Why did the price of BTC go up?

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 3.64% over the last 24 hours, reaching $105,757. This ended a week-long decline of 3.58% and outperformed the overall crypto market, which rose 3.75%. The main reasons behind this move include:

1. Macro Factors: Progress toward ending the U.S. government shutdown lowered overall market risk.
2. Institutional Activity: The U.S. government’s plan to hold a $20.56 billion Bitcoin reserve added credibility to BTC.
3. Technical Recovery: Bitcoin bounced back after hitting key support levels indicated by technical analysis tools.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Macro Policy Developments (Positive for Bitcoin)

Summary: Optimism increased as the U.S. Senate moved closer to ending the 41-day government shutdown, with important votes expected soon (Coincu). At the same time, the U.S. Treasury announced a $20.56 billion Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, signaling official acceptance of Bitcoin as part of national financial planning (The CCPress).

Why it matters: Less political uncertainty tends to boost investor confidence. The government’s decision to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset shows growing institutional trust, which can reduce selling pressure and encourage more buying.

What to watch: The timing of the Senate vote in the next 48 hours and any updates on expanding the Bitcoin reserve.

2. Technical Recovery from Key Support Levels (Mixed Signals)

Summary: Bitcoin bounced off a major support level at $102,667, known as the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool that measures if an asset is overbought or oversold, was near oversold at 43. However, another indicator, the MACD, still shows bearish signals.

Why it matters: Traders likely saw this support level as a good buying opportunity, which pushed volume up by 32.4% to $66.3 billion in 24 hours, confirming renewed interest. For the rally to continue, Bitcoin needs to close above the next key resistance at $109,660.

Key level to watch: If Bitcoin falls below $102,667 again, this recovery could fail.

3. Institutional Buying Signals (Positive for Bitcoin)

Summary: Influential figures like Arthur Hayes remain bullish on Bitcoin, expecting more liquidity from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Japanese company Metaplanet announced a $240 million Bitcoin purchase (BitcoinWorld).

Why it matters: High-profile endorsements and large corporate purchases support Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold.” Hayes’ views often influence retail investors, while Metaplanet’s buying strategy resembles that of MicroStrategy, a well-known Bitcoin investor.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent rebound is driven by easing macro risks, technical buying at key support levels, and growing institutional interest. However, it faces resistance near $109,000. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can stay above $107,617 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement) ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting minutes on Wednesday.

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What could affect the price of BTC?

Bitcoin’s price is balancing between growing interest from big investors and unpredictable moves by large holders.

1. Regulatory Changes – The CFTC plans to launch leveraged crypto trading by December 2025, which could bring more institutional money into Bitcoin.
2. Whale Activity – Large Bitcoin holders are moving significant amounts ($39.1M BTC), signaling potential profit-taking and short-term price swings.
3. Security Upgrades – New proposals aim to make Bitcoin more secure against future quantum computer threats, potentially protecting 25% of all Bitcoin by 2030.

Deep Dive

1. Regulatory Changes (Mixed Effects)

Overview: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is set to introduce regulated leveraged crypto trading by December 2025 (bitcoininfonews.com). This could attract over $300 billion from institutional investors. However, delays from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on approving altcoin ETFs and unclear rules around decentralized finance (DeFi) might slow overall market growth.

What this means: Leveraged trading products can increase liquidity and demand for Bitcoin, but inconsistent regulations between the U.S. and Europe may cause uneven market reactions. For example, when CME launched Bitcoin futures in 2025, volatility jumped by 22%.

2. Large Holder Activity (Short-Term Bearish)

Overview: The Exchange Whale Ratio reached 0.50 in August 2025, with about 12,000 BTC moving to exchanges weekly—the highest since November 2024 (CryptoQuant). At the same time, new large holders owning between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC sold 115,000 BTC over 30 days.

What this means: More Bitcoin moving to exchanges usually means holders are preparing to sell, which can put downward pressure on prices, especially near the $113,000 resistance level. Still, 67% of Bitcoin is held by long-term investors, which helps prevent sharp price drops.

