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What could affect the price of BTC?

Bitcoin’s price is balancing between strong interest from big investors and broader economic uncertainties.

  1. ETF Inflows & Regulatory Delays – Over $6.6 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs since April, but a U.S. government shutdown is delaying important decisions.
  2. Whale Activity – Big Bitcoin holders are showing mixed behavior: some are buying more, while others are cashing in profits.
  3. Technical Signals – Bitcoin is showing positive momentum above $114,000, but high trading activity in derivatives suggests possible price swings.

In-Depth Look

1. Institutional Demand & Regulatory Risks (Mixed Effects)

Overview:
Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have attracted more than $6.6 billion in investments over the past five weeks (CoinShares). For example, BlackRock’s IBIT fund holds 746,000 BTC, worth about $88 billion. However, the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 2, 2025, is delaying key economic reports like inflation and jobs data, as well as the SEC’s decisions on other cryptocurrency ETFs. This creates uncertainty in the market.

What this means:
Demand from ETFs helps keep Bitcoin’s price stable by soaking up available supply. But if regulatory delays continue, it could slow down price growth. Historically, government shutdowns have had mixed effects on Bitcoin’s price: it rose 14% during the 2013 shutdown but fell 6% in 2018.

2. Whale Accumulation vs. Profit-Taking (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
Large Bitcoin holders, often called “whales,” who own between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, have added 218,570 BTC since March (Santiment). Meanwhile, short-term holders have taken about $3.2 billion in profits since April. One long-dormant whale moved 330 BTC (worth $39 million) after 12 years, but these coins haven’t been sent to exchanges yet.

What this means:
The buying by long-term whales suggests confidence in Bitcoin reaching above $120,000. However, profit-taking near recent highs around $118,000 could lead to short-term price dips.

3. Technical Momentum & Liquidation Risks (Bullish Bias)

Overview:
Bitcoin has climbed back above its 100-day moving average at $114,000 and is facing resistance between $120,000 and $124,000, based on technical analysis tools like Fibonacci extensions. At the same time, derivatives trading is at a record high with $35.4 billion in open interest. This means there’s a risk that if Bitcoin falls below $112,000, about $1.24 billion in leveraged long positions could be forced to sell, causing sharp price drops.

What this means:
If Bitcoin can hold above $120,000, it could push higher toward $130,000 to $135,000. But the high level of leveraged trading makes the market vulnerable to sudden sell-offs.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s near-term direction depends on whether strong ETF inflows can outweigh economic uncertainties and profit-taking by large holders. The $112,000 to $114,000 price range is a key support zone—holding this level suggests the price may continue rising, while falling below it could lead to a drop toward $105,000. The big question is: will ETF investments pick up again after the government reopens, or will regulatory delays limit Bitcoin’s upside?


What are people saying about BTC?

Bitcoin conversations are swinging between big price predictions and warnings of downturns. Here’s the quick summary:

  1. Price predictions clash – Some say Bitcoin will hit a $175,000 floor, while others warn the current rally might be the last.
  2. Big investors tug-of-war – Companies like Metaplanet are buying up Bitcoin, while some early holders are selling.
  3. Developers debate – Bitcoin’s core developers are divided on technical limits, especially about how much extra data can be added to transactions as newer technologies push for faster speeds.

Deep Dive

1. @Burning_Forest: 2025 Price Forecast – Bearish Outlook

“Bitcoin price prediction for 2025: Top $175K / 2027 bottom $65K”
– @Burning_Forest (11.2K followers · 38K impressions · 2025-07-25 17:50 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This forecast suggests Bitcoin’s price will peak around $175,000 in 2025 but then drop to about $65,000 by 2027. It’s based on a pattern where Bitcoin goes through cycles of rising and falling prices every few years. Investors should be cautious after the excitement around the 2025 halving event (when Bitcoin’s new supply is cut in half).

2. @BitcoinMagazine: Big Companies Buying Bitcoin – Bullish Signal

Metaplanet purchased 775 BTC (worth about $93 million) in August, adding to Strategy’s huge Bitcoin holdings of 629,000 BTC. At the same time, Bitcoin held on exchanges is at its lowest level in six years.
– Report (Aug 2025)
View analysis
What this means: Large companies are steadily buying Bitcoin, which could balance out smaller investors who might be selling in a panic. This steady buying reduces the amount of Bitcoin available on the market, potentially pushing prices higher.

