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Why did the price of AVAX go up?

Avalanche (AVAX) increased by 1.58% in the past 24 hours, slightly below the overall cryptocurrency market's 1.59% gain. Here’s a quick breakdown of the main factors behind this movement:

  1. Market-wide rally
    The total crypto market value rose by 1.59%, with trading volume jumping 124%, helping most cryptocurrencies including AVAX.

  2. Real-world adoption boost
    Maalexi launched an agricultural asset exchange on Avalanche, showing growing interest from big institutions.

  3. Positive technical signals
    Indicators like the MACD and RSI suggest more buyers are entering the market.

1. Market Rally (Neutral Factor)

Overview:
The total value of all cryptocurrencies increased by 1.59% (about $49 billion) in one day. Trading activity surged by 128.2% to $213.6 billion. This broad market upswing lifted most major coins, including AVAX, which moved in line with the market.

What this means:
AVAX benefited as investors showed more interest in crypto overall. The big jump in trading volume points to real buying activity, not just short-term speculation. This helps mid-sized coins like AVAX, but it doesn’t fully explain why AVAX slightly underperformed the market.

2. Agricultural Partnership (Positive Factor)

Overview:
On January 11, Maalexi announced the launch of MAATEX, the world’s first agricultural asset token exchange, built on Avalanche. Based in Abu Dhabi, this platform will use Avalanche’s technology to turn agricultural commodities into digital tokens.

What this means:
This move highlights Avalanche’s ability to support real-world assets, which could increase the network’s usefulness and boost demand for AVAX. The global agriculture market is worth about $12 trillion, so this partnership could bring significant long-term activity. Similar partnerships, like J.P. Morgan’s earlier work with Avalanche, have previously improved market sentiment.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on MAATEX’s transaction volume and growth in tokenized assets to see if adoption is gaining real traction.

3. Technical Recovery (Positive Signal)

Overview:
AVAX’s MACD indicator turned positive (+0.044758), showing a bullish crossover. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) rose to 50.29, crossing above 50 for the first time in two weeks, which means selling pressure is easing.

What this means:
These technical signs suggest traders are accumulating AVAX, expecting a price increase. AVAX is trading above its 30-day moving average ($12.95) but still below its 7-day moving average ($13.89). The price range between $13.70 and $14.00 is an important resistance level. If AVAX breaks above $14 and holds, it could trigger short-term buying momentum.

Conclusion

AVAX’s recent gains come from overall market momentum, a strategic partnership in real-world assets, and improving technical indicators. While the price remains within a range, the combination of institutional interest and positive technical signals points to cautious optimism.

Key point to watch: Can AVAX stay above $13.50 and turn the 7-day moving average into support to confirm a bullish trend?


What could affect the price of AVAX?

Avalanche's price is currently caught between growing interest from big investors and the pressure from new tokens entering the market soon.

  1. Big Investors Getting Involved – VanEck has launched a $100 million fund to support Avalanche’s ecosystem, and FIFA has moved its NFT platform to Avalanche, boosting demand for Avalanche’s subnets and real-world asset projects.
  2. New Tokens Entering Market – About $9.57 million worth of AVAX tokens will be unlocked and available this week, which could lead to short-term selling pressure.
  3. Price Movement and Market Activity – Avalanche’s price is holding steady between $12 and $15 but faces resistance at $15.60. Large investors (whales) are accumulating AVAX, showing interest.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional & Real-World Asset Growth (Positive for Avalanche)

Avalanche is attracting attention from major players. FIFA has moved its NFT platform to Avalanche to better engage fans, and Maalexi introduced MAATEX, a platform for turning agricultural assets into digital tokens. VanEck’s $100 million fund focuses on gaming, decentralized finance (DeFi), and real-world assets (RWAs), which helps speed up the creation of new subnets on Avalanche.
Learn more about VanEck Fund and FIFA on Avalanche.
Why it matters: These developments could increase the use of AVAX tokens and encourage staking (locking tokens to support the network), especially by institutions. Over time, this real-world adoption could help maintain demand for AVAX, even when the market is down.

2. Token Unlocks Could Create Selling Pressure (Short-Term Challenge)

This week, $9.57 million worth of AVAX tokens will be unlocked and become available for trading, part of a larger $1.69 billion unlock event happening across the crypto industry. Tokens are being released gradually, about 700,000 per day, which can increase selling pressure, especially when trading volumes are low.
Read more about the $1.69B Unlocks.
Why it matters: The extra supply could limit price gains in the short term if demand doesn’t keep up. Past unlock events have caused price drops of 5-10%, so holding the $12 support level is important.

