Why did the price of XMR fall?
Monero (XMR) dropped 7.56% in the last 24 hours to $404.15, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell about 3.78% over the past week. Here are the main reasons behind this move:
- EU privacy coin ban announcement – The upcoming 2027 ban on privacy coins from exchanges is causing concern.
- Profit-taking after a big rally – XMR jumped 63.66% in the last 90 days, leading some investors to cash out.
- Technical resistance – XMR couldn’t break above $410, and indicators suggest it was overbought.
Deep Dive
1. Regulatory Crackdown (Negative Impact)
What happened: The European Union announced new rules that will take effect in July 2027. These rules ban privacy coins like Monero (XMR) from being listed on exchanges and require ID checks for transactions over €1,000 (source).
Why it matters: Even though the ban is a few years away, it creates uncertainty about Monero’s future availability on major exchanges and its wider adoption. Past examples, like Binance delisting XMR in 2024, show that such moves can hurt prices.
What to watch: Look for more trading on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which are harder to regulate, and how other countries respond to these rules.
2. Profit-Taking After Rally (Mixed Impact)
What happened: Monero’s price surged 63.66% over the past three months, reaching nearly $470 on November 9. The recent 24-hour drop fits with a broader market pullback and some big sell-offs in futures trading (about $12 million in XMR futures liquidated).
Why it matters: After a strong rally, many traders are cashing in profits. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool that measures if an asset is overbought or oversold, hit 86.81 (above 70 is considered overbought), signaling a likely short-term correction. Trading volume also dropped by 4.77% to $301 million, showing less buying interest.
What to watch: Support levels around the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $330.76 and whether XMR can hold above $390 to keep the trend stable.
3. Technical Resistance & Sentiment Shift (Negative Impact)
What happened: Monero hit a strong resistance level at $410, a price point that has been difficult to surpass for years. It also failed to break the Fibonacci retracement level at $425.94, a common technical analysis tool.
Why it matters: The inability to move past $410 triggered automatic sell orders from trading algorithms. There’s also a bearish divergence, meaning the price dropped even though some momentum indicators (like the MACD histogram) were still positive.
What to watch: If Monero closes below $390, it could fall further toward $376, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Conclusion
Monero’s recent price drop is due to a mix of regulatory concerns, investors taking profits after a strong rally, and technical signs of a market pullback. While Monero’s core privacy features remain strong, the EU’s upcoming ban has added uncertainty for the medium term.
Key point to monitor: Will Monero hold above $390, or will broader market weakness push it lower? Keep an eye on exchange activity and privacy-focused transaction data for signs of strength.
What could affect the price of XMR?
Monero’s price is caught between advances in privacy technology and increasing government regulations.
- EU Privacy Coin Ban (Bearish) – The European Union plans to ban Monero (XMR) trading on regulated exchanges by 2027, which could reduce how easily it can be bought and sold.
- FCMP++ Upgrade (Bullish) – A major upgrade expected in 2025 will improve Monero’s privacy features using new technology that resists future quantum computer attacks.
- Mining Centralization Risks (Mixed) – A single group briefly controlled 25% of Monero’s mining power in 2025, raising concerns about network security.
Deep Dive
1. EU Privacy Coin Ban (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Starting July 2027, the European Union will ban privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero, Zcash, and Dash from regulated exchanges. Additionally, any crypto transactions over €1,000 will require identity verification. This move follows a global trend of governments cracking down on privacy coins due to concerns about illegal activities.
What this means: Removing Monero from major exchanges could make it harder to trade and reduce interest from institutional investors, which may put downward pressure on its price. However, decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which operate without central control, might still allow trading and help maintain some demand. The two-year notice period gives the community time to adjust but also creates uncertainty about Monero’s future accessibility.
Learn more at CoinMarketCap
2. FCMP++ Protocol Upgrade (Bullish Impact)
Overview: Monero plans to launch the Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) upgrade by late 2025. This update will replace the current ring signature method with a new type of cryptography designed to be secure even against future quantum computers. This will enhance both privacy and the ability to scale the network.
What this means: Stronger privacy features could attract more users who are concerned about surveillance and data privacy. This upgrade might boost Monero’s popularity and price, similar to how Zcash saw gains after its own privacy improvements. Technical analysis also shows promising patterns suggesting a potential price increase above $410.
Read more on Yahoo Finance
3. Mining Centralization & Security (Mixed Impact)
Overview: In August 2025, a project called Qubic, focused on artificial intelligence, briefly controlled 25% of Monero’s mining power. This led to an 18-block reorganization of the blockchain and some denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks.
What this means: When a single group controls a large portion of mining power, it can threaten the security and trustworthiness of the network. This centralization risk may discourage some investors. However, Monero’s community actively promotes decentralized mining to prevent such issues. The price actually rose about 5% after the incident, showing confidence among holders.
