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Why did the price of SOL go up?

Solana (SOL) increased by 3.59% to $163.73 in the past 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 2.19%. The main reasons behind this rise are:

  1. ETF Momentum – Grayscale introduced a new Solana staking ETF ($GSOL), sparking interest from institutional investors.
  2. Technical Rebound – Buyers stepped in to support the $150 level, aiming for a breakout above $165.78.
  3. Macro Catalyst – Former President Trump’s plan for a $2,000 tariff-funded dividend boosted overall crypto market sentiment.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Product Launch (Positive Impact)

Overview: On November 9, Grayscale launched its Solana Trust ETF ($GSOL), which provides direct exposure to SOL along with 100% staking rewards. This follows recent Solana ETF filings by Bitwise and 21Shares.

What this means: ETFs make it easier for traditional investors to get involved, which can reduce the available supply of SOL (currently 553 million coins circulating) and signal growing regulatory acceptance. Like previous Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, this could lead to billions of dollars flowing into Solana if approved.

What to watch: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make decisions on spot Solana ETFs by October 2025 (Bitwise).

2. Technical Resilience (Mixed Impact)

Overview: SOL bounced back from the $150–$155 support zone, which has been tested three times since October. The 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $165.78 is now acting as resistance.

What this means: The repeated support at $150 suggests that large investors are accumulating SOL. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.31 shows that the coin is moving out of oversold territory, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -2.49 remains bearish. If SOL closes above $165, it could trigger short sellers to cover their positions, pushing the price toward the $190–$200 resistance levels based on Fibonacci retracement.

Key metric: Keep an eye on the $165.78 EMA—a sustained move above this level would confirm a bullish trend.

3. Macro Sentiment Shift (Positive Impact)

Overview: On November 9, Trump announced a $2,000 dividend funded by tariffs, which lifted crypto prices broadly. SOL gained 2.49% amid this positive sentiment. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stalled at resistance, reducing pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

What this means: Traders see this policy as potentially inflationary, which tends to increase interest in cryptocurrencies. Since SOL has a strong correlation with Bitcoin (0.89), it benefits more from positive macroeconomic trends affecting high-risk assets.

Conclusion

Solana’s recent price increase is driven by a combination of new institutional investment products, strong technical support, and favorable macroeconomic news. Although some bearish signals like the MACD remain, progress on ETFs and the solid $150 support level suggest that the price could continue to rise if it breaks above $165.

Key watch: Will SOL close above its 9-day EMA at $165.78 to confirm that this rebound can last?

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What could affect the price of SOL?

Solana is at a crossroads, balancing potential technical improvements with broader market uncertainties.

  1. ETF Decision Coming Soon – The SEC is expected to make a final decision on spot Solana ETFs by October 13, 2025 (OneWifo).
  2. Network Upgrades – Upcoming updates like Alpenglow (which aims to speed up transaction finality to 150 milliseconds) and BAM are designed to attract more institutional users.
  3. Growth in Tokenized Assets – Real-world assets (RWAs) on Solana have grown 140% this year, now totaling over $418 million in tokenized value (VanEck).

In-Depth Analysis

1. ETF Decision: A Potential Boost

What’s Happening:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide by October 13 whether to approve spot Solana ETFs, including those from Grayscale ($GSOL) and Bitwise ($BSOL). Experts believe there’s over a 90% chance of approval, similar to past Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals.

Why It Matters:
If approved, Solana could see more than $1.5 billion in new investments within the first year (JPMorgan). On the other hand, if the SEC rejects the ETFs, Solana’s price might fall back to around $135. Because Solana’s price movements are closely linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows (with a strong correlation of +0.82), this decision could cause significant price swings.

2. Network Upgrades: Improving Speed and Fairness

What’s Happening:

Why It Matters:
If these upgrades work as planned, Solana could become the preferred blockchain for internet-based capital markets. However, any delays or technical issues—like the 5-hour network outage in February 2024—could hurt confidence among institutional investors.

3. Market Sentiment and Economic Factors: Potential Headwinds

What’s Happening:

Why It Matters:
If the U.S. dollar strengthens beyond 100.25, it could put downward pressure on Solana’s price, possibly pushing it toward $144 support. However, a recent announcement by former President Trump about a $2,000 tariff dividend (Coindesk) might temporarily increase retail interest in cryptocurrencies, including Solana.

Conclusion

Solana’s price outlook depends heavily on the SEC’s ETF decision (which could drive prices up) versus broader economic challenges (which could push prices down). The price range between $150 and $165 is critical. A weekly close above $176 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) could spark a rally toward $200. If it fails to hold, prices might drop to around $131. Keep an eye on the SEC’s ETF ruling and the open interest in CME Solana futures, as these will reveal how strongly institutional investors feel about Solana’s future.

