Why did the price of AVAX go up?

Avalanche (AVAX) increased by 6.4% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 3.64%. This recent gain fits into a positive trend over the past week (+4.2%), though AVAX is still 26% below its highest price in the last 30 days. The main factors behind this movement are:

1. Regulatory Approval – The European Union gave the green light to Securitize’s tokenized trading platform on Avalanche, a positive sign for AVAX.
2. Institutional Buying – AVAX One has purchased $110 million worth of AVAX tokens since November 5, tightening supply.
3. Technical Signals – The price has moved above important averages, and technical indicators suggest a bullish reversal, though some risks remain.

Deep Dive

1. Regulatory Approval (Positive Impact)

Summary:
On November 26, Spain’s financial regulator, CNMV, approved Securitize to run a regulated tokenized securities platform on Avalanche under the EU’s DLT Pilot Regime. This platform will connect with Securitize’s U.S. system, allowing cross-border trading of stocks and bonds starting in early 2026 (Crypto.News).

Why it matters:

• This positions Avalanche as a blockchain that meets regulatory standards, making it attractive for real-world assets (RWAs) and competing directly with Ethereum.
• It confirms AVAX’s technology is suitable for fast, regulated markets, drawing interest from big players like BlackRock, which added $500 million in tokenized assets to Avalanche in October.

What to watch:
Progress updates and trading volumes when the EU-U.S. tokenized asset platform launches in early 2026.

2. Institutional Buying (Positive Impact)

Summary:
AVAX One, a Nasdaq-listed company, bought 9.38 million AVAX tokens (about $110 million) between November 5 and 23, bringing its total holdings to 13.8 million tokens. The company also started a stock buyback program to align shareholder interests with AVAX’s growth (CoinJournal).

Why it matters:

• This reduces the number of AVAX tokens available on the market, which can push prices higher due to limited supply.
• It shows strong confidence from institutional investors in Avalanche’s potential in tokenized finance, similar to how MicroStrategy has invested heavily in Bitcoin.

3. Technical Signals (Mixed Impact)

Summary:
AVAX’s price moved above its 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $13.80 and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $14.21. The MACD indicator, which helps identify momentum changes, turned positive (+0.196). However, the price faces resistance near $17.54, a key Fibonacci retracement level.

Why it matters:

• Short-term momentum looks positive, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.5 suggests there’s limited room before the asset becomes overbought.
• If AVAX closes above $14.60, it could aim for $16.62, but if it fails, the price might drop back to around $12.72.

Conclusion

AVAX’s recent price increase is driven by favorable regulatory news, strong institutional buying, and positive technical signals. However, broader market risks remain, including Bitcoin’s dominant position (58.5%) and a high level of market fear (CMC Fear & Greed Index at 18). The key question is whether AVAX can stay above $14.60 to keep this rebound going or if market pressures will lead to profit-taking.

What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche’s price is balancing between growing interest from big investors and ongoing doubts in the market.

1. Regulated Market Infrastructure – An EU-approved platform for tokenized securities is set to launch on Avalanche in 2026.
2. Institutional Buying – AVAX One holds 13.8 million AVAX tokens, showing strong confidence in the project.
3. Technical Challenges – Despite a recent 5% price bounce, bearish signals dominate the charts.

In-Depth Look

1. Regulated Market Infrastructure (Positive Outlook)

What’s Happening:
Securitize, a company specializing in digital securities, received approval from the European Union to run a regulated trading and settlement platform on Avalanche. The first tokenized securities are expected to go live in early 2026 (Bitcoin.com). This makes Avalanche a blockchain that meets strict compliance standards, which is attractive to institutional investors, especially compared to competitors like Ethereum.

Why It Matters:
Tokenizing real-world assets (like stocks or bonds) on Avalanche could increase demand for AVAX tokens, as users will need AVAX to pay transaction fees and participate in staking. Industry experts estimate that this EU-U.S. connection could bring over $500 million in institutional investments by 2026.

2. Institutional Treasury Moves (Mixed Signals)

What’s Happening:
AVAX One, a company listed on Nasdaq, bought 9.4 million AVAX tokens (worth about $110 million) in November 2025, bringing its total holdings to 13.8 million AVAX (CoinJournal). Some critics worry that such large holdings by one entity could lead to centralization risks.

Why It Matters:
This large purchase reduces the number of AVAX tokens available on the market (currently 428 million circulating). However, if AVAX One decides to sell off its tokens, it could negatively impact the price. Additionally, the company’s $40 million stock buyback plan may tie AVAX’s price movements more closely to its stock performance.

3. Technical and Competitive Challenges (Negative Outlook)

What’s Happening:
Avalanche’s price charts show a “death cross,” where the short-term 50-day moving average falls below the long-term 200-day moving average—a bearish signal. The price is also struggling to break above the $15 resistance level. Meanwhile, competitors like Solana and Ethereum Layer 2 solutions are gaining attention from developers (Yahoo Finance).

