Why did the price of DOT fall?
Polkadot (DOT) dropped 3.6% to $3.79 in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 2.6%. This decline is due to technical weaknesses, delays in ETF approvals, and a negative outlook on altcoins.
- Technical Breakdown – DOT hit resistance at $4.10 and then fell below important moving averages.
- ETF Delays – The SEC postponed decisions on HBAR and DOT ETFs until November 8, reducing hopes for institutional investment.
- Altcoin Weakness – Bitcoin’s market share rose to 58.35%, pulling money away from DOT and other altcoins.
Deep Dive
1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
DOT’s price fell below its 7-day simple moving average ($4.11) and 200-day exponential moving average ($4.31), signaling a downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 27.18 shows the coin is oversold, but the MACD indicator (-0.061) suggests selling pressure continues.
What this means:
After failing to stay above $4.10, DOT triggered stop-loss orders and forced some traders to sell. The next support level to watch is $3.62, based on Fibonacci retracement levels.
Key metric to watch: If DOT closes below $3.62, it could fall further toward its 2025 low of $3.24 (CoinMarketCap).
2. Regulatory Delays (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
On September 8, the SEC delayed its decision on Grayscale’s Polkadot ETF application for the third time, citing unresolved “listing standards” (Coinspeaker).
What this means:
This delay slows down potential institutional investment, but experts like James Seyffart from Bloomberg believe approval could come by November if the DOT futures market develops as expected. For now, investor sentiment remains cautious.
3. Altcoin Sentiment Shift (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market increased to 58.35%, up 0.46% in 24 hours, indicating investors are favoring Bitcoin over altcoins. The Altcoin Season Index dropped from 77 to 67, showing less enthusiasm for coins like DOT.
What this means:
Although DOT’s trading volume rose 11% to $341 million, most of this activity was selling, especially around the $3.80 price level.
Conclusion
DOT’s recent decline is driven by technical factors, regulatory delays, and Bitcoin’s growing market dominance. While the coin is oversold and could bounce back, its future depends on Bitcoin’s price stability and progress on ETF approvals.
Key watch: Will DOT hold the $3.62 support level, or will Bitcoin’s push toward $112,000+ cause more pain for altcoins?
What could affect the price of DOT?
Polkadot’s price is balancing between upcoming protocol upgrades and ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
- ETF Approvals (Mixed Impact) – The SEC has delayed decisions, but there’s a strong chance (90%) of approval by late 2025.
- Polkadot 2.0 Upgrades (Positive Outlook) – New features like Elastic Scaling and the JAM protocol are set to launch in 2025.
- Treasury Strategy (Neutral to Negative) – A plan to convert $500K worth of DOT into Bitcoin could create selling pressure.
In-Depth Look
1. ETF Approvals (Mixed Impact)
What’s happening:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed decisions on Polkadot ETFs from Grayscale and 21Shares until November 2025, citing the need for more time to review. Despite this, analysts from Bloomberg estimate there’s about a 90% chance these ETFs will be approved by the end of 2025 under new, clearer rules (Bitget).
Why it matters:
If approved, these ETFs could bring more institutional investors into Polkadot, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, the delay adds uncertainty. Since the SEC’s delay announcement on September 8, Polkadot’s price dropped by 14%, showing how sensitive it is to regulatory news.
2. Polkadot 2.0 Upgrades (Positive Outlook)
What’s new:
Polkadot is rolling out major upgrades in 2025. One is Elastic Scaling, which has been live since August 2025. This allows parachains (independent blockchains connected to Polkadot) to rent extra computing power, increasing transaction capacity. Another is the JAM protocol, expected in late 2025, which will replace the current Relay Chain with modular rollups to lower fees and improve efficiency (CryptoFrontNews).
Why it matters:
These upgrades improve Polkadot’s ability to handle more transactions (up to 143,000 per second in tests) and make it easier for developers to build cross-chain projects. Previous upgrades, like Async Backing, increased staking activity by 19% in early 2025, showing positive momentum.
3. Treasury Strategy (Neutral to Negative)
What’s proposed:
Polkadot’s governance is considering converting 500,000 DOT tokens into tBTC (a Bitcoin token on Ethereum) over the next year using a dollar-cost averaging strategy through Hydration (CCN).
Why it matters:
This move aims to reduce risk by diversifying the treasury’s holdings. However, selling DOT gradually could put downward pressure on its price. The treasury currently holds about $250 million in DOT, so ongoing sales without new demand could hurt investor confidence.
Conclusion
Polkadot’s price outlook depends on balancing hopeful ETF approvals with potential selling from treasury diversification. The upcoming technical upgrades offer a strong foundation for growth. Investors should watch for the SEC’s November decision and the rollout of the JAM protocol for clearer direction.
