What could affect the price of ATOM?
Cosmos is currently balancing between growing its ecosystem and facing challenges in the market.
- Ecosystem Growth – A $300 million Ethereum treasury plan and more developers joining could increase its usefulness (Positive)
- Altcoin Market Mood – Mixed feelings and more competition limit growth potential (Neutral)
- Technical Outlook – Key resistance at $4.85 with downward pressure in the short term (Negative near-term)
In-Depth Look
1. Ecosystem Growth (Positive Impact)
Overview:
Cosmos Hub plans to create a $300 million Ethereum treasury by August 2025 to connect decentralized finance (DeFi) liquidity with its network, called the Interchain. At the same time, the AlphaGrowth DAO aims to bring over 100 ATOM-based DeFi projects on board by mid-2026, supported by $254 million in grants and marketing efforts.
What this means: If successful, Cosmos could become a key player in Web3 by enabling different blockchains to work together, increasing demand for ATOM through fees collected across chains. However, the current grant pool of 180,000 ATOM (about $756,000 at today’s prices) is small compared to Polkadot’s $20 million developer fund, which might limit its impact.
2. Altcoin Market Mood (Neutral Impact)
Overview:
The Altcoin Season Index is at 58 out of 100 as of October 2025, showing a 20% increase over the past month but still below the July peak of 71. Cosmos faces competition from projects like Mantra, which focuses on real-world assets (RWA), and Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange capturing 7.5% of ATOM’s trading volume.
What this means: While ATOM benefits from a general increase in altcoin interest (with the market cap rising 6.35% monthly), the growing number of competing projects could limit its gains. The Fear & Greed Index at 42 indicates traders are cautious and waiting for clearer reasons to invest heavily in ATOM.
3. Technical Outlook (Negative Near-Term)
Overview:
ATOM is struggling to stay above important moving averages: the 30-day at $4.36 and the 200-day at $4.68. The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, though the RSI at 38.5 suggests it’s not yet oversold. Breaking above $4.85 could lead to a 30% price increase to $5.46.
What this means: Until ATOM climbs back above $4.53, the recent 7% drop from September’s high of $4.92 might continue down to $3.96, the low for 2025. Past network upgrades, like the July 2025 hard fork, have not been enough to boost momentum, showing the need for stronger fundamental developments.
Conclusion
ATOM’s future price depends on turning partnerships into real activity on the network. Keep an eye on the Interchain’s total value locked (TVL), which currently stands at $112 billion across 115 blockchains. The big question is whether Cosmos can attract the next 100 million users through compliant real-world asset projects like Real Finance before its competitors do. Watch the adoption of the Interchain Scheduler after Cosmoverse 2025 (October 30–November 1) for signs of progress.
What are people saying about ATOM?
Cosmos (ATOM) traders are balancing hopes for a price breakout with concerns about how its network is divided. Here’s what’s happening right now:
- Traders are watching the $4.85 resistance level after the price held steady around $4.60 support.
- A chart analyst points to a triangle pattern that could mean a 30% price move is coming.
- Debates about the ecosystem’s growth focus on the benefits of IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication) versus complaints about asset fragmentation.
- Institutional interest is rising with new futures trading on BitTap and integrations on Coinbase.
Deep Dive
1. @ali_charts: Triangle Pattern Signals Possible Big Move 🚨
"Cosmos $ATOM triangle consolidation nearly at the apex. Watch for a 30% move!"
– @ali_charts (297K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-08-30 03:08 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for ATOM. A symmetrical triangle pattern often comes before a strong price move. The expected 30% change could push the price from $4.20 up to $5.46 or down to $3.30. However, traders should look for confirmation through trading volume before making decisions.
2. @BitTapGlobal: New Futures Trading Shows Growing Demand 📈
"Futures Listing | ATOM 💠 Contract Trading Pair: ATOM/USDT"
– @BitTapGlobal (86K followers · 234K impressions · 2025-09-30 10:16 UTC)
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What this means: This is a cautiously positive development. Futures trading can increase liquidity, making it easier to buy and sell ATOM. But it also introduces risks because futures involve leverage, which can amplify losses. Currently, ATOM’s open interest in futures is $141 million with a small positive funding rate, according to CoinMarketCap.
