Why did the price of SOL fall?

Solana (SOL) dropped 4.14% to $221.07 in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 2.01%. The main reasons include forced selling from leveraged long positions, a technical setback at a key resistance level, and postponed decisions on Solana ETFs amid a cautious market environment.

1. Leveraged long liquidations – $40 million worth of SOL long positions were forcibly closed, increasing selling pressure.
2. Technical resistance – SOL failed to break above $237, leading traders to take profits; bearish signals appeared in technical indicators.
3. ETF delays – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed decisions on Solana ETFs to mid-October due to a government shutdown.

Deep Dive

1. Leveraged Long Squeeze (Negative Impact)

What happened: On October 8, over $460 million in long crypto positions were liquidated across the market, with $40 million of that in Solana. This happened after SOL couldn’t break above $237, triggering stop-loss orders and a chain reaction of selling.

Why it matters: Many traders use leverage—borrowing money to increase their position size—averaging about 25 times their original investment on derivatives platforms. This magnifies losses when prices fall. Funding rates (fees paid between traders) turned negative, showing less confidence in price increases. The price range between $218 and $220 became a “liquidity vacuum,” meaning fewer buyers were present, which sped up the price drop.

What to watch: Open interest (the total value of active contracts) is currently $14.2 billion. If it rises above $14.5 billion, it could indicate renewed buying interest.

2. Technical Resistance at $237 (Mixed Impact)

What happened: Solana hit strong resistance at $237, a level last seen in July 2025, forming a bearish “double-top” pattern—a sign that the price struggled to move higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, dropped from 62 to 46, and the MACD indicator turned negative, both suggesting weakening buying pressure.

Why it matters: After failing to break resistance, many traders sold to lock in profits, pushing the price toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $196—a common support area. However, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $225.57 acted as a support level, preventing a sharper decline.

What to watch: If SOL closes above $228 (the 7-day SMA), it could break this bearish pattern and signal a potential recovery.

3. ETF Delays and Market Uncertainty (Negative Impact)

What happened: The SEC delayed decisions on spot Solana ETFs from firms like Fidelity, VanEck, and Grayscale to October 11–16 because of a U.S. government shutdown. This pause slowed speculative buying, even though betting markets like Polymarket show a 99% chance of approval.

Why it matters: Institutional investors are holding back until there’s clarity on ETF approvals. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance rose to 58.39%, indicating that investment is shifting away from alternative cryptocurrencies like Solana.

What to watch: How quickly the SEC resumes normal operations after the shutdown. Faster reviews could boost Solana’s price momentum.

Conclusion

Solana’s recent price drop is due to a combination of profit-taking, pressure from leveraged trading, and delayed ETF approvals. The 30-day SMA near $225 offers some short-term support, but reclaiming $228 is important to improve market sentiment.

Key date to watch: The SEC’s October 11 deadline for VanEck’s Solana ETF decision. Approval could change Solana’s outlook, especially as institutional interest grows.

What could affect the price of SOL?

Solana’s future depends on regulatory approval and how well its network performs.

1. ETF Decision (Oct 16) – The SEC’s ruling on a Solana ETF could either spark a rally like Bitcoin’s recent ETF boost or cause sell-offs if delayed.
2. Tech Improvements (Q4 2025) – Upcoming upgrades like Firedancer aiming for over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) and Alpenglow targeting 150ms finality are designed to make Solana a faster blockchain.
3. Big Investor Moves – Recent $116 million in large investor sell-offs versus institutional buying creates a tug-of-war that affects price swings.

Deep Dive

1. Spot ETF Approval (Regulatory Impact – Mixed)

The SEC’s decision on VanEck’s Solana ETF, expected on October 16, is a key moment. If approved, it could bring a wave of institutional money, similar to Bitcoin’s 74% price jump after its ETF launch in 2024 (Bloomberg). If denied or delayed, it might lead to short-term selling, as seen when Solana’s price dropped 7% amid ETF uncertainty (Crypto.news).

What this means: Approval could push SOL’s price up to around $300 (about 35% higher than the current $221), while rejection might see it fall back to $200 support.

2. Network Scalability Upgrades (Positive Outlook)

Solana’s roadmap through 2027 includes fixes to improve transaction ordering (ACE) and a new Block Assembly Marketplace by Jito, which launched mid-September. Alongside Firedancer’s testnet aiming for over 1 million TPS, these upgrades are designed to reduce network outages and prevent exploitation by miners (Cointelegraph).

What this means: If successful, these improvements could increase developer activity (Solana already leads in monthly code updates) and boost decentralized finance (DeFi) usage, which historically has led to a 39% price increase over 90 days.

3. Whale Activity: Selling vs. Buying (Neutral Sentiment)

Recently, Galaxy Digital sold $41 million worth of SOL, while other institutional players like SOL Strategies bought over 420,000 SOL tokens (about $93 million) for staking, according to on-chain data (The Block).

What this means: Large investors are divided—some are taking profits near resistance levels around $230, while others are betting on long-term staking rewards of 7.4% APY, creating price volatility.

