Why did the price of DOT go up?

Polkadot (DOT) increased by 4.22% in the last 24 hours, breaking away from its downward trend over the past week (-23.3%) and month (-24.7%). This rise is partly in line with a 1.56% overall gain in the crypto market but is mainly driven by factors specific to Polkadot. The main reasons for this move are:

1. Expansion in Hong Kong – Polkadot is setting up a research and development center in Hong Kong, signaling growing interest from big institutions.
2. Easier staking access – Coinbase has launched DOT staking for users in New York, encouraging more everyday investors to participate.
3. Technical rebound – After a long period of selling, technical indicators suggest a short-term bounce back.

Deep Dive

1. Strategic Expansion in Hong Kong (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Polkadot plans to open a blockchain research and business development hub in Hong Kong. This move is supported by the local government, which recently recognized Polkadot as a key enterprise (news from October 11, 2025). This helps position Polkadot as a crypto project that follows regulations in one of Asia’s major financial centers.

Why it matters:
Hong Kong is becoming more welcoming to cryptocurrencies, attracting large investors. Polkadot’s focus on real-world business applications, like supporting Indonesia’s digital infrastructure through projects like Mandala Chain, adds credibility. This could increase demand for DOT tokens, which are used for both utility and governance within the network.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on new partnerships in Hong Kong and any updates on regulations affecting DOT-related financial products.

2. Increased Staking Demand (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Coinbase recently made DOT staking available to users in New York (as of October 8, 2025). This offers attractive returns, with up to 16% annual percentage yield (APY) for Cosmos and about 1.9% for Ethereum through DOT-backed protocols like Bifrost’s vDOT.

Why it matters:
Making staking easier encourages people to hold onto their DOT tokens longer, which reduces the number of tokens available for trading. Currently, over 18 million DOT are staked through liquid staking platforms. However, DOT’s staking rewards are somewhat lower compared to competitors like Cosmos, which may limit how much more the price can rise.

3. Technical Rebound (Neutral Outlook)

Overview:
Technical indicators show that DOT was oversold last week, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 31.97 before recovering to 36.02. The price bounced off a key support level at $3.55, known as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. However, other indicators like the MACD remain bearish, though trading volume increased by 3.2% during the recent rally.

Why it matters:
Short-term traders likely took advantage of the oversold conditions to buy DOT. Still, there are important resistance levels ahead at the 30-day and 200-day simple moving averages (around $4.00 to $4.06). Holding above $3.55 is crucial for DOT to maintain upward momentum.

Conclusion

DOT’s recent price increase is driven by its strategic expansion into Hong Kong, improved staking options, and a technical rebound after heavy selling. However, broader market challenges remain, including a low Fear & Greed Index of 40 and a weak altcoin season indicator (-25.4%). The key question is whether DOT can hold the $3.55 support level amid ongoing market uncertainty.

What could affect the price of DOT?

Polkadot’s price is caught between upcoming technology upgrades and ongoing regulatory challenges.

1. Supply Cap & Tokenomics – A hard cap on DOT supply has been approved, which will reduce inflation.
2. JAM Upgrade – A major scalability update is planned for late 2025.
3. ETF Prospects – Applications for DOT exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are delayed by the SEC.

Deep Dive

1. Supply Cap & Inflation Control (Positive for Price)

Overview:
Polkadot’s decentralized organization recently approved Referendum 1710, setting a maximum supply of 2.1 billion DOT tokens. Previously, there was no limit on how many DOTs could be created. This change will lower annual inflation from 7.5% to 3.3% by 2026, with nearly all tokens issued by 2045. This approach is similar to Bitcoin’s fixed supply, which helps create scarcity.

What this means:
With fewer new tokens entering the market, there may be less selling pressure from inflation rewards, potentially stabilizing the price over time. Historically, Bitcoin’s supply limits have helped increase demand. However, DOT’s price has dropped about 22.6% over the past week despite this change.

