Why did the price of XMR go up?

Monero (XMR) increased by 3.09% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market’s 1.71% gain. This follows a strong weekly rise of 16.07%, reflecting growing interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. The main factors behind this trend are:

1. Privacy Coin Rally – Increased demand amid ongoing regulatory discussions.
2. Technical Breakout – Positive market signals and breaking key price levels.
3. Network Stability – Recovery from earlier concerns about mining control.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Growing Demand for Privacy Coins (Positive Outlook)

Summary:
Monero’s recent price increase is similar to big gains seen in other privacy coins like Zcash (+133% weekly) and Dash (+61.4%). This surge is driven by renewed interest in privacy technology as governments worldwide debate regulations. For example, the European Union plans to ban privacy coins by 2027, and discussions around Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) raise concerns about financial surveillance. These factors have ironically made privacy coins like Monero more attractive.

What this means for investors:
Privacy coins are seen as a way to protect financial privacy, leading to a “flight to privacy” where more people buy these coins. Monero’s shielded transactions, which hide sender and receiver details, increased by 15.5% month-over-month (Yahoo Finance), showing real-world use is growing.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on EU regulatory updates and the upcoming Monero FCMP++ upgrade, which will improve security by making the network resistant to future quantum computer attacks.

2. Positive Technical Signals (Bullish Outlook)

Summary:
Monero’s price recently moved above an important technical level called the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $323 and is trading above its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $311.54. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68.64, indicating there’s still room for the price to rise before it becomes overbought.

What this means for traders:
If Monero stays above $323, it could aim for the next resistance level around $341, which was a recent high. The MACD indicator also shows bullish momentum. However, if the price falls below $311.84 (the 38.2% Fibonacci level), some investors might start taking profits, which could lead to a short-term pullback.

3. Mining Centralization Concerns Improving (Mixed Outlook)

Summary:
In August 2025, a mining group called Qubic attempted a 51% attack on Monero’s network, causing a 20% price drop. Since then, decentralized mining pools like P2Pool have increased their share of the network’s computing power to over 15%, up from less than 10% before the attack.

What this means:
This shift toward decentralization has helped restore confidence in Monero’s network security. However, the network is still somewhat vulnerable because Qubic controls about 25% of the mining power (CoinMarketCap Community).

Conclusion

Monero’s recent price increase is driven by strong sector momentum, positive technical trends, and a partial recovery from mining-related risks. While regulatory challenges remain a concern, the current environment favors privacy coins as investors seek protection from growing financial surveillance.

Key point to watch: Can Monero maintain its price above the $323 Fibonacci level? If it does, it could test highs near $420 seen in 2025. If not, a pullback toward $292 (the 30-day SMA) is possible.

What could affect the price of XMR?

Monero’s price is caught between growing demand for privacy and increasing regulatory challenges.

1. Regulatory Crackdowns (Bearish) – The EU plans to ban privacy coins like Monero by 2027, which could limit trading options.
2. Mining Centralization Risks (Bearish) – One mining pool, Qubic, controls 38% of Monero’s mining power, raising concerns about potential attacks.
3. Privacy Technology Upgrades (Bullish) – New features like FCMP++ and research into quantum resistance improve Monero’s privacy and usefulness.

Deep Dive

1. Regulatory Challenges (Negative Impact)

Overview:
Starting in 2027, the European Union’s Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) will prohibit banks and crypto companies from dealing with Monero (Yahoo Finance). Similar restrictions have already appeared in places like Dubai, and U.S. authorities have taken action against privacy-focused tools such as the Samourai Wallet.

What this means:
These rules could lead to Monero being removed from regulated exchanges, making it harder to buy or sell and reducing interest from large investors. In the past, Monero’s price dropped between 5% and 14% after similar regulatory news, like Kraken’s deposit freeze in 2025.

2. Mining Centralization & Security Concerns (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Qubic Pool currently controls 38% of Monero’s mining power (X post), which raises the risk of a “51% attack” — where a single group could potentially manipulate the blockchain. In September 2025, Monero experienced an 18-block reorganization that erased 36 minutes of transactions, highlighting these risks (Bitcoinist).

What this means:
Monero’s community encourages decentralized mining through options like P2Pool and recommends waiting for more transaction confirmations to increase security. However, if mining power remains concentrated, trust in the network could weaken. When Qubic first gained this level of control in August 2025, Monero’s price fell by 25%.

3. Protocol Improvements & Growing Adoption (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Monero’s 2025 development plan includes Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) to improve transparency without sacrificing privacy, and CARROT integration to discourage selfish mining. The use of shielded (private) transactions increased by 15.5% month-over-month in October 2025, showing rising demand (Cryptonews).

What this means:
These technical upgrades reinforce Monero’s position as a leader in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. Historically, such improvements have led to strong price gains, like the 150% surge in Q2 2025 after the CLSAG upgrade. Additionally, Monero’s integration with platforms like THORChain and Haven expands its use in decentralized finance (DeFi).