3. @Protos: Developer Disagreement – Mixed Impact

Bitcoin’s core developers are debating how much extra data (called OP_RETURN) should be allowed in transactions. Some want to keep Bitcoin simple and focused on being “digital gold,” while others want to expand its use for new financial applications like decentralized finance (DeFi) and Layer 2 solutions that improve speed and scalability.
– @Protos (142K followers · 220K impressions · 2025-05-05 14:22 UTC)
View thread
What this means: This debate could affect how flexible Bitcoin is for future technologies. Keeping Bitcoin simple might limit new features, but expanding it could risk its security or core purpose.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook on Bitcoin is cautiously optimistic. Big institutional buyers are helping steady the market, even as some retail investors feel nervous. Keep an eye on the 30-day exchange outflow trend—Bitcoin leaving exchanges has totaled 37,000 BTC since August. If exchange reserves drop below 2.4 million BTC and stay there, it might signal another price increase. The question remains: will the buying power of big investors outweigh the technical disagreements among developers? The market charts will tell the story.


What is the latest news about BTC?

Bitcoin weathers legal challenges and market shifts as major institutions stay committed. Here’s the latest:

  1. UK Fights to Keep $7 Billion in Seized Bitcoin (Oct 2, 2025) – A legal battle over Bitcoin taken in a fraud case could set an important global example.
  2. U.S. Government Shutdown Slows Crypto Progress (Oct 2, 2025) – Delays in regulatory approvals and economic reports create uncertainty for the rest of the year.
  3. Coinbase Hit with Shareholder Lawsuit (Oct 2, 2025) – Investors claim the company didn’t disclose SEC lawsuit risks before its 2021 stock market debut.

In-Depth Look

1. UK Fights to Keep $7 Billion in Seized Bitcoin (Oct 2, 2025)

What’s Happening:
The UK government wants to keep 61,000 Bitcoin (worth about $7 billion today) that were seized in a 2018 fraud case involving a Chinese individual named Zhimin Qian. A court trial set for January 2026 will decide if the victims get the Bitcoin itself or just its 2018 value in British pounds (around $10 million back then). The government argues that giving back the current, much higher value would unfairly benefit the victims, while the victims’ lawyers say the actual stolen Bitcoin should be returned based on legal principles called “equitable tracing.”

Why It Matters:
This case could clarify whether Bitcoin is treated like property or currency under the law. If the UK wins, governments might feel empowered to keep seized crypto as valuable assets, increasing their control over blockchain transactions. If the victims win, it could strengthen users’ ownership rights and encourage more institutional investment in Bitcoin (Cointribune).

2. U.S. Government Shutdown Slows Crypto Progress (Oct 2, 2025)

What’s Happening:
The U.S. government shutdown started on October 2, halting operations at agencies like the SEC and CFTC, and delaying important economic reports like inflation and jobs data. Bitcoin’s price stayed steady near $116,000, but other cryptocurrencies showed more volatility as traders protected themselves with options. Past shutdowns have had mixed effects on Bitcoin’s price — it rose 14% during a 2013 shutdown but fell 6% during a longer shutdown in 2018.

Why It Matters:
This shutdown could delay approval of new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), especially for Ethereum and other altcoins, which were expected to be approved in mid-October. On the other hand, a longer shutdown might weaken the U.S. dollar (already down 7% this year), making Bitcoin more attractive as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Investors will be watching closely for signals from the Federal Reserve once government operations resume (Bitcoinist).

3. Coinbase Hit with Shareholder Lawsuit (Oct 2, 2025)

What’s Happening:
A federal judge has allowed Coinbase shareholders to move forward with a lawsuit claiming the company failed to disclose risks related to an SEC enforcement action before its 2021 initial public offering (IPO). The lawsuit focuses on whether Coinbase’s executives properly informed investors about potential violations involving their staking and trading services.