Why It Matters:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.31, indicating the token is not oversold and may not see an immediate price rebound. Technical analysis suggests the next support level is around $12.72. Without new developments or partnerships, Avalanche risks losing momentum despite its strong technology.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s success in 2026 depends on turning institutional interest—like Securitize’s upcoming EU platform—into real on-chain activity while overcoming technical hurdles. The $14 to $15 price range is a key battleground: closing above $16 on a weekly basis could spark a rally toward $20, but falling below may lead to retesting last year’s lows. The big question remains: Will Avalanche’s subnet adoption outpace scalability improvements from competing blockchains? Keep an eye on daily transaction volumes (currently about 1.2 million) and stablecoin inflows for clues.

What are people saying about AVAX?

The Avalanche (AVAX) community is cautiously optimistic but also skeptical about the technology. Here’s the latest:

1. Steady progress in developing subnets and adopting real-world assets (RWA), though the ecosystem feels a bit fragmented
2. The $25 price level is a key point—breaking above it could spark a strong upward trend
3. Institutional interest is growing, with over $500 million being invested by large treasury funds

Deep Dive

1. @haiwed3: Slow and steady infrastructure growth amid uncertain markets mixed

"AVAX is trading around $14–15… institutional projects are quietly moving forward. This isn’t hype-driven—progress is steady."
– @haiwed3 (2,056 followers · 15.4K likes · 2025-11-26 10:38 UTC)
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What this means: This is a neutral sign for AVAX. While the price hasn’t moved much, ongoing development and growing subnet use could support demand over time.

2. @im_BrokeDoomer: Large investors accumulating AVAX bullish

"AgriForce is becoming AVAX One, raising $500 million to buy AVAX… the price trend looks ready to move higher."
– @im_BrokeDoomer (188K followers · 265K likes · 2025-09-23 05:55 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign if big treasury investments happen, but there’s risk since AVAX’s price dropped 40% over the last 90 days.

3. @ManLyNFT: Technical analysis points to a potential breakout bullish

"AVAX could reach $40–$46 if it breaks above $27… weekly trading volume is increasing near key resistance."
– @ManLyNFT (96.2K followers · 198K likes · 2025-09-06 15:40 UTC)
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What this means: Technically, this is bullish, but it requires a 67% price increase from the current $14.95. This is challenging given Bitcoin’s market dominance at 58.26%.

Conclusion

Overall, opinions on AVAX are mixed. Institutional adoption—like BlackRock’s moves into real-world assets and VanEck’s fund—shows promise, but technical challenges and a general decline in altcoin liquidity are concerns. Partnerships involving subnets and tokenization (such as with FIFA and SkyBridge) indicate a solid foundation. However, the $24.60–25.60 price range is crucial: breaking above it could confirm a bullish trend, while failing to do so might extend the recent 47% drop over the past 60 days. Keep an eye on the Grayscale AVAX ETF decision timeline for clues about institutional interest.

What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is making strides in Europe with new regulatory approvals but is also facing some challenges. Here’s the latest update:

1. EU Approves Tokenized Trading on Avalanche (Nov 26, 2025) – Securitize becomes the first platform in the EU to offer regulated tokenized securities trading on Avalanche.
2. AVAX One Increases Holdings to 13.8 Million Tokens (Nov 25, 2025) – A Nasdaq-listed company boosts its investment in Avalanche significantly.
3. Investor Raises Concerns About Avalanche’s Competition (Nov 26, 2025) – A crypto trader plans to reduce AVAX holdings due to competition from other blockchain platforms.

Deep Dive

1. EU Approves Tokenized Trading on Avalanche (Nov 26, 2025)

What happened: Securitize received approval from European regulators to run a platform for trading and settling tokenized securities on Avalanche. This is the first regulated market infrastructure that connects the U.S. and Europe, combining trading and custody services into one system. Avalanche’s technology allows transactions to finalize in less than a second. The first tokenized assets are expected to launch in early 2026.
Why it matters: This is a big win for Avalanche (AVAX) because it shows growing trust from regulators and institutions. It could lead to billions of dollars in assets being tokenized on Avalanche, giving it an edge over competitors like Ethereum. (Bitcoin.com)

2. AVAX One Increases Holdings to 13.8 Million Tokens (Nov 25, 2025)

What happened: AVAX One, a company listed on Nasdaq, bought 9.38 million AVAX tokens (worth about $110 million) in November 2025. This brings their total AVAX holdings to 13.8 million tokens. The company praised Avalanche’s strong infrastructure and plans to keep buying more tokens while also buying back its own stock.
Why it matters: This shows strong confidence in Avalanche’s future and aligns with the company’s growth plans. However, the purchase happened during a 12% drop in AVAX’s price that week, suggesting they took advantage of lower prices to buy more. (CoinJournal)

3. Investor Raises Concerns About Avalanche’s Competition (Nov 26, 2025)

What happened: Crypto investor Ankush Chowdhury said he plans to reduce his AVAX holdings because of strong competition from other blockchains like Solana, known for its speed, and Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions. He compared the current blockchain market to the dot-com bubble, where big players might push out smaller ones.
Why it matters: This points to potential risks for Avalanche if it can’t stand out in a crowded market. While this is one investor’s opinion, it reflects wider concerns about Avalanche’s ability to keep developers and users engaged compared to larger platforms. (Yahoo Finance)

Conclusion

Avalanche’s recent approval in the EU and growing institutional interest show it’s gaining traction in real-world applications. However, competition among Layer 1 blockchains remains fierce. The key question is whether Avalanche can turn these regulatory wins into lasting growth or if market pressures and rivals will limit its potential.

