Why did the price of AVAX fall?

Avalanche (AVAX) dropped 1.42% to $16.19 over the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.46%. The main reasons include technical sell-offs, broader market uncertainty, and mixed signals from blockchain activity.

1. Technical Weakness – AVAX fell below a key support level at $16.50. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows it’s oversold, but there’s no clear sign of a rebound yet.
2. Market Caution – The total crypto market value dropped 1.46%, with investors showing “Extreme Fear” (Fear & Greed Index at 21). Bitcoin’s share of the market rose to nearly 60%.
3. Institutional Delays – The approval of Grayscale’s AVAX exchange-traded fund (ETF) has been pushed back to July 15, 2025, slowing short-term buying interest.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

What happened:
AVAX fell below $16.50, a key support level based on Fibonacci retracement (a tool traders use to identify price levels). It’s now testing the $16 level, which was a base in March. The RSI is at 30.22, indicating the coin is oversold, but the MACD (a momentum indicator) remains negative, showing ongoing downward pressure.

What this means:
Traders see $16 as a critical level. If AVAX stays below this, automated sell orders could push the price down further to around $14.65. However, oversold conditions sometimes lead to short-term price rebounds, especially if trading volume is strong. AVAX’s 24-hour trading volume ratio is 6.01%, suggesting there’s enough activity to support a bounce.

What to watch:
If AVAX climbs back above $17.31 (the 7-day simple moving average), it could signal that the selling pressure is easing. But if it falls below $16, it might trigger more sell-offs.

2. Overall Crypto Market Sentiment (Negative Impact)

What happened:
The total value of all cryptocurrencies dropped 1.46% to $3.38 trillion. Altcoins like AVAX were hit harder as Bitcoin’s dominance increased to 59.85%. The Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, is at 21, indicating “Extreme Fear” — the lowest level since March 2025.

What this means:
Investors are moving toward Bitcoin, seen as a safer asset, due to regulatory uncertainties and delays in ETF approvals. AVAX’s price movements are closely following Bitcoin’s, with a 30-day correlation of 0.89. Traders are also reducing their risk by lowering leveraged positions, as shown by a 2.29% drop in open interest on derivatives.

3. Institutional Developments Delayed (Mixed Impact)

What happened:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on Grayscale’s AVAX spot ETF until July 15, 2025. Meanwhile, VanEck’s $100 million Avalanche ecosystem fund saw a 13% drop in monthly inflows.

What this means:
Institutional investors are holding back until there’s more regulatory clarity. However, the long-term outlook remains positive. AVAX’s blockchain activity is growing, with 40 to 50 million daily transactions — a 275% increase since May. This growth is driven by enterprise projects like FIFA’s NFT platform and Visa’s stablecoin integration.

Conclusion

AVAX’s recent price drop is mainly due to technical selling and cautious market sentiment. Still, strong blockchain usage and ongoing institutional interest suggest this weakness might be temporary.

Key point to watch: Can AVAX maintain support at $16 with daily trading volume above $400 million to show buyers are stepping in? Or will delays in ETF approval prolong the downturn? Keep an eye on the $16 to $17.30 range for potential breakout moves.

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What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche is currently balancing between growing interest from big institutions and challenges affecting the overall crypto market.

1. Institutional Real-World Asset (RWA) Adoption – Handling 40-50 million daily transactions shows it’s scaling up for enterprise use (positive sign)
2. Key Price Support at $16 – This price level has been tested multiple times since March 2025; falling below it could lead to a 30% drop (negative sign)
3. Upcoming Nasdaq Listing – A planned SPAC merger in early 2026 aims to buy $1 billion worth of AVAX tokens, which could boost demand (positive sign)

In-Depth Analysis

1. Growth in Real-World Assets vs. Broader Market Risks (Mixed Outlook)

Avalanche is processing 40-50 million transactions daily as of November 6, 2025. This growth is largely due to tokenized assets like VanEck’s VBILL Treasury fund and Visa’s stablecoin integration. However, concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 caused the overall crypto market to drop 21% in one month, putting pressure on AVAX’s price.

