Why did the price of BTC go up?
Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 2.87% to $114,802 in the past 24 hours, bouncing back after a sharp drop over the weekend caused by geopolitical tensions. Here’s a quick summary of the main reasons:
- Trade War Easing – Positive comments from former President Trump about China helped calm fears.
- Market Reset – Over $19 billion in forced sell-offs cleared risky bets.
- Technical Support – Bitcoin held important price levels, encouraging short-term buying.
In-Depth Look
1. Relief Rally from Geopolitical News (Positive for Bitcoin)
What happened: Bitcoin’s price jumped after Trump and Vice President Vance indicated a willingness to negotiate with China, stepping back from a previous threat of a 100% tariff that had caused Bitcoin to drop 17%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, improved from “extreme fear” to “neutral” in just two days.
Why it matters: Investors saw these softer trade war comments as a sign that the risk of escalating tensions was lower, leading to a “relief rally” where Bitcoin recovered about 5% from its low of $109,000. Experts like Greg Magadini from Amberdata compared this to a similar crash and recovery in May 2021 driven by risky borrowing.
What to watch: The chance of a 100% tariff on China by November 1, currently at 17% according to Polymarket, could cause more price swings if it rises.
2. Market Reset After Massive Liquidations (Mixed Effects)
What happened: On Friday, more than $19 billion worth of crypto positions were forcibly sold, mostly long bets, marking the largest single-day liquidation ever. The total open interest (active contracts) in Bitcoin futures dropped 25% but partially recovered by 9.3% on Monday.
Why it matters: This forced selling removed excessive risk from the market, helping prices find a healthier balance. However, funding rates (the cost to hold futures positions) remain negative at -0.0072%, showing that traders are still cautious or bearish.
Key point: Bitcoin’s trading activity over 24 hours (turnover of 0.04) is still below the average seen in the third quarter (0.06), indicating that market liquidity hasn’t fully bounced back.
3. Technical Bounce from Key Support Levels (Neutral to Positive)
What happened: Bitcoin recovered above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $107,000 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $115,400 after briefly falling below $105,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of momentum, moved out of oversold territory, which historically signals potential for a quick rebound.
Why it matters: Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish, the price bounce attracted algorithmic traders and short-term investors. Resistance is expected near $118,000, where some traders might take profits.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent recovery shows a delicate balance: easing trade tensions and technical buying are helping offset ongoing economic risks and low liquidity. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can stay above $113,500 (its 50-day SMA) to keep the momentum going, or if fears of new tariffs will push prices down again. Keep an eye on U.S.-China trade news and exchange reserves for clues on where Bitcoin might head next.
What could affect the price of BTC?
Bitcoin’s future depends on global politics, technical improvements, and the influence of ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
- Geopolitical shocks – A recent $20 billion selloff shows risks in the system.
- Institutional ETFs – $3.24 billion in weekly investments point to growing confidence.
- Quantum-resistant upgrades – Planned changes by 2027 could improve Bitcoin’s security.
Deep Dive
1. Geopolitical Volatility (Short-Term Bearish)
Overview: On October 11, Bitcoin dropped 17% to $109,000 after former President Trump announced 100% tariffs on China, causing a $19 billion selloff (Decrypt). Bitcoin later recovered to $115,000, but confidence remains shaky. Experts warn about risks tied to Binance’s dominant role in liquidity.
What this means: Sudden global events can cause sharp drops in Bitcoin’s price due to its leveraged nature. While prices may bounce back, ongoing trade tensions or problems with major exchanges could lead to more selling.
2. ETF Inflows & Institutional Demand (Medium-Term Bullish)
Overview: In early October, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.24 billion in net investments, with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF leading at $1.82 billion. Companies like MARA Holdings also bought 400 BTC (about $46 million) after the crash (Binance News).
What this means: Continued ETF buying helps absorb selling pressure, while corporate purchases support the idea of Bitcoin as “digital gold.” With assets under management (AUM) at $164.5 billion, this demand could help stabilize prices despite market ups and downs.