2. JAM Protocol & Elastic Scaling (Positive for Price)

Overview:
The upcoming Join-Accumulate Machine (JAM) upgrade, expected in late 2025, will replace Polkadot’s current Relay Chain with multiple smaller chains running in parallel. This aims to boost transaction speeds to over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) and enable gas-free transactions. The Elastic Scaling feature, already live since August, allows parachains (independent blockchains connected to Polkadot) to rent computing power as needed.

What this means:
These improvements could make Polkadot more attractive to developers and users, especially those looking for alternatives to Ethereum. A 2024 test on Kusama (Polkadot’s experimental network) reached 143,000 TPS. However, success depends on real-world adoption by projects like Mythical Games’ Web3 titles.

3. ETF Delays & Regulatory Risks (Negative for Price)

Overview:
In June 2025, Grayscale and 21Shares filed for spot DOT ETFs, which would allow investors to buy DOT through traditional stock markets. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed decisions until 2026. Meanwhile, Phala Network’s move to Ethereum Layer 2 shows some fragmentation within the Polkadot ecosystem.

What this means:
If approved, ETFs could bring significant institutional investment, similar to Bitcoin’s price rally in 2024. But delays mean Polkadot still relies heavily on individual retail investors. Regulatory uncertainty, like New York’s strict rules on staking, could also slow growth.

Conclusion

Polkadot’s price is balancing between positive factors like the supply cap and JAM upgrade, and negative pressures from ETF delays and ecosystem challenges. The $4.07 support level (tested on October 8) and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 36 suggest the token may be oversold, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative.

Watch: Will DOT hold above $4.00 before the JAM upgrade launches, or will ETF delays push it back toward the 2025 low of $3.15?

What are people saying about DOT?

The Polkadot community is debating whether the $4.60 price level is a strong launchpad for growth or a risky trapdoor. Here’s the current sentiment:

1. Optimists expect Polkadot (DOT) to jump to $8–$12 if it breaks above $4.60
2. Skeptics warn that if support fails, DOT could fall back to $3.30
3. Upgrade supporters are excited about Polkadot 2.0’s new features like elastic scaling and the JAM protocol

Deep Dive

1. @ThomasReidBtc: Bullish Signs Near $4.25

“$DOT is holding steady around $3.80 – a breakout to $4.10–$4.25 looks likely given strong fundamentals.”
– @ThomasReidBtc (23K followers · 189K impressions · August 31, 2025)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for DOT. If it can reclaim $4.00, it may attract renewed interest from big investors after a recent 22% drop in price over the week.

2. CoinMarketCap Post: Mixed Views on $4.60 Resistance

“If DOT breaks $4.60, it could rally to $8–$12. If it fails, expect a drop to $3.30. The overall trend is still downward.”
– Anonymous trader (July 27, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Traders are cautious. The $4.60 level has been tested three times since May 2025 without success, making it a critical point that could determine DOT’s next move.

3. Yahoo Finance: Positive Outlook on Polkadot 2.0 Upgrades

“Elastic Scaling (launched June 2025) and JAM Protocol (expected Q4 2025) could increase DOT’s usefulness by over 30%.”
– Analyst report (May 30, 2025)
View original post
What this means: These upgrades are promising for the long term. They aim to fix Polkadot’s scalability challenges and position it as a strong competitor to Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions.

Conclusion

Opinions on Polkadot are mixed. Technical traders are focused on the $3.80–$4.60 price range, while developers and supporters are excited about upcoming upgrades. Keep an eye on the SEC’s decision in November 2025 regarding the 21Shares Polkadot ETF — approval could boost DOT’s credibility with institutional investors, especially as it competes with other projects like Solana and Cosmos.

What is the latest news about DOT?

Polkadot is making moves in institutional adoption, technical upgrades, and handling market ups and downs. Here are the key updates:

1. Hong Kong Partnership (October 11, 2025) – Polkadot joins Hong Kong’s major enterprise program focused on blockchain research and development.
2. Phala Moves to Ethereum Layer 2 (October 10, 2025) – The AI-focused parachain Phala shifts completely to Ethereum’s Layer 2 for better scalability.
3. Coinbase Launches DOT Staking in New York (October 8, 2025) – DOT staking is now available in New York after getting regulatory approval.

