What could affect the price of HBAR?
HBAR’s future depends on how businesses adopt it, the flow of money into ETFs, and improvements to its network.
- Institutional ETF Demand – A spot ETF holds about 1% of all HBAR, showing steady long-term buying.
- Enterprise Tokenization – Partnerships with companies in AI and real-world assets are increasing HBAR’s practical uses.
- Network Upgrades – Updates to the main network aim to improve speed and compatibility with Ethereum-based applications.
Deep Dive
1. Institutional ETF Accumulation (Positive Sign)
Overview: The Canary HBAR ETF currently holds 473 million HBAR tokens, which is roughly 1% of the total supply. Despite low trading volume, the ETF’s holdings have grown by 80% since November 2025. This growth reflects institutions moving their assets into safer custody rather than short-term trading.
What this means: When ETFs buy and hold HBAR, fewer tokens are available for everyday traders, which can support the price. However, if ETF shares trade at prices significantly different from the actual value of the tokens during market swings, it could create liquidity issues (CoinMarketCap).
2. Enterprise Tokenization Growth (Mixed Outlook)
Overview: Hedera supports the ISO 20022 messaging standard and can handle over 10,000 transactions per second (TPS) through its token service. This has attracted companies like Lloyds Bank, which is tokenizing assets, and IBM, which uses Hedera for supply chain tracking. The total value locked (TVL) in Hedera-based projects increased by 2% to $67.1 million in December 2025.
What this means: Real-world business use could help HBAR’s price become less affected by general crypto market ups and downs. However, progress is slow, and competitors like Chainlink and Polkadot are also competing for similar enterprise partnerships. Without a major breakthrough, growth may remain limited (CCN).
3. Technical Momentum Shifts (Neutral to Slightly Negative)
Overview: HBAR’s price is testing the 20-day moving average at $0.112 after declining for 90 days. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38.96, indicating the token is oversold, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative. If HBAR closes above $0.116, it could spark a short-term rally of about 25%.
What this means: The technical indicators suggest some buying interest but no clear upward trend yet. If the price falls below the $0.103 support level, it could drop another 15–20% (AMB Crypto).
Conclusion
HBAR’s outlook for 2026 is a balance between growing institutional demand through ETFs, slow but steady enterprise adoption, and mixed technical signals. Key levels to watch are the $0.116 resistance break and ETF inflow trends in Q1 2026. These will show whether regulated investment products can offset cautious retail investors in a risk-averse market.
What are people saying about HBAR?
The Hedera (HBAR) community is feeling a mix of cautious hope and frustration as the price tests important levels. Here’s what’s happening right now:
- Conflicting technical signals – Some expect a rise to $0.14, while others warn it could drop to $0.095
- Growing enterprise interest – Governance by major organizations and a new NATO project are boosting optimism
- Debate over value – Big-name partners worth trillions vs. a market cap of just $5 billion
Deep Dive
1. @bpaynews: Small upside to $0.1192 despite market fear (Mixed)
"HBAR price prediction shows a modest rise to $0.1192 in the next few days, supported by positive momentum indicators, even though market fear is high."
– @bpaynews (2K followers · 7.5M impressions · 2025-12-30 16:18 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a neutral sign for HBAR. Technical indicators suggest a short-term gain, but the Fear & Greed Index at 32/100 shows caution, meaning the momentum might not last.
2. @RipBullWinkle: $0.08 support level is crucial (Bearish)
"MA20 below MA50 signals a bearish crossover. Price is below both moving averages, indicating a weaker trend. If it breaks below $0.08, $0.11 is at risk."
– @RipBullWinkle (130K followers · 9.2M impressions · 2025-12-21 18:42 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a bearish sign for HBAR. The “death cross” pattern often leads to 15-20% price drops in cryptocurrencies, especially when Bitcoin is dominant.
3. @hedera: Enterprise adoption is picking up (Bullish)
"Governed by 31 global institutions, with fixed fees in USD, transactions settle in 2.9 seconds, and the network has zero carbon footprint."
– @hedera (461K followers · 41M impressions · 2025-11-24 17:48 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for HBAR. More companies and organizations, including a new NATO DIANA 2026 partnership, are using the network, which could increase its real-world value beyond just trading.
Conclusion
Opinions on HBAR are mixed. Technical traders expect the price to move between $0.08 and $0.16, while those focused on fundamentals see growing enterprise use despite high market fear. Keep an eye on the $0.12 resistance level: closing above this on a weekly basis could confirm a bullish turnaround, while failing to do so might mean the recent 90-day drop of over 50% continues. The big question remains: will real-world adoption finally overcome the current cautious mood in crypto?
What is the latest news about HBAR?