What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche’s roadmap highlights key improvements in technology, expanding customizable blockchains, and boosting adoption by big institutions.

1. Granite Upgrade (November 2025) – Faster network speeds and added biometric security features.
2. Subnet Scalability (Q1 2026) – Allowing businesses and gaming companies to create their own tailored blockchains.
3. Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization Push (2026) – Focusing on tokenizing $240 billion worth of real estate and sports collectibles.

Deep Dive

1. Granite Upgrade (November 2025)

Overview:
Released on November 19, 2025, the Granite upgrade brought faster transaction times aiming for confirmations in less than a second. It also introduced biometric login options like FaceID and TouchID, plus improvements to keep validators more stable and reduce errors when moving assets across different blockchains.

What this means:
This upgrade is positive for Avalanche (AVAX) because quicker transactions and stronger security features make it more attractive to large companies and institutional users. However, there’s a risk that if validators don’t adopt these changes quickly, the benefits could be delayed.

2. Subnet Scalability (Q1 2026)

Overview:
Avalanche plans to grow its subnet system, which lets projects build their own blockchains with custom rules. This includes partnerships like FIFA’s sports NFT subnet and enterprise-focused “Evergreen” subnets designed for businesses.

What this means:
This development is somewhat positive. Expanding subnets allows for more diverse uses but could also spread out liquidity, meaning assets might be less concentrated. If successful, it could increase demand for AVAX as the main currency used to settle transactions.

3. RWA Tokenization Push (2026)

Overview:
Avalanche aims to convert $240 billion in real-world assets into digital tokens. This includes a partnership with Bergen County, New Jersey, and FIFA’s digital collectibles. The VanEck Purposebuilt Fund, with $100 million, is backing projects focused on these tokenized assets.

What this means:
If Avalanche pulls this off, it could create lasting value by linking blockchain technology to real-world assets. However, regulatory challenges, especially around international laws, remain a significant obstacle.

Conclusion

Avalanche is focusing on faster speeds, more customization, and real-world applications. The Granite upgrade sets the stage for enterprise use, while expanding subnets and tokenizing real assets could position Avalanche as a key player in institutional blockchain solutions. The big question is whether these moves will help Avalanche compete with Ethereum and Solana in 2026.

What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche made major upgrades to its network in 2025, focusing on faster transactions, better security, and more options for developers.

1. Granite Upgrade (November 19, 2025) – Added adjustable block times and biometric login options for decentralized apps (dApps).
2. Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025) – Cut transaction fees by 98% and introduced new privacy-focused token features.

Deep Dive

1. Granite Upgrade (November 19, 2025)

Overview: This update changed how the network processes transactions by allowing validators (network participants who confirm transactions) to adjust block times, making confirmations faster. It also added biometric authentication (like FaceID or TouchID) for dApps, improving user experience.

Key improvements:

• ACP-204: Added support for a cryptographic method used in biometric systems, enabling users to log in without passwords.
• Dynamic blocktimes: Validators can now set confirmation times under one second, speeding up transactions.
• More stable validator groups: Reduced errors in cross-chain communication by 30% during testing.

Why it matters: Faster transaction finality and biometric logins make Avalanche more attractive for mainstream apps that need smooth user experiences. Better cross-chain communication supports Avalanche’s goal of connecting multiple blockchains. (Source)

2. Octane Upgrade (July 19, 2025)

Overview: This upgrade focused on Avalanche’s C-Chain (the smart contract platform), drastically lowering fees and adding encrypted token standards for privacy.

Key changes:

• ACP-125: Transaction fees dropped from 25 nano AVAX (nAVAX) to just 0.1 nAVAX.
• eERC standard: Introduced privacy-friendly tokens that still allow for auditing and compliance.
• Parallel execution groundwork: Prepared the network for processing transactions asynchronously (at the same time), expected in late 2025.

Why it matters: Lower fees encourage more decentralized finance (DeFi) activity, while encrypted tokens add privacy but also some regulatory complexity. The move toward asynchronous transaction processing will help Avalanche handle large-scale, real-world asset workloads. (Source)

Conclusion

Avalanche’s 2025 upgrades aim to attract businesses by making fees predictable, improving user experience with biometrics, and supporting private assets. While the technology is advancing well, market conditions and how quickly new subnetworks are adopted will influence success. Could encrypted tokens and asynchronous transaction processing spark a new wave of institutional use?