What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche’s price is currently caught between positive factors that could push it up and risks that might pull it down.

1. Upcoming Token Unlocks – On November 13, 2025, 1.67 million AVAX tokens (worth about $30 million) will become available, which could lead to short-term selling pressure.
2. ETF Developments – Grayscale and Bitwise have filed for spot AVAX ETFs, with the SEC expected to decide by July 2025. Approval could bring more institutional investors.
3. Technical Levels – Avalanche is trading around $17.93, testing important support levels. If it falls below $16, it could drop as much as 18%.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks & Network Upgrades (Mixed to Bearish Impact)

Avalanche will unlock 1.67 million AVAX tokens on November 13, 2025, which is about 0.39% of the total supply. In the past, a larger unlock of 9.54 million AVAX in July 2025 caused the price to drop 12% within two weeks. Around the same time, a network upgrade on July 19, 2025, aimed at speeding up transactions, led to temporary pauses on some exchanges.

What this means:
While network upgrades improve Avalanche’s performance, unlocking more tokens increases the number of coins available to sell, which can put downward pressure on the price unless demand rises to match. Keep an eye on how many tokens flow into exchanges after the unlock (source).

2. Institutional Adoption & ETF Race (Bullish Impact)

In August 2025, Grayscale and Bitwise filed for AVAX ETFs, similar to how Bitcoin’s ETFs were introduced before approval. Additionally, AVAX One, a company listed on Nasdaq, plans to raise $550 million to buy and stake AVAX tokens, potentially removing about 2.5% of the circulating supply from the market.

What this means:
If ETFs are approved, it would make AVAX a more accepted and regulated investment, encouraging big investors to buy in. Corporate buying strategies like this can reduce the available supply, potentially pushing prices higher. VanEck’s $100 million fund supporting Avalanche’s ecosystem also adds positive momentum (source).

3. Technical & Sentiment Signals (Mixed Impact)

Avalanche is currently trading below its major moving averages, with the 200-day average at $22.95, indicating some bearish pressure. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 40.66, suggesting the coin might be oversold and due for a bounce. On the derivatives market, there are more short positions ($4.15 million) than long positions ($1.07 million), showing bearish sentiment. Still, the altcoin season index has risen 54% in the past week to 34/100, hinting at a possible shift toward alternative cryptocurrencies like AVAX.

What this means:
If Avalanche’s price can close above $18.54 (a key Fibonacci level), it might trigger a short squeeze pushing the price toward $20. But if it falls below $16, the price could drop further to around $14. Also, watch Bitcoin’s market dominance (currently 59.29%)—if it decreases, altcoins like Avalanche often benefit.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s short-term outlook depends on how the market balances the increased supply from token unlocks against growing demand from institutional interest and corporate buying. The price range between $16 and $18 is critical. The big question is whether ETF approvals will come before the November unlock or if broader economic challenges will delay a positive shift in crypto markets. Stay updated on SEC decisions and changes in exchange reserves to gauge the next moves.

What are people saying about AVAX?

Talk around Avalanche (AVAX) is swinging between hopes for a breakout and warnings of a downturn, while big investors quietly keep buying. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Traders see $25 as a key resistance level that could make or break the next move
2. Short sellers are focusing on $15 as momentum weakens
3. Institutional moves into real-world assets (RWA) are driving long-term bullish bets

Deep Dive

1. @CryptoELlTES: AVAX Approaching Important Trendline (Bullish)

"Is AVAX ready for a major move? Multiple higher lows hint at a historic rally if it breaks above $25 – target $150"
– @CryptoELlTES (254K followers · 143K+ impressions · 2025-09-29 09:19 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for AVAX. If the price can stay above $25, it could confirm a long-term breakout pattern that might lead to much higher prices. However, the $150 target is a very long-term and speculative outlook.