3. Protocol Upgrades & Security (Positive Long-Term Outlook)

Overview: Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) like BIP-119 (which introduces quantum-resistant addresses) and BIP-348 (which adds covenants) aim to protect about 25% of Bitcoin by 2030 (CryptoTimes).

What this means: These upgrades could safeguard Bitcoin against future quantum computer attacks and enable over $300 billion in Bitcoin-backed decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. However, adoption by miners and network nodes may take time, as seen with delays after the Taproot upgrade.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price in the near future depends on the balance between demand from ETFs (which bring in about $3.24 billion weekly) and selling pressure from large holders, along with broader economic factors like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Over the long term, security upgrades and increased institutional adoption could transform Bitcoin into a more programmable and secure form of digital money.

Will leveraged trading increase Bitcoin’s liquidity or its volatility? Keep an eye on the CFTC’s product launches and the Spot/Perps volume ratio, which currently stands at 0.41.

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What are people saying about BTC?

Bitcoin discussions are swinging between optimistic price predictions and cautious technical signals. Here’s what’s making headlines:

1. Big players vs. profit-takers – Large investors are accumulating Bitcoin while 90% of holders are currently profitable and might sell.
2. $200K by 2025? – Several major banks are confidently forecasting Bitcoin could reach $200,000.
3. Geopolitical concerns – Experts warn that tensions between Iran and Israel might cause Bitcoin’s price to drop.
4. ETF paradox – While exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing record investments, everyday retail interest seems to be fading.

Deep Dive

1. @Burning_Forest: $65K–$175K price range – mixed outlook

“Bitcoin price prediction for 2025: Top $175,000 / Bottom $65,000… realism over hype.”
– @Burning_Forest (3.6K followers · 80K+ impressions · 2025-07-25 17:50 UTC)
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What this means: This wide price range shows uncertainty. On one hand, Bitcoin is gaining support from big institutions, but on the other, economic risks could hold it back. The big gap between the low and high estimates means opinions are divided.

2. @soylicy: Bull flag breakout setup – bullish signal

“BTC forming a flag pattern – entry zones $109K–$112.5K for $125K+ targets.”
– @soylicy (4.5K followers · 15K+ impressions · 2025-10-12 14:19 UTC)
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What this means: Technical analysts see Bitcoin’s recent 7% dip from its all-time high of $127,000 as a healthy pause. If Bitcoin breaks above $115,000, it could start climbing again.

3. @FOMCAlerts: Concerns over tightening continue – bearish outlook

“Bearish BTC sentiment persists despite Powell signaling QT slowdown.”
– @FOMCAlerts (38K followers · 120K+ impressions · 2025-10-15 14:28 UTC)
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What this means: Investors remain cautious because the Federal Reserve is still reducing liquidity (QT = quantitative tightening), even though the pace may slow. The Fed’s balance sheet is still $1.5 trillion higher than before COVID-19. Bitcoin’s price is also showing a stronger inverse relationship to the U.S. dollar index (DXY), meaning when the dollar rises, Bitcoin tends to fall.

4. @CCinspace: $200K institutional consensus – bullish outlook

“Bernstein, CryptoQuant, and Standard Chartered all targeting $200K+ BTC by 2025.”
– @CCinspace (18.2K followers · 252K+ impressions · 2025-06-26 20:05 UTC)
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What this means: Several well-known financial firms expect Bitcoin to surpass $200,000 by 2025. This optimism is based on the idea that ETF investments will soak up the reduced supply of Bitcoin after the next halving event. For example, BlackRock’s IBIT fund already holds about 6% of all Bitcoin in circulation.

Conclusion

The overall outlook on Bitcoin is optimistic but cautious. Big institutions are betting on long-term growth, while traders are watching closely for resistance around $115,000. Keep an eye on the 30-day ETF net flows (currently +$4.1 billion) as a sign of renewed institutional interest. When Wall Street’s buying power meets Main Street’s skepticism, expect Bitcoin’s price to stay volatile.

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What is the latest news about BTC?