In-Depth Look

1. Hong Kong Partnership (October 11, 2025)

What happened:
Hong Kong’s government selected Polkadot as part of its fifth group of strategic companies focusing on AI, bio-health, and blockchain technology. Polkadot plans to open a local research and development center in the region.

Why it matters:
This is a positive sign for Polkadot (DOT) because it shows government support, which can help attract investment from Asian institutions. Hong Kong’s friendly approach to cryptocurrencies could speed up the use of Polkadot’s technology that connects different blockchains. (Binance News)

2. Phala Moves to Ethereum Layer 2 (October 10, 2025)

What happened:
Phala Network, a parachain built on Polkadot that focuses on AI, voted to move entirely to Ethereum’s Layer 2 network. This change aims to improve scalability and take advantage of Ethereum’s large developer community and liquidity.

Why it matters:
This is neutral for DOT. While Polkadot loses one parachain, it shows flexibility in working across different blockchain networks. It also highlights the competition between Polkadot and Ethereum for developers and projects. (Cointelegraph)

3. Coinbase Launches DOT Staking in New York (October 8, 2025)

What happened:
Coinbase received approval from New York’s financial regulators (NYDFS) to offer DOT staking services in the state. Users can now earn about 11.5% annual returns by staking DOT, making it easier for people in New York to participate.

Why it matters:
This is good news for DOT’s liquidity and retail user growth. Regulatory approval in New York, a strict market, could encourage wider adoption across the U.S. However, the demand for staking will depend on how stable DOT’s price remains. (Decrypt)

Conclusion

Polkadot is advancing on multiple fronts—from building government partnerships to evolving its technology. These efforts show a focus on gaining trust from institutions while staying technically flexible. With easier staking options and growing cross-chain applications, DOT’s future is tied to its ability to connect different blockchain networks. Will Hong Kong’s support boost developer activity for Polkadot in Asia?

What is expected in the development of DOT?

Polkadot’s upcoming updates focus on making the network faster, more connected, and growing its community. Here are the key improvements to watch for:

1. JAM Upgrade (Late 2025) – Replaces the current Relay Chain with a more flexible system.
2. Full EVM Compatibility (December 2025) – Allows Ethereum apps to move over easily.
3. Elastic Scaling Rollout (Ongoing) – Lets parachains use extra computing power when needed.
4. DOT Hard Cap (March 2026) – Limits total DOT supply to 2.1 billion and cuts inflation in half.

Deep Dive

1. JAM Upgrade (Late 2025)

What it is:
The Join-Accumulate Machine (JAM) will replace Polkadot’s Relay Chain with a hybrid system that combines Polkadot’s strong security with Ethereum’s smart contract flexibility. It’s designed to handle very complex applications, like 3D games, directly on the blockchain, aiming to process over 1 million transactions per second with high data speeds.

Why it matters:
This upgrade could attract developers from traditional web platforms by offering a "supercomputer on blockchain." However, there’s a risk of delays since only 38 out of 50 development teams had finished integrating it by August 2025.

2. Full EVM Compatibility (December 2025)

What it is:
Polkadot will support the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), meaning developers can run Ethereum smart contracts (written in Solidity) on Polkadot without changes, while also benefiting from Polkadot’s ability to connect different blockchains.

Why it matters:
This makes it easier for Ethereum projects to move to Polkadot, potentially increasing the total value locked (TVL) on the network. However, Polkadot will face strong competition from Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions. Success depends on how many developers adopt this feature. To encourage this, $9.87 million worth of DOT (3 million DOT) has been set aside for grants supporting EVM projects.

3. Elastic Scaling (Live on Kusama, Polkadot Q4 2025)

What it is:
Parachains (independent blockchains connected to Polkadot) can rent extra computing power during busy times, like when a popular game launches. Tests on Kusama (Polkadot’s experimental network) showed speeds of 143,000 transactions per second at 23% capacity.

