What could affect the price of ATOM?
ATOM’s future depends on changes to its token economics and how widely its network is adopted, all while facing challenges from the ongoing crypto market downturn.
- Tokenomics Overhaul (High Impact) – Plans to cut inflation from 20% down to 2-4% could reduce the pressure to sell tokens.
- Interchain Adoption (Mixed) – Although the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol leads in bridge volume, this hasn’t yet boosted ATOM’s value.
- Regulatory Risks (Bearish) – The SEC’s lawsuit claiming ATOM is a security could lead to U.S. exchanges removing it.
Deep Dive
1. Inflation & Staking Rewards Redesign (Positive Outlook)
Overview:
The Cosmos community is proposing to lower ATOM’s yearly inflation rate from a high 7–20% to a more modest 2–4%, similar to Ethereum’s rate. This change aims to reduce the amount of tokens stakers sell off—currently, about 60% of their rewards are sold immediately. Additionally, a 2025 plan includes sharing fees from chains secured by Cosmos’ Interchain Security (ICS), like Neutron.
What this means:
Lower inflation could help balance how many ATOM tokens are available versus how many people want to hold them, potentially stabilizing or increasing the price. Past data suggests that if inflation had been around 2.5%, ATOM’s price might have stayed near $7 instead of dropping to $2.24 (source). However, delays in governance decisions—like a failed 2022 proposal—could slow down these improvements.
2. Competition Among Modular Blockchains vs. IBC Growth (Mixed Signals)
Overview:
Cosmos SDK is the leading toolkit for building application-specific blockchains, used by projects like dYdX and Celestia. Despite this, ATOM hasn’t fully benefited financially from this dominance. Competitors such as Polkadot, with its shared security model, and Celestia, focusing on data availability, are challenging Cosmos’ Interchain Security adoption.
What this means:
IBC’s monthly transaction volume reached $1.6 billion (source), showing strong network activity. However, some chains like Noble, which acts as a hub for USDC stablecoins, avoid paying fees to ATOM holders. The success of Cosmos’ fee-sharing depends on more projects adopting ICS, but currently only three chains use it, generating limited revenue.
3. Regulatory and Market Risks (Negative Outlook)
Overview:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is suing Coinbase, claiming ATOM should be classified as a security. This could lead to ATOM being delisted from U.S. exchanges. At the same time, overall market sentiment is cautious (“Fear” index at 24), and Bitcoin’s dominance at 58.5% limits growth opportunities for alternative coins.
What this means:
If Coinbase loses the case, forced selling could cause ATOM’s price to drop by 30–50%. On the upside, regulatory progress in regions like the Middle East and Asia—such as the Abu Dhabi Global Market approving Cosmos-based USDT—may provide some regional support.
Conclusion
Looking ahead to 2026, ATOM’s prospects hinge on successfully reducing inflation and expanding cross-chain features, while navigating strong competition and regulatory challenges. In the short term, keep an eye on the upcoming November vote on inflation changes and how many projects adopt Interchain Security. Will Cosmos evolve from just providing infrastructure to capturing real value in a cautious crypto market?
What are people saying about ATOM?
Cosmos (ATOM) is currently facing a tug-of-war between technical challenges and the strength of its ecosystem. Here’s what’s happening:
- Key support at $4.35 is being tested – traders are watching to see if it will bounce back or break down
- Plans to change tokenomics are sparking debates about ATOM’s future value
- Cosmos’ role as an interchain leader is competing with new modular blockchain projects
Deep Dive
1. @Nicat_eth: Strong network vs tokenomics challenges
"ATOM supports one of crypto’s most proven ecosystems but faces issues with fee generation and governance usefulness."
– @Nicat_eth (7.5K followers · 15M+ impressions · Dec 2, 2025, 06:12 UTC)
View original post
What this means: There’s mixed feelings about Cosmos. Its Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) network is powerful, but ATOM’s inflation rate (7-20% per year) and competition from projects like Celestia and EigenLayer create uncertainty.
2. CoinMarketCap Analysis: $4.35 is a critical support level
"ATOM is testing support between $4.35 and $4.40; if it breaks down, it could fall to $4.20, but a bounce could push it to $4.60."
– CoinMarketCap community post (Aug 19, 2025, 08:56 UTC)
View analysis
What this means: Short-term outlook is bearish. Trading volume dropped 19% in 24 hours while the price hovered near this important support level.
3. @khanh1007air: Plans to stabilize validators and improve tokenomics
"Cosmos Labs is planning a tokenomics overhaul that could push ATOM’s price to $15-$20 by 2026 if successful."
– @khanh1007air (1.8K followers · 238K+ impressions · Oct 30, 2025, 23:00 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive long-term outlook. The proposed changes include better incentives for validators and a tokenomics model inspired by veCRV, aiming to lower inflation and increase staking rewards.