Conclusion

Monero’s future price depends on how well it can navigate regulatory pressures while maintaining its privacy features. Upgrades and growing user interest (Twitter followers grew 21.63% year-over-year) are positive signs, but risks from mining centralization and upcoming EU bans remain serious challenges. Will Monero’s commitment to decentralization be strong enough to overcome regulatory hurdles? Keep an eye on Qubic’s mining share and the rollout of FCMP++ features.

What are people saying about XMR?

The Monero community is divided between optimism from positive price patterns and concerns about mining centralization. Here’s the latest:

1. Qubic’s mining dominance raises fears of a 51% attack
2. A falling wedge breakout suggests a potential rally to $276–$280
3. Price predictions for 2030 vary widely, from $423 to over $6,000

In-Depth Look

1. Mining Pool Power Struggle: Qubic’s Dominance Raises Concerns bearish

Qubic, a mining pool, recently mined 80% of Monero blocks within two hours, reorganizing six blocks and isolating 60. This caused Kraken, a major exchange, to temporarily freeze Monero (XMR) deposits. Currently, Qubic controls about 38% of the total mining power (hashrate), which worries traders about the risks of centralization.
– Source: @Qubic on X (formerly Twitter)
Why it matters: This is a negative sign for Monero because having too much mining power in one place threatens the network’s decentralization. Decentralization is crucial for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero.

2. Privacy Technology vs. Economic Reality: Balancing Strengths and Risks mixed

Monero’s cryptography is very strong, but some experts point out that spending around $10,000 a day could potentially buy enough mining power to control the network. This highlights a risk: even with advanced privacy features like RingCT and stealth addresses, low mining costs compared to Monero’s $6 billion market value could lead to centralization.
– Source: @ddadybayo on X
Why it matters: This is a neutral to slightly negative outlook. While Monero’s technology remains top-notch, economic factors might weaken its privacy if mining centralization continues.

3. Technical Analysis: Falling Wedge Breakout Signals Potential Upside bullish

Technical analysts note that Monero’s price is near a support level around $269. A breakout above $276 could trigger a 4% price increase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.57 suggests there’s room for upward movement. This pattern aligns with recent weekly gains of about 15.85%.
– Source: CoinMarketCap Community Post
Why it matters: This is a positive short-term signal, but it needs confirmation through trading volume. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $214.59 offers strong historical support for the price.

Conclusion

Opinions on Monero (XMR) are mixed. On one hand, technical indicators and long-term demand for privacy are positive signs. On the other hand, mining centralization and regulatory challenges pose risks. The community successfully reduced Qubic’s mining share from 38% to 35% by August 18, which helped ease some concerns. Keep an eye on the P2Pool mining share (currently 15%) as a key indicator of decentralization health. For a privacy coin like Monero, success depends not just on strong cryptography but also on a balanced economic ecosystem.

What is the latest news about XMR?

Monero is facing challenges from security concerns and new regulations, even as demand for privacy grows. Here are the key updates:

1. Concerns Over Mining Control (August 4, 2025) – A mining group called Qubic tried to take over a large part of Monero’s mining power, raising fears of a 51% attack.
2. Privacy Coin Surge (October 2, 2025) – Monero’s price jumped 13.6% in a week, reflecting strong interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.
3. EU Plans Privacy Coin Ban (October 2, 2025) – The European Union will ban privacy coins like Monero by 2027, adding regulatory pressure.

In-Depth Look

1. Concerns Over Mining Control (August 4, 2025)

What happened: Qubic, a mining pool connected to the co-founder of IOTA, increased its share of Monero’s mining power to 38% in July 2025. This raised alarms about a possible 51% attack, where a group controlling more than half the mining power could censor transactions or change the blockchain’s history. The Monero community responded by encouraging more decentralized mining through P2Pool. However, during Qubic’s rise, the network faced issues like orphaned blocks and denial-of-service attacks, showing some weaknesses.

Why it matters: Monero’s privacy depends heavily on decentralized mining. Although Qubic’s control has decreased, this event exposed how relatively inexpensive attacks could be ($7,000 per day) and sparked discussions about improving Monero’s security. (CoinMarketCap Community)

2. Privacy Coin Surge (October 2, 2025)

What happened: Monero’s price reached $333.01, up 15.85% over the week. Other privacy coins like Zcash and Dash also saw big gains during a broader market rally called “Uptober.” The number of private (shielded) transactions on Monero increased by 15.5% month-over-month, showing growing interest in financial privacy amid debates over government digital currencies and surveillance.

Why it matters: This price increase highlights how privacy coins are seen as a way to protect financial privacy against centralized systems. However, Monero’s daily trading volume is lower than some competitors, which could mean more price swings and less liquidity. (CoinDesk)

3. EU Plans Privacy Coin Ban (October 2, 2025)

What happened: The European Union has finalized a ban on privacy coins like Monero as part of its Anti-Money Laundering Regulation, effective in 2027. This means exchanges and banks in the EU will have to delist or freeze Monero holdings. This follows similar restrictions in Dubai from 2023. In the U.S., authorities continue to crack down on developers of privacy tools, adding to the regulatory challenges.

