Why did the price of XMR go up?

Monero (XMR) increased by 1.53% to $271.52 in the last 24 hours, slightly outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 1.6%. This growth is driven by improved confidence in network security and positive technical indicators.

1. Stronger Network Security – Efforts to decentralize mining after a failed 51% attack in August have boosted trust.
2. Technical Breakthrough – The price moved above important moving averages, showing short-term upward momentum.
3. Growing Derivatives Interest – Increased trading activity in GMX’s XMR/USD perpetual contracts (with up to 100x leverage) has sparked more speculative buying.

Deep Dive

1. Network Security Recovery (Positive for Price)

Overview: In August 2025, Monero’s mining community successfully defended against an attempt by Qubic to control over 33% of the network’s computing power. They did this by shifting mining power to decentralized pools like P2Pool.

Why it matters: This reduced the risk of attacks like double-spending or censorship, which helped restore investor confidence. After a 19% price drop in mid-August, exchanges such as Kraken resumed XMR deposits and withdrawals once network stability was confirmed.

What to watch: P2Pool’s share of the network’s mining power is currently about 15%. If it grows and stays above 20%, it would further strengthen the network’s decentralization.

2. Technical Momentum (Positive for Price)

Overview: Monero’s price rose above its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $268.79 and a key pivot point at $268.94. The MACD indicator, which shows momentum, turned positive (+1.21).

Why it matters: Traders see this as a sign of growing bullish momentum, especially since Monero held above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $276.35 during recent market swings. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48.93, indicating there’s room for the price to rise before becoming overbought.

Key level: If the price closes above the Fibonacci resistance level at $273.04, it could trigger automated buying by trading algorithms.

Conclusion

Monero’s recent price rebound reflects both stronger fundamentals—thanks to more decentralized mining—and technical traders taking advantage of oversold conditions. While privacy coins like XMR still face regulatory challenges, Monero’s successful defense against a major attack has reinforced its reputation as a resilient asset.

What to watch next: Can Monero stay above $273 and aim for $285, the high from August? Keep an eye on mining pool distribution and derivatives trading volume for confirmation.

What could affect the price of XMR?

Monero balances privacy innovation with risks from mining centralization.

1. Mining Centralization – Qubic controls 38% of mining power, raising concerns about potential attacks.
2. Regulatory Challenges – The EU plans to ban privacy coins on regulated exchanges by 2027, limiting access.
3. FCMP++ Upgrade – A major update with quantum-resistant privacy features is expected in late 2025.

In-Depth Look

1. Mining Centralization Risks (Negative Impact)

What’s happening: By August 2025, Qubic, an AI-focused group, gained control of 38% of Monero’s mining power by offering profit-sharing incentives. This level of control could allow them to block transactions or reorganize the blockchain, which threatens Monero’s decentralized nature. Developers are discussing changes to reduce this dominance.

Why it matters: When one group controls more than a third of the mining power, it risks the security and fairness of the network. This has already led to some exchanges, like Kraken, temporarily suspending Monero trading. If centralization continues, investor confidence may drop, pushing prices below important support levels like $258 (Cointelegraph).

2. Regulatory Crackdowns (Negative Impact)

What’s happening: The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) rules will ban privacy coins on regulated exchanges starting July 2027. Countries like Japan and South Korea have similar restrictions in place.

Why it matters: When exchanges remove privacy coins, liquidity drops, often causing prices to fall by 15-30%. However, Monero’s peer-to-peer trading has grown by 71% year-over-year, and integrations with platforms like THORChain and Haven help users trade privately without exchanges. This could soften the impact of regulatory bans (CoinDesk).

3. FCMP++ Protocol Upgrade (Positive Impact)

What’s happening: The upcoming Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) upgrade, expected in late 2025, will add quantum-resistant cryptography and reduce transaction sizes by 40%.

Why it matters: These improvements will make Monero even more private and efficient, potentially increasing its use in countries with heavy surveillance. This could lead to a repeat of the strong transaction growth seen in 2024 (208%) and push prices back toward the $300 resistance level last seen in May 2025 (Monero CCS).

Conclusion

Monero’s future price depends on how well it can address mining centralization while benefiting from growing demand for privacy, especially as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) become more common. The FCMP++ upgrade offers a strong positive catalyst, but regulatory bans and Qubic’s mining dominance pose significant risks. Keep an eye on the P2Pool mining share—if it rises above 15%, it could signal a return to better decentralization. The key question: Can Monero’s community outsmart regulators and dominant miners?

What are people saying about XMR?

The Monero community is actively discussing security concerns and its future potential. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Concerns about mining centralization after Qubic controlled 51% of the network’s mining power in a recent test.
2. Price stability despite network issues and temporary exchange suspensions.
3. Optimistic 2030 price predictions depend on privacy demand growing faster than regulatory restrictions.

