What could affect the price of XMR?
Monero’s price is balancing between strong technology and increasing regulatory challenges.
- Qubic’s Mining Power Grab – Controls 38% of the network, risking trust
- Privacy Upgrades – New tech like FCMP++ and Seraphis improve security against future threats
- Global Regulations Tighten – EU’s DAC8 rules threaten exchange access
In-Depth Look
1. Mining Centralization Risk (Negative Impact)
What’s happening:
Qubic now controls 38% of Monero’s mining power (CoinMarketCap) and is using profits from mining XMR to buy and burn its own tokens. If this control grows to over 50%, Qubic could censor transactions or reorganize the blockchain. For example, Kraken stopped accepting XMR deposits on August 17 after spotting unusual activity.
Why it matters:
When one group controls too much mining power, it undermines trust in the network. After Qubic’s rise, Monero’s price dropped 30%, showing how sensitive the market is to these risks. If this continues, it could lead to changes in the protocol or miners leaving the network.
2. Privacy Technology Improvements (Positive Impact)
What’s happening:
Monero plans to introduce Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) and Jamtis stealth addresses in 2025 (Monero Blog). These upgrades aim to protect users against advanced blockchain analysis and future quantum computing threats.
Why it matters:
Better privacy features could make Monero more attractive in markets concerned about surveillance. For example, when Monero introduced CLSAG in 2021, its price rose 76% over the year despite a tough crypto market.
3. Regulatory Pressure (Mixed Impact)
What’s happening:
The European Union’s DAC8 rules target privacy coins like Monero, and the U.S. Treasury’s 2024 sanctions on Tornado Cash show a tough stance. On the other hand, Malaysia is considering crypto-friendly laws that might offer a safer environment.
Why it matters:
Regulations have caused many exchanges to delist Monero, leading to a 12% monthly price drop during 2023-2024. However, if privacy coins become essential for protecting data privacy, Monero could see increased demand, acting like a “Swiss bank account” in the digital world.
Conclusion
Monero’s future depends on whether Qubic’s mining dominance becomes a serious threat or just a challenge the network can handle. At the same time, Monero’s privacy upgrades face growing regulatory pressure. Key price levels to watch are the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $285 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $276, which will show if investors see current prices as a bargain or a warning.
Will Monero’s developers innovate fast enough to stay ahead of both attackers and regulators before liquidity dries up?
What are people saying about XMR?
The Monero community is divided between protecting its decentralized values and dealing with Qubic’s growing control over mining power. Here’s what’s happening right now:
- Qubic’s 51% attack test – Concerns about centralization rise as Monero’s price fluctuates
- Increase in orphan blocks – Miner conflicts raise questions about network stability
- Kraken pauses deposits – Exchange’s caution adds to negative market sentiment
- Technical battle – Price patterns show mixed signals with falling wedge and broken support levels
In-Depth Look
1. @Qubic: Mining Power Grab Bearish
"We’re increasing our mining power through incentives—this process is ongoing."
– @Qubic (28.2K followers · 412K impressions · 2025-07-28 14:54 UTC)
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What this means: Qubic is openly working to control a large portion of Monero’s mining power, reaching up to 38%. This threatens the network’s decentralized nature. By selling the Monero they mine to buy back their own QUBIC tokens, they create financial incentives that could weaken Monero’s security.
2. @cookiedotfun: Rise in Orphan Blocks Mixed
"60 orphan blocks out of 720 blocks—miner conflicts are heating up."
– @cookiedotfun (9.1K followers · 187K impressions · 2025-08-04 12:27 UTC)
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What this means: There’s been a noticeable increase in orphan blocks—blocks that don’t get added to the main blockchain—mostly from unknown miners in early August. This could indicate selfish mining or network stress. While Monero Labs calls it “statistical noise,” if orphan blocks stay above 2%, it might force changes to the protocol.
3. @Kraken: Deposit Freeze Bearish
"Stopping Monero deposits due to 51% attack concerns."
– @Kraken (1.2M followers · 2.8M impressions · 2025-08-17 09:54 UTC)
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What this means: Kraken paused Monero deposits as a precaution after worries about Qubic’s mining dominance. This caused Monero’s price to drop by 19% temporarily. However, the community quickly redistributed mining power, helping to reduce long-term risks.
4. @GMX_IO: XMR/USD Perpetual Contracts Neutral
"Trade Monero with up to 100x leverage—now available on GMX."
– @GMX_IO (312K followers · 1.1M impressions · 2025-06-26 09:46 UTC)
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What this means: GMX launched Monero perpetual contracts in June 2025, increasing trading activity. By August, open interest reached $53.35 million. But high leverage also means bigger price swings, especially with the current network uncertainties.
Conclusion
The outlook for Monero is mixed. On one hand, its strong privacy features keep it attractive. On the other, the risk of mining centralization, especially from Qubic, casts a shadow. Developers are working on solutions like the “Publish or Perish” protocol to prevent attacks, but Qubic’s financial tactics remain a serious threat. Keep an eye on the P2Pool mining share—if it stays above 15%, it could show the community’s strength against centralization. For now, Monero’s future depends on whether its decentralized spirit can outlast well-funded opponents.