Conclusion
The outlook for ATOM is mixed. Investors are optimistic about Cosmos’ strong interchain infrastructure, which connects over 100 blockchains, but cautious about how well ATOM captures value. The $4.35 support level is crucial—if it breaks, it could lead to sell-offs, but if it holds, it might trigger a rebound toward $4.60. Keep an eye on the upcoming governance vote on tokenomics changes expected in Q1 2026, as it could significantly impact ATOM’s future as an investment.
What is the latest news about ATOM?
Cosmos (ATOM) is making progress with regulatory approvals and ecosystem improvements, even as it faces challenges in the market. Here are the key updates:
- ADGM Approves USDT on Cosmos (Dec 8, 2025) – This regulatory approval supports more institutional use of Cosmos.
- Tokenomics Overhaul Starts (Nov 26, 2025) – The community is working on redesigning ATOM’s economic model to better control inflation and increase value.
- Interchain Summit Roadmap (Oct 30, 2025) – Cosmos is partnering with big companies to expand blockchain use in banking and government projects.
Deep Dive
1. ADGM Approves USDT on Cosmos (Dec 8, 2025)
Overview
The Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) has officially allowed USDT stablecoin transactions on nine blockchains, including Cosmos. This means licensed financial institutions in the region can now use Cosmos for stablecoin operations. It’s the first time a Middle Eastern regulator has explicitly supported institutional crypto activity on Cosmos.
What this means
This is a positive sign for ATOM because it shows that Cosmos is trusted for regulated financial activities, which could bring more institutional money into the network. Interestingly, ADGM approved Cosmos but not some other major blockchains like Ethereum, highlighting confidence in Cosmos’ security and compliance. However, this change mainly affects institutions, so everyday users won’t see immediate effects.
(CoinMarketCap)
2. Tokenomics Overhaul Starts (Nov 26, 2025)
Overview
Cosmos has launched a multi-step plan to redesign how ATOM works economically. The goal is to move from a system focused mostly on governance to one that generates revenue through fees. Experts will study current inflation rates (which range from 7% to 20%), staking rewards, and token burning methods.
What this means
This effort aims to fix long-standing issues with how ATOM gains value. If successful, it could reduce the pressure on holders to sell tokens due to inflation and encourage people to hold ATOM longer. However, since this is a complex process expected to take through 2026, there is some uncertainty in the short term.
(CoinSpeaker)
3. Interchain Summit Roadmap (Oct 30, 2025)
Overview
At the Cosmoverse 2025 conference, Cosmos Labs announced partnerships with major companies, including Fortune 500 firms, to build blockchain networks for banking and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Cosmos will offer services that allow different blockchains to work together, and two pilot projects for CBDCs are already underway in Latin America.
What this means
This move positions Cosmos as a key player in bringing blockchain technology to real-world financial systems and government projects. By focusing on banks and governments, Cosmos is expanding beyond decentralized finance (DeFi) into more traditional sectors. However, it’s still unclear when these projects will start generating significant revenue.
(Crypto.News)
Conclusion
Cosmos is making strides in gaining regulatory approval and building enterprise partnerships, but ATOM’s price has dropped 51% this year, reflecting ongoing challenges with its economic model. With institutional adoption growing through ADGM’s approval and CBDC projects, the big question is whether the upcoming tokenomics changes will turn this ecosystem growth into better returns for investors. Keep an eye on updates in early 2026 about the tokenomics proposals and progress on Latin American CBDCs.
What is expected in the development of ATOM?
Cosmos’ development plan is focused on making the network faster, improving how it connects with other blockchains, and encouraging businesses to use it.
- IBC to Solana & Base (Q1 2026) – Completing bridges that let assets move smoothly between Cosmos, Solana, and Ethereum Layer 2 networks.
- ATOM Tokenomics Redesign (Q1–Q2 2026) – Community-led changes to how ATOM tokens work, aiming to increase their value.
- CometBFT 10k+ TPS Upgrade (Q2 2026) – Enhancing the network to handle over 10,000 transactions per second, targeting business and government use.
Deep Dive
1. IBC to Solana & Base (Q1 2026)
Overview:
The Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol is close to completing audits for connecting Cosmos with Solana and Ethereum Layer 2 solutions like Base (Cosmos Blog). This will allow users to transfer assets easily across these different blockchain networks.
What this means:
This is a positive development for ATOM because it could increase demand by making it easier to move assets across chains. However, there is a risk of delays in the audit process or challenges in getting other blockchains to adopt the technology.
2. ATOM Tokenomics Redesign (Q1–Q2 2026)
Overview:
The Cosmos community is working through a four-step process to rethink ATOM’s economic model, including its inflation rate (currently between 7% and 20%), staking rewards, and how the token is used. Ideas on the table include sharing fees from enterprise blockchains and introducing token burning to reduce supply (Binance News).
What this means:
This could be good for ATOM if it reduces selling pressure and better aligns incentives for holders. However, debates within the community might slow down the process.
3. CometBFT 10k+ TPS Upgrade (Q2 2026)
Overview:
CometBFT, Cosmos’ core technology for confirming transactions, plans to increase its speed to over 10,000 transactions per second. This upgrade will support use cases like central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and enterprise blockchains by adding features like parallel processing and proof-of-authority modes for regulated environments.