2. @Alvin0483021: Institutions Buying at Bear Market Lows (Neutral)

"Is AVAX undervalued at bear market lows? Institutions are buying through AVAX One ($550M fund) and BlackRock partnerships"
– @Alvin0483021 (1.6K followers · 3.7K+ impressions · 2025-10-31 01:40 UTC)
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What this means: This is a neutral view. While big investors accumulating AVAX shows confidence, the price is still about 75% below its all-time high, and broader economic risks remain.

3. @gemxbt_agent: Bearish Momentum Growing (Bearish)

"AVAX is forming a downward channel – if it falls below $17, it could drop 27% to $15"
– @gemxbt_agent (46.5K followers · 184K+ impressions · 2025-08-31 03:01 UTC)
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What this means: The outlook is negative here. Trading interest is dropping (-24.68% monthly), and funding rates are turning negative compared to Bitcoin, signaling increasing selling pressure.

Conclusion

The outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is mixed. On one hand, technical charts show bearish signs, but on the other, institutional interest in real-world asset projects like FIFA subnets and $240 billion in real estate tokenization points to long-term growth. While everyday traders focus on the $25 resistance level, big investors are quietly buying through regulated funds like VanEck’s PurposeBuilt Fund. Keep an eye on the November 13 release of 1.67 million AVAX tokens (worth about $30 million at current prices). If the market absorbs this smoothly, it could show strong demand; if not, it might confirm the bearish signals.

What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is managing upcoming token releases and system upgrades while growing its presence with big institutions. Here are the key updates:

1. Major Token Unlock (November 13, 2025) – 1.67 million AVAX tokens (worth about $30 million) will enter the market, which could lead to short-term selling pressure.
2. Granite Upgrade (November 19, 2025) – This update aims to lower transaction fees and speed up processing times to improve the network’s performance.
3. Visa Partnership (July 31, 2025) – Avalanche has joined Visa’s blockchain network, allowing stablecoin payments like USDC, PYUSD, and EURC.

In-Depth Look

1. Major Token Unlock (November 13, 2025)

What’s happening:
Avalanche will release 1.67 million AVAX tokens into circulation, valued around $30 million at the current price of $17.93 per token. When new tokens enter the market, it increases the supply, which can lower the token’s price if demand doesn’t keep up.

Why it matters:
This event could put downward pressure on AVAX prices in the short term, especially since the market has already dropped 37% over the past two months. However, token unlocks are a normal part of Avalanche’s plan to reward participants in its ecosystem. Long-term investors may absorb much of this new supply. (CoinMarketCap)

2. Granite Upgrade (November 19, 2025)

What’s happening:
The Granite Upgrade will introduce faster and more flexible block times, integrate biometric wallet features for added security, and reduce transaction fees by about 43% through improved gas fee management.

Why it matters:
Lower fees and quicker transaction finality make Avalanche more attractive to developers and businesses. This upgrade builds on recent improvements that doubled block production speed to 621 transactions per second, showing strong technical progress. (Avalanche🔺)

3. Visa Partnership (July 31, 2025)

What’s happening:
Visa has added Avalanche to its blockchain settlement network, enabling transactions with stablecoins like USDC, PYUSD, and EURC. This move supports Avalanche’s focus on institutional users, including BlackRock’s $500 million real-world asset expansion on the platform.

Why it matters:
This partnership is a positive sign for Avalanche’s long-term growth, confirming its appeal to large financial players. While it may take time to see significant adoption, Avalanche’s total value locked (TVL) has already doubled to $2.1 billion since April 2025, reflecting growing institutional interest. (Avalanche🔺)

Conclusion

Avalanche faces some short-term challenges from the token unlock but benefits from promising upgrades and strong institutional support like Visa’s integration. The key question is whether the efficiency improvements from the Granite Upgrade can offset market pressures. Keep an eye on trading activity after the unlock and institutional investments following the upgrade.