What is the latest news about XMR?
Monero is dealing with new security challenges driven by AI, but also showing signs of strong price potential. Here’s the latest update:
- Qubic Releases Flawed AI Model (September 5, 2025) – The group behind a recent attack on Monero launched an AI bot that can’t even do simple math.
- Price Volatility After Attack (September 6, 2025) – Monero’s price dropped 30% after Qubic’s mining control in August but bounced back 50% after community defense plans were introduced.
- Positive Technical Signals (September 4, 2025) – Analysts spotted a pattern suggesting Monero could rise to $344 if it breaks above $244.
In-Depth Look
1. Qubic Releases Flawed AI Model (September 5, 2025)
What happened:
Qubic, the group that tried to take over more than half of Monero’s mining power in August, released an AI model called AIGarth. Unfortunately, the bot can’t handle basic math questions, like “1+1,” which it answered incorrectly. Qubic says the bot focuses on “intelligence over memorization” and plans to improve it through decentralized mining.
Why it matters:
This is a short-term negative for Monero because Qubic’s ongoing experiments create uncertainty about the network’s security. However, since the AI bot is currently ineffective, the risk of a sophisticated attack is lower. The Monero community is working on defenses, such as using special nodes called masternodes to protect the network.
(Source: Decrypt)
2. Price Volatility After Attack (September 6, 2025)
What happened:
In August, Qubic briefly controlled 30% of Monero’s mining power, causing the price of Monero (XMR) to drop by 30%. The community responded with new defense proposals, like the “Publish or Perish” protocol changes, which helped the price recover by 50% from its low point.
Why it matters:
The price rebound shows that investors still believe in Monero’s ability to adapt and stay secure. However, risks remain because of the potential for mining centralization. Some exchanges, like Kraken, temporarily stopped accepting Monero deposits during the attack, showing that there are still operational risks.
(Source: Cryptonarratives)
3. Positive Technical Signals (September 4, 2025)
What happened:
Monero’s price formed a bullish pennant pattern after bouncing off support at $230. This pattern, along with decreasing trading volume during consolidation, often signals a potential price breakout. Analysts are watching for a move above $244, which could push the price up to $344.
Why it matters:
This technical setup is cautiously optimistic but depends on Monero breaking above $244 with strong trading volume. The pattern’s success also depends on avoiding new security problems.
(Source: Crypto.News)
Conclusion
Monero is balancing between the disruptive experiments of Qubic and the strong defenses built by its community. At the same time, technical indicators suggest there could be price gains ahead. The big question is whether Monero’s focus on privacy can help it stay ahead of attackers and regulatory challenges, especially as Asia’s stablecoin market heats up.
What is expected in the development of XMR?
Monero’s development is moving forward with these key updates:
- Full-Chain Membership Proofs (Q4 2025) – Improves privacy and protects against future quantum computer threats.
- Seraphis + Jamtis Protocol (2026) – A new transaction system to make Monero faster and more scalable.
- Publish or Perish Defense (Under Review) – Measures to prevent mining attacks and keep the network secure.
- Monero Browser Wallet (Q1 2026) – A user-friendly browser wallet focused on privacy.
Deep Dive
1. Full-Chain Membership Proofs (Q4 2025)
What it is:
Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) is a new technology that mathematically proves all parts of a transaction belong to the blockchain without revealing any private details. This boosts privacy and adds protection against future quantum computers, which could otherwise break current encryption. The project is funded by Monero’s Community Crowdfunding System (CCS) and led by developer Justin Berman (Monero CCS).
Why it matters:
This upgrade strengthens Monero’s core promise of untraceability and prepares it for future security challenges. However, complex code and potential delays in testing could slow down its release.
2. Seraphis + Jamtis Protocol (2026)
What it is:
Seraphis is a new way to handle transactions that will replace Monero’s current system called RingCT. Along with Jamtis, a new address format, it aims to make transactions smaller, faster, and more private over time. This helps Monero scale as more people use it (Monero Research Lab).
Why it matters:
This could lower transaction fees and improve user experience, making Monero easier to use. But switching to this new system could be tricky and might cause temporary disagreements among network participants.
3. Publish or Perish Defense (Under Review)
What it is:
This proposal targets miners who try to cheat by hiding blocks they find, a tactic seen in recent attacks. It suggests penalties for late block submissions and changes to how mining rewards are split, protecting honest miners (Coinspeaker).
Why it matters:
If adopted, it would help keep mining fair and decentralized. However, implementing these changes could cause short-term disruptions in the network.
4. Monero Browser Wallet (Q1 2026)
What it is:
A new browser extension wallet funded by the community, developed by Spirobel, will allow users to easily access Monero’s privacy features directly from their web browsers. It aims to be as convenient as popular wallets like MetaMask but focused on privacy (Monero CCS).
Why it matters:
This wallet could attract more everyday users who want privacy without technical hassle. Its success depends on smooth integration and strong security checks.