Details at Bitcoinist
Conclusion
Monero’s future depends on how well it can navigate regulatory challenges while continuing to innovate in privacy technology. The FCMP++ upgrade offers a promising boost, but the EU’s ban and mining centralization concerns are significant hurdles. Keep an eye on how quickly the FCMP++ upgrade is adopted and whether decentralized exchanges can grow enough to offset losses from regulated platforms. Will Monero’s trading volume on DEXs double by 2026 as centralized exchanges pull back? Only time will tell.
What are people saying about XMR?
The Monero community is divided between concerns over mining centralization and strong belief in its privacy features. Here’s what’s trending:
- Qubic’s mining control raises fears of a 51% attack
- Developer optimism calls Monero "the greatest currency"
- Privacy coin competition heats up as Zcash gains momentum
Deep Dive
1. @Qubic: Mining Power Grab bearish
“We’re accumulating hashrate critical mass through incentives… welcome your DDoS attacks”
– @Qubic (96.6K followers · 848K impressions · 2025-07-28 14:54 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Qubic is openly working to control 38% of Monero’s mining power (as of July 2025) by offering token rewards. This concentration of mining power threatens the network’s decentralization and increases the risk of attacks that could disrupt transactions or cause exchanges like Kraken to pause deposits.
2. @jakexmr: Community Rally Cry bullish
“GM $XMR enthusiasts. We're about to rip. Monero is the greatest currency on the planet”
– @jakexmr (31.2K followers · 65.6K likes · 2025-10-10 11:33 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Influential supporters are boosting confidence among everyday investors. Despite recent network challenges, Monero’s price rose 48% over two months, showing strong belief in its privacy-focused technology.
3. @CryptoLens24: Privacy Coin Shakeup mixed
“People don't realize how bullish $ZEC pump is for $XMR… look for the best options”
– @jakexmr (31.2K followers · 65.6K likes · 2025-10-10 18:47 UTC)
View original post
What this means: When Zcash briefly surpassed Monero’s market value in November 2025, it brought attention to privacy coins overall. However, Monero’s built-in transaction privacy keeps it the technical leader, even as it faces regulatory challenges.
Conclusion
The outlook for Monero is mixed, balancing the risk of mining centralization against its unmatched privacy technology. While Qubic’s potential 51% control is a concern, developers are pushing for more decentralized mining through P2Pool and ongoing upgrades. Keep an eye on whether Monero’s decentralized mining share stays above 15% this week — it’s a key sign of the network’s health.
What is the latest news about XMR?
Monero is balancing strong buying interest with new regulations, testing important price levels while the European Union targets privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. Here’s the latest update:
- EU Bans Privacy Coins (November 10, 2025) – Monero will be removed from EU exchanges by 2027 under new anti-money laundering laws.
- Monero Jumps 20% (November 10, 2025) – The price surged due to traders moving profits from Zcash and forced selling of short positions.
- Testing $410 Resistance (November 10, 2025) – Monero approaches a key price barrier, with signs it could break higher.
In-Depth Look
1. EU Bans Privacy Coins (November 10, 2025)
What happened: The European Union announced it will ban privacy coins like Monero, Zcash, and Dash starting July 2027. Exchanges in the EU must stop listing these coins and require ID verification for transactions over €1,000. The goal is to reduce illegal activities, but this could push users toward decentralized platforms that are harder to regulate.
What this means: This is a setback for Monero’s availability and trading in the EU, which is its third-largest market. However, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) might see more Monero trading as users look for alternatives. (CoinMarketCap)
2. Monero Jumps 20% (November 10, 2025)
What happened: Monero’s price rose from $352 to $433 in one week. This was driven by traders taking profits from Zcash’s earlier gains and by forced selling of bets against Monero (short liquidations). Interest in Monero futures hit record levels. The rally also comes ahead of Monero’s upcoming Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) upgrade planned for 2025.
What this means: The price jump shows growing interest in privacy coins, but low trading volume can make prices more volatile. Trading on decentralized exchanges increased by 40%, indicating strong demand despite regulatory challenges. (Yahoo Finance)
3. Testing $410 Resistance (November 10, 2025)
What happened: Monero is approaching the $410 price level, a key resistance point it hasn’t passed since 2018. Analysts see a “cup and handle” chart pattern, which often signals a potential price breakout toward $755 if the momentum continues. However, technical indicators like RSI (78.5) and MACD suggest the coin might be overbought and due for a pullback.
What this means: If Monero breaks above $410, it could push higher toward its all-time high of $517. If it fails, the price might drop back to support levels between $340 and $370. (CCN)
Conclusion
Monero’s price is showing strength, but new EU regulations create uncertainty. The coin’s decentralized nature and upcoming upgrades could help it overcome these challenges, but exchange bans might slow its growth. The coming months will be critical in seeing how Monero balances these opposing forces.