3. Protocol Upgrades (Long-Term Mixed Outlook)
Overview: Developers have proposed BIP-119, which would add smart contract features, and a plan to make Bitcoin resistant to quantum computing attacks by 2030. BIP-119 faces challenges getting agreement from miners and nodes, and the quantum upgrade is urgent—if not done, up to 25% of Bitcoin could become unusable (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: If these upgrades succeed, Bitcoin could gain new uses like decentralized finance (DeFi). However, delays or coordination problems could leave Bitcoin vulnerable, especially if quantum computers become a real threat before 2027.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s path forward is a balance between growing institutional interest through ETFs and risks from global politics and technical challenges. While ETF inflows and corporate buying support a recovery above $120,000, regulatory scrutiny and the need for timely upgrades remain major uncertainties. Will ETF momentum overcome these challenges, or could systemic risks cause another major downturn?
What are people saying about BTC?
Bitcoin conversations are swinging between big price predictions and cautious warnings. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Price forecasts vary widely—from optimistic $200K+ targets to more conservative $65K lows
- Whales (large holders) moved $39 million in inactive Bitcoin, raising concerns about potential selling
- Market sentiment has cooled to a “neutral” level despite prices near all-time highs—a surprisingly positive sign
- Institutions continue buying through ETFs, helping balance out nervous retail investors
In-Depth Look
1. @Burning_Forest: Mixed price outlook for 2025–2027
“Bitcoin price prediction for 2025: Top $175K… 2027: Bottom $65K”
– @Burning_Forest (15.2K followers · 42K impressions · 2025-07-25 17:50 UTC)
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What this means: Experts are divided on Bitcoin’s future after the next halving event. The wide range—from $175K highs to $65K lows—reflects uncertainty about big economic shifts, demand for ETFs, and miners possibly selling off their coins.
2. @CryptoMobese: Technical charts suggest a bullish breakout at $135K
“BTC consolidating below ATH… Elliott Wave targets $135K if $112.4K breaks”
– @CryptoMobese (89K followers · 310K impressions · 2025-09-08 10:54 UTC)
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What this means: Technical analysts see patterns indicating Bitcoin could rise further if it breaks above $112.4K. Support at $109K is key. This setup is similar to May’s breakout before a 16% jump to $126K.
3. @CryptonationN: Neutral market sentiment near all-time highs is a positive sign
“Neutral Fear & Greed (45–55) at $115K is rare… last seen mid-2020 before 540% rally”
– @CryptonationN (212K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-09-20 15:59 UTC)
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What this means: When Bitcoin’s price is high but investors aren’t overly greedy or fearful, it often signals strong institutional control. This calm sentiment hasn’t been seen since late 2024, suggesting there’s room for prices to climb as fear of missing out (FOMO) grows.
4. Whale activity and ETF buying balance each other out
A Bitcoin wallet inactive for over 12 years moved 330 BTC (about $39 million) to new addresses (CoinMarketCap), while BlackRock’s IBIT ETF bought $524 million worth of BTC in one week.
What this means: Older coins moving off exchanges reduces selling pressure, but some large holders are still cashing out near peak prices. Meanwhile, ETFs are buying heavily—about $231 million daily—helping keep the market stable.
Conclusion
The overall outlook for Bitcoin is cautiously optimistic. Institutional investors are steadily accumulating, while some large holders are taking profits. Technical indicators and ETF buying suggest Bitcoin could reach $135K to $160K, but the usual excitement from everyday investors is missing. Keep an eye on the Spot/Perpetual futures volume ratio (currently 0.41); if it rises above 0.5, that would confirm strong buying momentum. Since whales control over 68% of Bitcoin’s supply, their next moves will likely shape the market’s direction in the coming months.
What is the latest news about BTC?
Bitcoin is navigating a rocky period after a major market crash that wiped out $20 billion in liquidations. Here’s a quick summary of what happened:
- Black Friday Crash (October 13, 2025) – Bitcoin dropped 17% in just 7 hours following a surprise tariff announcement from former President Trump targeting China.
