Why did the price of XMR fall?

Monero (XMR) dropped 3.31% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.91%. The main reasons for this decline are:

1. Security concerns – The Qubic mining pool tried to gain majority control of the network (51%), and unusual orphan blocks appeared.
2. Technical breakdown – The price fell below an important support level at $269.
3. Regulatory worries – Privacy coins like Monero face ongoing risks of being delisted due to increased crackdowns on darknet markets.

Deep Dive

1. Risks from Mining Centralization (Negative Impact)

Overview: The Qubic mining pool, led by Sergey Ivancheglo (co-founder of IOTA), controlled 38% of Monero’s mining power as of August 7. This raised concerns about a possible 51% attack, where one group could control the network. Between August 6-7, five orphan blocks appeared—blocks rejected by the network—with four coming from an unknown miner (Cointelegraph).

What this means:

• When too much mining power is concentrated, it risks blocking transactions or allowing double-spending (spending the same coins twice).
• Some exchanges, like Kraken, paused Monero deposits on August 16 as a safety measure.
• This instability could make big investors hesitant to support privacy-focused coins.

What to watch: The share of mining done by P2Pool, a decentralized mining network. It needs to exceed 15% to balance out Qubic’s influence.

2. Breakdown of Technical Support (Negative Impact)

Overview: Monero’s price fell below the $269 support level, which is based on the Fibonacci retracement—a tool traders use to identify key price points. The RSI14 indicator was neutral at 54.25, but the MACD showed signs of a downward trend.

What this means:

• The next support level, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $276.35, did not hold.
• Large selling volumes suggest automatic stop-loss orders were triggered below $258, accelerating the drop.
• A falling wedge pattern on shorter timeframes indicates some traders may be stuck holding losing positions.

Conclusion

Monero’s recent price drop is due to a combination of fears about mining centralization, technical price weaknesses, and regulatory pressures unique to privacy coins. Although the threat of a 51% attack seems under control for now, the $258 price level from June is critical. If Monero falls below this level for a sustained period, it could lead to a chain reaction of forced selling.

Key point to watch: Will Monero’s developer community introduce protocol changes by September 30 to reduce the dominance of large mining pools?

What could affect the price of XMR?

Monero’s price is caught between advances in privacy technology and increasing regulatory challenges.

1. Mining Centralization Risks – Qubic’s push to control over half of Monero’s mining power threatens the network’s security.
2. Regulatory Pressure – Crackdowns on darknet markets and new EU tax rules are pressuring exchanges to drop Monero.
3. Technology Upgrades – New updates like Seraphis and Jamtis aim to improve privacy and make the network more scalable.

Deep Dive

1. Mining Centralization Risks (Negative Impact)

Overview: Qubic, a mining pool led by IOTA co-founder Sergey Ivancheglo, is openly trying to control more than 33% of Monero’s mining power by rewarding miners with $QUBIC tokens. By August 2025, Qubic controlled 38% of the network’s hashrate. This raises the risk of a 51% attack, where one group controls the majority of mining power and could disrupt transactions or force changes to the network (CoinMarketCap Community).

What this means: When one mining pool dominates, it threatens Monero’s core principle of decentralization. A 51% attack could damage trust in the network, cause investors to sell, or lead to controversial changes in the protocol. The network’s daily security budget of about $130,000 could be vulnerable to takeover attempts, creating a serious risk for the system.

2. Regulatory Pressure (Negative Impact)

Overview: In August 2025, Europol shut down the Abacus Market, a darknet marketplace that used Monero. At the same time, the European Union introduced DAC8, a tax rule targeting privacy coins like Monero. These events have increased fears that exchanges such as Kraken and Binance might delist Monero, similar to Bittrex’s exit in 2023 (Weex News).

What this means: If major exchanges stop listing Monero, it could reduce liquidity and increase price swings. Monero’s daily trading volume ($78.1 million) is already low compared to its market value ($5.32 billion), making it vulnerable to big sell-offs. Regulatory pressure may push Monero into smaller, less accessible markets, limiting its mainstream use.

3. Technology Upgrades (Positive Impact)

Overview: Monero has introduced the Seraphis transaction protocol (active since 2022) and the Jamtis address system to enhance privacy and efficiency. These improvements, along with community tools like atomic swaps, could open up new uses in decentralized finance (DeFi) and compliant privacy solutions (Monero Blog).

What this means: Better privacy and the ability to work across different blockchains could attract institutional investors focused on privacy. If adoption grows, Monero’s daily transactions (currently about 23,000) could rise back to 2021 levels (~30,000), indicating a healthier network and supporting the price.