Bitcoin is navigating changes in regulations and moves by big companies as the market watches for price swings. Here are the key updates:

1. CFTC Plans Leveraged Crypto Trading (Nov 10, 2025) – The U.S. regulator aims to launch leveraged crypto trading by December, changing how institutions can trade.
2. MicroStrategy Shorts End (Nov 10, 2025) – Investor James Chanos closed his short position on MicroStrategy, hinting at a possible rebound for Bitcoin held by companies.
3. Ledger Considers NY IPO (Nov 9, 2025) – The hardware wallet company is thinking about going public amid growing demand for secure crypto storage.

In-Depth Look

1. CFTC Plans Leveraged Crypto Trading (Nov 10, 2025)

What’s Happening:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced it will allow regulated leveraged spot crypto trading on big exchanges like CME, ICE, and Coinbase starting December 2025. The acting chair, Caroline Pham, said they’re working with the SEC to create clear federal rules. The goal is to attract more institutional investors and increase liquidity in the U.S. market.

Why It Matters:
This is good news for Bitcoin because regulated leverage means more traders and bigger trading volumes, similar to how Bitcoin futures on CME boosted the market in 2025. But it could also lead to bigger price swings, especially if everyday traders borrow too much. (CoinMarketCap)

2. MicroStrategy Shorts End (Nov 10, 2025)

What’s Happening:
Investor James Chanos closed his short position on MicroStrategy (MSTR), a company known for holding a large Bitcoin treasury. He noted that the company’s market value compared to its net assets has dropped from 2.0x to about 1.0x. MSTR’s stock price fell 51% since July 2025 but has recently stabilized around $219.68.

Why It Matters:
This suggests less negative pressure on companies holding Bitcoin. Since MicroStrategy is buying more Bitcoin with euros, this could signal a return to growth in corporate Bitcoin holdings, which may help support Bitcoin’s price. (AMBCrypto)

3. Ledger Considers NY IPO (Nov 9, 2025)

What’s Happening:
Ledger, a leading hardware wallet company that secures over $100 billion in crypto assets, is exploring an initial public offering (IPO) in New York or a large fundraising round. CEO Pascal Gauthier mentioned strong demand from institutions for secure custody solutions, targeting a $1.5 billion valuation.

Why It Matters:
If Ledger goes public, it would highlight the growing need for secure Bitcoin storage among big investors and could speed up corporate adoption. However, recent Bitcoin price drops (down 11.59% in the last 90 days) might affect the timing. (CoinMarketCap)

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at an important point this month with new regulations, institutional moves, and custody solutions shaping its future. The big question: Will the CFTC’s new leveraged trading rules increase Bitcoin’s market activity or cause bigger price swings in less liquid markets?

What is expected in the development of BTC?

Bitcoin’s development is moving forward with these key milestones:

1. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Progress (Late 2025) – Several U.S. states and federal agencies are working on laws to officially hold Bitcoin in government treasuries.
2. sBTC Mainnet Launch (2026) – Launch of a trustless, Bitcoin-backed decentralized finance (DeFi) platform using Stacks’ Layer 2 technology.
3. Mining Decentralization (2025) – Block (formerly Square) plans to release an open-source Bitcoin mining chip called Proto to make mining more accessible.
4. Botanix L2 Expansion (2026) – Introduction of Ethereum-compatible smart contracts on Bitcoin with faster 5-second block times.

Deep Dive

1. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Progress (Late 2025)

Overview: More than 20 U.S. states are drafting legislation to hold Bitcoin in their state treasuries. At the federal level, discussions are underway to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This follows a 2025 executive order from President Trump directing agencies like the Treasury and SEC to develop a plan for accumulating Bitcoin without using taxpayer money (Bitcoinist).
What this means: This is positive news for Bitcoin because government adoption could bring in over $400 billion by 2026, according to Bitwise analysts. However, delays in passing laws or regulatory challenges could slow progress.

2. sBTC Mainnet Launch (2026)

Overview: Stacks is working on “Satoshi Upgrades” to launch sBTC in 2026. This will allow Bitcoin holders to use their BTC in decentralized finance applications—like lending and liquidity pools—without relying on third-party custodians, all on Bitcoin’s Layer 2 network (Stacks).
What this means: This could unlock a large portion of Bitcoin that is currently inactive (over 70% of supply). However, there are technical challenges, such as keeping the system decentralized and ensuring miners and stakers are properly incentivized.