- Binance Infrastructure Issues (October 13, 2025) – Problems with Binance’s trading system made the crash worse, leading to $280 million in compensation payments.
- V-Shaped Recovery (October 13, 2025) – Bitcoin bounced back to $115,000 as trade tensions eased and traders covered their short positions.
In-Depth Look
1. Black Friday Crash (October 13, 2025)
What happened:
Bitcoin’s price fell sharply from $121,000 to $109,000 on October 11, marking its biggest single-day drop in 2025. This followed Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports. The sell-off wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged trading positions, mostly from traders betting on prices going up. Traditional stock markets also took a hit, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.6%.
Why it matters:
This crash showed how sensitive cryptocurrencies are to global political events and risky trading practices like borrowing to trade (leverage). Although Bitcoin’s price recovered by 4.4% by October 13, experts warn the market remains fragile, especially because Binance plays such a big role in providing liquidity.
2. Binance Infrastructure Issues (October 13, 2025)
What happened:
A large sell-off of USDe and wBETH tokens on Binance triggered a chain reaction of forced liquidations. This was caused by a pricing error: Binance used its own internal order books to value collateral instead of relying on external price feeds (oracles). As a result, USDe’s price dropped to $0.65 on Binance, while it stayed at $1 elsewhere, causing many margin positions to be wiped out.
Why it matters:
This incident highlights the risks of centralization in crypto exchanges. Binance’s combined margin system and technical bottlenecks made losses worse. The exchange has since fixed the pricing method by using oracles and paid out $280 million in compensation, but trust in the platform has been shaken.
3. V-Shaped Recovery (October 13, 2025)
What happened:
Bitcoin’s price bounced back to $115,100 by October 13 after Trump hinted at a possible trade deal with China. Technical charts show a sharp V-shaped recovery, though Bitcoin faces resistance near $116,000 (the 100-hour simple moving average). Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (+13%), Solana (+11%), and Bittensor (+42%) also saw strong gains.
Why it matters:
This rebound offers short-term relief but doesn’t signal a major market turnaround yet. Analysts say the gains are mostly due to traders closing short bets and prices returning to average levels, rather than any fundamental improvements. Key price points to watch are $118,000 for a bullish breakout and $113,500 as support.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent volatility highlights how sensitive it is to global events and exchange-related risks. While the quick recovery shows some resilience, concerns remain about the market’s overall stability—especially given Binance’s dominant role and questions about stablecoins. Looking ahead, will institutional investors using ETFs help balance out the risks from retail traders using leverage in the last quarter of the year?
What is expected in the development of BTC?
Bitcoin’s future plans focus on improving technology, working with regulations, and encouraging big institutions to use it.
- sBTC Mainnet Launch (Q3 2025) – A new upgrade by Stacks will let Bitcoin be used in decentralized finance (DeFi) without needing trusted middlemen.
- Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Q4 2025) – The U.S. government is planning how to hold Bitcoin in its reserves.
- USDT on Bitcoin via RGB (Q4 2025) – Tether’s stablecoin USDT will be integrated directly on Bitcoin.
- BitVM2 Development (2026) – New technology to run smart contracts on Bitcoin with less trust needed.
Deep Dive
1. sBTC Mainnet Launch (Q3 2025)
Overview: The “Satoshi Upgrade” by Stacks will create sBTC, a version of Bitcoin that can be used in DeFi applications without relying on third parties to hold the coins. This could activate about 70% of Bitcoin that’s currently not being used, allowing it to earn returns.
What this means: This is good news for Bitcoin’s usefulness. More sBTC in liquidity pools could increase demand. However, there are technical challenges like keeping the value stable and coordinating miners and stakers.
2. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Q4 2025)
Overview: The U.S. government, under the Trump administration’s plan, wants to build a strategy to add Bitcoin to its reserves without using taxpayer money. This might happen through Bitcoin mining or fees from government agencies (Bitcoinist).