Will DOT’s staking yield of 10.49% stay attractive if ETF-related investments start flowing in?
What are people saying about DOT?
The Polkadot community is showing a mix of cautious optimism and technical skepticism. Here’s what’s currently trending:
- Traders are betting on a price bounce at the $3.80 support level, aiming for targets up to $4.25.
- The community approved a cap on DOT’s total supply, limiting it to 2.1 billion tokens.
- Delays in approving ETFs (exchange-traded funds) for DOT are causing debate about institutional interest.
In-Depth Look
1. Technical breakout targets $4.25 — @ThomasReidBtc
“After holding steady near $3.80, $DOT is aiming for $4.10 to $4.25 as investor interest grows.”
– @ThomasReidBtc (58K followers · 412K impressions · August 31, 2025)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for DOT. Traders expect the price to gain momentum from the $3.80 support level. However, if the price falls below $3.80, it could retest the lows seen earlier in 2025.
2. Supply cap approved — @CryptoPuIse
“The Polkadot community voted 81% in favor of capping DOT’s supply at 2.1 billion tokens.”
– @CryptoPuIse (127K followers · 2.1M impressions · September 15, 2025)
View original post
What this means: This is somewhat positive. Limiting the supply could increase DOT’s value over time by making it scarcer. On the downside, staking rewards might decrease if inflation slows down (currently at 11.5%).
3. ETF delays cause concern — @johnmorganFL
“The SEC has postponed approval of HBAR and DOT ETFs until November, citing the need for regulatory alignment.”
– @johnmorganFL (293K followers · 1.4M impressions · September 8, 2025)
View original post
What this means: This is a short-term negative for DOT, as institutional investors may hold back on buying. However, analysts believe there could be more than 100% upside once the ETFs are approved.
Conclusion
Opinions on Polkadot are mixed. There’s potential for a technical rebound if the $3.80 support level holds, but regulatory delays and uncertainties remain a challenge. Keep an eye on this key price level — breaking below it could lead to panic selling. Also, the upcoming JAM upgrade planned for Q4 2025 could be a significant factor in boosting developer activity and overall network growth.
What is the latest news about DOT?
Polkadot is navigating regulatory delays while rolling out strong protocol upgrades, and its staking rewards remain attractive.
- SEC Delays Polkadot ETF Decision to November (September 8, 2025) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on Grayscale’s Polkadot ETF for the third time, extending uncertainty.
- New ETF Rules Improve Altcoin Outlook (September 18, 2025) – The SEC approved streamlined rules for altcoin ETFs, making Polkadot a leading candidate for easier approval.
- Tokenomics Update Caps DOT Supply (September 16, 2025) – Polkadot set a hard cap of 2.1 billion DOT tokens to increase scarcity, effective by 2040.
Deep Dive
1. SEC Delays Polkadot ETF Decision to November (September 8, 2025)
Overview:
The SEC pushed back its decision on Grayscale’s Polkadot ETF until November 8, marking the third delay. Experts like Bloomberg’s James Seyffart remain hopeful because Polkadot has a history of regulated futures and is technically ready for ETF approval.
What this means:
This delay is neutral for Polkadot. It slows down institutional investors’ ability to access DOT through ETFs but keeps hopes alive for eventual approval. If approved, ETFs could bring in over $1 billion, based on past Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches. (CoinSpeaker)
2. New ETF Rules Improve Altcoin Outlook (September 18, 2025)
Overview:
The SEC introduced new, standardized rules for crypto ETFs, allowing altcoin ETFs like Polkadot to launch without needing individual approvals. Bloomberg analysts estimate a 90% chance that Polkadot ETFs will be approved by late 2025.
What this means:
This is a positive development for Polkadot. Simplified approval processes make it easier for institutions to invest, which could stabilize demand and improve market liquidity. However, the market may take some time to react to these regulatory changes. (Bitget)
3. Tokenomics Update Caps DOT Supply (September 16, 2025)
Overview:
Polkadot announced changes to its tokenomics, setting a maximum supply of 2.1 billion DOT tokens, down from the previously projected 3.4 billion. The annual issuance will be fixed at 120 million DOT to reduce inflation and selling pressure.
What this means:
This is a positive long-term move. By limiting supply, Polkadot aims to increase scarcity, which could help counteract the recent 19.95% yearly price decline. However, without increased demand, the short-term price impact might be limited. (OnchainTarek on X)
Conclusion
Polkadot is facing a mix of challenges and opportunities. While ETF approval delays test investor patience, supply reforms and new regulatory rules suggest structural improvements ahead. With staking yields around 10.49% and growing interest in altcoins, the question remains: will Polkadot’s technical upgrades outpace regulatory delays?
