What could affect the price of XMR?

Monero’s price reflects a balance between its privacy technology advancements and increasing regulatory challenges.

1. Upcoming Protocol Upgrades – Positive if more users adopt enhanced privacy features.
2. Mining Centralization Risks – Negative due to Qubic controlling 38% of Monero’s mining power.
3. EU Privacy Coin Ban (2027) – Negative regulatory pressure ahead.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Protocol Upgrades & Development (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Monero’s community is funding projects like Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) to improve protection against future quantum computing threats and strengthen transaction privacy. New technologies such as Seraphis/Jamtis may replace older privacy methods like ring signatures, fixing weaknesses highlighted in recent research.

What this means:
If these upgrades succeed, Monero could reinforce its position as a leader in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, attracting users concerned about surveillance. Past upgrades, like CLSAG in 2020, led to about a 20% price increase after implementation.

2. Mining Centralization Threats (Negative Outlook)

Overview:
In August 2025, the Qubic mining pool briefly controlled 38% of Monero’s total mining power (hashrate). They took advantage of incentives by selling mined XMR to buy back their own QUBIC tokens. This concentration raises the risk of a 51% attack and could weaken privacy if the selection of decoy transactions is manipulated (Cointelegraph).

What this means:
Mining centralization goes against Monero’s core principle of decentralization. During Qubic’s dominance, the network’s orphan block rate rose to 2.3%, and Monero’s price dropped 12%. To reduce this risk, decentralized mining pools like P2Pool need to increase their share of the network.

3. Regulatory Crackdowns (Negative Outlook)

Overview:
The European Union’s upcoming Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) in 2027 will prohibit banks from dealing with privacy coins, similar to restrictions Dubai implemented in 2023. India’s move toward a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) also sidelines private cryptocurrencies, labeling them as “unbacked” (Decrypt).

What this means:
Exchanges are delisting Monero, such as Kraken suspending XMR trading in 2025, which reduces liquidity. However, Monero’s on-chain transaction volume reached a high of 23,000 transactions per day in April 2025, indicating strong underground demand that may help offset regulatory impacts.

Conclusion

Monero’s price will depend on how well it can innovate to stay ahead of regulatory pressures and mining centralization. While upgrades like FCMP++ could spark renewed growth, the EU ban and Qubic’s mining dominance present serious challenges. Will Monero’s efforts to maintain decentralization overcome regulatory hurdles? Keep an eye on mining pool distribution and the 200-day moving average at $290, a crucial support level.

What are people saying about XMR?

The Monero community is divided between concerns over mining centralization and optimistic price trends. Here’s what’s making headlines:

1. Qubic’s 51% attack risk – Mining pool control raises security worries
2. Falling wedge breakout – Traders target $276–$280 if bullish momentum holds
3. GMX launches 100x leverage – High-risk trading increases market swings
4. Long-term price predictions – Estimates range from $500 to $5,828 by 2030

In-Depth Look

1. @Qubic: Mining Pool Control Raises Concerns bearish

Qubic says it now controls 38% of Monero’s mining power, up from just 2% in May 2025. This concentration of mining power worries experts because it could lead to a 51% attack, where one group controls the majority of the network. Such control could allow them to block or censor transactions.
– @Qubic (82K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-08-04 11:29 UTC)
See original post
What this means: This is a negative sign for Monero (XMR). Centralized mining goes against the decentralized nature of the network and might cause some exchanges to stop listing Monero.

2. @GMX_IO: New High-Leverage Trading Options bullish

GMX introduced XMR/USD perpetual contracts with up to 100x leverage on June 26, 2025. This attracted over $53 million in open trades within weeks.
– @GMX_IO (312K followers · 890K impressions · 2025-06-26 09:46 UTC)
See original post
What this means: This boosts liquidity and trading activity, which is positive. However, it also increases price volatility and risk, as shown by high funding rates indicating speculative trading.

3. CoinMarketCap Community: Mixed Technical Signals neutral

A falling wedge pattern on short-term charts points to a possible price rise to $276–$280. But the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.57 suggests weakening buying momentum.
– Anonymous trader (1.2K votes · 2025-05-04 10:20 UTC)
See original post
What this means: The technical outlook is mixed. While some traders expect a short-term price increase, other indicators warn of a potential pullback to around $258.

Summary

The outlook for Monero is mixed. On one side, there are risks from Qubic’s growing mining dominance, which threatens the network’s security and decentralization. On the other, new trading products and chart patterns suggest potential price gains. Keep an eye on the share of decentralized mining pools like P2Pool, which currently stands at 15%. If Qubic’s control exceeds 50%, it could trigger exchange delistings and downward price pressure.

What is the latest news about XMR?