Why It Matters:
Although the SEC closed its case in February 2025, this lawsuit brings renewed attention to how crypto companies disclose legal risks before going public. If Coinbase loses, it could push crypto exchanges to improve transparency and compliance. Despite the lawsuit, Coinbase’s stock rose 12% after the decision, reflecting broader optimism in the market (Bitcoinist).

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s story continues to balance regulatory challenges with growing institutional support. The UK’s legal battle and the U.S. shutdown add uncertainty, but Coinbase’s ability to withstand legal pressure shows the market is maturing. Will the positive momentum of “Uptober” overcome these geopolitical hurdles?


What is expected in the development of BTC?

Bitcoin’s development is moving forward with key milestones:

  1. Stacks’ Satoshi Upgrades (Q3 2025) – Introducing trustless sBTC to enable Bitcoin-backed decentralized finance (DeFi).
  2. Block’s Proto Mining Chip (2025) – Launching open-source mining hardware to make Bitcoin mining more decentralized.
  3. U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (July 22, 2025) – A government plan to create a Bitcoin reserve aimed at encouraging institutional adoption.
  4. South Korea’s Bitcoin ETF Guidelines (Late 2025) – New rules to clarify how Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will operate.

Deep Dive

1. Stacks’ Satoshi Upgrades (Q3 2025)

What it is: Stacks is rolling out upgrades that will allow Bitcoin to be used in decentralized finance without relying on middlemen. This means Bitcoin holders could put their coins to work in yield-generating pools, unlocking value from coins that are otherwise just sitting idle (Stacks).
Why it matters: This development could make Bitcoin more useful beyond just being a store of value. However, it depends on smooth technical execution and incentives for miners, which have been challenges in past Bitcoin updates.

2. Block’s Proto Mining Chip (2025)

What it is: Block is developing an open-source Bitcoin mining chip to challenge the current dominance of a few big players in mining hardware, like Bitmain (Block).
Why it matters: This could help make Bitcoin mining more decentralized and accessible by lowering hardware costs. But its success depends on how affordable and compatible the new chip is with existing mining setups.

3. U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (July 22, 2025)

What it is: The U.S. government is planning a Bitcoin reserve that won’t use taxpayer money, possibly funded through mining profits or transaction fees (Bitcoinist).
Why it matters: This move could boost Bitcoin’s credibility with big investors and institutions. Still, it faces hurdles like getting approval from Congress and managing its effect on the market.

4. South Korea’s Bitcoin ETF Guidelines (Late 2025)

What it is: South Korea’s Financial Services Commission is working on clear rules for spot Bitcoin ETFs, following significant investment inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs since April 2025 (FSC).
Why it matters: Clear ETF rules could make it easier for everyday investors to access Bitcoin. However, this depends on how well global regulations align and how stable the market remains.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s future involves a mix of new technology, more accessible mining hardware, and evolving regulations. Upgrades like sBTC and Block’s mining chip aim to increase Bitcoin’s usefulness and decentralization, but their success depends on technical details and miner cooperation. Meanwhile, U.S. and South Korean policies could open the door for more institutional investment, though political and operational challenges remain. The big question is whether Bitcoin’s integration into decentralized finance will outpace traditional financial systems in adoption.


What updates are there in the BTC code base?

Bitcoin’s software underwent important updates and policy changes in 2025.

  1. OP_RETURN Expansion (October 2025) – Increased the data limit to 4MB per transaction, allowing more complex uses directly on the blockchain.
  2. Disk Vulnerability Fix (April 2025) – Fixed a long-standing security issue that could cause storage problems for Bitcoin nodes.
  3. CMake Migration (May 2025) – Updated the build system to make development easier but required developers to adjust their workflows.

Deep Dive

1. OP_RETURN Expansion (October 2025)

Overview: In Bitcoin Core version 30, the previous limit of 80 bytes for OP_RETURN data was removed, now allowing up to 4MB of data per transaction output. This change matches what miners were already accepting and reduces the need for complicated workarounds that bloated the blockchain.

This update lets users embed things like documents, images, or proofs directly into Bitcoin transactions. Developers see this as a cleaner way to store data on-chain, but some worry it could lead to spam and distract from Bitcoin’s main use as a payment system.