What is expected in the development of XMR?
Monero’s development is moving forward with these key updates:
- Seraphis & Jamtis Integration (2026) – A new transaction system to boost privacy and make the network more scalable.
- Bulletproofs++ Implementation (Q1 2026) – Enhances efficiency for confidential transactions, making them faster and smaller.
- Full-Chain Membership Proofs (2025–2026) – Adds a way to verify transactions without revealing sensitive details, improving auditability while keeping privacy intact.
Deep Dive
1. Seraphis & Jamtis Integration (2026)
Overview:
Seraphis is a new framework designed to replace Monero’s current transaction system called RingCT. Jamtis introduces reusable payment codes, which simplify managing addresses. Together, these upgrades aim to reduce transaction sizes by about 30% and make it harder for outside parties to analyze the blockchain (Monero Research Lab).
What this means:
This is positive news for Monero (XMR) because it tackles current limits on how many transactions the network can handle and strengthens privacy protections. These improvements are important for keeping Monero as a top choice among privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. However, if the rollout is delayed, it might temporarily affect investor confidence.
2. Bulletproofs++ Implementation (Q1 2026)
Overview:
Bulletproofs++ is an upgrade to Monero’s existing system that verifies confidential transactions. It will reduce the time it takes to verify transactions by 15-20% and make transactions smaller. The code is ready, with security checks planned for December 2025 (Community Crowdfunding System).
What this means:
This update is generally positive but may not cause a big market reaction on its own. It improves network speed and efficiency, but its full impact depends on how well it works alongside Seraphis and whether it coincides with listings on major exchanges.
3. Full-Chain Membership Proofs (2025–2026)
Overview:
This community-funded project will allow users to prove that a transaction is part of the blockchain without revealing the transaction amount or the parties involved. It’s expected to be completed by mid-2026, with testing starting in March 2026 (CCS Proposal).
What this means:
This is a strong positive development because it helps Monero meet regulatory demands for auditability without sacrificing privacy. If institutional investors and custodians adopt this feature, it could significantly boost Monero’s value.
Conclusion
Monero’s roadmap combines advanced cryptography (Seraphis and Jamtis) with practical improvements (Bulletproofs++), reinforcing its status as a leading privacy coin. The balance between protecting user privacy and meeting regulatory requirements will likely shape XMR’s path in 2026. Additionally, challenges like mining centralization, especially from groups like Qubic, may influence development priorities moving forward.
What updates are there in the XMR code base?
Monero’s software recently got important upgrades to boost privacy and fix serious security issues.
- Fluorine Fermi Update (October 10, 2025) – Improved how Monero connects to other users to block spying nodes and keep transactions more private.
- Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025) – Fixed a security hole that let bad actors learn details about transactions through remote nodes.
- Bug Fixes (July 25, 2025) – General improvements to make the network more stable and fix minor bugs.
Deep Dive
1. Fluorine Fermi Update (October 10, 2025)
What it is: This update changes how Monero chooses which other users (nodes) to connect with. It avoids connecting to groups of nodes that might be spying on users by tracking IP addresses and transactions.
Specifically, it stops nodes from connecting to many peers within the same large IP address range—a common trick used by surveillance groups. It also includes fixes to make the network more reliable.
Why it matters: This is great news for Monero users because it strengthens privacy protections against new spying methods. By limiting exposure to potentially malicious nodes, users get better protection from anyone trying to track their transactions. (Source)
2. Privacy Leak Fix (August 26, 2025)
What it is: A serious security flaw was fixed where bad remote nodes could figure out transaction details by watching how wallets interact with them.
The fix changes how wallets ask remote nodes for information, adding random data (“noise”) to hide patterns that could reveal private details.
Why it matters: This fix improves privacy for users who rely on third-party nodes, like lightweight wallets, by reducing the risk of leaking sensitive information. It doesn’t add new features but closes an important vulnerability. (Source)
3. Bug Fixes (July 25, 2025)
What it is: These are smaller updates that fix rare crashes and improve how nodes sync with the blockchain.
For example, it addresses occasional freezes during blockchain reorganizations and makes handling of trimmed blockchain data smoother.
Why it matters: These fixes help keep the network running smoothly, especially for node operators and exchanges. Regular users won’t notice much difference, but overall stability improves.
Conclusion
Monero’s recent updates show a strong commitment to protecting user privacy and keeping the network stable. The Fluorine Fermi update is a key step in fighting surveillance threats. However, challenges like mining centralization (such as experiments with Qubic’s 51% hashrate) remain concerns. It will be interesting to see how these improvements help Monero stay secure and private during future tests.