Monero is showing strong signs in its price movement while facing regulatory challenges, as privacy-focused cryptocurrencies gain more attention. Here’s the latest update:

1. XMR Rises 3% Amid Shifts in Altcoins (October 9, 2025) – Monero’s price increased alongside Zcash’s impressive 35% jump, as investors look toward privacy coins.
2. Technical Breakout Suggests Upward Momentum (October 7, 2025) – Monero’s price moved above its 200-day moving average, aiming for a resistance level at $344.
3. India Advances Digital Currency, Challenging Privacy Coins (October 7, 2025) – India’s focus on a central bank digital currency (CBDC) backed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could limit the growth of privacy coins like Monero.

In-Depth Look

1. XMR Rises 3% Amid Shifts in Altcoins (October 9, 2025)

Summary:
Monero’s price increased by 3-4% within a day, following a 35% surge in Zcash. This happened even though Bitcoin’s price dropped below $122,000 and the overall market was cautious ahead of an important speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about inflation and interest rates.

What this means:
The rise in Monero and other privacy coins shows growing interest in cryptocurrencies that offer more privacy, especially as concerns about surveillance increase. However, Monero’s gains were smaller compared to Zcash’s. Investors might be weighing the risks of upcoming regulations, such as the European Union’s planned ban on privacy coins in 2027, while also betting on short-term price movements. (Cryptopotato)

2. Technical Breakout Suggests Upward Momentum (October 7, 2025)

Summary:
Monero’s price closed above its 200-day moving average, a key technical indicator that traders watch closely. This average was between $310 and $326, and the last time Monero was above it was in April 2025. Analysts also noticed increasing trading volume and a pattern of higher lows, suggesting strength. If Monero breaks above the $344 resistance level, it could aim for $402.

What this means:
Crossing above the 200-day moving average is generally seen as a positive sign, often leading to longer price increases. But if Monero can’t hold above $344, the price might settle around $300 for a while. The trading activity between $310.12 and $326.36 shows that buyers are actively accumulating Monero. (Crypto.news)

3. India Advances Digital Currency, Challenging Privacy Coins (October 7, 2025)

Summary:
India announced plans to launch a central bank digital currency (CBDC) supported by the Reserve Bank of India. At the same time, government officials, including Union Minister Piyush Goyal, criticized private cryptocurrencies like Monero for lacking government backing. Although Monero is not banned outright, this stance signals caution.

What this means:
This development is somewhat negative for Monero’s growth in India. While it’s not a ban, India’s support for its own digital currency may slow down the adoption of privacy coins. Experts expect new rules that require cryptocurrency issuers to maintain transparent and auditable reserves, which could make it harder for privacy-focused coins to operate freely. (Decrypt)

Conclusion

Monero is showing technical strength with its recent price breakout but faces challenges from regulatory developments, especially in India. The recent rally in Zcash highlights how volatile the privacy coin sector can be. The key question now is whether Monero can break through the $344 resistance level and continue its upward trend, or if it will face limits at that price point.

What is expected in the development of XMR?

Monero’s roadmap focuses on improving privacy while addressing network security challenges:

1. FCMP++ Integration (Q4 2025) – Introducing quantum-resistant privacy technology.
2. Feather Wallet Development (Ongoing) – Making the wallet easier to use.
3. Post-Reorg Protocol Changes (2026) – Reducing risks from mining centralization.

In-Depth Look

1. FCMP++ Integration & CARROT Review (Q4 2025)

What it is: Monero plans to replace its current privacy method, called ring signatures, with a new system called Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++). This upgrade aims to protect older transactions from future quantum computer attacks. Developer j-berman is leading this work, which also includes reviewing CARROT, a technology designed to enable secure atomic swaps (exchanging cryptocurrencies directly).
Why it matters: This is a positive step for Monero’s long-term security and privacy. However, because it needs to work with existing transactions, the upgrade could take longer than expected.

2. Feather Wallet + BTCPay Server Plugin (Ongoing)

What it is: Community-backed projects are improving Feather Wallet, a lightweight and user-friendly Monero wallet, and integrating Monero into BTCPay Server, a self-hosted payment system (July 2025 update).
Why it matters: These improvements could make Monero easier to use and accept for payments, encouraging wider adoption. However, integrating with payment systems may face regulatory challenges because of Monero’s strong privacy features.

3. Bulletproofs++ Upgrade (2026)

What it is: Bulletproofs++ is an upgrade to Monero’s technology that reduces the size of transactions and speeds up their verification by about 30% (roadmap).
Why it matters: Smaller, faster transactions mean lower fees and better privacy. While this is good news for scalability, the lack of a fixed timeline means it might take some time to implement.

4. Network Security Overhaul (Post-September 2025)

What it is: Following a rare 18-block reorganization event in September 2025 (Bitcoinist report), Monero developers are considering new security measures like rolling checkpoints and ChainLocks-style finality. These aim to prevent mining pools with large shares of the network’s power—such as Qubic’s 38%—from controlling the blockchain.
Why it matters: If these fixes are delayed, it could hurt trust in Monero’s security in the short term. But addressing mining centralization is essential to keep the network decentralized and trustworthy.