What this means: If institutions continue to use Avalanche as a “digital treasury” for real-world assets, AVAX could become less affected by general market downturns. But if the price falls below the $16 support level—which has been tested more than five times since March—it could trigger a sell-off pushing the price down to around $8.72, based on Fibonacci retracement levels (Ali Martinez).

2. Network Upgrades and Nasdaq SPAC Deal (Positive Outlook)

Recent upgrades called Octane and Etta have cut transaction fees by 96% since 2025, making Avalanche more affordable to use. Meanwhile, Avalanche Treasury Corp is planning a $675 million SPAC merger aiming for a Nasdaq listing in the first quarter of 2026, with a goal to purchase $1 billion worth of AVAX tokens (Bitcoinist).

What this means: If successful, this public market debut could attract traditional investors, similar to Coinbase’s 2021 listing. However, the SPAC is currently trading at a 0.77x net asset value discount, indicating some caution from institutional investors until the deal is finalized in 2026.

3. Mixed Signals from On-Chain Activity

On November 6, 2025, the number of daily active Avalanche addresses surged by 350%, showing increased user activity. However, open interest in derivatives dropped by 27.7% over the past month. Retail investors (those holding between 10 and 100 AVAX) have increased their holdings by 12.9% in 30 days, while large holders (“whales”) are withdrawing tokens (AMBCrypto).

What this means: Retail investor optimism might support short-term price gains, but reduced participation from whales—who usually account for about 60% of trading volume—could limit upside potential. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 30.22, suggesting the asset is oversold and might bounce back if Bitcoin stabilizes.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s future depends on whether institutional investments linked to the Nasdaq listing can counteract the negative sentiment affecting the crypto market. The $16 price level is crucial—closing below it on a weekly basis could trigger panic selling, while holding above it might lead to a price increase toward $22.23 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).

Key question: Will Avalanche maintain its daily transaction volume of 50 million through the first quarter of 2026, proving its strength as an “enterprise chain” competing with Ethereum and Solana?

What are people saying about AVAX?

The Avalanche (AVAX) community is divided between optimism for a price breakout and concerns about downward pressure, with $25 acting as a key level to watch. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Bullish technical setups suggest AVAX could rise to $25–$50 if it breaks resistance.
2. Bearish momentum warns of further drops if AVAX falls below $24.
3. Growing institutional interest fueled by ETF filings and a partnership with Visa.

Deep Dive

1. @ManLyNFT: $27 Breakout Could Lead to $40–$46 🔺bullish

"Avalanche is heating up, trading just below $27 resistance. Bitwise has filed for an AVAX ETF, and real-world asset (RWA) volumes are up 58%. Are you still not bullish?"
– @ManLyNFT (97.2K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-06 15:40 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for AVAX because ETF filings and increased activity in real-world assets show growing institutional support. If AVAX breaks above the $27 resistance, demand could increase significantly.

2. CoinMarketCap Community: Warning of Drop Below $24.40 ⚠️bearish

"AVAX has fallen below a key support level at $23.50. A clear breakdown could push the price down to $22.20. Sellers are currently in control."
– CMC Technical Analyst (2025-07-25 01:01 UTC · 8.4K views)
View analysis
What this means: This is a warning sign. If AVAX stays below the $23–$24 range, it could trigger more selling, pushing the price further down toward lows seen earlier in 2025.

3. @Alvin0483021: Institutions Investing Billions 🔺bullish

"Two Digital Asset Trusts have committed to buying billions in AVAX. ETF filings are underway, and upgrades are reducing fees to almost zero."
– @Alvin0483021 (1.7K followers · 37.4K impressions · 2025-10-31 01:40 UTC)
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What this means: This is a strong positive indicator. Large institutional investments and improvements in the network’s infrastructure make AVAX more attractive for business use. However, the exact timing of these effects is still uncertain.

Conclusion

The outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is mixed. On one hand, institutional interest and growth in real-world asset use suggest potential for long-term gains. On the other hand, technical indicators show bearish momentum that could push prices lower if key support levels don’t hold. The $24–$25 price range is critical this week—holding above $25 could spark renewed optimism and a potential upward trend for this altcoin.

