Why did the price of HBAR fall?

Hedera (HBAR) dropped 2.11% in the last 24 hours, falling more than the overall crypto market, which declined by 1.08%. Here’s why:

1. Technical breakdown – On November 21, HBAR fell below an important price level at $0.1350, triggering automatic sell orders.
2. Pressure from derivatives trading – There’s a large number of traders betting that HBAR’s price will go down, adding to the selling pressure.
3. Market-wide caution – The overall crypto market is in “Extreme Fear” mode, causing investors to sell riskier coins like HBAR.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

What happened: On November 21, HBAR’s price dropped sharply by 11.5%, falling from $0.1426 to $0.1281 after breaking below the $0.1350 support level (CoinDesk). Trading volume nearly doubled, showing strong selling activity, likely from large investors.

What this means: This price drop ended a period where HBAR’s price was stable, signaling a shift to a downward trend. The price is now below key moving averages (short-term average: $0.144, long-term average: $0.202), and technical indicators show the coin is oversold but not yet ready for a rebound.

What to watch: If HBAR can rise back above $0.1350, it may stabilize. But if it falls below $0.1277, it could drop further to around $0.1250.

2. Selling Driven by Derivatives (Negative Impact)

What happened: Traders are heavily betting against HBAR in the futures market, with $15.32 million in short positions compared to $2.66 million in long positions (Yahoo Finance). This means many expect the price to keep falling.

What this means: High short interest can cause more selling, especially if traders with borrowed money are forced to close their positions quickly, pushing the price down further. The total number of open contracts dropped by 13.26% in 24 hours, showing traders are pulling back amid uncertainty.

What to watch: If HBAR’s price rises above $0.1350, short sellers might rush to buy back their positions, causing a quick price increase known as a short squeeze.

3. Overall Crypto Market Sentiment (Negative Impact)

What happened: The total value of all cryptocurrencies fell by 1.08%, from $2.89 trillion to $2.86 trillion, with altcoins like HBAR taking the biggest hit. Bitcoin’s share of the market increased to 58.42%, as investors move money into what they see as safer assets.

What this means: HBAR’s price is closely linked to Bitcoin’s performance, with a strong 30-day correlation of 0.89. The market is currently favoring Bitcoin over riskier altcoins, as shown by the Altcoin Season Index at 25 out of 100.

Conclusion

HBAR’s recent price drop is due to a mix of technical factors, heavy short selling, and a cautious crypto market overall. While the coin is oversold and may not fall much further, a sustained recovery depends on breaking back above $0.1350 and improved market confidence.

What to watch: Will HBAR hold above $0.1277, or will Bitcoin’s dominance keep pressure on altcoins? Keep an eye on derivatives funding rates and trading volume for clues on the next move.

What could affect the price of HBAR?

HBAR is currently caught between growing interest from businesses and broader economic challenges.

1. Mainnet Upgrade (Mixed Impact) – A network upgrade on July 23 may cause some short-term disruptions but is designed to improve the system’s ability to handle more transactions in the long run.
2. ETF Activity and Delays (Positive/Negative) – $68 million flowing into HBAR ETFs shows strong demand, but delays from regulators on new ETF applications could slow progress.
3. Hashgraph Adoption (Positive) – Hedera’s energy-efficient technology is attracting companies focused on environmental responsibility, with a major gaming partnership reaching 169 million users set to launch in 2025.

Deep Dive

1. Mainnet Upgrade & Fee Changes (Mixed Impact)

Overview: On July 23, 2025, Hedera will upgrade its main network to include advanced security features that protect against future quantum computing threats. Along with this, transaction fees will increase by 700% starting January 2026, going from $0.0001 to $0.0008 per transaction. While this supports long-term sustainability, the upgrade will require about 40 minutes of downtime, which might temporarily affect trader confidence.

What this means: Expect some price swings around the upgrade date. The fee increase aims to provide more predictable costs for businesses using the network. In the past, a similar fee change in 2021 was followed by a significant price increase, suggesting potential long-term benefits if adoption continues to grow.

2. Institutional ETF Demand & Regulatory Hurdles (Positive/Negative)

Overview: The Canary HBAR ETF currently holds 387 million HBAR tokens, worth about $67.9 million as of November 2025. However, 14 new ETF applications in the U.S. are facing delays from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A key decision on converting Grayscale’s HBAR Trust is expected on November 12, 2025 (CoinDesk).

What this means: If even one new ETF is approved, it could drive a price surge similar to Bitcoin’s 160% rally in 2024. But the SEC remains cautious about approving ETFs for cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, which adds uncertainty. For example, HBAR’s price dropped 8% during a filing delay in July 2025, showing the risk involved.

3. Hashgraph’s Enterprise Growth (Positive)

Overview: Hedera’s Governing Council, which includes major companies like Google, IBM, and LG, has helped increase stablecoin issuance on the network by 93% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $172 million. The launch of an AI Studio in June 2025 and a new gaming partnership in Southeast Asia targeting 169 million users through telecom companies (Yahoo Finance) demonstrate growing real-world use.