What is expected in the development of DOT?
Polkadot’s roadmap is focused on making the network faster, more connected, and growing its community.
- Polkadot Hub Launch (Q3 2025) – Smart contracts compatible with Ethereum will go live.
- JAM Protocol Rollout (Late 2025) – A new modular system will replace the current Relay Chain.
- Elastic Scaling & XCM v5 (Live) – Improved cross-chain communication and scaling.
- PVM Mainnet Activation (December 2025) – A new platform for developers to build more efficiently.
Deep Dive
1. Polkadot Hub Launch (Q3 2025)
Overview: The Polkadot Hub will allow developers who use Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity, to build apps on Polkadot easily. This is great for decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and business applications.
What this means: This is positive news for DOT because it could attract Ethereum developers looking for lower fees and strong security. However, it faces competition from Ethereum’s own Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum.
2. JAM Protocol (Late 2025)
Overview: The Join-Accumulate Machine (JAM) will replace Polkadot’s current Relay Chain with a system made up of multiple parallel chains. This change aims to eliminate transaction fees (gas fees) and speed up transactions.
What this means: This is somewhat positive. JAM could increase the network’s capacity to over 600,000 transactions per second, but success depends on how smoothly existing parachains can switch over.
3. Elastic Scaling & XCM v5 (Live)
Overview: Elastic Scaling, launched in May 2025 (source), allows parachains to add processing power during busy times. XCM v5 improves communication between different blockchains, making transactions faster.
What this means: This is good for the network’s usefulness. For example, Mythical Games is already using these features to support scalable Web3 gaming.
4. PVM Mainnet Activation (December 2025)
Overview: The Polkadot Virtual Machine (PVM) will launch in December (source), letting developers build smart contracts using Rust and WebAssembly (Wasm), in addition to Ethereum’s EVM.
What this means: This is positive for developers because it offers more flexibility. PVM’s efficiency might attract projects focused on AI and data, though it may take time for developers to get familiar with it.
Conclusion
Polkadot’s 2025-2026 plans focus on connecting different blockchains (Polkadot Hub), increasing speed and capacity (JAM and Elastic Scaling), and providing better tools for developers (PVM). The key to success will be attracting Ethereum developers and keeping current parachains engaged. The big question is whether Polkadot’s multi-chain approach can outpace Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions.
What updates are there in the DOT code base?
Polkadot's latest updates focus on making the network more scalable, easier to connect with other blockchains, and better for developers.
- Elastic Scaling (August 2025) – Lets parachains rent extra computing power when needed.
- Polkadot-API 1.15.0 (July 2025) – Adds new tools for accessing data and improves data handling.
- Async Backing (May 2025) – Speeds up block times and increases data capacity per block.
Deep Dive
1. Elastic Scaling (August 2025)
What it is: This feature allows parachains (independent blockchains connected to Polkadot) to temporarily lease extra computing cores during busy times. This means they can handle more users or transactions without paying for extra resources all the time.
Parachains can rent these cores through marketplaces like Lastic or CoreHub. Combined with Async Backing, this enables blocks to be created every 6 seconds and carry four times more data. Developers only pay for the computing power they actually use, making it cost-effective.
Why it matters: This is a big win for Polkadot because it lowers costs for developers and makes DOT a strong platform for demanding applications like online games or decentralized finance (DeFi). (Source)
2. Polkadot-API 1.15.0 (July 2025)
What it is: This update introduces rawQuery, a tool that lets developers access low-level blockchain data directly. It also improves how certain data types (BitSequences) are handled by converting them into simple arrays of 0s and 1s. Additionally, some bugs related to starting up the client and upgrading the system were fixed.
Why it matters: These improvements give developers better control and make coding easier by reducing errors. While helpful, these changes are more about refining existing tools than making big leaps forward. (Source)
3. Async Backing (May 2025)
What it is: This upgrade cuts the time it takes to create a new block in half—from about 12 seconds to 6 seconds—and allows each block to hold four times more data. It achieves this by validating transactions in parallel, which speeds up the network.
This feature is already live on Polkadot and supports Elastic Scaling by enabling faster finalization of blocks.
Why it matters: Faster blocks mean quicker transactions and lower delays, making Polkadot more competitive with other fast blockchains like Solana. This improves the overall user experience. (Source)
Conclusion
Polkadot is making steady progress toward a more scalable and efficient network with these updates. Elastic Scaling helps handle high demand cost-effectively, Async Backing speeds up transaction processing, and API improvements make development smoother. Together, these changes aim to attract developers building complex, resource-heavy applications while keeping the network decentralized. The big question now is whether these technical advances will lead to faster growth in the Polkadot ecosystem.