Hedera (HBAR) is gaining attention from both big investors and businesses as new ETF milestones change how institutions view it. Here’s a quick summary of the latest developments:
- ETFs Now Hold 1% of HBAR Supply (December 30, 2025) – Canary Capital’s ETF has accumulated over 473 million HBAR tokens, showing strong institutional interest.
- Georgia Moves Real Estate Registry to Hedera (December 6, 2025) – The government of Georgia partners with Hedera to use blockchain technology for property records.
- Large Investors Buy HBAR During Market Dip (December 30, 2025) – Big holders are buying more HBAR as prices drop, betting on its long-term potential.
Deep Dive
1. ETFs Now Hold 1% of HBAR Supply (December 30, 2025)
What happened:
Canary Capital’s HBAR ETF, listed on Nasdaq, now owns about 473 million HBAR tokens, which is nearly 1% of all HBAR available. The fund added 8 million tokens in late December alone. These assets are securely held by well-known custodians Coinbase and BitGo.
Why it matters:
This is a positive sign for Hedera because ETFs lock up tokens in regulated funds, which reduces the chance of sudden selling and increases transparency. It also shows growing interest from big financial players, supporting Hedera’s work in areas like asset tokenization and artificial intelligence (CoinMarketCap).
2. Georgia Moves Real Estate Registry to Hedera (December 6, 2025)
What happened:
Georgia’s Ministry of Justice signed an agreement with Hedera to move its national real estate registry onto Hedera’s blockchain. This aims to reduce fraud and make property transactions faster and more secure.
Why it matters:
This partnership highlights Hedera’s usefulness for government projects. While the full rollout will take time, it confirms Hedera’s appeal to public institutions and its compatibility with international financial messaging standards (ISO 20022), which could lead to more government deals (CoinMarketCap).
3. Large Investors Buy HBAR During Market Dip (December 30, 2025)
What happened:
Data shows that “whales” — large holders of HBAR — have been buying more during a 30% price drop. Even though HBAR’s price fell 50% over the last 90 days, corporate wallets are increasing their holdings.
Why it matters:
This cautious optimism suggests that big investors believe in Hedera’s long-term prospects, including its partnerships in AI and decentralized finance (DeFi). However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48 show some selling pressure remains, so continued demand will be needed to push prices higher (CoinMarketCap).
Conclusion
Hedera is steadily gaining ground with a mix of ETF investments, real-world government use cases, and strong support from large investors. While short-term price swings continue, these trends strengthen HBAR’s position in regulated finance and enterprise blockchain solutions. The big question for 2026 is whether HBAR can overcome broader market challenges as ETF interest grows.
What is expected in the development of HBAR?
Hedera’s roadmap is centered on growing enterprise use, upgrading its network, and expanding its ecosystem.
- Expanding the Governing Council (Ongoing)
- Mainnet Upgrades Scheduled for Q1 2026
- Integrating AI and Sustainability in 2026
In-Depth Look
1. Expanding the Governing Council (Ongoing)
What’s Happening: Hedera’s Governing Council currently has 29 out of 39 seats filled and is working to bring in more global companies. New members like Blockchain for Energy (B4E) show a focus on tracking carbon emissions and meeting environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. The council members help decide on network upgrades and manage funds.
Why It Matters: This is neutral for HBAR. Adding diverse members improves the council’s credibility but means each member has less individual control.
2. Mainnet Upgrades (Q1 2026)
What’s Happening: After recent updates (v0.67/0.68), Hedera plans to add Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility to make smart contracts more efficient and enable better interaction with other blockchains. A tweet confirmed ongoing tests for sharding, a method to increase transaction speed.
Why It Matters: This is positive for HBAR. Improved scalability (over 10,000 transactions per second) and very low fees (around $0.0001 per transaction) could attract decentralized finance (DeFi) developers and users.
3. AI and Sustainability Integrations (2026)
What’s Happening: Hedera is partnering with EQTY Lab and NVIDIA to develop quantum-resistant AI tools. Additionally, Project Acacia, part of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot, aims to track emissions in real time.
Why It Matters: This is good news for HBAR. These enterprise-focused projects in regulated industries like carbon credits and foreign exchange trading could increase the token’s practical uses.
Conclusion
Hedera’s future depends on growing institutional adoption through governance improvements and real-world asset tokenization. Recent investment inflows, such as $67.9 million into the Canary HBAR ETF, show market confidence, but regulatory challenges remain. The key question is how Hedera will maintain decentralization while meeting the needs of large enterprises as it grows.
What updates are there in the HBAR code base?
Hedera’s latest updates focus on making the network more decentralized, improving tools for developers, and upgrading the overall system.
- Mainnet v0.67 Upgrade (November 12, 2025) – Better compatibility with Ethereum and updated transaction fees.