What this means: Historically, a 10% rise in network transactions has led to a 3-5% increase in HBAR’s price. With transaction fees about 1,000 times cheaper than Visa, Hedera is well-positioned to benefit from the growing market for payment tokenization, which could reach $10 trillion by 2030.

Conclusion

HBAR’s outlook for 2026 depends on balancing increased liquidity from ETFs against broader economic concerns, with the market’s Fear & Greed Index at a low 10 out of 100. Technical analysis points to a critical price range between $0.18 and $0.20—holding above this could trigger a rally toward $0.30 in the first quarter. The key question remains: Will institutional investments be enough to counteract cautious retail investors as Bitcoin’s dominance rises to 58.4%?

What are people saying about HBAR?

The Hedera (HBAR) community is caught between excitement over a potential ETF and concerns about technical price trends. Here’s the quick summary:

1. $5 HBAR on ETF hype? – Some expect big gains, but many remain skeptical.
2. Golden cross spotted – Traders are watching for a breakout above $0.25.
3. Enterprise adoption grows – Use of stablecoins and AI tools on Hedera is increasing.

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: “$5 HBAR if ETF approved?” bullish

“Grayscale’s ETF filing lines up with a golden cross… HBAR could jump 500% like it did in 2021!”
– @johnmorganFL (35.1K followers · 21.6K likes · 2025-08-13 06:28 UTC)
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What this means: There’s optimism that institutional investors will drive demand if an ETF is approved. However, reaching $5 per HBAR would require the market value of Hedera to grow to $250 billion—about 45 times its current size—so many remain cautious.

2. @RealAllinCrypto: “Hedera’s enterprise pipeline heats up” neutral

“Banks are using HBAR for stablecoins like AUDD and PHPX… but the price hasn’t caught up with this adoption yet.”
– @RealAllinCrypto (40.8K followers · 23.1K likes · 2025-09-05 08:15 UTC)
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What this means: Real-world use cases, such as gaming apps with 169 million users in Southeast Asia, are growing. However, this hasn’t yet led to a steady increase in HBAR’s price, showing a gap between actual usage and market enthusiasm.

3. Technical analysts: “Breakdown to $0.12 looms” bearish

“HBAR dropped 11.5% on a surge in trading volume… chart patterns suggest bears are in control.”
– CoinDesk (4.2M monthly readers · 2025-11-21 16:46 UTC)
View report
What this means: Losing the $0.135 price support and increased selling by institutions raises the risk of further declines. Holding $0.12 is now crucial to avoid a potential 40% drop from the current $0.129 price.

Conclusion

The outlook for Hedera (HBAR) is mixed. Positive stories about ETFs and growing enterprise use face challenges from weakening technical signals and slow price reaction. While developments like AI integration and compliance with ISO 20022 standards could boost long-term value, the immediate question is whether buyers can keep the price above $0.125. Keep an eye on the Canary HBAR ETF’s fund flows this week for clues about institutional interest.

What is the latest news about HBAR?

Hedera is facing challenges as it works to gain traction with businesses, while SWIFT—the global banking messaging system—is adopting blockchain-friendly standards. Here’s the latest update:

1. SWIFT Adopts Blockchain-Friendly ISO 20022 (November 22, 2025) – Major banks worldwide are switching to a messaging standard that supports platforms like Hedera, Ripple, and Stellar.
2. HBAR Drops 11.5% Amid Institutional Selling (November 21, 2025) – The price fell sharply as trading volume nearly doubled.
3. Hedera’s Business Pilots Encounter Deployment Issues (November 21, 2025) – The Hedera Enterprise Adoption Team (HEAT) points to regulatory and technical challenges slowing progress.

Deep Dive

1. SWIFT Adopts Blockchain-Friendly ISO 20022 (November 22, 2025)

What happened:
SWIFT, the global messaging system used by banks for nearly 50 years, retired its old MT format and replaced it with ISO 20022. This new standard uses a flexible XML-based system that can work with blockchain platforms like Hedera. It supports smart contracts and tokenized assets, which means digital representations of money or other assets can be moved more efficiently. Citi estimates that by 2030, $140 trillion could flow through tokenized deposits.

Why it matters:
This is a positive development for Hedera because it makes the network more attractive for big financial institutions, especially for payments and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). However, Hedera will face competition from other blockchain platforms like Ripple and Stellar, which could limit immediate gains. (Yahoo Finance)

2. HBAR Drops 11.5% Amid Institutional Selling (November 21, 2025)

What happened:
HBAR’s price fell from $0.1426 to $0.1281, breaking a key support level at $0.1350. Trading volume surged to 250.3 million tokens, nearly double the usual amount, triggering automatic sell orders. The price is now moving downward, with resistance around $0.14.

Why it matters:
The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, mainly driven by large investors selling rather than panic from smaller traders. If the price falls below $0.1277, it could drop further to $0.1250. However, since the token is oversold, there might be short-term price rebounds. (CoinDesk)

3. Hedera’s Business Pilots Encounter Deployment Issues (November 21, 2025)

What happened:
The Hedera Enterprise Adoption Team (HEAT) shared that about 70% of pilot projects get delayed or stalled. The main reasons are unclear regulations and concerns about privacy. Private network solutions, like HashSphere, are important for projects such as Australia’s CBDC pilot called Project Acacia.