Deep Dive

1. @Qubic: Mining dominance raises security worries bearish

“Qubic mined 80% of Monero blocks in 2 hours, reorganizing 6 blocks and isolating 60”
– @Qubic (58K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-08-15 13:51 UTC)
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What this means: This is a negative sign for Monero (XMR) because when one miner controls too much power, it increases the risk of double-spending attacks and goes against Monero’s goal of being decentralized. After community backlash, Qubic’s share of mining power dropped from 38% to 35%, but it’s still closely watched.

2. @GMX_IO: XMR/USD derivatives launch boosts optimism bullish

“Permissionlessly Long or Short Monero with 100x leverage”
– @GMX_IO (312K followers · 4.7M impressions · 2025-06-26 09:46 UTC)
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What this means: This is positive for XMR because derivatives trading increases market liquidity and attracts more traders. Since launch, open interest in these contracts jumped to $53.35 million (CoinMarketCap), showing strong interest.

3. @soontzu: Privacy focus drives $600 price target bullish

“Monero is going to $600 because it’s the only private alternative to surveillance chains”
– @soontzu (21K followers · 890K impressions · 2025-08-31 12:19 UTC)
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What this means: This is encouraging for XMR as growing regulatory scrutiny on transparent blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum could increase demand for Monero’s untraceable transactions. Monero’s 62% annual gain compared to Bitcoin’s 57% shows it’s holding up well.

Conclusion

The outlook for Monero is mixed. While the introduction of derivatives and strong privacy demand are positive signs, concerns about mining centralization remain a risk. After Kraken froze deposits on August 17, XMR’s price dropped 19% during the week but bounced back to $271.63 (+1.4% in 24 hours), showing resilience. Keep an eye on Qubic’s mining share and the 200-day EMA at $276.35 for clues on whether Monero’s price will continue rising or face a downturn.

What is the latest news about XMR?

Monero is currently facing challenges related to mining centralization and issues on darknet markets, putting its privacy features to the test. Here are the key updates:

1. Qubic’s 51% Attack Experiment (September 5, 2025) – A mining pool’s attempt to dominate Monero’s network raised security concerns.
2. Kraken Freezes XMR Deposits (August 17, 2025) – The exchange paused deposits during a hashrate crisis as a precaution.
3. Abacus Market Exit Scam (August 29, 2025) – The shutdown of a darknet market increased scrutiny on privacy coins like Monero.

Deep Dive

1. Qubic’s 51% Attack Experiment (September 5, 2025)

Overview:
Qubic, a mining pool connected to IOTA co-founder Sergey Ivancheglo, tried to take control of Monero’s mining power by paying miners with its own token, QUBIC. This strategy, costing about $10,000 per day, risked blocking transactions and rewriting parts of the blockchain.

What this means:
This is a negative sign for Monero because having too much mining power controlled by one group goes against Monero’s goal of decentralization. However, Monero developers suggested solutions like a hard fork (a major software update) and encouraging mining through P2Pool, a decentralized mining method, to help restore trust if these are implemented. (KachiChinedum)

2. Kraken Freezes XMR Deposits (August 17, 2025)

Overview:
Kraken, a major cryptocurrency exchange, temporarily stopped accepting Monero deposits after Qubic briefly controlled over half of Monero’s mining power. During this time, Monero’s price dropped 19% but later recovered to $280 as mining power shifted back to smaller pools.

What this means:
The quick price recovery shows strong support from the Monero community, but the exchange’s caution highlights ongoing regulatory concerns. Technical indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), moved from 31 (indicating the coin was oversold) to 46, signaling renewed buying interest. (CoinMarketCap)

3. Abacus Market Exit Scam (August 29, 2025)

Overview:
Abacus, a darknet market known for supporting Monero, suddenly shut down, causing users to lose between $300 million and $400 million. Despite this, Monero’s price increased by 8.9% after the event, suggesting that demand for privacy extends beyond illegal activities.

What this means:
This event is neutral for Monero’s price: while connections to darknet markets bring regulatory scrutiny, the coin’s price strength shows it is valued for privacy and censorship-resistant transactions in wider use cases. (Weex)

Conclusion

Monero’s privacy features are being challenged by risks from mining centralization and darknet market instability. However, the community’s ability to adapt and push for decentralized mining solutions may help protect the network against attacks like Qubic’s. Will these efforts succeed in keeping Monero secure and private?

What is expected in the development of XMR?

Monero’s development plan focuses on improving privacy while growing its ecosystem:

1. Full-Chain Membership Proofs (Q4 2025) – Making audits possible without sacrificing privacy.
2. CARROT Protocol Integration (Q4 2025) – Setting minimum coin “age” to prevent transaction tracking.
3. Seraphis/Jamtis Overhaul (2026) – New transaction system for stronger anonymity and easier wallet use.
4. Bulletproofs++ (No Date) – Making transactions smaller and faster to verify.
5. Monero Browser Wallet (Testing) – A web-based wallet to make Monero easier to use online.