What this means: This could increase institutional interest in Bitcoin, which is positive. But there are risks if laws take longer to pass or if funding methods aren’t clear.
3. USDT on Bitcoin via RGB (Q4 2025)
Overview: Tether’s USDT stablecoin will be available directly on Bitcoin’s RGB protocol. This means users can hold and transfer BTC and USDT together in one wallet.
What this means: This is a positive step for Bitcoin’s DeFi ecosystem, reducing the need for wrapped tokens like WBTC. Success depends on making the user experience smooth.
4. BitVM2 Development (2026)
Overview: BitVM2 plans to bring smart contract capabilities similar to Ethereum to Bitcoin by processing transactions off the main blockchain and using Bitcoin as collateral to prevent fraud (Fiamma).
What this means: This could greatly expand what Bitcoin can do in the long run. However, it’s still early technology and faces challenges with scaling and getting developers on board.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s roadmap combines new Layer 2 technologies (like sBTC and BitVM2) with government policy changes (Strategic Reserve) and growth in DeFi (USDT integration). While success depends on technical execution and clear regulations, these developments could strengthen Bitcoin’s position as both a store of value and a programmable financial platform. The big question: can Bitcoin’s DeFi ecosystem catch up to Ethereum’s early lead?
What updates are there in the BTC code base?
Bitcoin’s software received important upgrades in 2025, aiming to improve its ability to grow while keeping the network decentralized and secure.
- OP_RETURN Expansion (October 2025) – Increased the amount of data you can include in a single transaction from 80 bytes to 4MB.
- Ledger Integration (August 2025) – Allowed users to lock Bitcoin (BTC) and earn rewards directly through hardware wallets like Ledger.
- Security & Protocol Updates (May 2025) – Improved network security by removing UPnP and fixed issues affecting miners and node operators.
In Detail
1. OP_RETURN Expansion (October 2025)
What happened: Bitcoin Core version 30.0 removed the previous limit that only allowed 80 bytes of data per transaction output. Now, users can include up to 4 megabytes of data. This opens up new possibilities, such as creating decentralized digital IDs or adding smart contract details directly on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Why it matters: This change is neutral overall—it gives developers more freedom to build new features but also risks making the blockchain larger and harder to manage if too much data is added. Node operators, who run the software to keep the network running, will need more storage space. Some alternative software like Bitcoin Knots, which enforces stricter rules to prevent spam, has become more popular (now running on about 11.5% of nodes). (Source)
2. Ledger Integration (August 2025)
What happened: Bitcoin Core added native support for Ledger hardware wallets, allowing users to “timelock” their BTC (meaning they can set a future date before funds can be spent) and stake CORE tokens directly from their devices.
This feature uses the Breez SDK, enabling users to earn an annual percentage yield (APY) of 4–6% on their staked assets while keeping full control of their private keys. The update was quickly adopted by over 40 developer communities worldwide.
Why it matters: This is a positive development for Bitcoin holders who want to earn passive income without giving up control of their coins. Since the assets remain on the hardware wallet, the risk of theft or loss is minimized. (Source)
3. Security & Protocol Updates (May 2025)
What happened: Bitcoin Core 29.0 removed UPnP (Universal Plug and Play) due to security concerns, improved how the software handles network protocols like NAT-PMP and IPv6, and fixed a bug that limited miners to blocks smaller than the maximum allowed size.
The update also introduced new commands for wallet management and switched to using CMake for building the software, moving away from the older Autotools system.
Why it matters: Most users won’t notice these changes directly, but node operators will need to adjust their firewall settings. Miners benefit from better tools to optimize block size, which can improve network efficiency and security over time. (Source)
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s 2025 upgrades show a balance between encouraging new features—like larger data capacity and earning rewards—and maintaining its core purpose as a secure, decentralized digital currency. As node operators decide whether to use the more flexible Bitcoin Core or the stricter Bitcoin Knots, the community will watch closely to see if the demand for storing more data on-chain outweighs concerns about blockchain size and performance.