Conclusion

Monero’s future depends on balancing its privacy innovations with the risks from mining centralization and regulatory challenges. While upgrades like Seraphis could renew developer interest, Qubic’s growing mining power and EU regulations pose short-term threats. Will decentralized mining through P2Pool exceed 15% by October 2025 to counter Qubic’s influence?

What are people saying about XMR?

The Monero community is navigating some mining challenges but remains cautiously hopeful. Here’s what’s making headlines:

1. Qubic’s 51% mining control leads to Kraken exchange freezing trades
2. Positive chart signals appear despite recent price drops
3. Long-term price predictions vary due to regulatory concerns

In-Depth Look

1. @Qubic: Concerns Over Mining Control Bearish

“Qubic controls 38% of Monero’s mining power and is selling XMR to buy back QUBIC tokens.”
– @Qubic (102K followers · 2.1M impressions · July 25, 2025, 18:35 UTC)
See original post
What this means: This is a negative sign for Monero (XMR) because when one group controls a large portion of mining, it risks the network’s security and could attract regulatory attention.

2. @cookiedotfun: Chart Pattern Suggests Price Rise Bullish

“A falling wedge pattern on Monero’s charts points to a potential price of $276–$280 if trading volume confirms the breakout.”
– @cookiedotfun (88K followers · 890K impressions · August 4, 2025, 12:27 UTC)
See original post
What this means: This is a positive short-term signal, but it depends on continued buying to reverse the recent 7% price drop over the last three months.

3. Cryptomus: Price Predictions for 2030 Mixed

“Conservative estimate is $610, while the optimistic forecast reaches $5,828 by 2030, depending on how privacy features are adopted versus regulatory crackdowns.”
– Cryptomus (Analyst report · June 21, 2025, 06:18 UTC)
Read full analysis
What this means: The long-term outlook is uncertain. Monero could grow significantly if privacy coins gain acceptance, but strict regulations could limit its potential.

Conclusion

Opinions on Monero are divided. On one hand, technical chart patterns suggest a possible price rebound. On the other, concerns about mining centralization, especially Qubic’s control, raise red flags. The recent 51% mining control event caused exchanges like Kraken to freeze Monero trading temporarily, but the community quickly redistributed mining power to protect the network. Keep an eye on the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $297.87—if Monero’s price stays above this level, it could indicate renewed confidence, especially around the $288 support area.

What is the latest news about XMR?

Monero is dealing with some network security challenges while continuing to grow and improve. Here are the key updates:

1. Mining Power Shakeup (August 15, 2025) – Qubic briefly controlled over half of Monero’s mining power, raising concerns about centralization.
2. Funding for Development (July 25, 2025) – The community approved funding to support full-time developers.
3. Price Strength (August 29, 2025) – Monero’s price jumped nearly 9% amid turmoil in darknet markets.

In-Depth Look

1. Mining Power Shakeup (August 15, 2025)

What happened:
Qubic, a project connected to one of IOTA’s founders, mined a large portion of Monero blocks over 24 hours. This led to a suspected attack on the network. On August 15, Qubic controlled 51% of the mining power, allowing it to reorganize blocks and isolate others.

Why it matters:
When one group controls more than half of the mining power, it can potentially manipulate transactions, which is a big risk for Monero’s privacy and security. To protect the network, the community increased the number of confirmations needed for deposits and encouraged mining through decentralized pools like P2Pool. (CoinMarketCap)

2. Funding for Development (July 25, 2025)

What happened:
Monero’s community approved over $1.2 million in funding for six projects. These include hiring full-time developers, upgrading the Feather wallet, and integrating with BTCPay Server to help merchants accept Monero.

Why it matters:
This investment is positive for Monero’s future. Improving privacy tools and making it easier for businesses to use Monero can help the project grow, even as regulations become stricter. (Monero)

3. Price Strength (August 29, 2025)

What happened:
Monero’s price rose 8.9% to $268.42 after the Bitcoin-based darknet marketplace Abacus disappeared in what’s believed to be an exit scam. This led traders to expect higher demand for privacy-focused coins like Monero.

Why it matters:
This price increase is mixed news. While darknet market activity can boost demand for privacy coins in the short term, it also draws more attention from regulators. Still, Monero’s price is up 63% compared to last year, showing its resilience. (WEEX)

Conclusion

Monero is at a critical point. On one hand, strong community support is driving development and innovation. On the other, the recent mining power concentration highlights ongoing security risks. The question remains: can Monero’s community-driven approach keep the network secure and private as challenges grow?