Conclusion

Solana’s price will be influenced by the upcoming ETF decision and how well its network upgrades perform. Institutional investments through ETFs could balance out retail selling, while technical improvements may strengthen Solana’s position as a competitor to Ethereum. The big question remains: Will the October ETF approval help SOL break free from Bitcoin’s broader market trends?

What are people saying about SOL?

The mood around Solana (SOL) is a mix of excitement and caution. Here’s the quick overview:

1. ETF excitement vs. price challenges – If approved, Solana could reach $440 to $600, but it faces resistance around $180 to $188.
2. Fast but sometimes unstable – Solana’s speed of 65,000 transactions per second (TPS) is impressive, but past outages still worry some investors.
3. Big players making moves – Large transfers of $23 million worth of SOL off exchanges suggest some investors are holding, while others are selling.

In-Depth Look

1. ETF optimism from @VirtualBacon0x

"SOL needs BTC ratio breakout for $800+... BlackRock building on SOL"
– @VirtualBacon0x (89K followers · 2.1M impressions · May 20, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Institutional interest, including futures trading and a dropped SEC lawsuit, plus a Canadian ETF, point to a possible price range of $440 to $600 if spot ETFs get approved by October 2025.

2. Technical analysis from @Neurashi

"Entry: $178.55, SL: $176.8 – smart money accumulating at $177.32–$177.54"
– @Neurashi (42K followers · 687K impressions · May 22, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Using AI to analyze charts, this suggests institutional investors are buying around $177. But if the price falls below $176.8, it could trigger automatic sell-offs.

3. Retail enthusiasm from @DemauxSOL

"Solana is everything. Bullish. Send it to 1000$"
– @DemauxSOL (18K followers · 310K impressions · August 29, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Many individual investors remain very optimistic, hoping for a big price jump to $1,000, though this is more hopeful than based on solid data.

4. Bearish warning from CoinMarketCap Community

"Breaking $149.30 confirms bearish continuation – next demand zone: $147"
– CoinMarketCap analyst (Post ID 361105311 · June 8, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Solana’s price struggles to break above $152–$153, indicating weakening momentum. If support at $126 breaks, a 30% price drop could follow.

Conclusion

The outlook for Solana is mixed. Optimism around ETFs and upgrades like Firedancer’s 1 million TPS boost supports long-term growth. However, technical challenges like resistance near $180–$188 and a high Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 71.48 suggest caution. Keep an eye on the SEC’s decision on ETFs expected in October—approval could push prices above $500, while rejection might bring prices down to the $150–$155 range, considered a “miner’s bottom.”

What is the latest news about SOL?

Solana is navigating the ups and downs of ETF interest and market volatility. Here’s the latest:

1. 3X Leveraged Solana ETFs Filed (October 8, 2025) – GraniteShares has applied for SEC approval to launch high-risk 3X leveraged SOL ETFs.
2. SOL Drops 6.8% During Market Sell-Off (October 8, 2025) – Profit-taking and $700 million in liquidations caused SOL and other altcoins to fall.
3. Spot Solana ETF Decision Expected Soon (October 16, 2025) – The SEC is set to decide on Solana spot ETF applications within days.

Deep Dive

1. 3X Leveraged Solana ETFs Filed (October 8, 2025)

What happened: GraniteShares, an asset management firm, filed to create ETFs that offer 3 times the daily return (or loss) of Solana, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. These ETFs are designed for short-term traders who want to amplify their gains or losses. This move comes as the SEC introduces new rules to make crypto ETF approvals easier.

Why it matters: This could be good news for institutional investors interested in Solana. However, 3X leverage means prices could swing wildly, increasing risk. If approved, these ETFs might attract more speculative trading but could also lead to bigger price fluctuations. (CryptoTimes)

2. SOL Drops 6.8% During Market Sell-Off (October 8, 2025)

What happened: Solana’s price fell to $217.47, down 6.8% in 24 hours, as the crypto market experienced $700 million in forced sell-offs (liquidations). Despite this, over 99.5% of Solana holders are still in profit. Large holders (whales) have been moving coins to exchanges, which could indicate selling pressure.

Why it matters: This price drop is likely due to traders taking profits after Solana’s strong 39% gain over the past 90 days. Still, the amount of Solana held on exchanges is near a six-year low, suggesting long-term investors are holding steady and not panicking. (CoinGape)

3. Spot Solana ETF Decision Expected Soon (October 16, 2025)

What happened: The SEC is approaching a deadline to approve or reject several applications for Solana spot ETFs. Experts believe there’s a 95% chance these ETFs will be approved, based on similar decisions for Bitcoin ETFs.

Why it matters: Approval could bring significant institutional investment into Solana, similar to the Bitcoin ETF rally in 2024. Solana faces resistance at $230, and if it breaks through, the next target could be $245. (Crypto.News)

Conclusion

Solana is balancing positive ETF developments with short-term price swings. While Bitcoin’s $120,000 price and broader economic uncertainty affect market sentiment, the upcoming SEC decision on Solana ETFs could spark a new upward trend. Keep an eye on exchange activity and ETF news this week to see how things unfold.