What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is gaining momentum thanks to growing interest from big institutions and increased activity on its network. Here’s what’s driving $AVAX:

1. Daily Active Addresses Jump 350% (Nov 6, 2025) – Over 24 million wallets are now active, showing strong user engagement.
2. 40-50 Million Daily Transactions Reached (Nov 6, 2025) – The Octane upgrade boosts transaction capacity to enterprise levels.
3. $16 Price Support Holds Despite Market Downturn (Nov 6, 2025) – Technical signals suggest buyers are stepping in around this key price point.

Deep Dive

1. Daily Active Addresses Jump 350% (Nov 6, 2025)

What happened:
Avalanche’s daily active wallets surged from about 5.5 million to over 24 million in just one day, according to Cointelegraph. This spike coincides with Visa starting to accept stablecoin payments on Avalanche and a $675 million deal to list AVAX on Nasdaq in early 2026.

Why it matters:
More active wallets usually mean more people are using the network, which often leads to price increases. For example, in Q2 2025, a popular game called MapleStory Universe caused transactions to jump 225%, boosting AVAX’s value. Continued growth like this could attract more developers and strengthen Avalanche’s role in decentralized finance (DeFi) and institutional projects.
(Cointelegraph)

2. 40-50 Million Daily Transactions Reached (Nov 6, 2025)

What happened:
Avalanche now handles 40 to 50 million transactions daily, up from about 12 million in May 2025. This increase is thanks to the Octane upgrade, which cut transaction fees by 98%, and partnerships with big firms like BlackRock and J.P. Morgan to tokenize real-world assets (RWA).

Why it matters:
This shows Avalanche’s technology can handle a lot of activity, which is a good sign for the future. However, despite more usage, AVAX’s price has dropped 32% this year. Still, investments like VanEck’s $100 million fund suggest that the market might recognize Avalanche’s value later on.
(Yahoo Finance)

3. $16 Price Support Holds Despite Market Downturn (Nov 6, 2025)

What happened:
Analyst Ali Martinez points out that AVAX has stayed above $16 since March 2025, with recent tests of this level attracting buyers. The price is currently around $16.19, down 42% over the past month, while overall crypto market fear remains high.

Why it matters:
Holding this support level is a cautiously positive sign. In the past, when AVAX built a strong base around $12-$14 in 2023, it led to price rallies. However, some technical indicators like RSI show no signs of being oversold, and trading activity in derivatives is low, indicating limited speculative interest right now.
(CoinMarketCap)

Conclusion

Avalanche is navigating a tough market environment but shows strong growth on its network and growing support from institutions. While technical signs point to buyers accumulating AVAX, the gap between network activity and price suggests some market skepticism remains. Will the rising transaction numbers lead to higher demand for AVAX, or will delays in ETFs and Bitcoin’s dominance keep prices sideways?

What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche is making significant progress with these key milestones:

1. Granite Mainnet Launch (Q1 2026) – Introducing faster block times and biometric wallet features after successful testing on the Fuji testnet.
2. Subnet Expansion for Enterprises (2026) – Offering customizable blockchain networks for businesses through Evergreen Subnets.
3. $1B Treasury Initiative Completion (Q4 2025) – Securing institutional investments to increase AVAX holdings.
4. Interoperability Upgrades (2026) – Improving connections with other blockchains and enhancing decentralized identity tools.

Deep Dive

1. Granite Mainnet Launch (Q1 2026)

Overview: The Granite upgrade, successfully tested on Fuji in October 2025 (source), brings dynamic block times, biometric wallet integration, and lower fees for interchain messaging. These changes aim to make the network faster and more cost-effective, especially for applications like gaming and real-world assets (RWAs).
What this means: This is positive for AVAX because quicker transaction finality and reduced fees can attract more developers and users, increasing the network’s usefulness. However, there is a risk of delays in launching the mainnet.