What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche is making significant progress with these key milestones:

1. Granite Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025) – Lower transaction costs and faster, more flexible processing times.
2. Helika Gaming Accelerator Demo Day (November 2025) – Showcasing promising Web3 games built on Avalanche.
3. FIFA Subnet Integration (2026) – Bringing millions of sports fans onboard through NFTs and digital tickets.
4. AVAX One Nasdaq Listing (Q1 2026) – A $550 million fund to buy and stake AVAX tokens.
5. Avalanche Foundation Treasury Expansion (2026) – A $1 billion initiative to boost enterprise adoption of Avalanche.

Deep Dive

1. Granite Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview: After testing in October 2025, the Granite upgrade will cut transaction fees on Avalanche’s C-Chain by 43% and introduce dynamic block times, which means the network can adjust how quickly it processes transactions based on demand. It will also support biometric wallet logins and allow subnets (custom blockchains within Avalanche) to run tasks more efficiently.
What this means: Lower fees and faster transaction finality make Avalanche more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming projects, potentially increasing network use. However, delays in testing or stability issues could slow adoption.

2. Helika Gaming Accelerator Demo Day (November 2025)

Overview: In partnership with analytics firm Helika, Avalanche will present over 10 gaming projects from its accelerator program. These games use Avalanche’s subnets to create scalable in-game economies. Top teams can receive up to $125,000 in funding (Cryptobriefing).
What this means: This event could boost user growth if the games succeed, but the long-term impact depends on how well players stay engaged after launch.

3. FIFA Subnet Integration (2026)

Overview: FIFA plans to move its NFT collections and ticketing systems onto a custom Avalanche subnet by 2026. This subnet will handle millions of transactions quickly and comply with local regulations, making it easier for global sports fans to participate.
What this means: This partnership adds strong real-world use cases to Avalanche, increasing its credibility. However, complex partnerships like this can face timeline changes.

4. AVAX One Nasdaq Listing (Q1 2026)

Overview: AgriFORCE is rebranding as AVAX One and aims to raise $550 million to buy AVAX tokens. The company will stake these tokens to earn rewards and use strategies to increase returns. Being listed on Nasdaq could attract traditional investors (Yahoo Finance).
What this means: If successful, this could reduce the number of AVAX tokens available on the market and bring more institutional interest, potentially stabilizing prices. Regulatory challenges remain a risk.

5. Avalanche Foundation Treasury Expansion (2026)

Overview: The Avalanche Foundation plans to invest $1 billion through two U.S.-based treasury firms buying discounted AVAX tokens to support ecosystem growth. A second special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) vehicle is expected in early 2026 (Cointribune).
What this means: This signals strong institutional confidence but depends on healthy market conditions and sustainable token economics for long-term success.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s roadmap focuses on improving scalability (Granite), expanding gaming (Helika and FIFA), and attracting institutional capital (AVAX One and Treasury expansion). While these upgrades and partnerships could drive wider adoption, overall market trends and competition will also play major roles. The big question remains: will Avalanche’s subnets establish it as the leading blockchain for enterprise Web3 applications?

What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche’s recent updates focus on making the network faster, more affordable, and more private.

1. Granite Upgrade (October 2025) – Made cross-chain communication cheaper and introduced flexible block times.
2. Octane Upgrade (July 2025) – Cut fees by 96% and introduced a pay-as-you-go system for validators.
3. eERC Standard (July 2025) – Launched encrypted ERC-20 tokens that allow selective auditing.

Deep Dive

1. Granite Upgrade (October 2025)

Overview: Released on Avalanche’s Fuji testnet, this upgrade improved how different parts of the network communicate and how blocks are created.
Key changes included lowering the cost of Interchain Messaging (ICM) by 40% and adding dynamic block times that adjust based on how busy the network is. It also added biometric wallet support for better security.
What this means: This is good news for Avalanche because cheaper cross-chain messaging makes it easier for developers to build on different parts of the network, and flexible block times help the network handle busy periods more smoothly. (Source)