3. Market Signals Show Mixed Outlook

Avalanche’s price is currently below a key resistance level at $15.60 (the 200-day moving average), but there are signs of interest from large investors. Whales bought 200,000 AVAX tokens (worth about $6 million) last week, and transaction volume increased by 66%. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 50, indicating the market is neutral without strong buying momentum.
Check out the Whale Buys and Transaction Spike.
Why it matters: If Avalanche’s price breaks above $15.60, it could push toward $20. But if it fails, the price might drop back to $12. Whale activity suggests confidence from big players, but retail investors are not yet strongly involved.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s price in 2026 will depend on how well it handles the increased token supply from unlocks while continuing to grow institutional support. Keep an eye on the $15.60 resistance level and how VanEck’s fund is used to spot potential price moves. Also, watch how the growth of subnets (smaller networks within Avalanche) affects AVAX’s overall token economy this quarter.


What are people saying about AVAX?

Conversations around Avalanche (AVAX) show a mix of cautious optimism and price speculation. Here’s what’s trending:

  1. Analysts are targeting a price range of $15.50 to $16.50 as technical indicators turn positive.
  2. Community sentiment remains strong despite a slight recent price dip.
  3. Technical signals are mixed, with some showing bearish trends and others bullish momentum.
  4. Some experts warn of bearish pressure testing the $11.31 support level.

Deep Dive

1. @bpaynews: Bullish price target of $15.50-$16.50 by February

"Targets $15.50-$16.50 by February as Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum ... Current price at $13.83 with bullish MACD momentum"
– @bpaynews (2028 followers · 2026-01-11 12:15 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This outlook is positive for AVAX. Technical indicators like the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) suggest upward momentum, pointing to a potential price increase that could attract more buyers soon.

2. @TradiSigCrypto: Strong community sentiment despite minor dip

"Price change: -1.1% (24h), +9.7% (7d) $AVAX Sentiment 78.6% • Upvotes 89.3% • Watchlist 485,310"
– @TradiSigCrypto (714 followers · 2026-01-11 14:24 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Despite a small drop in price over the last day, the AVAX community remains engaged and optimistic. High sentiment scores and a large watchlist indicate confidence in the coin’s potential.

3. @NiklasTheisen: Mixed technical signals

"Trend: Bearish (EMA200, Supertrend) • Momentum: Bearish RSI • Bullish MACD"
– @NiklasTheisen (1547 followers · 2025-12-28 15:36 UTC)
View original post
What this means: The technical picture is unclear. Some indicators suggest a downward trend, while others point to positive momentum. This mix creates uncertainty about AVAX’s short-term direction.

4. @Finora_EN: Bearish trend testing support levels

"Current price below swing equilibrium at 11.865 indicates bearish trend structure"
– @Finora_EN (6369 followers · 2025-12-21 17:31 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a warning sign. If AVAX continues trading below key support levels like $11.31, it could face further price declines.

Conclusion

The outlook for Avalanche (AVAX) is mixed. While some analysts and the community show optimism with bullish price targets and strong sentiment, technical indicators present a more cautious picture with bearish signals. Key factors to watch include institutional interest in Avalanche’s real-world applications and subnet expansion, balanced against competition and market challenges. Keep an eye on the $13.50 support level for clues on whether buyers are stepping in or if the price may fall further.


What is the latest news about AVAX?

Avalanche is making moves with new token releases and real-world projects as competition with other blockchains heats up. Here’s what’s happening:

  1. Agri Exchange Launch (January 11, 2026) – Maalexi introduced a platform on Avalanche that turns farm assets into digital tokens, aiming to handle $23 billion in trade.
  2. State Stablecoin Launch (January 10, 2026) – Wyoming issued a stablecoin called FRNT on Avalanche, boosting its credibility with institutions.
  3. Token Unlock Update (January 12, 2026) – $9.57 million worth of AVAX tokens were released into circulation, part of a larger $1.7 billion token unlock across the crypto market.

Deep Dive

1. Agri Exchange Launch (January 11, 2026)

What happened: Maalexi, based in Abu Dhabi, launched MAATEX on Avalanche. This platform uses blockchain technology to convert agricultural products like grains and livestock into digital tokens. The goal is to make international food trade faster and more efficient. Supported by Hub71, MAATEX targets $23 billion in yearly trade volume.
Why it matters: This is a positive sign for Avalanche (AVAX) because it shows the blockchain being used for real-world business, especially in a valuable industry like agriculture. If successful, it could increase demand for AVAX tokens for transactions and decision-making on the platform. However, since agriculture is slow to adopt new tech, the impact might take some time to fully develop. (Kanalcoin)

2. State Stablecoin Launch (January 10, 2026)

What happened: Wyoming became the first U.S. state to issue a stablecoin called FRNT on Avalanche and Solana blockchains. Managed by Franklin Templeton, FRNT is designed to reduce payment costs and support public funding, with its value backed by U.S. Treasury securities.
Why it matters: This move is somewhat positive for Avalanche, as it increases its presence in the institutional space. However, since FRNT operates on multiple blockchains, Avalanche doesn’t get exclusive benefits. The long-term impact depends on whether more government services, like tax payments, start using Avalanche. (Bitcoin News)