Why it matters:
This is great news for projects with sudden spikes in activity, such as gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi). For example, Mythical Games has already seen a 40% reduction in delays. On the downside, if the market for renting computing time becomes unstable, it could cause problems. Watching how these auctions perform after launch will be important.

4. DOT Hard Cap Implementation (March 2026)

What it is:
A referendum approved a limit on the total number of DOT tokens, capping supply at 2.1 billion. This will reduce annual inflation from 7.5% to 3.3% initially, similar to Bitcoin’s approach to scarcity. New DOT creation will stop around the year 2160.

Why it matters:
This is a positive long-term move that could encourage more people to stake their DOT tokens, as fewer new tokens entering the market means less selling pressure. However, expect some short-term price swings as traders adjust to this new deflationary setup.

Conclusion

Polkadot’s roadmap combines bold technical upgrades like JAM and Elastic Scaling with financial discipline through the DOT hard cap. These changes could strengthen Polkadot’s position as a leader in multi-chain networks. Still, challenges remain, including execution risks and competition from Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions. The big question is: Will Polkadot’s incentives attract more developers than rival ecosystems? Keep an eye on parachain activity and cross-chain transactions after the EVM compatibility launch for early signs.

What updates are there in the DOT code base?

Polkadot’s technology is getting major upgrades aimed at improving scalability, cross-chain communication, and developer tools.

1. Elastic Scaling (August 2025) – Parachains can now adjust computing resources on demand.
2. JAM Protocol Integration (Q3 2025) – Adds a flexible runtime for advanced blockchain applications.
3. AltLayer Rollup Integration (July 2025) – Makes launching high-performance rollups easier and faster.
4. Polkadot-API v1.15.0 (July 2025) – New tools for querying data and better stability for developers.

In-Depth Look

1. Elastic Scaling (August 2025)

What it is: Parachains (independent blockchains connected to Polkadot) can now increase or decrease their computing power based on demand.
How it works: Using Kusama’s Agile Coretime model, parachains can rent extra “cores” during busy times, like when a game or finance app sees a spike in users. This replaces the old fixed slot auctions, making it easier and cheaper for developers.
Why it matters: For example, Mythical Games can handle sudden user surges without paying for unused resources. This upgrade makes Polkadot more attractive for projects needing high performance, supporting wider adoption.
(Source)

2. JAM Protocol (Q3 2025)

What it is: Combines Polkadot’s secure Relay Chain with smart contract features similar to Ethereum.
How it works: JAM creates a hybrid environment that supports complex tasks like AI-powered apps while keeping Polkadot’s security. Test networks showed it can handle 143,000 transactions per second using a portion of available cores.
Why it matters: Developers can build sophisticated apps, such as tokenized real-world assets, without sacrificing speed. While integration is complex and won’t have immediate effects, it’s a big step toward a more diverse and powerful ecosystem.
(Source)

3. AltLayer Rollup Integration (July 2025)

What it is: A partnership with AltLayer to let developers launch Polkadot-native rollups quickly using a no-code platform.
How it works: AltLayer’s Rollup-as-a-Service (RaaS) integrates with Polkadot’s SDK, providing ready-made tools like sequencers, oracles, and cross-chain features.
Why it matters: Building app-specific rollups, such as for DeFi projects, can now take minutes instead of months. This lowers the barrier for developers and speeds up growth in the Polkadot ecosystem.
(Source)

4. Polkadot-API v1.15.0 (July 2025)

What it is: Updates to the Polkadot API that give developers better tools to access blockchain data and improve app stability.
How it works: Added a rawQuery feature for direct data access and improved handling of bit sequences. Also fixed rare bugs during runtime upgrades.
Why it matters: Developers get more precise control over on-chain information, like auditing governance proposals, which helps build more reliable apps. This update is mostly behind-the-scenes but important for keeping developers engaged.
(Source)

Conclusion

Polkadot is focusing on scalable technology and better developer tools to prepare for enterprise-level Web3 adoption. While price swings may continue in the short term, these updates strengthen Polkadot’s position as a leading multi-chain platform.

The key question: What milestones will show Polkadot is moving from building infrastructure to driving mainstream adoption?