Will Solana’s growth in real-world asset tokenization be enough to offset the $20 billion decline in DeFi total value locked (TVL)?

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What are people saying about SOL?

The Solana (SOL) community is divided between strong optimism and cautious skepticism. Here’s what’s currently trending:

  1. Price targets between $300 and $500 are popular among optimistic investors, driven by excitement around potential ETF approvals.
  2. Big institutions are showing interest in SOL, with plans to raise $1 billion for expanding validator infrastructure.
  3. On the technical side, SOL is struggling to break through important resistance levels, which could slow its growth.

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: Bullish $500 Price Target

“Solana Price Forecast at $320 for 2025, With Remittix and Shiba Inu Whale Accumulation Rising”
– @johnmorganFL (35.2K followers · 49.8K posts · August 16, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Optimism is based on the possibility of ETF approvals and growing institutional investment. However, for these price targets to be realistic, SOL needs to break above the $180–$200 resistance zone.

2. @SOL Strategies: $1 Billion Validator Expansion

“SOL Strategies aims to raise $1B for Solana validator infrastructure”
– @solstrategies (21.4K followers · 1,036 posts · May 27, 2025)
View original post
What this means: This large fundraising effort is good news for network security and growth. However, it could also concentrate control among a few large players, which might reduce the influence of smaller investors and increase centralization risks.

3. @Neurashi: Technical Resistance at $180 Signals Bearish Risk

“SOL faces rejection at $184.49 – deeper correction likely below $180”
– @Neurashi (45.7K followers · 533 posts · May 22, 2025)
View original post
What this means: If SOL can’t hold above $180, it could lead to a short-term price drop of about 15%, potentially falling to $152 support. This suggests caution for traders expecting a quick rebound.

Conclusion

The outlook for Solana is mixed. Institutional interest and infrastructure upgrades point to long-term confidence, but recent price drops and technical challenges show that traders remain cautious in the short term. Keep an eye on the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s Solana ETF (expected by late November) and the impact of the upcoming Firedancer upgrade, which aims to reduce network downtime. These developments could significantly influence Solana’s future direction.

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What is the latest news about SOL?

Solana is facing mixed signals right now, with growing interest from institutional investors through ETFs but some technical challenges creating uncertainty. Here’s the latest update:

  1. Grayscale Launches Solana ETF (Nov 9, 2025) – The first U.S. Solana ETF offers investors direct staking rewards.
  2. Trump’s $2,000 Dividend Plan Boosts SOL (Nov 9, 2025) – A government policy announcement sparked a 2.5% rally in SOL.
  3. SOL Faces Key Price Resistance (Nov 9, 2025) – Experts are divided on whether SOL will break through the $150-$165 range or fall back.

Deep Dive

1. Grayscale Launches Solana ETF (Nov 9, 2025)

What happened: Grayscale introduced the Solana Trust ETF ($GSOL), which allows investors to earn staking rewards from SOL directly, with no management fees. This product responds to growing demand from institutional investors wanting regulated access to Solana.
Why it matters: This ETF is a positive sign for Solana because it connects big investors to the Solana network, which could help stabilize demand. However, other companies like VanEck and Fidelity are also applying to launch similar ETFs, which might reduce the initial excitement. (Cryptofront News)

2. Trump’s $2,000 Dividend Plan Boosts SOL (Nov 9, 2025)

What happened: Former President Trump announced a $2,000 dividend funded by tariffs, which triggered a broad rally in cryptocurrencies. SOL’s price rose 2.5% to $160, although it is still down 11% over the past week.
Why it matters: This policy could encourage more spending on cryptocurrencies in the short term, which is good for SOL. But if the U.S. dollar strengthens too much (specifically if the DXY index goes above 100.25), it could reverse these gains. (CoinDesk)

3. SOL Faces Key Price Resistance (Nov 9, 2025)

What happened: SOL is struggling to move past the $160-$165 price range. Analysts are split—some expect a bounce back to $200, while others predict a drop to $131. Key technical levels to watch are the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $165.78 and support at $150.
Why it matters: This situation is uncertain and could lead to big price swings. If SOL breaks above $165 and holds, it could signal a recovery. If it fails, the price might retest lows near $135 from earlier in November. Traders are closely watching large investors (“whales”) and ETF inflows for clues. (Cryptofront News)

Conclusion

Solana’s near-term outlook depends on how well the new ETF is adopted, changes in overall market liquidity, and whether it can hold important price levels. The $160-$165 range will be key to watch next week to see if institutional investment can offset recent declines in decentralized finance (DeFi), which has lost about $10 billion in total value locked (TVL).


What is expected in the development of SOL?

Solana’s roadmap is focused on improving scalability, building better market infrastructure, and encouraging adoption by large institutions.