Conclusion

Monero’s roadmap highlights key upgrades to protect privacy against future threats (FCMP++) and improve user experience (Feather Wallet). However, urgent work on network security to prevent mining centralization will likely take center stage in 2026. As regulatory pressures and technical challenges grow, it remains to be seen how well Monero’s commitment to privacy will hold up in this evolving landscape.

What updates are there in the XMR code base?

Monero’s software updates focus on strengthening privacy and security with important recent fixes.

1. Privacy Leak Patch (August 26, 2025) – Fixed a vulnerability that could expose user identities through remote nodes.
2. Stability Improvements (July 25, 2025) – Routine bug fixes to improve wallet and network reliability.
3. Daemon Vulnerability Fixes (April 5, 2025) – Protected network nodes from attacks that could disrupt service.

Deep Dive

1. Privacy Leak Patch (August 26, 2025)

Overview: This update fixed a serious issue where malicious remote nodes could reveal user identities by exploiting transaction data. It now enforces stricter checks on data coming from these nodes.

Monero wallets often use remote nodes to save resources, but if those nodes are controlled by attackers, they could potentially track transactions. The patch adds cryptographic safeguards to prevent this kind of data leak, so even compromised nodes can’t trace users.

What this means: This is a positive development for Monero’s core promise of privacy. Users can safely use third-party nodes without risking their anonymity. (Source)

2. Stability Improvements (July 25, 2025)

Overview: Fixed bugs that caused delays in wallet updates and errors in fee calculations, improving overall user experience.

Problems included slow wallet refreshes and occasional incorrect fee estimates. The update optimized how the software handles data and improved the fee calculation process to reduce delays and mistakes.

What this means: This is a routine update that helps the software run more smoothly. It doesn’t change how Monero works but shows ongoing active development. (Source)

3. Daemon Vulnerability Fixes (April 5, 2025)

Overview: Patched security holes that allowed attackers to crash network nodes or slow down block processing.

Attackers could send malformed data to nodes, causing them to crash or become unresponsive. The update added limits on data flow and stricter checks on incoming information to protect against these denial-of-service (DoS) attacks.

What this means: This strengthens the network’s resilience against attacks, supporting Monero’s long-term stability. Stronger nodes help defend against threats like recent attempts to dominate mining power. (Source)

Conclusion

Monero’s recent updates focus on protecting user privacy while making the network more secure and reliable. These fixes address important vulnerabilities, but external challenges like mining centralization remain a concern. It will be important to watch how Monero continues to promote decentralization to counterbalance these risks.

Why did the price of XMR go up?

Monero (XMR) increased by 3.03% to $334.02 over the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which dropped by 0.6%. The main factors behind this rise include positive technical signals, trading activity near key price levels, and renewed interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.

1. Technical Breakout – Surpassed $330 resistance, aiming for $350 and above
2. Liquidity Squeeze – Many short positions clustered between $343-$350 could push prices higher
3. Privacy Narrative – Changes in regulations highlight Monero’s role as a privacy coin

Deep Dive

1. Technical Momentum (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
On October 8, Monero broke through a key resistance level at $330, sparking upward momentum. The 200-day moving average, a common indicator used to identify trends, shifted to support at $290.51, signaling a stronger upward trend.

What this means:

• The MACD Histogram reading of +1.92 indicates growing bullish momentum (source).
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.74 shows Monero is not yet overbought, leaving room for further price increases.
• Fibonacci extension levels suggest Monero could reach $362 if it breaks above $344.

What to watch:
If Monero closes above $344 on a daily basis, it may trigger automated buying that could push prices toward $360-$388.

2. Liquidity-Driven Rally (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Data shows a concentration of short-sellers (those betting on price declines) between $343 and $350.

What this means:

• If these short positions are forced to close (buy back), it could create a “short squeeze,” driving prices higher.
• Trading volume over the past 24 hours rose nearly 10% to $255 million, indicating strong interest from larger investors.
• A 30-day return of +23.07% suggests accumulation of Monero before this breakout.

What to watch:
Order books on exchanges show few sell orders up to $358, which means less resistance to upward price movement.

3. Privacy Coin Demand (Mixed Outlook)

Overview:
India’s recent announcement about its central bank digital currency (CBDC) on October 7 raised privacy concerns. Meanwhile, Zcash, another privacy coin, rallied 35%, boosting the sector.

What this means:

• Monero benefits from being one of the most established privacy coins (source).
• However, the European Union plans to ban privacy coins by 2027, which could limit Monero’s long-term growth.

Conclusion

Monero’s recent price increase is driven by strong technical signals, trading dynamics, and growing demand for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. While short-term trends favor buyers, investors should watch the $344 resistance level closely and be mindful of regulatory risks.

Key point to watch: Can Monero stay above the 200-day moving average at $290 during any price pullbacks? Holding this level would support the ongoing upward trend.