What is expected in the development of XMR?

Monero’s roadmap focuses on improving privacy, protecting against future quantum computer threats, and expanding its user ecosystem.

1. Seraphis & Jamtis (2025) – A new transaction system and address format to boost privacy and make transactions smaller and faster.
2. Bulletproofs++ (2026) – Further reduces transaction size and speeds up verification.
3. FCMP++ Upgrade (Late 2025) – Adds quantum-resistant encryption to past transactions for stronger security.
4. Community Tools (Q4 2025) – New browser wallet and merchant plugins to make Monero easier to use and accept.

Deep Dive

1. Seraphis & Jamtis (2025)

Overview
Seraphis is a new way to handle transactions that will replace Monero’s current system called RingCT. Jamtis introduces a new type of address. Together, they aim to cut transaction sizes by about 40% and make it harder for anyone to analyze the blockchain and trace transactions (Monero Research Lab).

What this means
This upgrade strengthens Monero’s privacy features, which could attract users who want to avoid surveillance. However, there is some risk if the upgrade doesn’t work smoothly with older transactions or wallets.

2. Bulletproofs++ (2026)

Overview
Bulletproofs++ is an improved version of Monero’s current technology that makes transactions smaller and faster to verify. Early tests show it could reduce proof sizes by 15–20%.

What this means
Smaller, faster transactions mean lower fees and the ability to handle more transactions at once. But delays in this upgrade could give competitors like Zcash an edge.

3. FCMP++ Upgrade (Late 2025)

Overview
Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) will add quantum-resistant encryption to older transactions. This protects Monero’s transaction history from future quantum computer attacks (Funded CCS Proposal).

What this means
This is a forward-looking security measure that is generally positive but requires a lot of computing power to implement without making the blockchain too large.

4. Community Tools (Q4 2025)

Overview
The Monero community is supporting:

• A browser-based wallet for easier access
• A plugin for BTCPay Server to help merchants accept Monero
• Updates to Feather wallet for better usability.

What this means
These tools will help more people use and accept Monero, which is good for adoption. However, Monero depends on volunteer developers, so keeping them engaged is important.

Conclusion

Monero’s roadmap aims to keep privacy strong, prepare for future quantum threats, and make the ecosystem easier to use. While these upgrades could keep Monero ahead in privacy technology, challenges remain, including risks from mining centralization by pools like Qubic.

Will Monero’s community-driven approach stay ahead of bigger, institution-backed competitors in the privacy race? Only time will tell.

What updates are there in the XMR code base?

Monero's software has recently received important security updates and privacy improvements.

1. Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025) – Fixed a vulnerability involving remote node connections.
2. Bug Fixes (July 25, 2025) – Improved overall stability and fixed minor issues.
3. FCMP++ Integration Proposal (September 7, 2025) – Plans underway to enhance protection against future quantum computing threats.

Deep Dive

1. Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025)

Overview: A critical update fixed a privacy issue where bad actors controlling remote nodes could potentially identify users by analyzing wallet interactions.

Details: The update changes how wallets share transaction data with remote nodes, making sure sensitive details like transaction IDs and patterns used to hide real transactions stay hidden. This stops attackers from linking transactions back to specific users.

What this means: This is a positive development for Monero because it strengthens its core promise of privacy, helping it maintain its status as one of the most secure privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. (Source)

2. Bug Fixes (July 25, 2025)

Overview: A smaller update addressed issues affecting network synchronization and wallet fee calculations.

Details: Fixes reduced crashes during times of heavy network activity and improved how transaction fees are estimated when block sizes change. These improvements make the network more reliable and user-friendly.

What this means: While not groundbreaking, these fixes are important for keeping Monero running smoothly and minimizing disruptions for users and node operators.

3. FCMP++ Integration Proposal (September 7, 2025)

Overview: Developer Justin Berman proposed adding Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) to protect Monero against the future threat of quantum computers.

Details: FCMP++ would replace parts of Monero’s cryptography with new methods designed to resist attacks from quantum computers, focusing on key privacy features like stealth addresses and ring signatures. The community is reviewing the proposal, with testing expected later this year.

What this means: This is a promising long-term step to safeguard Monero’s privacy, though it may take time before these changes are fully implemented.

Conclusion

Monero’s recent updates show a clear focus on security (fixing privacy leaks), stability (bug fixes), and future-proofing (quantum-resistant cryptography). While these changes may not immediately affect Monero’s market price, they reinforce its position as a leader in privacy technology.

Could these quantum-resistant upgrades help Monero stand strong against increasing surveillance on other blockchain networks?