What this means:
This upgrade is promising for attracting large institutions and businesses. Still, Cosmos faces strong competition from fast networks like Solana and Ethereum Layer 2 solutions.
Conclusion
Cosmos is focusing on making its network scalable and better connected to other blockchains, aiming to attract enterprise users. The success of ATOM depends heavily on the upcoming tokenomics changes. While the technical goals are ambitious, there are risks related to execution and current market caution (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 24). The key question is how quickly Cosmos can bring in institutional partners to support these upgrades.
What updates are there in the ATOM code base?
Cosmos has released important updates focused on improving performance, security, and growing its ecosystem.
- Tokenfactory Deployment (October 30, 2025) – New tools for creating custom tokens directly on Cosmos Hub.
- Comet Consensus Engine Upgrade (October 30, 2025) – Faster transaction processing and better energy efficiency.
- Ledger App v2.37.5 (May 2, 2025) – Added support for the Celestia blockchain and fixed bugs.
Deep Dive
1. Tokenfactory Deployment (October 30, 2025)
What it is: This update lets developers create and manage their own custom tokens right on Cosmos Hub, without needing outside platforms. It’s part of Cosmos’ plan to become a central hub for multiple blockchains to work together.
Why it matters: This is good news for Cosmos (ATOM) because it makes it easier for developers to build new projects directly on Cosmos, which could attract more innovation and growth.
2. Comet Consensus Engine Upgrade (October 30, 2025)
What it is: This upgrade improves the core technology that processes transactions on Cosmos, making it about 15% faster and reducing the hardware needed for validators (the network’s security nodes). It also uses less energy, which is important as Cosmos competes with other blockchains like Solana and Ethereum.
Why it matters: This is generally positive—users get faster transactions, but validators might face some short-term costs to switch to the new system.
3. Ledger App v2.37.5 (May 2, 2025)
What it is: This update fixes issues with how large ATOM balances were displayed on Ledger hardware wallets and adds support for the Celestia blockchain.
Why it matters: This builds trust for people and institutions who use Ledger devices to securely store their ATOM tokens, supporting Cosmos’ goal of attracting more institutional users.
Conclusion
Cosmos is focusing on improving developer tools (Tokenfactory), network speed and efficiency (Comet), and security (Ledger updates) to strengthen its role as a hub where different blockchains can connect. With ATOM’s price down 77% over the past year, these upgrades could help spark new growth and activity in the Cosmos ecosystem.
Why did the price of ATOM go up?
Cosmos (ATOM) increased by 3.66% in the last 24 hours, breaking away from its recent 7-day decline of 0.29% and a 30-day drop of 23.31%. The main reasons behind this rise are:
- Regulatory Approval in Abu Dhabi – USDT stablecoin is now authorized on Cosmos networks, boosting confidence among institutional investors.
- Technical Signals Point to a Bounce – Indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest a short-term shift toward positive momentum.
- Attractive Staking Rewards – High annual percentage yields (APY) between 10.6% and 15% are drawing investors looking for steady returns despite market uncertainty.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Regulatory Progress (Positive for Cosmos)
Summary: On December 8, the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) approved USDT transactions on Cosmos and eight other blockchain networks. This allows regulated financial institutions to use Cosmos’ ecosystem for stablecoin operations.
Why it matters: This approval adds legitimacy to Cosmos’ technology that connects different blockchains, which could lead to more institutional use. The timing of this news matches ATOM’s price increase, indicating that the market sees real value in this development.
What to watch: Keep an eye on trading volumes on Cosmos-based platforms like Osmosis and dYdX v4 after this upgrade.
2. Technical Indicators Suggest a Rebound (Mixed Signals)
Summary: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ATOM dropped to 30.92, nearing oversold territory, while the MACD indicator showed that the downward momentum is slowing. The price also bounced back above a key support level at $2.36.
Why it matters: These technical signs often encourage traders to buy, expecting a price recovery. The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $3.85 is a longer-term target, while the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.59 remains a resistance level to watch.
Key level: If ATOM stays above $2.36, it could aim for $2.53 next.
3. Staking Rewards vs. Inflation Concerns (Mixed Impact)
Summary: Staking ATOM offers high fixed APYs, ranging from 10.6% on Bitvavo to 15.13% on Coinbase. This encourages investors to hold and earn rewards, even though ATOM’s price has dropped over 50% in the past 90 days.
Why it matters: These attractive yields help balance out selling pressure caused by ATOM’s inflationary supply model, which increases the total number of tokens by 7–20% annually. However, competition from blockchains with no inflation, like Bitcoin and Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, limits how much ATOM’s price can grow.
Conclusion
ATOM’s recent price increase is driven by a mix of regulatory support, positive technical signals, and strong staking incentives. However, challenges remain due to its inflationary token model and competition from other blockchain networks. Key point to watch: Whether the ADGM’s approval of USDT on Cosmos leads to increased activity on the network in the coming week.