Deep Dive

1. Full-Chain Membership Proofs (Q4 2025)

What it is: FCMP++ lets users prove they own certain Monero coins without showing their full transaction history. This upgrade, funded through the Community Crowdfunding System, helps meet regulatory needs for audits while keeping Monero’s privacy intact. Developer Justin Berman confirmed progress in September 2025 here.
Why it matters: This is good news for institutions like exchanges and wallets that need compliance tools. However, if not designed carefully, it could make Monero harder to use for everyday users.

2. CARROT Protocol (Q4 2025)

What it is: CARROT (Coin-Age Requirement for Transactions) requires coins to be held for a minimum amount of time before spending. This makes it harder for outside parties to analyze and link transactions.
Why it matters: While users won’t notice much change right away, this strengthens Monero’s privacy over time by protecting against tracking tools like CipherTrace.

3. Seraphis & Jamtis (2026)

What it is: Seraphis will replace Monero’s current transaction system (RingCT) with a more flexible one. Jamtis will add reusable payment codes, similar to Bitcoin’s BIP47, making it easier to manage private addresses. Together, they aim to reduce blockchain size and improve wallet usability.
Why it matters: These upgrades will help Monero scale better and be more user-friendly, which is important for wider adoption. But they must be implemented perfectly to avoid security risks.

4. Bulletproofs++

What it is: An improved version of Monero’s Bulletproofs system that reduces transaction size by 15–20% and speeds up verification. It’s currently proposed but has no set release date, as noted in the roadmap.
Why it matters: Smaller, faster transactions mean lower fees and a more efficient network, benefiting all users indirectly.

5. Monero Browser Wallet

What it is: A browser extension funded by the community that allows users to send Monero (XMR) directly through websites. It’s in early testing by Spirobel and could open up new privacy-focused online shopping options.
Why it matters: This makes Monero more accessible for everyday use, though it will compete with popular Web3 wallets like MetaMask.

Conclusion

Monero’s roadmap balances strengthening privacy features (FCMP++, CARROT) with expanding usability (Browser Wallet). However, concerns remain about mining centralization, especially with pools like Qubic controlling 38% of the network’s power as of July 2025. The success of usability improvements like Jamtis will be key to attracting new users and maintaining Monero’s decentralized nature.

What updates are there in the XMR code base?

Monero’s software has recently received important security fixes and privacy improvements.

1. Privacy Leak Patch (August 26, 2025) – Fixed a vulnerability that could expose transaction details when connecting to harmful remote nodes.
2. FCMP++ Integration Proposal (September 7, 2025) – Work is underway to add quantum-resistant technology to improve transaction validation.
3. Bug Fixes & Stability (July 25, 2025) – General updates to make the network more reliable.

Deep Dive

1. Privacy Leak Patch (August 26, 2025)

Overview: This update fixes a serious privacy issue where users connecting to malicious remote nodes risked revealing sensitive transaction information.

The solution makes wallet software check remote nodes more carefully, stopping leaks of user data. This update affects both command-line (CLI) and graphical (GUI) wallets, so users need to upgrade to version 0.18.4.1 or newer.

What this means: This is good news for Monero because it strengthens its core promise of privacy, making it safer for everyday users. Node operators should update right away to prevent attacks. (Source)

2. FCMP++ Integration Proposal (September 7, 2025)

Overview: Developer Justin Berman suggested adding Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++), a new technology designed to protect Monero against future quantum computer threats.

FCMP++ would replace the current Bulletproofs system, shrinking proof sizes by about 30% and improving security against quantum attacks. The community is reviewing this proposal, with testing planned for late 2025.

What this means: This is cautiously optimistic for the long term. It helps future-proof Monero’s privacy but needs careful rollout. If adopted, users might experience faster transaction checks. (Source)

3. Bug Fixes & Stability (July 25, 2025)

Overview: A minor update fixed problems that caused some nodes to crash unexpectedly and improved syncing for devices with limited resources.

Updates included tweaks to the Dandelion++ protocol, which helps broadcast transactions more securely, and fixes for rare memory leaks.

What this means: This is routine maintenance, keeping Monero running smoothly without adding new features. Node operators will see fewer interruptions. (Source)

Conclusion

Monero’s recent updates focus on improving security and preparing for future challenges, with key privacy fixes and plans for quantum-resistant technology. While these changes may not immediately affect Monero’s price, they reinforce its status as a top privacy-focused cryptocurrency.

What’s next? Will the adoption of FCMP++ speed up as quantum computing technology advances?