- Project Hiero Becomes Open Source (June 16, 2025) – Hedera’s codebase donated to a neutral foundation for community-driven development.
- New Command Line Interface (CLI) for Developers (June 25, 2025) – Simplifies deploying apps and managing accounts.
Deep Dive
1. Mainnet v0.67 Upgrade (November 12, 2025)
What happened: This update improved how Hedera works with Ethereum’s technology and changed how fees are charged for Ethereum-based transactions.
Key improvements:
- Jumbo EthereumTransaction: Allows bigger batches of transactions, which lowers costs for complex operations.
- No Fee for Failed Transactions: If an Ethereum transaction fails, you won’t be charged a fee, matching Ethereum’s approach.
Why it matters: This makes it easier and cheaper for Ethereum developers to build on Hedera, encouraging more activity between the two networks. (Source)
2. Project Hiero Becomes Open Source (June 16, 2025)
What happened: Hedera became the first major Layer 1 blockchain to fully open-source its code under the Linux Foundation’s decentralized governance.
Key points:
- Neutral Governance: The code is now managed by a neutral group (@lfdecentralized), reducing control by any single company.
- Community Proposals: Developers can now submit Hedera Improvement Proposals (HIPs) to suggest changes.
Why it matters: This move supports decentralization and transparency, which can attract more institutional users. However, decision-making might slow down as more voices get involved. (Source)
3. New Command Line Interface (CLI) for Developers (June 25, 2025)
What happened: Hedera introduced a new CLI tool that makes it easier for developers to set up test environments and automate tasks.
Key features:
- Automated Deployment: Less manual work when launching smart contracts.
- Account Management: Simplifies handling wallets that require multiple signatures.
Why it matters: Better developer tools can speed up the creation of decentralized apps (dApps), increasing Hedera’s usefulness and adoption. (Source)
Conclusion
Hedera’s recent updates highlight a strong push toward Ethereum compatibility, decentralized governance, and improved developer experience. These changes are important for attracting businesses and DeFi projects. With the next testnet upgrade (v0.68) planned for December 8, 2025, it will be interesting to see how Hedera balances growth and decentralization moving forward.
Why did the price of HBAR fall?
Hedera (HBAR) dropped 0.93% to $0.111 in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 0.95%. Three main factors influenced this movement:
- Low ETF Demand – The Canary Capital HBAR ETF saw no new investments recently, showing little interest from big institutional investors.
- Technical Challenges – HBAR’s price couldn’t break above the $0.12 resistance level and is now testing a key support point at $0.11169.
- Market Caution – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 32, indicating "Fear," which tends to favor Bitcoin over alternative coins like HBAR.
Deep Dive
1. Lack of Institutional Interest (Negative Impact)
Overview:
The Canary Capital HBAR ETF holds about 1% of all HBAR tokens (473 million), but on December 24, it saw no new investments (CoinMarketCap). Trading volume remains low, with only 10,500 shares traded on December 29. This suggests that big investors are not actively buying, even though the ETF is managed through trusted platforms like Coinbase and BitGo.
What this means:
Without fresh money coming in from institutions, there’s less support to keep HBAR’s price steady against selling pressure. On-chain data, like a falling On-Balance Volume (OBV), confirms that more tokens are being sold than bought.
What to watch:
Look for any changes in ETF inflows after January 2026. Increased investment could help stabilize or raise HBAR’s price.
2. Technical Weakness Below Key Price Levels (Negative Impact)
Overview:
HBAR’s price fell below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.11209 and faces resistance at the Fibonacci 23.6% level of $0.13896. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38.96, indicating the coin is oversold, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative at -0.0064.
What this means:
Traders see $0.11 as a critical support level. If HBAR closes below this, it could fall further to around $0.099, the low from December 23. The RSI suggests a possible bounce back, but the negative MACD points to ongoing downward momentum.
Key level to watch:
$0.11 support – breaking below this may trigger more selling as stop-loss orders get hit.
3. Risk-Averse Sentiment Toward Altcoins (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 32, signaling "Fear," and Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased to 59.08%. This means investors are moving their money into Bitcoin, seen as a safer bet during uncertain times.
What this means:
HBAR’s price has dropped about 45% over the past 60 days, reflecting a general weakness in alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). However, large investors (whales) are buying during these dips (Cryptonewsland), showing confidence in Hedera’s long-term potential, especially given its partnerships in areas like artificial intelligence and compliance with financial messaging standards (ISO 20022).
Conclusion
HBAR’s recent decline is tied to stagnant ETF demand, technical price challenges, and a cautious market environment. While big investors are accumulating, short-term outlook remains cautious. Key question: Can HBAR hold above $0.11, or will Bitcoin’s rising dominance continue to pressure altcoins like HBAR?
{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}