computing and upgrades improving security
Deep Dive
1. Institutional Adoption & Policy Changes (Positive Outlook)
Overview: The proposed BITCOIN Act aims to establish a U.S. strategic reserve of 1 million BTC without increasing the budget (Bitget). Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $6.6 billion in investments over five weeks (CoinMarketCap). Additionally, the CLARITY Act could provide clearer regulations, reducing uncertainty for institutional investors.
What this means: These developments could lead to steady buying from ETFs and possibly state-level Bitcoin reserves, which would reduce the available supply. This is important since 99% of Bitcoin is expected to be mined by 2035. However, progress depends on bipartisan political support, and delays could slow momentum.
2. Whale Liquidity Swings (Potential Downside)
Overview: The Exchange Whale Ratio reached 0.50 in August 2025, meaning about 12,000 BTC moved to exchanges weekly. A previously inactive whale recently deposited 40,000 BTC (worth $4.8 billion) through Galaxy Digital (CoinMarketCap), while some whales have opened leveraged positions in Ethereum.
What this means: Large sell-offs near all-time highs could trigger a chain reaction of forced selling. The $113,000 price level is a key support; if it breaks, Bitcoin might test the 200-day moving average around $101,700. Still, long-term holders are holding near record levels, indicating strong confidence.
3. Technological Turning Points (Mixed Effects)
Overview: BlackRock highlighted the potential threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin’s security in SEC filings (CoinMarketCap). On the other hand, StarkWare has developed a zero-knowledge proof system that allows Bitcoin verification on mobile devices without needing full nodes (Bit2Me).
What this means: Quantum computing risks are mostly theoretical and expected after 2030, but upgrades like SNARKs or hard forks could address these concerns. Meanwhile, zero-knowledge proof technology could improve user experience, encouraging more everyday users to adopt Bitcoin, balancing out institutional influence.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s future depends on whether ETF investments and supportive policies can outweigh selling pressure from whales and potential technology risks. The $113,000 to $127,000 price range will be a critical test for institutional investors. Will Bitcoin’s price swings calm down as custodians take over liquidity from exchanges? Keep an eye on the Spot/Perps volume ratio, currently at 0.41, for insights.
What are people saying about BTC?
Bitcoin discussions show a mix of optimism and caution. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $137,000 based on a specific price pattern
- Big institutions are buying more Bitcoin through ETFs and company reserves
- Some warning signs suggest Bitcoin might drop to $110,000
- Social media shows everyday investors are worried while large holders keep buying
Deep Dive
1. Harmonic Pattern Points to $137,000 (Source: @johnmorganFL)
Bitcoin is showing a price pattern called a harmonic pattern, which targets $137,000. If Bitcoin reaches this level, it could confirm a strong upward trend continuing into 2025. However, if Bitcoin falls below $117,000, this positive outlook might no longer hold.
What this means: This is generally a good sign for Bitcoin, as harmonic patterns often signal big price moves upward when confirmed. But watch the $117,000 support level closely.
2. Institutions Are Buying More Bitcoin (Source: @VirtualBacon0x)
Large financial firms like BlackRock added $340 million worth of Bitcoin to their ETFs recently. Another company, Metaplanet, bought over 1,200 BTC. Altogether, companies now hold about 6% of all Bitcoin available.
What this means: This is positive for Bitcoin because institutional buying reduces the amount available for others to buy, which can push prices up. However, when a few big players hold a lot, it can increase risks if they decide to sell suddenly.
3. Warning Signs of a Possible Drop (Source: @cryptoWZRD_)
If Bitcoin closes below $110,500 on a daily basis, it could confirm a bearish trend. Technical indicators like RSI and MACD show weakening momentum even though Bitcoin’s price is near its all-time high.
What this means: This suggests Bitcoin might face a price correction soon. However, ongoing buying through spot ETFs (about $2.9 billion weekly) might help balance out selling pressure from other markets.
4. Retail Investors Are Nervous While Whales Accumulate (Source: Santiment)
There were 231 new wallets holding 10 or more BTC created recently, while about 37,000 smaller holders sold their Bitcoin. This pattern of big holders buying while smaller investors sell was last seen during a market crash in April.
What this means: This is a mixed signal. Large holders accumulating Bitcoin often precede price rallies, but widespread selling by smaller investors could limit gains unless ETF inflows continue to support the market.