3. @AirdropGlideapp: Asset Fragmentation Creates User Challenges ⚠️
"If a project mentions wBTC, there are multiple versions... wBTC.axl, wBTC.osmo... It's never the same answer."
– @AirdropGlideapp (42K followers · 189K impressions · 2025-08-24 12:25 UTC)
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What this means: This is a downside for wider adoption. Even though IBC allows different blockchains to connect, having multiple versions of the same asset (like wrapped Bitcoin) can confuse users and make decentralized finance (DeFi) harder to use. Some tools like the Osmosis decentralized exchange help by enabling arbitrage, but they don’t fully solve the user experience issues.
Conclusion
Overall, the outlook for Cosmos (ATOM) is cautiously optimistic. Technical indicators show buyers accumulating near $4.60, while the ecosystem continues to grow with over 100 connected blockchains. However, user experience challenges from asset fragmentation remain a concern. Keep an eye on whether ATOM can break above the $4.85 resistance level—success could confirm bullish momentum, while failure might lead to a retest of $4.30. Also, note that ATOM’s price has a strong 90-day correlation (0.82) with Ethereum (ETH), according to CoinMetrics, so developments like Ethereum’s ETF approvals could impact ATOM’s price too.
What is the latest news about ATOM?
Cosmos (ATOM) is facing mixed signals—staking rewards are up, but altcoins are under pressure. Here’s the latest:
- Bitrue Expands ATOM Staking (September 30, 2025) – Offering 20% annual returns to encourage more participation.
- Real Finance Launches Real-World Asset (RWA) Hub (September 25, 2025) – Using Cosmos technology to tap into a $3.5 trillion market.
- ATOM Drops 7-10% Amid Altcoin Selloff (September 23, 2025) – Risk-off sentiment hits Cosmos and similar tokens hard.
Deep Dive
1. Bitrue Expands ATOM Staking (September 30, 2025)
What happened: Bitrue, a crypto exchange, added Cosmos (ATOM) to its Earn program, offering a 20% annual percentage yield (APY) for flexible staking. This is part of Bitrue’s effort to support over 120 assets that users can stake to earn rewards. The platform now manages over $500 million in total value locked (TVL), and ATOM’s 20% APY is competitive compared to similar offerings around 18-20%.
Why it matters: This is good news for ATOM holders because staking through an exchange makes it easier for everyday investors to participate, potentially increasing the number of people supporting the Cosmos network. However, since Bitrue’s rate is close to competitors’, there may be more competition among validators (those who help secure the network) to attract stakers. (Cointelegraph)
2. Real Finance Launches RWA Hub (September 25, 2025)
What happened: Real Finance, a company based in Paris, launched a new blockchain built with Cosmos technology to tokenize real-world assets like property or loans. Their system includes strict rules for validators and decentralized insurance pools to protect users. They aim to tap into a $3.5 trillion market by 2030, with a minimum viable product (MVP) expected by the end of 2025.
Why it matters: This shows that big businesses are starting to use Cosmos’s flexible technology for real-world applications, which is a positive sign. However, success depends on clear regulations. Also, since this project doesn’t use inflationary tokens (which create new tokens over time), it might reduce demand for staking ATOM if many similar projects follow this model. (Cointribune)
3. ATOM Drops 7-10% Amid Altcoin Selloff (September 23, 2025)
What happened: ATOM’s price fell about 7% to $4.20, along with other mid-sized altcoins like ICP and FIL. This happened as traders moved away from riskier assets ahead of important inflation data. Despite the price drop, the number of apps using Cosmos’s network stayed steady, indicating the price move was more about market sentiment than technical issues.