  1. Alpenglow Upgrade (Q1 2026) – Aims to speed up transaction finality to just 150 milliseconds and make validators more efficient.
  2. Firedancer Mainnet Launch (Late 2025) – Introduces a new validator client designed to handle more transactions per second (TPS).
  3. SIMD-0256/0266 Upgrades (2026) – Increases block capacity by 25% and cuts token operation costs by 98%.
  4. Internet Capital Markets Vision (2027) – Plans to create fast, programmable financial networks for institutional use.

Deep Dive

1. Alpenglow Upgrade (Q1 2026)

Overview:
Alpenglow is Solana’s biggest core upgrade to date. It aims to reduce the time it takes to finalize a transaction from about 12 seconds down to just 150 milliseconds. This is done by moving validator voting off the blockchain and improving how nodes communicate (VanEck).

What this means:

2. Firedancer Mainnet Launch (Late 2025)

Overview:
Firedancer is a new validator client developed by Jump Crypto. It has been tested to handle over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) and removes fixed limits on block size, allowing the network to scale based on hardware capabilities (Blockworks).

What this means:

3. SIMD-0256/0266 Upgrades (2026)

Overview:

What this means:

4. Internet Capital Markets Vision (2027)

Overview:
Solana’s 2027 plan focuses on building infrastructure for institutional markets by introducing:

What this means:

Conclusion

Solana’s roadmap aims to balance technical improvements like faster transaction speeds and validator upgrades with building financial infrastructure that appeals to institutions. These upgrades could strengthen Solana’s position as a high-performance blockchain, but success depends on smooth execution and market conditions.

How will Solana’s focus on low-latency trading infrastructure impact its competition with Ethereum and centralized exchanges?


What updates are there in the SOL code base?

Solana’s software updates focus on improving speed, capacity, and developer tools, with major upgrades currently being tested.

  1. Agave 3.0 Performance Boost (October 18, 2025) – Transactions are now 30–40% faster, with network improvements that make data flow more efficient.
  2. Block Capacity Increased to 60 Million Compute Units (July 2025) – This upgrade allows about 20% more transactions per block.
  3. RPC Method Migration (December 2024) – Updates to developer tools make coding easier while keeping compatibility with existing systems.

Deep Dive

1. Agave 3.0 Performance Boost (October 18, 2025)

What happened: The Agave 3.0 upgrade made Solana’s transaction processing significantly faster—by 30 to 40%. It introduced a new technology called eXpress Data Path (XDP) to improve how data is shared across the network.

Other technical improvements include allowing more complex instructions in transactions, increasing limits on how much computation can be done on a single account, and speeding up communication between nodes (computers validating the network). These changes reduce delays in block propagation by about 7.5%, helping validators work more efficiently.

Why it matters: Faster transactions make Solana more attractive for applications that need quick processing, like decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and high-frequency trading. This upgrade strengthens Solana’s position as a high-speed blockchain. (Source)

2. Block Capacity Increased to 60 Million Compute Units (July 2025)

What happened: A proposal called SIMD-0256 raised the maximum computational work per block from 48 million to 60 million Compute Units (CUs). This means Solana can handle about 20% more transactions in each block.

This upgrade came after an emergency fix in April 2025 that addressed a security issue without any loss of funds. The increased capacity helped reduce network congestion during times of high demand, such as meme coin trading surges. However, it also sparked discussions about whether the higher hardware requirements for validators (the network’s computers) might make the network less decentralized.

Why it matters: This change is a mixed bag. While it improves transaction capacity, making Solana better for gaming and DeFi apps, it could make it harder for smaller validators to participate, potentially leading to centralization. (Source)

3. RPC Method Migration (December 2024)

What happened: Solana updated its developer tools by replacing older Remote Procedure Call (RPC) methods like getConfirmedBlock with newer ones like getBlock. This aligns with the Agave version 2 standards for the mainnet-beta 2.0 release.

These changes are backward-compatible, meaning existing applications continue to work while developers benefit from a simpler and more consistent coding experience.

Why it matters: This is positive for Solana’s ecosystem because easier development encourages more projects to build on the platform. Developers only needed to make minor code updates to adapt. (Source)

Conclusion

Solana is actively improving its blockchain by focusing on faster transaction speeds (Agave 3.0), higher capacity (60 million Compute Units per block), and better developer tools (RPC updates). However, there are concerns about whether increasing hardware demands might reduce decentralization by limiting who can run validators.

With upcoming technologies like Alpenglow aiming for 150ms finality times and Firedancer targeting over 1 million transactions per second (TPS), Solana is pushing toward enterprise-level performance. Keep an eye on how validator locations and hardware costs evolve to understand if Solana can balance speed and decentralization effectively.