2. Subnet Expansion for Enterprises (2026)

Overview: Avalanche’s Evergreen Subnets let businesses create their own customizable and compliant blockchain networks. Notable partnerships include Toyota’s Mobility Open Network (MON) and WeBlock’s real-world asset tokenization project in South Korea.
What this means: This development is somewhat positive. While subnets add diversity to Avalanche’s ecosystem, their success depends on onboarding large companies and managing potential issues like subnet fragmentation.

3. $1B Treasury Initiative Completion (Q4 2025)

Overview: The Avalanche Foundation plans to close two $500 million deals with Hivemind Capital and Dragonfly Capital to establish U.S.-based treasury funds that will accumulate AVAX tokens (Cointribune, September 2025).
What this means: This is a positive move if completed, as it could reduce the number of AVAX tokens in circulation and increase demand from institutional investors. Still, regulatory challenges could affect progress.

4. Interoperability Upgrades (2026)

Overview: Planned improvements include better cross-chain bridges connecting Avalanche with networks like Ethereum and Polygon, along with enhanced decentralized identity solutions. These upgrades aim to create a smoother experience for users and unify liquidity across different blockchains.
What this means: This is favorable for AVAX if successful, as it could become a central hub for multi-chain activity. However, competition from other networks like Polkadot remains a challenge.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s roadmap combines technical improvements (Granite), business adoption (subnets), and strategic financial moves ($1B treasury) to strengthen its position in gaming, real-world assets, and decentralized finance (DeFi). While these efforts could support long-term growth, execution risks and market conditions will play a major role. A key question remains: how will Avalanche’s subnet approach compete with Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions in attracting developers?

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What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche has rolled out important upgrades that make using the network cheaper, improve how validators earn rewards, and boost privacy features for businesses.

1. Octane Upgrade (July 2025) – Cut fees on the C-Chain by 98% using smart, dynamic pricing.
2. eERC Standard Launch (July 2025) – Launched encrypted ERC-20 tokens designed for enterprise privacy.
3. Observability Enhancements (Sept 2025) – Made it easier to monitor subnets and perform security checks.

Deep Dive

1. Octane Upgrade (July 2025)

What happened: Avalanche updated its network with a hard fork that lowered transaction fees and changed how validators stake tokens, making it cheaper and more scalable.

Key changes included:

• ACP-125: Dropped the minimum fee on the C-Chain from 25 nAVAX to just 0.1 nAVAX (about one cent).
• ACP-176: Introduced fees that adjust based on network traffic to prevent overload and spam.
• ACP-77: Switched from a fixed 2,000 AVAX stake for validators to a pay-as-you-go system, reducing subnet setup costs by roughly 83%.

Why it matters: Lower fees and flexible staking make Avalanche more attractive to developers and businesses, likely increasing network activity and demand for AVAX. (Source)

2. eERC Standard (July 2025)

What happened: Avalanche introduced the eERC standard through AvaCloud, allowing companies to create encrypted ERC-20 tokens that keep transaction details private but auditable when needed.

This means businesses can selectively share transaction info with regulators while keeping data secure on the blockchain. It’s fully compatible with Ethereum-based apps, so developers don’t need to rebuild their projects.

Why it matters: This upgrade positions Avalanche well for regulated industries like real-world assets (RWAs). Its success depends on how quickly enterprises adopt these privacy features.

3. Observability Enhancements (Sept 2025)

What happened: Avalanche improved tools for monitoring subnet performance and security with ready-made dashboards and audit-focused features.

Developers can now easily track subnet health metrics like uptime and cross-chain communication. Auditors can focus on critical security risks without reviewing the entire codebase, thanks to subnet isolation and detailed on-chain logs.

Why it matters: These improvements reduce operational challenges, encouraging more institutions to build on Avalanche subnets. (Source)

Conclusion

Avalanche’s latest upgrades focus on cutting costs, enhancing privacy, and preparing the network for enterprise use. These changes could drive more businesses and developers to adopt Avalanche subnets, helping the platform compete in the growing market for real-world asset tokenization and institutional blockchain solutions.