Why it matters: This short-term price drop reflects a broader cautious mood in the crypto market. However, ATOM’s price holding above $4.00 shows some strength. Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s market dominance (currently 58.17%)—if it falls below 57%, altcoins like ATOM could see renewed buying interest. (Crypto.News)
Conclusion
Cosmos is balancing growth in its ecosystem with challenges from the wider crypto market. New staking options and real-world asset projects help offset volatility in altcoins. The upcoming Cosmoverse conference on October 30 could spark new partnerships and boost ATOM’s role in connecting different blockchains. Will Cosmos regain momentum as cross-chain activity picks up? Stay tuned.
What is expected in the development of ATOM?
Cosmos' roadmap is centered on improving how different blockchains work together, expanding its practical uses, and growing its community through important updates.
- Interchain Security Expansion (2025) – Validators will help secure multiple blockchains, with penalties for bad behavior.
- Cross-Chain DeFi Tools (Q4 2025) – Better tools for moving assets and trading across blockchains, increasing liquidity.
- Staking Derivatives Rollout (2026) – Allowing ATOM holders to use their staked tokens as collateral without unlocking them.
- Governance & NFT Modules (2026) – Easier voting on proposals and better tools for managing digital collectibles (NFTs).
Deep Dive
1. Interchain Security Expansion (2025)
What it is:
This feature lets Cosmos Hub validators protect smaller blockchains, called "baby chains," by sharing their security. If validators act badly, they can lose their staked ATOM tokens as a penalty. This setup helps new projects get strong security quickly, while validators earn more rewards.
Why it matters:
This is good news for ATOM because more staking demand can increase its value. However, if too few validators control the network, it could create risks. Overall, it could make ATOM a key player in securing multiple blockchains, not just its own.
2. Cross-Chain DeFi Tools (Q4 2025)
What it is:
Tools like Gravity Bridge connect Ethereum-compatible blockchains with Cosmos, making it easier to move assets back and forth. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) that use Cosmos’ Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol will also improve liquidity. Recent partnerships with projects like Ripple and Komodo show progress.
Why it matters:
This could attract more users and funds to Cosmos, but competition from other blockchain ecosystems like Polkadot and Solana is strong. Success depends on adding popular stablecoins and making cross-chain transactions smoother.
3. Staking Derivatives Rollout (2026)
What it is:
Staking derivatives let users borrow or trade with their staked ATOM tokens without having to unlock them first. Since about 63% of ATOM is currently staked and locked up, this feature will improve liquidity.
Why it matters:
If done well, this could make ATOM more attractive for earning yields and participating in decentralized finance (DeFi). However, delays or technical issues could slow adoption.
4. Governance & NFT Modules (2026)
What it is:
New tools will simplify how ATOM holders vote on network decisions and manage NFTs across different blockchains. This comes after Cosmos decided to cancel smart contracts on the Hub to focus on core interoperability.
Why it matters:
Improved governance can help the community make decisions more efficiently. The cancellation of Hub-based smart contracts disappointed some developers, but focusing on interoperability may pay off long-term. NFT growth depends on wider use beyond just art and music.
Conclusion
Cosmos is focusing on making blockchains work better together and strengthening security through its validators, while carefully expanding DeFi features. Dropping Hub-based smart contracts shows a clear strategy to build strong cross-chain infrastructure rather than compete directly with Ethereum. Key challenges include slower adoption of IBC and risks from validator centralization.
How will Cosmos balance its vision as the "Internet of Blockchains" with creating smooth, user-friendly experiences?
What updates are there in the ATOM code base?
Cosmos’ software received important updates in the third quarter of 2025, focusing on improving security, scaling the network, and enabling better communication with other blockchains like Ethereum.
- Critical Security Patch (July 8, 2025) – Fixed a bug that could stop the network during rewards distribution.
- Hard Fork v11.0 (July 17, 2025) – Added Ethereum compatibility through the IBC Eureka upgrade.
- SDK v0.53.4 (July 25, 2025) – Made performance improvements and optimized system dependencies.
Deep Dive
1. Critical Security Patch (July 8, 2025)
Overview: A security flaw in the rewards system (x/distribution module) could cause the blockchain to freeze when calculating staking rewards. This was fixed with an update that addressed an overflow error in the rewards logic.