3. Mining Decentralization (2025)

Overview: Block plans to release Proto, an open-source Bitcoin mining chip, in late 2025. The goal is to reduce dependence on a few big manufacturers like Bitmain and make mining more accessible to smaller players (Block).
What this means: This could strengthen Bitcoin’s network security by spreading out mining power. Profitability for miners will still depend on Bitcoin’s price and electricity costs, so the impact is cautiously optimistic.

4. Botanix L2 Expansion (2026)

Overview: Botanix Labs is developing Spiderchain, a Bitcoin Layer 2 solution compatible with Ethereum smart contracts. It aims to reach a hash rate of over 35 exahashes per second by 2026 and uses multisignature wallets for security without relying on centralized bridges. This supports DeFi apps like GMX (Crypto.News).
What this means: This could increase Bitcoin’s utility by enabling smart contracts, but success depends on whether Bitcoin users adopt these new features, which has been a challenge historically.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s future roadmap combines growing institutional adoption through government reserves with technical innovations like Layer 2 solutions and more decentralized mining. While clearer regulations and DeFi integration offer promising opportunities, challenges remain in execution—especially around miner cooperation and user adoption of new technologies. The big question is whether Bitcoin will focus on becoming a “financial rail” for transactions or continue emphasizing its role as a store of value.

What updates are there in the BTC code base?

Bitcoin’s software received important updates in October 2025, focusing on making the network more scalable, private, and secure.

1. OP_RETURN Expansion (October 12, 2025) – Increased the amount of data you can include in a single transaction to about 4 MB.
2. Private Custody BIP (October 24, 2025) – Improved privacy for multisignature wallets by limiting access to transaction details.
3. Security Fixes Post-v30 (October 29, 2025) – Fixed four minor security issues discovered after the major update.

Deep Dive

1. OP_RETURN Expansion (October 12, 2025)

What happened: Bitcoin Core version 30.0 removed the old 80-byte limit on OP_RETURN outputs, allowing users to store up to roughly 4 megabytes of data in a single transaction. OP_RETURN is a feature that lets you embed extra information on the Bitcoin blockchain, like documents or NFT details.

Previously, this limit was very small, but now users can include much larger files directly on the blockchain. This change matches how miners already handle larger data if the transaction fees are paid. Some worry this could make the blockchain bigger and harder to manage, while others say it reduces the need for complicated workarounds that use many small transactions.

Why it matters: This update doesn’t directly affect Bitcoin’s core financial functions but opens the door for new uses like decentralized apps. It gives users more options but means that those running Bitcoin nodes will need more storage space. (Source)

2. Private Custody BIP (October 24, 2025)

What happened: A new Bitcoin Improvement Proposal introduced “Chain Code Delegation,” a way for participants in multisignature wallets to enforce rules without revealing the entire transaction history.

Multisignature wallets require multiple people to approve transactions. Before, all participants could see all wallet activity, which raised privacy concerns. Now, by withholding certain chain codes, trusted parties like custodians can verify specific transactions without accessing everything.

Why it matters: This is a positive step for Bitcoin’s privacy, especially for institutions managing large amounts of Bitcoin. It helps regulated businesses use Bitcoin while keeping sensitive information private. Users keep control but reduce the risk of third-party spying. (Source)

3. Security Fixes Post-v30 (October 29, 2025)

What happened: Two weeks after the v30 release, developers fixed four minor security issues. These included rare cases where the software could crash during blockchain reorganizations and some incorrect network port usage.

No attacks were reported, and these fixes were precautionary. Node operators were encouraged to update to keep the network stable.

Why it matters: These routine security updates help keep Bitcoin reliable and safe. The open communication shows the developers’ commitment to transparency and ongoing maintenance. (Source)

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s October 2025 updates show a careful balance between adding new features (like larger data capacity and better privacy) and maintaining security. While the OP_RETURN expansion has sparked debate about blockchain size, these improvements highlight Bitcoin’s ability to evolve. It remains to be seen whether higher miner fees will naturally limit spam or if stricter rules will be needed in the future.