2. Octane Upgrade (July 2025)

Overview: A major update that changed fee structures and how validators stake their tokens.
It introduced ACP-77 (dynamic validator staking fees), ACP-125 (lowered base fees to 0.1 nAVAX), and ACP-176 (gas limits that adjust with network congestion). After this upgrade, transaction fees on the C-Chain dropped from about $0.25 to just $0.01.
What this means: This is positive for Avalanche because lower fees make it more attractive for decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT projects. The new staking system also lowers the barrier for validators, helping to make the network more decentralized. (Source)

3. eERC Standard (July 2025)

Overview: AvaCloud introduced an encrypted ERC-20 token standard that lets token creators keep transaction details private while still allowing regulators to audit when necessary.
Built on the C-Chain, eERC uses zero-knowledge proofs to balance privacy with compliance. Early users include platforms tokenizing sensitive financial assets.
What this means: This is a neutral development for Avalanche. While privacy features can attract institutional users, widespread adoption depends on clear regulations. Still, it positions AVAX as a leader in compliant tokenization.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s latest upgrades focus on improving scalability (Granite), lowering costs (Octane), and preparing for institutional use (eERC). These changes support Avalanche’s goal of expanding enterprise blockchain use and real-world asset tokenization. The big question is whether lower fees and privacy features will drive a new wave of subnet growth.

Why did the price of AVAX go up?

Avalanche (AVAX) increased by 5.60% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall cryptocurrency market, which grew by 3.96%. This rise was driven by positive technical signals, anticipation of a major token release, and renewed interest from institutions in Avalanche’s real-world asset (RWA) applications.

1. Market Recovery: Bitcoin’s rise above $106,000 helped boost altcoins like AVAX.
2. Technical Signals: Indicators showed strong buying momentum.
3. Token Unlock: A $29.8 million AVAX token release scheduled for November 15 is seen as a sign of growth.
4. Institutional Interest: More companies are adopting Avalanche’s technology for real-world projects.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Overall Altcoin Market Rally (Neutral Impact)

Bitcoin’s 4.1% jump to around $106,000 and Ethereum’s 7% increase encouraged investors to put money into altcoins such as AVAX. The total cryptocurrency market value rose 3.96%, and the Altcoin Season Index went up by 6.25% to 34 out of 100. AVAX’s 5.6% gain slightly lagged behind some competitors like Solana (+6.6%) and XRP (+7%), showing it generally follows overall market trends (Coinpedia).

2. Technical Momentum (Positive Impact)

• MACD Indicator: This momentum indicator turned positive (+0.21972), suggesting a shift from a downtrend to upward momentum.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The 14-day RSI rose to 40.66 from 36 last week, moving out of the oversold zone, which often signals a buying opportunity.
• Price Movement: AVAX’s price moved above its 7-day simple moving average ($16.91) and a key pivot point ($17.50), with the next resistance level at $21.95, based on Fibonacci retracement.

3. Token Unlock Event (Mixed Impact)

Avalanche plans to unlock 1.67 million AVAX tokens (about 0.33% of total supply, worth roughly $29.8 million) on November 15. Token unlocks can sometimes lead to selling pressure, but this event is viewed as a milestone showing the ecosystem’s growth. Importantly, the Avalanche Foundation will receive all these tokens, which may reduce the chance of immediate selling (Yahoo Finance).

4. Growing Institutional Adoption of Real-World Assets (Positive Impact)

Avalanche’s subnet technology, which allows businesses to create customized blockchain networks, is gaining traction for projects like real estate tokenization. Partnerships with firms such as Janus Henderson (managing $250 million in tokenized assets) and FIFA’s move to Avalanche subnets highlight growing confidence in AVAX’s practical uses (Cointribune).

Conclusion

AVAX’s recent price increase is driven by a combination of technical recovery, positive market sentiment, and strategic moves toward institutional adoption. Although the upcoming token unlock could add some selling pressure, Avalanche’s focus on scalable, enterprise-level solutions helps balance out short-term risks.

What to watch: Can AVAX stay above $18.50 (currently $18.08) and push toward the next resistance at $20.64? Keep an eye on the November 15 token unlock and whether Bitcoin maintains its $106,000 level.