Why it matters: Although the ban won’t start immediately, it puts pressure on Monero’s trading and adoption by institutions. The coin’s future may depend on users trading in less regulated areas or through decentralized exchanges. (Yahoo Finance)

Conclusion

Monero is navigating strong technical growth alongside serious challenges. The attempt by Qubic to control mining power tested its decentralized nature, while upcoming regulations threaten its availability on mainstream platforms. The question remains: can Monero’s community and privacy technology keep ahead of increasing global restrictions?

What is expected in the development of XMR?

Monero’s roadmap is focused on improving privacy, making mining more decentralized, and protecting against future quantum computer threats.

1. CARROT Mining Protocol (Q4 2025) – Encourages smaller miners to participate more, reducing the control of big mining pools.
2. FCMP++ Integration (Q4 2025) – Strengthens Monero’s defenses against quantum computers to keep transactions secure.
3. Seraphis & Jamtis (2026) – New transaction technology that boosts anonymity and lowers transaction costs.

Deep Dive

1. CARROT Mining Protocol (Q4 2025)

Overview:
CARROT (Competitive ASIC-Resistant Reward Truncation) is designed to make Monero mining less centralized by giving relatively higher rewards to smaller miners compared to large mining pools. This comes in response to one mining pool, Qubic, controlling 38% of the network’s mining power in July 2025, which raised concerns about centralization.

What this means:

• Positive: Makes the network safer by reducing the risk of a 51% attack, where one group controls most of the mining power.
• Challenge: Success depends on miners choosing to switch; if they don’t, centralization could continue longer.

2. Full-Chain Membership Proofs++ (FCMP++) (Q4 2025)

Overview:
FCMP++ is an upgrade to Monero’s cryptography that helps protect transactions from future quantum computers, which could potentially break current encryption methods. Developed by j-berman (proposal), it uses advanced zero-knowledge proofs to keep transaction details hidden even against these powerful computers.

What this means:

• Positive: Positions Monero (XMR) as a leader in privacy coins that are prepared for future quantum threats.
• Challenge: The technology is complex and still being tested, which might slow down its rollout.

3. Seraphis Codebase & Jamtis (2026)

Overview:
Seraphis will replace the current transaction system (RingCT) with a more efficient one, while Jamtis introduces reusable payment codes to make stealth addresses easier to use. Together, these changes will reduce transaction sizes by about 30% and improve privacy.

What this means:

• Positive: Lower transaction fees and better user experience could attract more users.
• Neutral: The development will take 12 to 18 months, so the benefits won’t be immediate.

Conclusion

Monero’s roadmap focuses on strengthening security (with CARROT and FCMP++) and enhancing privacy (with Seraphis and Jamtis) to address mining centralization and future quantum threats. While there are technical challenges ahead, successful implementation could reinforce Monero’s position as the top privacy-focused cryptocurrency.

How will regulatory scrutiny evolve as Monero’s anonymity features advance?

What updates are there in the XMR code base?

Monero’s software has recently received important security updates and community-supported improvements.

1. Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025) – Fixed a vulnerability involving remote node connections.
2. Fluorine Fermi Updates (July 30–31, 2025) – Command-line and graphical wallet updates with key bug fixes.
3. Selfish Mining Defense (August 29, 2025) – Proposed changes to prevent mining attacks by Qubic.

In-Depth Look

1. Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025)

What happened: A critical update fixed a privacy issue that could expose user transactions when connecting to untrustworthy remote nodes.

The update makes sure wallet software checks that remote nodes are trustworthy, stopping attackers from linking transactions to users’ IP addresses through compromised nodes.

Why it matters: This strengthens Monero’s core promise of privacy, making it safer for users who rely on third-party nodes. (Source)

2. Fluorine Fermi Updates (July 30–31, 2025)

What happened: New versions of the command-line interface (CLI) and graphical user interface (GUI) wallets were released, focusing on stability and fixing minor bugs.

These updates improved wallet syncing and fixed rare crashes reported by node operators. The GUI also improved integration with Tor, enhancing anonymous network connections.

Why it matters: This is a routine update that helps keep the user experience smooth but doesn’t add major new features. (Source)

3. Selfish Mining Defense (August 29, 2025)

What happened: Developers proposed a “Publish or Perish” system to fight against mining attacks by Qubic, which controls about 33% of the network’s mining power.

The plan includes a soft fork that reduces rewards for miners who delay sharing new blocks, and a hard fork that splits rewards fairly during chain conflicts. This aims to make selfish mining unprofitable without needing a majority of honest miners.

Why it matters: If adopted, this would reduce risks of mining centralization caused by Qubic’s tactics, which recently led to 18-block reorganizations on the network. (Source)

Conclusion

Monero’s development remains focused on security and community-driven solutions to new challenges. While these updates help protect decentralization and privacy, ongoing mining centralization risks—like those from Qubic—need close attention. The speed at which the network can agree on and implement these changes will be key to maintaining Monero’s strong privacy protections.