3. Token Unlock Update (January 12, 2026)

What happened: $9.57 million worth of AVAX tokens (about 0.09% of total supply) were gradually released this week. This is part of a larger $1.7 billion token unlock happening across the crypto market. Experts say improving overall market liquidity might help absorb any selling pressure.
Why it matters: There could be short-term downward pressure on AVAX prices if demand is weak when these tokens hit the market. But compared to other projects releasing much larger amounts (like TRUMP’s 28% supply unlock), Avalanche’s unlock is relatively small. Also, the end of strict monetary policies might help limit price drops. (Yahoo Finance)

Conclusion

Avalanche is balancing real-world use cases—like agriculture and government-backed stablecoins—with challenges like increased token supply and competition from other blockchains such as Cardano. The key question is whether these practical applications will outweigh the effects of token dilution and rivalry. Keep an eye on MAATEX’s trade activity and how widely FRNT is used after launch.

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What is expected in the development of AVAX?

Avalanche is making important progress with these key updates:

  1. AVAX HUB v2 Upgrade (January 11, 2026) – Improved ways to find content and better rewards for people who create helpful guides and tools.
  2. Spot AVAX ETF Approvals (First Quarter 2026) – Several companies, including Grayscale, VanEck, and Bitwise, have filed for approval to offer AVAX ETFs, currently under review by the SEC.
  3. Global Ecosystem Expansion (2026) – Avalanche plans to grow into new countries, start local community groups, and improve tools for developers building on its network.

Deep Dive

1. AVAX HUB v2 Upgrade (January 11, 2026)

Overview:
The AVAX HUB v2 is designed to make it easier for developers and educators in the Avalanche community to share and find useful content. It also introduces better rewards for high-quality tutorials, analyses, and developer tools.

What this means:
This is good news for AVAX because clearer and better resources help new developers get started faster, which can lead to more apps and services built on Avalanche. However, the success depends on ongoing community participation.

2. Spot AVAX ETF Approvals (First Quarter 2026)

Overview:
Grayscale has updated its filing to allow staking up to 70% of the AVAX tokens held in its fund (kriptogemhunter). VanEck and Bitwise are also waiting for approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Analysts expect decisions by late March 2026.

What this means:
Approval of these ETFs would be positive for AVAX because it would open the door for more institutional investors and increase trading liquidity. However, there is a risk of delays or rejection by regulators, which could temporarily affect market confidence.

3. Global Ecosystem Expansion (2026)

Overview:
The Avalanche team plans to expand into new regions, create official local chapters, and launch programs focused on building subnets—specialized networks within Avalanche (realwarrior313). They also aim to bring in businesses through pilot projects in gaming and real-world assets (RWAs).

What this means:
This is somewhat positive for AVAX because spreading out geographically reduces dependence on any one market. The success of this effort depends on how well these subnets are adopted—if activity is low, it could limit rewards for token holders.

Conclusion

Avalanche’s 2026 plan combines technical improvements (AVAX HUB v2), financial tools (ETFs), and global growth efforts. While ETF approvals might cause short-term market swings, ongoing adoption of subnets and institutional projects could boost long-term value. A key question remains: how will Avalanche’s real-world asset initiatives compete with Ethereum’s well-established ecosystem in 2026?

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What updates are there in the AVAX code base?

Avalanche recently upgraded its technology to make cross-chain transactions more stable and secure, while also speeding up block processing.

  1. Granite Upgrade (October 2025) – Added flexible block times, biometric login options, and more consistent validator groups.
  2. Octane Upgrade (April 2025) – Lowered fees significantly and introduced a pay-as-you-go system for staking.

Deep Dive

1. Granite Upgrade (October 2025)

Overview: This update included three key improvements:

What this means: These changes make Avalanche more reliable and user-friendly. Faster transaction finalization (almost instant) and easier login methods could attract more everyday users. Plus, the ability to change block times helps the network handle busy periods efficiently.
(Source)

2. Octane Upgrade (April 2025)

Overview: This upgrade made several important changes:

What this means: These improvements cut user fees by about 96% and reduce the cost to launch new subnets by 83%, making it easier and cheaper for developers to build on Avalanche. The flexible staking model encourages more people to become validators, which helps keep the network decentralized and secure.
(Source)

Conclusion

Avalanche’s recent upgrades focus on making the platform scalable for businesses and easier for users. Granite improves cross-chain communication and user access, while Octane makes the system more affordable and efficient. It will be exciting to see which real-world projects take advantage of these advancements next.