Why it matters:
This creates a neutral to slightly negative outlook in the short term because business adoption is slower than expected. However, progress in regions like the European Union and Singapore could speed up real-world use cases in 2026. (CCN)

Conclusion

Hedera’s support for the ISO 20022 standard highlights its growing importance to institutions. Still, technical challenges and slow business adoption are holding back HBAR’s price momentum. The big question is whether SWIFT’s move toward blockchain-friendly messaging can help reverse the current downward trend before the end of the year.

What is expected in the development of HBAR?

Hedera is moving forward with some important updates:

1. Mainnet Upgrade (July 23, 2025) – Better network speed and governance features.
2. AI Studio Expansion (Q3 2025) – New tools to help build AI-powered apps.
3. TransAct Launch (September 2, 2025) – Allows businesses to use Hedera without needing to hold HBAR tokens.

In-Depth Look

1. Mainnet Upgrade (July 23, 2025)

What’s happening:
Hedera will release a major update to its main network on July 23, 2025. This upgrade aims to make the network more stable and speed up how quickly transactions are finalized. The update is approved by Hedera’s Governing Council and community, ensuring it follows their governance process (CCN).

Why it matters:
This is good news for HBAR because faster transaction speeds—targeting over 10,000 transactions per second—could attract more businesses to use the network. However, there will be a planned 40-minute downtime during the upgrade, which could temporarily disrupt operations.

2. AI Studio Expansion (Q3 2025)

What’s happening:
Hedera’s AI Studio, launched in June 2025, will get new features that support verifiable computing and compatibility with LangChain, a popular AI development framework. These updates will make it easier to build AI-driven applications, especially for tracking carbon emissions and managing supply chains.

Why it matters:
This is somewhat positive because it meets growing demand from institutions for transparent AI tools. Success depends on how many developers start using it, but partnerships with big tech companies like NVIDIA and Intel add credibility (CCN).

3. TransAct Launch (September 2, 2025)

What’s happening:
The Hashgraph Group will launch TransAct, a service that lets businesses make Hedera transactions without needing to hold HBAR tokens. This simplifies handling transaction fees and wallet management. It’s aimed at industries like central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and institutional decentralized finance (DeFi) (Yahoo Finance).

Why it matters:
This is a positive step for adoption because it lowers the barrier for regulated companies to use Hedera. However, since it relies on third-party custody of private keys, there could be concerns about centralization.

Conclusion

Hedera’s upcoming updates focus on improving network performance, expanding AI development tools, and making the platform easier for businesses to use. Its emphasis on compliance and energy efficiency makes it attractive for institutional users. The big question is whether Hedera can keep developers engaged and compete with other platforms like Ethereum and Solana in the growing AI and DeFi spaces.

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What updates are there in the HBAR code base?

Hedera’s latest updates focus on improving developer tools, making the network more efficient, and enhancing compatibility with Ethereum.

1. Mainnet v0.67 Upgrade (November 12, 2025) – Better handling of Ethereum transactions and improved node performance.
2. Contract Builder Launch (July 23, 2025) – A browser-based tool for creating and deploying smart contracts without coding.
3. Mainnet Releases 0.60 & 0.61 (June 23, 2025) – Introduced daily rewards for network nodes and simplified account management.

Deep Dive

1. Mainnet v0.67 Upgrade (November 12, 2025)

Overview: This update improved how Hedera works with Ethereum’s technology, making it faster and more reliable for transactions that cross between blockchains. It added support for processing large batches of Ethereum transactions and introduced zero fees for failed transactions. Node operators also updated the system to keep performance steady during busy times.
What this means: This is good news for Hedera (HBAR) because it lowers costs for developers moving their Ethereum-based apps to Hedera and makes the network more dependable. (Source)

2. Hedera Contract Builder Launch (July 23, 2025)

Overview: Hedera introduced a new tool that lets developers create and deploy smart contracts using Solidity (a popular programming language for Ethereum) directly in their web browser. This means no need to set up complicated software on your computer. The tool also automatically creates the necessary connections for apps to interact with these contracts.
What this means: This is neutral for HBAR right now—it makes it easier for new developers to get started, but how much it helps depends on how many move their projects from the test network to the main network. (Source)

3. Mainnet Releases 0.60 & 0.61 (June 23, 2025)

Overview: These updates introduced two important improvements: daily rewards for nodes that help run the network (HIP-1064) and automatic assignment of account IDs when renewing topics (HIP-1021). The daily rewards encourage nodes to stay online and active, while the auto-assignment makes managing accounts easier.
What this means: This is positive for Hedera (HBAR) because it encourages more participation in the network and reduces hassle for businesses using Hedera’s services. (Source)

Conclusion

Hedera’s recent updates focus on making the network more compatible with Ethereum, easier for developers to use, and more rewarding for those who support the network. With these improvements, Hedera is well-positioned to attract more Web3 developers in 2026.