Conclusion
The outlook for Bitcoin is mixed right now. On one hand, technical patterns and institutional buying suggest potential for price gains. On the other hand, some technical warnings and nervous retail investors point to possible short-term risks. The key price range to watch is between $110,000 and $117,000. Holding above this range could push Bitcoin toward the $137,000 target, while falling below might test support near $103,000. Upcoming events like the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 17 could influence Bitcoin’s direction by affecting overall market risk appetite.
What is the latest news about BTC?
Bitcoin is balancing growing regulatory attention and increased interest from big financial players as its price stabilizes after recent gains.
- Strategic Reserve Proposal (September 15, 2025) – U.S. industry leaders suggest a plan to acquire 1 million BTC without increasing federal spending.
- Regulatory Hearings Increase (September 16, 2025) – Congress debates new laws to clarify rules around Bitcoin custody and compliance.
- Custody Competition Heats Up (September 16, 2025) – Big institutions turn to trusted custodians like Coinbase and Galaxy Digital for secure Bitcoin holdings.
In-Depth Look
1. Strategic Reserve Proposal (September 15, 2025)
Summary:
A group of 18 top executives, including Michael Saylor and Tom Lee, presented the BITCOIN Act to Congress. The plan aims for the U.S. government to build a reserve of 1 million Bitcoin over five years without extra federal spending. Ideas include using surplus tariff funds and reassessing Treasury gold certificates to finance the purchase.
Why it matters:
This shows growing political support for Bitcoin as a valuable national asset. While it’s not guaranteed to happen, bipartisan interest in a Bitcoin reserve could create steady, long-term demand. (Bitget)
2. Regulatory Hearings Increase (September 16, 2025)
Summary:
Congress held hearings on two key bills: the GENIUS Act, which focuses on updating exchange rules, and the CLARITY Act, which aims to better define how tokens are classified under securities laws. Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy and Peter Thiel from Marathon testified. The GENIUS Act would enforce stricter custody rules for institutions, while the CLARITY Act seeks to clear up legal uncertainties around tokens.
Why it matters:
Clearer regulations could reduce market swings caused by policy uncertainty. However, tougher rules might challenge smaller exchanges, potentially giving larger institutions more control. (Bitget)
3. Custody Competition Heats Up (September 16, 2025)
Summary:
More institutions are trusting custodians like Coinbase, which holds 80% of BTC and ETH ETF assets, and Galaxy Digital, which manages a $1.8 billion Bitcoin treasury. Traditional banks such as BNY Mellon, which oversees $52 trillion in assets, are also expanding their crypto services.
Why it matters:
This trend shows that institutions are becoming more sophisticated in managing Bitcoin, but it also risks concentrating Bitcoin ownership in fewer hands. The move away from retail-driven centralized exchanges (CEX) signals a shift in how the market operates. (Gate.com)
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s future is shaped by two forces: growing institutional adoption through reserve proposals and ETF inflows, and tighter regulations that could limit retail investor participation. With Bitcoin dominance at 57.5% and altcoins gaining momentum (Altcoin Season Index at 70), the key question is whether institutional demand will outweigh regulatory challenges. Keep an eye on upcoming Senate votes on the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, as well as earnings reports from custody providers, for clues on where the market is headed.
What is expected in the development of BTC?
Bitcoin’s roadmap blends technical improvements, growing institutional use, and key regulatory developments.
- sBTC Mainnet Launch (Q3 2025) – A new way to use Bitcoin in decentralized finance (DeFi) through Stacks’ Layer 2 network.
- Block’s Proto Mining Chip (2025) – Introducing open-source Bitcoin mining hardware to reduce reliance on a few big manufacturers.
- Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Legislation (Late 2025) – U.S. plans to create a federal Bitcoin reserve to hold BTC officially.
- Botanix EVM Integration (Live) – Bringing smart contracts directly to Bitcoin with fast and low-cost transactions.
Deep Dive
1. sBTC Mainnet Launch (Q3 2025)
Overview: Stacks is launching “Satoshi Upgrades” to enable sBTC, a version of Bitcoin that can be used in decentralized finance without needing trusted middlemen (Stacks). This could unlock over $450 billion of inactive Bitcoin for earning yields through liquidity pools.
