What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche’s price depends on big investors getting involved, network improvements, and changes in regulations.

1. Big Institutional Deal – A $675 million treasury company could reduce the number of AVAX coins available (Positive)
2. ETF Developments – Bitwise and Grayscale are trying to launch AVAX ETFs, but regulatory delays create uncertainty (Mixed)
3. Octane Upgrade – Lower fees and better network scaling encourage more use (Positive)

In-Depth Look

1. Big Institutional SPAC Deal Could Reduce AVAX Supply (Positive)

What’s Happening:
Avalanche Treasury Co. is merging with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. in a deal worth $675 million (Blockworks). After listing on Nasdaq in early 2026, they plan to buy over $1 billion worth of AVAX tokens. Investors get a 23% discount on the tokens, and the Avalanche Foundation has exclusive rights to sell tokens to them. This is similar to a past $550 million move by AgriFORCE, which caused their stock price to triple in September 2025.

Why It Matters:
When big companies buy large amounts of AVAX, fewer tokens are available on the market (there are currently 422 million circulating). This scarcity can push prices higher. Similar strategies with Bitcoin have led to long-term price increases.

2. ETF Filings Bring Both Hope and Risk (Mixed)

What’s Happening:
Bitwise and Grayscale have applied to launch spot AVAX ETFs (CoinDesk), but the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed decisions until July 2026. Additionally, uncertainty around leadership at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) adds regulatory risk. Meanwhile, VanEck has launched a $100 million Avalanche fund focused on tokenizing real-world assets, which could attract institutional investors.

Why It Matters:
If ETFs are approved, it would open the door for mainstream investors to buy AVAX easily, potentially driving prices up. But if the SEC rejects them, it could slow down growth. AVAX’s recent 29% price increase shows optimism is already priced in, so expect some ups and downs.

3. Octane Upgrade Lowers Fees and Boosts Network Use (Positive)

What’s Happening:
In July 2025, Avalanche rolled out the Octane Upgrade, cutting transaction fees on the C-Chain by 96% (from $0.25 to just $0.01) and adding new rewards for validators (Community Post). With new DeFi projects like Ethena and Pendle joining, daily transactions have exceeded 1.5 million, showing strong developer interest.

Why It Matters:
Lower fees and the ability to create scalable sub-networks make Avalanche more attractive for businesses and developers. For example, FIFA is moving its NFTs to Avalanche. More network use usually means higher demand for AVAX tokens over time.

Conclusion

Avalanche looks set for price gains in the near future thanks to reduced supply from big treasury deals and improvements from the Octane Upgrade. However, delays in ETF approvals or broader market downturns could challenge the $30 price level. Keep an eye on CFTC leadership decisions and Avalanche Treasury Co.’s Nasdaq listing to see if big investors will keep supporting AVAX despite market uncertainties.

What are people saying about AVAX?

Avalanche (AVAX) is getting a lot of attention lately, with excitement coming from big investors and important technical price levels. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Bitwise’s AVAX ETF filing boosts confidence in real-world use
2. The $27 price level is a key hurdle for reaching $40 and beyond
3. The ARENA app’s price doubling shows growing activity in the Avalanche ecosystem

Deep Dive

1. Bitwise’s ETF Filing Sparks Optimism

@ManLyNFT shared:
"Bitwise files an @avax ETF and real-world asset volumes jump +58%... You’re still not bullish?"
View original post

What this means:
This is positive news for Avalanche (AVAX). When a company files for an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund), it shows that big institutional investors are taking notice. At the same time, a 58% increase in real-world asset transactions means Avalanche is being used for practical purposes, not just trading. This combination suggests growing confidence in the network’s value.

2. ARENA App Doubles in Value

@Chilearmy123 noted:
"$ARENA [...] on Avalanche is up 2x [...] AVAX season incoming?"
View original post

What this means:
This is another positive sign for AVAX. The ARENA app, built on Avalanche, has doubled in price, indicating more developers and users are engaging with the platform. Increased activity like this often leads to higher demand for AVAX tokens, which can boost its price.

3. Large Investors Show Confidence

@im_BrokeDoomer reported:
"AgriForce raising $500M to buy $AVAX [...] Liquidity sweep already done"
View original post

What this means:
This is a strong bullish signal. When big investors (often called “whales”) commit large amounts of money—like $500 million—to buy AVAX, it usually means they expect the price to rise. This kind of strategic buying can lead to price increases, especially if the token continues to have real-world uses.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is positive. Interest from institutional investors, growth in ecosystem apps, and large-scale buying all point to potential price gains. The $27 price level is a crucial resistance point—if AVAX breaks above it, the path to $40 or even $46 becomes more likely. Additionally, Avalanche’s network activity remains strong, with 35.8 million transactions on its C-Chain in August showing real usage. Keep an eye on the AVAX/BTC pair—if AVAX outperforms Bitcoin, it could lead the next wave of altcoin growth.