Conclusion
Monero’s roadmap combines advanced privacy improvements (FCMP++, Seraphis) with tools to grow its user base (Browser Wallet) and protect the network (Publish or Perish). While there are technical challenges ahead, these updates reinforce Monero’s position as a leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency. The big question remains: can efforts to keep mining decentralized outpace attempts by large mining groups to control the network?
What updates are there in the XMR code base?
Monero's software has recently received important privacy updates and key improvements to its core technology.
- Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025) – Fixed a security issue where bad actors could track users through certain wallet interactions.
- FCMP++ Upgrade Proposal (September 7, 2025) – Suggested a new way to verify transactions more efficiently without exposing user balances.
- CLI/GUI v0.18.4.1 Update (July 2025) – Improved stability and added support for Trezor hardware wallets.
Deep Dive
1. Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025)
What happened: A security flaw was found that allowed malicious remote nodes (computers on the network) to potentially identify users by analyzing transaction details when wallets connected to them.
The update strengthened how transaction data is checked and filtered on the user’s wallet side to block suspicious responses. This fix was applied to all current Monero versions, so users need to update their wallets and node software.
Why it matters: This update makes Monero safer by protecting users from being tracked on the network, reinforcing its promise of strong privacy. (Source)
2. FCMP++ Upgrade Proposal (September 7, 2025)
What happened: A new proposal called Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) was introduced by developer Justin Berman. It’s a cryptographic method that allows the network to verify transaction outputs without revealing wallet balances.
FCMP++ builds on existing technology called Bulletproofs+ to create smaller, faster proofs. This could reduce the size of the blockchain and make the network more scalable. The community is reviewing this idea, with testing planned for late 2025.
Why it matters: This proposal could help Monero run more efficiently by lowering the computing power needed to participate in the network by about 15-20%. This makes it easier for more people to run nodes, supporting decentralization. (Source)
3. CLI/GUI v0.18.4.1 Update (July 2025)
What happened: This update focused on fixing over a dozen bugs to improve stability. It added support for Trezor Safe 5 hardware wallets and optimized mining with P2Pool.
Other improvements included lowering CPU use during wallet rescans, better handling of multisignature transactions, a new dark mode for the GUI, and tools to estimate transaction fees.
Why it matters: These changes improve the user experience and reliability of Monero software but don’t represent major shifts. Miners and node operators will notice smoother performance. (Source)
Conclusion
Monero’s developers are actively balancing urgent security fixes with long-term upgrades to keep it the most trusted privacy-focused blockchain. Recent patches protect users now, while proposals like FCMP++ aim to make the network more scalable and accessible.
Looking ahead, how will Monero continue evolving to tackle challenges like mining centralization while staying true to its decentralized, privacy-first mission?
Why did the price of XMR fall?
Monero (XMR) dropped 1.9% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 1.48%. The main reasons are:
- Concerns Over Qubic’s Mining Control – Qubic is trying to control more than 30% of Monero’s mining power, raising worries about the network’s security.
- Price Breakdown – Monero’s price fell below important support levels, indicating a downward trend.
- Market Sentiment – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 32 (“Fear”), increasing selling pressure.
Deep Dive
1. Qubic’s Mining Dominance (Negative Impact)
Overview: Qubic, a mining pool connected to IOTA co-founder Sergey Ivancheglo, is encouraging miners to join by offering QUBIC token rewards. As of August 4, 2025, Qubic controls about 38% of Monero’s mining power, which raises the risk of attacks that could harm the network’s security (Cointelegraph).
What this means: Monero’s strength lies in being decentralized and private. If one group controls too much mining power, it threatens these core values. This has made some exchanges cautious—Kraken, for example, temporarily paused Monero deposits in August 2025—and has shaken investor confidence.
What to watch: The share of mining power held by P2Pool, a decentralized mining pool. If it stays below 15%, Qubic’s control could become more problematic.
2. Technical Weakness (Negative Impact)
Overview: Monero’s price fell below the $269 support level, with technical indicators like RSI14 at 45.07 (neutral to bearish) and MACD showing negative momentum (-0.91665). The 7-day moving average at $292.48 is now acting as resistance.
What this means: These signs suggest traders are selling amid increased price swings. The 24-hour trading volume rose slightly to $103 million, confirming bearish sentiment.
Key level to watch: If Monero stays below $290, it could trigger automated sell-offs targeting the 200-day moving average at $276.
3. Broader Market Drag (Mixed Impact)
Overview: The total cryptocurrency market cap fell 1.48% in 24 hours, with altcoins generally underperforming Bitcoin (which now holds 58.18% market dominance). Monero’s 1.9% drop fits this pattern.
What this means: Because Monero is closely tied to the altcoin market (Altcoin Season Index: 71/100), it is vulnerable to wider market sell-offs. Still, Monero has shown some strength with an 8.56% gain over the past 30 days compared to other coins.
Conclusion
Monero’s recent price drop is due to concerns about network security, technical price weakness, and overall market caution. While Monero’s privacy features remain strong, its near-term outlook depends on reducing Qubic’s mining influence and regaining support above $290.
Key watch: Will Monero’s community-driven miners be able to limit Qubic’s hashrate growth in the next 48 hours?