What this means: This is positive for Bitcoin’s usefulness, as sBTC may increase demand for Bitcoin as collateral. However, there are risks if the technology that keeps sBTC pegged to Bitcoin doesn’t work perfectly.
2. Block’s Proto Mining Chip (2025)
Overview: Block (formerly Square) plans to release Proto, an open-source Bitcoin mining chip, aiming to diversify mining hardware beyond dominant companies like Bitmain (Block).
What this means: This could improve Bitcoin’s security if miners adopt the chip, helping reduce the risk of mining centralization. The impact depends on how widely it’s used.
3. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Legislation (Late 2025)
Overview: The BITCOIN Act is a proposed U.S. law to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, supported by both political parties. It would allow the federal government to hold Bitcoin using budget-neutral methods like surplus tariffs (Bitwise).
What this means: This would boost Bitcoin’s credibility with institutions and governments, potentially making BTC a recognized treasury asset worldwide. Execution challenges remain.
4. Botanix EVM Integration (Live)
Overview: Botanix launched its Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible Layer 2 network in July 2025, enabling smart contracts on Bitcoin with quick 5-second transaction finality and very low fees around $0.02 (Botanix).
What this means: This expands Bitcoin’s use cases beyond just storing value, but success depends on whether Bitcoin users adopt programmable features.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s roadmap for 2025–2026 aims to grow its practical uses like DeFi and smart contracts while advancing institutional acceptance through policy and infrastructure. The key question is whether Layer 2 solutions and clearer regulations will overcome technical challenges and concerns about mining centralization. Watch for how sBTC adoption progresses and developments in U.S. legislation to gauge the future direction.
What updates are there in the BTC code base?
Bitcoin’s software is getting important updates that improve how it works and how developers build on it.
- OP_RETURN Expansion (October 2025) – The amount of data you can include in a single transaction output increases from 80 bytes to 4MB.
- Network Protocol Overhaul (May 2025) – Security improvements and better mining features are introduced.
- Build System Migration (May 2025) – The development process moves from Autotools to CMake, making it easier to build and maintain the software.
Deep Dive
1. OP_RETURN Expansion (October 2025)
What’s happening?
Bitcoin Core 30 removes the old 80-byte limit on OP_RETURN, a feature that lets users store data on the blockchain. Now, up to 4MB of data can be included per transaction output. This means you can store more complex information like documents or digital IDs directly on Bitcoin’s blockchain.
Why does it matter?
This change opens up new possibilities, like better timestamping services or Layer 2 solutions that build on Bitcoin. However, it also raises concerns about “blockchain bloat,” where the blockchain becomes larger and harder to manage. Some worry this could lead to spam or distract from Bitcoin’s main purpose as digital money.
Node operators (people running Bitcoin software) can still set their own limits if they want to keep the blockchain lean. By default, the system favors flexibility to encourage innovation.
What should you watch for?
Keep an eye on transaction fees and how miners respond after this update, as larger data sizes might affect network costs and performance. (Source)
2. Network Protocol Overhaul (May 2025)
What’s happening?
Bitcoin Core 29.0 brings several security and performance upgrades:
- Removed UPnP support, which had security risks.
- Improved handling of network connections (NAT-PMP and IPv6) so nodes connect more reliably.
- Dynamic assignment of Tor ports to avoid conflicts.
Mining also got better: a bug affecting block size was fixed, allowing miners to use the full 4 million weight units (WU) per block. A new setting lets miners reserve space for important transactions.
Why does it matter?
These upgrades make the Bitcoin network stronger and more efficient. Users benefit from more stable connections, and miners have more control over how blocks are built, which can improve transaction processing. (Source)
3. Build System Migration (May 2025)
What’s happening?
Bitcoin Core switched its build system from Autotools to CMake. This change simplifies building the software across different operating systems and makes managing dependencies easier.
Developers now need to use specific flags (like -DWITH_ZMQ=ON) to enable certain features that were previously turned on automatically.
Why does it matter?
For everyday users, this change doesn’t have a direct impact. But for developers, it makes contributing to Bitcoin easier and could speed up future improvements. (Source)
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s software is evolving to support new uses while keeping the network secure and decentralized. The OP_RETURN expansion shows the balance between adding new features and maintaining simplicity. Meanwhile, infrastructure upgrades strengthen the network’s foundation. As Bitcoin grows beyond just a payment system, it will be interesting to see how developers keep consensus and guide its future.