What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is making big moves to attract institutional investors with a $675 million Nasdaq deal and new momentum in its ecosystem. Here’s the latest update:

1. Avalanche Treasury Co. SPAC Merger (October 2, 2025) – A $675 million deal to list on Nasdaq, offering investors a discounted way to get exposure to AVAX.
2. AgriFORCE Rebrands as AVAX One (September 24, 2025) – Plans to raise $550 million to buy and hold AVAX, boosting interest from institutions.

Deep Dive

1. Avalanche Treasury Co. SPAC Merger (October 2, 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche Treasury Co. (AVAT) is merging with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. (MLAC) in a $675 million SPAC deal. The goal is to list on Nasdaq by early 2026. The new company will start with $460 million in assets, including a $200 million discounted purchase of AVAX tokens through the Avalanche Foundation. Investors get in at a 23% discount and will have priority access to future token sales from the Avalanche Foundation.

What this means:
This is a positive development for AVAX because it creates a regulated, institutional-friendly way to buy and stake AVAX tokens. This could lock up over $1 billion worth of AVAX, reducing the available supply and encouraging growth in the Avalanche ecosystem. This move is similar to how some companies have added Bitcoin to their corporate treasuries.
(Decrypt)

2. AgriFORCE Rebrands as AVAX One (September 24, 2025)

Overview:
AgriFORCE Growing Systems (Nasdaq: AGRI) has changed its name to AVAX One and announced plans to raise $550 million to buy and hold AVAX tokens. Supported by Hivemind Capital and Anthony Scaramucci, the company aims to hold over $700 million in AVAX and use strategies like staking and MEV (Maximal Extractable Value) to generate returns.

What this means:
This shows growing confidence in AVAX as a valuable asset for corporate treasuries, following a similar path to Bitcoin’s adoption by institutions. The rebranding highlights increased corporate interest in Avalanche’s long-term potential, though success depends on raising enough capital and executing the plan well.
(Yahoo Finance)

Conclusion

Avalanche is focusing heavily on attracting institutional investors through treasury-focused companies and corporate changes that increase demand for AVAX. These efforts support AVAX’s usefulness, but their success depends on continued investment and growth in the Avalanche ecosystem. The big question is whether these moves will create a supply shortage that drives up value or if risks like token dilution will arise as more tokens become available.

What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche’s roadmap is focused on attracting big institutions, making its subnet technology more scalable, and growing its overall ecosystem.

1. $1B AVAX Treasury Initiative (October 2025) – Setting up two U.S.-based treasury funds to buy AVAX at discounted prices.
2. Subnet Customization Upgrades (Q4 2025) – Improved tools for game developers and businesses using the Avalanche9000 system.
3. Interoperability & Identity Solutions (2026) – New features for cross-chain communication and decentralized identity management.

Deep Dive

1. $1B AVAX Treasury Initiative (October 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche Foundation plans to establish two treasury companies in the U.S. by October 2025, aiming to raise $1 billion to purchase AVAX tokens at discounted rates (Financial Times). These treasuries are designed to stabilize AVAX’s market liquidity and attract large institutional investors, similar to how some companies hold Bitcoin as part of their corporate treasury.

What this means:
This move is positive for AVAX because buying and holding large amounts of the token can reduce the supply available on the market, potentially increasing its price. However, there are risks such as regulatory challenges or delays in setting up these treasuries.

2. Subnet Customization Upgrades (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Following the Avalanche9000 upgrade (ACP-77), Avalanche will offer a pay-as-you-go model for deploying subnets, which lowers upfront costs by about 90% compared to Ethereum Layer 2 solutions (Blockworks). Popular projects like FIFA and MapleStory Universe already use Avalanche subnets to run their own high-performance, isolated blockchains.

What this means:
Lower costs and easier customization make Avalanche more attractive for gaming companies and enterprises. However, competition from other subnet platforms like Cosmos could impact Avalanche’s growth.

3. Interoperability & Identity Solutions (2026)

Overview:
Avalanche plans to enhance its Interchain Messaging (ICM) protocol and introduce decentralized identity tools. These upgrades will enable smoother asset transfers across different blockchains and support compliance frameworks for real-world assets (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
Improved interoperability is generally positive, as it encourages more cross-chain activity. Still, success depends on how quickly developers adopt these tools and how regulations evolve.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s roadmap highlights a strong focus on gaining institutional support, improving subnet flexibility, and enhancing cross-chain capabilities. While the treasury initiatives and subnet upgrades are close to completion, long-term success will rely on keeping developer interest high and managing broader market risks.

Could Avalanche’s subnet-driven growth outpace Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem in 2026?