What is expected in the development of SOL?

Solana’s upcoming plans focus on making the network faster, more scalable, and better suited for big institutions.

1. Alpenglow Upgrade (Late 2025) – Aims to speed up transaction finality to just 150 milliseconds.
2. Block Capacity Boost (Q4 2025) – Increases block processing power by 66%, reaching 100 million compute units.
3. Firedancer Validator Client (2026) – Designed to handle over 1 million transactions per second (TPS).
4. Internet Capital Markets (2027) – Introduces programmable transaction ordering through a system called ACE.

Deep Dive

1. Alpenglow Upgrade (Late 2025)

What it is: This upgrade will reduce the time it takes for a transaction to be considered final from 12 seconds down to 150 milliseconds by moving some validator voting off the main blockchain. This means trades and decentralized finance (DeFi) activities can settle almost instantly. Early tests also show a 25% increase in how much data each block can handle.

Why it matters: This is good news for Solana (SOL) users who rely on fast trading and financial apps. However, the upgrade depends on validators (the network’s operators) adopting the new system, and there’s a risk of network issues during the transition.

2. Block Capacity Boost via SIMD-0286 (Q4 2025)

What it is: This upgrade will increase Solana’s block compute units from 60 million to 100 million, a 66% jump. This follows a smaller 20% increase earlier in 2025. The goal is to reduce network congestion, especially during times when popular “meme coins” cause transaction slowdowns.

Why it matters: More capacity means Solana can handle more apps and users at once, which is positive. But bigger blocks might be harder for smaller validators to manage, so thorough testing is needed to prevent outages (source).

3. Firedancer Validator Client (2026)

What it is: Firedancer is a complete rewrite of Solana’s validator software by Jump Crypto. It aims to push transaction speeds beyond 1 million TPS by improving how the network communicates and reaches agreement on transactions. It also reduces reliance on Solana Labs’ original software, helping decentralize the network.

Why it matters: This upgrade could greatly improve Solana’s scalability and reliability in the long run. However, deploying it fully on the main network will be challenging and the timeline is uncertain (source).

4. Internet Capital Markets Roadmap (2027)

What it is: Solana plans to become a key platform for tokenized assets by introducing Application-Controlled Execution (ACE), which lets smart contracts control the order of transactions. Supporting tools include:

• BAM: A live marketplace where blocks are built in a decentralized way.
• DoubleZero: A private, low-latency fiber network for validators, expected to be live by mid-September 2025, replacing the public internet for faster communication.

Why it matters: These features aim to attract institutional investors by offering more control and speed. However, regulatory and technical challenges remain.

Conclusion

Solana’s roadmap is focused on boosting raw speed and building infrastructure that meets institutional needs. Upgrades like Alpenglow and Firedancer could make SOL a leader in fast blockchain transactions, while ACE and DoubleZero target professional adoption. Still, risks around smooth implementation and keeping the network decentralized will be important to watch. The big question: can Solana’s technical advances outpace other blockchain scaling efforts?

What updates are there in the SOL code base?

Solana's code updates focus on routine maintenance and improvements to support future growth and scalability.

1. Dependency Upgrades (March 2025) – Security fixes and better developer tools.
2. RPC Method Migration (Dec 2024) – Updated communication methods to align with new standards.
3. Scalability Proposals (July 2025) – Plans to increase block capacity and speed, currently being tested.

Deep Dive

1. Dependency Upgrades (March 2025)

Overview: Solana updated some of its development tools like Rollup, TypeDoc, and ESLint. These updates fix minor security issues and improve how the software is built. For example, Rollup 4.30.1 fixed a rare problem in how code modules are bundled together.

What this means: These are routine maintenance tasks that keep Solana’s codebase healthy and secure over time. No major impact expected. (Source)

2. RPC Method Migration (Dec 2024)

Overview: Solana’s web3.js library replaced older methods (getConfirmedBlock, getRecentBlockhash) with newer ones (getBlock, getLatestBlockhash) that follow the Agave v2 standard. This change supports the mainnet-beta 2.0 upgrade and improves compatibility with validator software like Firedancer.

What this means: This update is positive for Solana. It makes developer tools more efficient and ready for upcoming infrastructure improvements, all while keeping backward compatibility. (Source)

3. Scalability Proposals (July 2025)

Overview: Although not direct code changes, proposals like SIMD-0256 and Alpenglow are being tested to increase Solana’s block capacity to 60 million Compute Units (CUs) and reduce transaction finality time to 150 milliseconds. These upgrades depend on validator clients like Firedancer to handle the higher workload.

What this means: These proposals are promising for Solana’s future, aiming to support more activity in decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFTs. However, it’s important to watch how validator diversity evolves to maintain network security. (Source)

Conclusion

Solana’s recent updates show a mix of steady maintenance and ambitious plans to scale. While the codebase remains stable, ecosystem proposals highlight efforts to boost performance and capacity. The key question is whether validator diversity will keep up as new technologies like Firedancer and Alpenglow are introduced.