What could affect the price of DOT?
Polkadot is currently balancing between exciting upcoming upgrades and challenges from a tough market environment.
- JAM Upgrade (Dec 2025) – A major update aimed at improving scalability that could bring more developers back
- DOT ETF Outlook – Delays from the SEC slow down hopes for big institutional investments
- Tokenomics Changes – A hard cap on DOT supply lowers inflation but might cause some stakers to leave
In-Depth Look
1. JAM Protocol & Elastic Scaling (Positive Outlook)
What’s Happening:
The Join-Accumulate Machine (JAM) upgrade, planned for December 2025, will change Polkadot’s main Relay Chain into a system made up of smaller, parallel “mini-chains.” Along with Elastic Scaling (already live since August), this lets parachains rent extra processing power using DOT tokens, which could increase demand for DOT.
Tests on Kusama, Polkadot’s experimental network, showed it can handle 143,000 transactions per second at 23% load (Polkadot Wiki). The upgrade aims for faster block times (500 milliseconds) and full compatibility with Ethereum through PolkaVM by the end of the year.
Why It Matters:
If successful, this upgrade could stop DOT’s recent 34% monthly price drop by attracting developers who need scalable infrastructure for Web3 projects. However, since the upgrade is still 6-12 months away, any price improvements might take time to show.
2. ETF Regulatory Challenges (Mixed Impact)
What’s Happening:
In July 2025, Grayscale and 21Shares applied to launch spot DOT ETFs, but the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed decisions until November 2025 (CoinDesk). Approval depends on proving strong market oversight, which is tricky because Polkadot’s governance is decentralized.
On the other hand, Hong Kong recently recognized Polkadot as a “Key Enterprise” for blockchain research and development (Binance News), showing growing institutional interest in the region.
Why It Matters:
If approved, the ETF could bring over $500 million in institutional investments (according to 21Shares). But ongoing delays might reinforce a negative view among traders, labeling DOT as a “deadchain” with little growth potential.
3. Inflation Cap & Staking Effects (Potential Risks)
What’s Happening:
In September, Referendum #1710 set a hard cap of 2.1 billion DOT tokens, reducing the expected supply in 2040 by 44% compared to earlier forecasts. Annual inflation dropped from 7.4% to 3.3%, and staking rewards fell to 11.5% (The Block).
Currently, 55% of DOT is staked, but validators now receive 85% of new tokens. If staking rewards fall below alternatives like Ethereum’s 6%, some validators might sell their DOT, increasing selling pressure.
Why It Matters:
While this deflationary move could increase DOT’s value over time, it might cause some validators to leave in the short term. Exchange reserves recently hit an 18-month high, suggesting that bearish investors are accumulating DOT.
Conclusion
Polkadot’s future depends on successfully delivering the JAM upgrade while managing tough market conditions. If upgrades go well, DOT could test $4.06 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), but if ETF approvals stall, it might fall below $2.15 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement).
Will developer interest overcome the “ghost chain” label? Keep an eye on weekly active addresses and developer activity through the end of the year.
What are people saying about DOT?
Polkadot’s price is moving up and down, sparking discussions among traders. Bulls (those expecting prices to rise) are aiming for $4.25, while bears (those expecting prices to fall) are watching closely for a drop below $3.80. Here’s what’s trending:
- Breakout bets – Traders expect a rise to $4.25 if the $3.80 level holds steady
- Support showdown – $3.80 is a critical price point that could determine the next move
- Upgrade optimism – The upcoming Polkadot 2.0 update might boost demand
Deep Dive
1. @ThomasReidBtc: Breakout Above $4.25? Bullish
“After holding near $3.80, $DOT looks ready to break out with short-term targets between $4.10 and $4.25. Strong fundamentals in the Polkadot ecosystem support this upside.”
– @ThomasReidBtc (12K followers · 18K impressions · Aug 31, 2025)
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What this means: This is positive news for Polkadot. If the price stays above $3.80, it could gain momentum and push toward the $4.10–$4.25 range, as traders watch this resistance zone closely.
2. @CryptoMechanic: $3.80 Support Test Bearish
“If Polkadot falls below $3.80, more losses are likely. A possible rebound entry is between $3.80 and $3.82, targeting $3.89.”
– @CryptoMechanic (8.3K followers · 5.7K impressions · Jul 30, 2025)
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What this means: This is a warning sign. Repeated tests of the $3.80 level suggest buyers are losing strength. If the price breaks below $3.80, it could fall further toward $3.30–$3.00.
3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: Polkadot 2.0 Hype Mixed
“Polkadot 2.0, expected between August and September 2025, will bring elastic scaling and compatibility with Ethereum’s Virtual Machine (EVM). Price forecasts range from a low of $3.47 to a high of $10.40 in 2025.”