What this means: This is a positive step for Bitcoin because it opens the door for new decentralized applications, such as NFTs (digital collectibles) or DAOs (decentralized organizations), to run directly on Bitcoin. However, it could increase storage demands for those running full nodes over time. (Source)

2. Disk Vulnerability Fix (April 2025)

Overview: Bitcoin Core 29.0 addressed a security flaw that had existed for five years. Attackers could exploit this flaw to flood node logs, filling up storage space and potentially crashing the system.

The fix (PR #32604) limits unnecessary log writing, protecting both traditional hard drives and SSDs. Node operators need to manually update their software to apply this fix.

What this means: This update doesn’t change Bitcoin’s overall function but is important for those running nodes. It helps protect the network from attacks that try to disrupt service by overloading storage, but it requires users to keep their software up to date. (Source)

3. CMake Migration (May 2025)

Overview: Bitcoin Core 29.0 switched from using Autotools to CMake for building the software. This change simplifies compiling Bitcoin on different operating systems but means developers had to learn new commands and adjust their workflows.

For example, developers now use options like -DWITH_ZMQ=ON to enable certain features. The goal is to make it easier for new contributors to work on Bitcoin, even though it temporarily slowed down some third-party projects.

What this means: This update doesn’t affect everyday users but is a positive move for developers. Faster and more flexible builds could speed up future improvements, though it requires some relearning. (Source)

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s 2025 updates show a balance between innovation—like expanding OP_RETURN to support new applications—and maintaining security and stability with important fixes. These changes reflect growing interest from institutions and developers alike. Still, discussions continue about managing blockchain size and keeping the network decentralized. The big question remains: can Bitcoin maintain its role as “digital gold” while embracing new smart-contract capabilities?


Why did the price of BTC go up?

Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 1.99% to $118,742 in the last 24 hours, slightly trailing the overall crypto market’s 2.06% gain. The main factors driving this rise are inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, investors seeking safety amid U.S. political uncertainty, and positive technical signals.

  1. ETF inflows jump – U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $675.8 million in new investments, led by BlackRock’s IBIT fund.
  2. U.S. government shutdown causes volatility – Investors are turning to Bitcoin as a safe place to park money during political uncertainty.
  3. Technical breakout – Bitcoin’s price remains above important moving averages, with momentum indicators showing bullish signs.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Demand Through ETFs (Positive for Bitcoin)

What happened: On October 1, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $675.8 million in new money, the largest inflow since mid-September. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone brought in $405.5 million, increasing its assets under management to $90.7 billion (Bloomberg).

Why it matters: When ETFs receive more investments, fewer Bitcoins are available on exchanges, which tends to push prices higher. Bitcoin’s price is becoming more closely linked to ETF activity, with IBIT ranking among the top 20 ETFs worldwide.

What to watch: If inflows continue this week, Bitcoin could test resistance levels between $120,000 and $122,000.

2. Political Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand (Mixed Effects)

What happened: The U.S. government shutdown increased market volatility, prompting some investors to buy Bitcoin as a hedge against political risks. Gold prices also rose to $3,922 per ounce, while cryptocurrency liquidations totaled $574 million, mostly from short positions.

Why it matters: Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold” is gaining attention during uncertain times. According to Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holders are selling less, which helps stabilize the market.

What to watch: Progress in U.S. budget negotiations or a return of risk appetite in stock markets could influence Bitcoin’s price direction.

3. Technical Momentum (Positive Outlook)

What happened: Bitcoin’s price bounced back above the $114,700 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62.97, indicating moderate bullish momentum, and the MACD histogram is rising. The price is above the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $113,486 but faces resistance near $120,000.

Why it matters: Traders are eyeing the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level at $121,422. Closing above $120,000 could lead to a retest of Bitcoin’s all-time high from August at $124,596.

Key support level: Between $116,000 and $117,500.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent price increase is driven by institutional buying through ETFs, safe-haven demand amid U.S. political uncertainty, and strong technical signals. While ETF inflows and reduced selling by long-term holders provide support, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown adds unpredictability.

What to watch: Will Bitcoin close above $120,000 this week, or will profit-taking near all-time highs cause a pullback? Keep an eye on ETF inflow data and the $116,000 support zone.