Chains using this system were advised to upgrade quickly because the fix required restarting the network in a coordinated way.
What this means: This update is positive for Cosmos (ATOM) holders because it prevents network downtime and ensures staking rewards are distributed smoothly. (Source)
2. Hard Fork v11.0 (July 17, 2025)
Overview: This upgrade introduced the IBC Eureka protocol, which allows Cosmos to communicate directly with Ethereum-based blockchains. This means smart contracts on different blockchains can now interact without relying on third-party bridges.
During the upgrade, some exchanges like ProBit Global temporarily paused deposits and withdrawals to ensure a smooth transition.
What this means: This is a neutral-to-positive development for Cosmos (ATOM). It improves how Cosmos connects with other blockchains but shifts some focus away from building Cosmos-native Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) features. (Source)
3. SDK v0.53.4 (July 25, 2025)
Overview: This update brought smaller but important improvements to the Cosmos SDK, including faster block finalization and quicker syncing for network nodes.
It also cleaned up older code and improved the consensus process, reducing the operating costs for validators by about 15%.
What this means: This is good news for Cosmos (ATOM) because it lowers the barriers for new validators to join, which can help make the network more decentralized. (Source)
Conclusion
Cosmos is clearly focused on strengthening security and enhancing its ability to work with other blockchains. The July updates fixed critical issues and expanded Ethereum compatibility. While developer activity remains strong (ranking in the top 5 for weekly code commits), the big question is whether this focus on interoperability will attract enough new projects to keep Cosmos competitive against emerging modular blockchains.
Why did the price of ATOM go up?
Cosmos (ATOM) increased by 4.25% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 3.42%. The main reasons behind this growth are:
- Bitrue’s 20% APY staking offer attracted more users.
- Progress in tokenizing real-world assets (RWA) within the Cosmos ecosystem.
- Technical rebound after ATOM was oversold.
Key points:
- Bitrue’s Staking Boost
- Growing Real-World Asset Tokenization
- Technical Signals Indicate Recovery
Deep Dive
1. Bitrue’s 20% APY Staking (Positive Impact)
What happened: On September 30, Bitrue expanded its Earn program to offer a 20% annual percentage yield (APY) on ATOM staking, with no lock-up period for new users. Currently, over $500 million worth of assets are locked in Bitrue’s staking programs.
Why it matters: High returns encourage more people to stake their ATOM tokens, which reduces the number of tokens available for trading. Since the total supply of ATOM is fixed at 470 million tokens, staking incentives help limit the circulating supply, putting upward pressure on the price.
2. Growth in Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization (Positive Impact)
What happened: Real Finance announced a new platform built on Cosmos for tokenizing real-world assets like real estate and bonds, aiming to tap into a $10 trillion market by 2030. Additionally, Mantra’s blockchain, focused on RWA, added native support for Ethereum-compatible smart contracts (EVM).
Why it matters: These developments position Cosmos as a key player in institutional-grade tokenization, a major trend expected to grow by 2025. Projects built on Cosmos SDK, such as dYdX, increase the usefulness of ATOM as a token for staking and governance.
3. Technical Rebound (Mixed Impact)
What happened: ATOM’s recent price increase came after testing a support level around $4.20, close to its 7-day moving average of $4.11. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose above oversold levels (38.52), and the MACD indicator showed slight improvement (-0.0285).
Why it matters: Traders likely took advantage of the oversold condition to buy ATOM, but resistance remains near $4.53 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). For the rally to continue, ATOM needs to close above $4.67 (the 23.6% Fibonacci level).
Conclusion
ATOM’s recent price increase is driven by strong staking demand, growing interest in real-world asset tokenization, and technical buying after oversold conditions. However, its 30-day performance is still down by 5.32%, and bearish technical signals suggest caution.
What to watch: Will ATOM stay above the $4.35 support level and break through the $4.53 resistance? Keep an eye on trading volumes and announcements from Cosmoverse 2025 (October 30 to November 1), where important updates on interoperability upgrades may be revealed.