What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche made big improvements to its technology in mid-2025, focusing on making the network faster, cheaper, and more appealing for businesses.

1. Octane Upgrade (April 2025) – Cut transaction fees by 98% and changed how validators earn rewards.
2. eERC Standard (July 2025) – Introduced encrypted ERC-20 tokens to give businesses more control over privacy.

Deep Dive

1. Octane Upgrade (April 2025)

Overview:
This major update changed how fees are calculated and how validators are paid. As a result, the average fee on Avalanche’s C-Chain dropped from about $0.25 to just $0.01.

Key technical changes:

• ACP-77: Changed validator staking from a fixed 2,000 AVAX to a system based on actual network use, lowering the cost to create subnets by 83% (Source)
• ACP-125: Lowered the minimum base fee from 25 nAVAX to 0.1 nAVAX
• ACP-176: Added fees that adjust based on network congestion

What this means:
Lower fees and predictable costs make Avalanche more attractive for real-world applications, especially those involving assets like real estate or commodities. Validators now earn rewards based on activity across different chains, encouraging them to support the network more actively.

2. eERC Standard (July 2025)

Overview:
Avalanche’s AvaCloud platform introduced encrypted ERC-20 tokens. This lets businesses control who can see transaction details, which is important for privacy and regulatory compliance.

Implementation details:

• Allows selective auditing to meet regulations
• Works with existing Ethereum-compatible tools
• First adopted by institutional partners for private stablecoin transfers

What this means:
This feature offers more privacy options for businesses, but its impact depends on future regulations. It positions Avalanche as a strong option for confidential transactions in regulated industries (Source).

Conclusion

The Octane Upgrade and eERC standard show Avalanche’s commitment to becoming a business-friendly blockchain by lowering costs and offering customizable privacy. These updates helped drive record transaction volumes—35.8 million monthly C-Chain transactions in August 2025. Keep an eye on subnet growth in the coming months to see if developers continue to build on Avalanche. Encrypted tokens could become a key advantage for Avalanche in regulated markets.

Why did the price of AVAX go up?

Avalanche (AVAX) increased by 1.15% in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 2.89%. This growth is supported by positive momentum from a $675 million institutional SPAC deal and ongoing expansion of the Avalanche network. Key points to note:

1. Institutional SPAC Deal – The Avalanche Treasury Co. merger points to strong long-term demand.
2. Token Accumulation Plans – Treasury groups plan to acquire over $1 billion worth of AVAX.
3. Technical Stability – AVAX price remains above important moving averages despite mixed signals.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional SPAC Deal (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Avalanche Treasury Co. (AVAT) announced a $675 million merger with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. (The Defiant), which includes a $200 million discounted purchase of AVAX tokens from the Avalanche Foundation. The goal is to list on Nasdaq by early 2026, giving institutional investors a discounted way to invest in AVAX.

What this means:

• Creates steady demand: After the merger, AVAT plans to buy over $1 billion in AVAX, which could reduce selling pressure.
• Shows Avalanche’s appeal to big investors, similar to successful treasury models seen with Ethereum and Solana.
• Could spark interest in ETFs, as similar deals helped pave the way for Ethereum ETFs expected in 2025.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on regulatory approvals and how AVAT decides to allocate its assets.

2. Treasury Token Accumulation (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Two Nasdaq-listed companies—AVAT and AgriFORCE (which is rebranding as AVAX One)—plan to collectively hold more than $1 billion in AVAX tokens. AgriFORCE’s shift in focus caused its stock to jump 200% in one day last September (CoinTelegraph).

What this means:

• Supply impact: These companies could hold about 2.4% of all AVAX tokens in circulation, potentially limiting available supply.
• Staking rewards: AgriFORCE aims to earn nearly $47 million annually through staking, encouraging them to hold tokens long-term.
• This mirrors Ethereum’s treasury trends in 2025, which helped boost ETH prices by 50% in July.

3. Technical Stability (Mixed Signals)

Overview:
AVAX’s price is staying above key moving averages—the 30-day average at $29.34 and the 200-day average at $22.51—but faces resistance near $32.88, a key Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD indicator shows short-term bearish momentum, while the RSI suggests neutral market conditions.

What this means:

• Positive trend remains: The price is still 44% above the 200-day average, which generally supports buying on dips.
• Potential breakout: If AVAX closes above $32.88, it could move up toward $39.40, based on technical extensions.

Conclusion

AVAX’s recent gains reflect strong institutional buying and positive momentum in the altcoin market, though technical indicators suggest some consolidation may occur. The SPAC deal aligns AVAX with Ethereum’s growth strategy for 2025, and treasury groups accumulating tokens could reduce supply and support prices.

Key level to watch: Can AVAX stay above $29.49 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement) to confirm continued upward momentum?