– CoinMarketCap Research (Aug 12, 2025)
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What this means: The outlook is mixed. While the upgrade could increase Polkadot’s usefulness, a large number of DOT tokens (about 2.3 million, worth $9.4 million) will become available in August, which might lead to short-term selling pressure.
Conclusion
The overall view on Polkadot is mixed. There’s technical optimism if the price holds near $3.80, but broader market concerns remain since DOT has dropped 34% over the past month. Traders are divided: some expect a bounce driven by the Polkadot 2.0 upgrade, while others worry about further declines if Bitcoin’s dominance grows. Keep an eye on the $3.80 support level and daily closing prices—holding above this could mean buyers are stepping in, while falling below could signal more losses ahead. Also, consider whether Polkadot’s 11.8% staking yield is enough to offset its declining developer activity. The next 48 hours will be crucial in deciding the direction.
What is the latest news about DOT?
Polkadot is making moves in the institutional space and adjusting its technology during a volatile market. Here’s what’s new:
- Polkadot Joins Hong Kong’s Key Enterprises (October 11, 2025) – Selected for blockchain research and development, signaling growth in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Phala Moves Fully to Ethereum Layer 2 (October 10, 2025) – Leaves Polkadot’s parachain to focus on confidential AI projects on Ethereum.
- Coinbase Launches DOT Staking in New York (October 8, 2025) – Regulatory approval expands DOT’s availability in a major U.S. market.
In-Depth Look
1. Polkadot Joins Hong Kong’s Key Enterprises (October 11, 2025)
What Happened:
Polkadot was selected as part of Hong Kong’s fifth group of strategic companies, alongside industries like artificial intelligence and biotechnology. The project plans to open a regional center for research and business development, taking advantage of Hong Kong’s supportive crypto policies. Since 2023, Hong Kong has aimed to attract over 100 high-impact companies, creating 22,000 jobs and bringing in $7.7 billion in investments.
Why It Matters:
This is a positive sign for Polkadot (DOT), as it strengthens connections with institutions and could boost adoption in Asia. However, competition is strong, with other blockchain projects like Solana also targeting the region. (Binance News)
2. Phala Moves Fully to Ethereum Layer 2 (October 10, 2025)
What Happened:
Phala Network, an AI-focused parachain on Polkadot, completed its move to Ethereum Layer 2 after a community vote. This switch aims to improve scalability and access Ethereum’s larger liquidity pool. Phala gave up its Polkadot parachain slot due to “limited scalability and high maintenance costs.”
Why It Matters:
This is a short-term setback for Polkadot’s ecosystem diversity but shows its ability to adapt. Phala’s move highlights Ethereum’s strong position in enterprise blockchain use, though Polkadot’s main parachains like Moonbeam continue to operate actively. (Cointelegraph)
3. Coinbase Launches DOT Staking in New York (October 8, 2025)
What Happened:
Coinbase received regulatory approval to offer DOT staking in New York, ending a long regulatory hurdle. Users can now earn about 12% annual returns by staking DOT, putting it on par with Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) in one of the U.S.’s toughest markets.
Why It Matters:
This development is somewhat positive, as easier staking access could increase demand for DOT. However, DOT’s price has been under pressure, down about 35% over the past month. The approval marks progress with regulators but doesn’t fully address broader market challenges. (Yahoo Finance)
Conclusion
Polkadot is balancing growth opportunities like expanding in Hong Kong and staking access with challenges such as losing parachains like Phala. While institutional interest is growing, DOT’s price struggles reflect wider market pressures and competition. The big question for 2026: Can Polkadot’s focus on connecting different blockchains outpace Ethereum’s strong network effects?
What is expected in the development of DOT?
Polkadot is moving forward with some key updates:
- Smart Contract Launch (December 2025) – Polkadot will support native smart contracts using Ethereum’s Solidity language and its own advanced system.
- JAM Protocol Upgrade (Early 2026) – A major upgrade that replaces the current system with a faster, fee-free network capable of handling about 1 million transactions per second.
- DOT Supply Hard Cap (March 2026) – The total number of DOT tokens will be capped at 2.1 billion, reducing inflation and making the token more scarce.
Deep Dive
1. Smart Contract Launch (December 2025)
What’s happening:
Polkadot will allow developers to run smart contracts directly on its platform using two systems: the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which supports Solidity (Ethereum’s programming language), and the Polkadot Virtual Machine (PVM), which offers better scalability and cross-chain communication. Before launching on Polkadot’s main network, this feature will be tested on Kusama’s test network in October 2025.
Why it matters:
This makes it easier for developers who are familiar with Ethereum to build or move their decentralized apps (dApps) to Polkadot. It could increase the usefulness of DOT and attract more projects. However, Polkadot will still face competition from other platforms like Avalanche that already support EVM.
2. JAM Protocol Upgrade (Early 2026)
What’s happening:
The JAM upgrade will replace Polkadot’s current Relay Chain with a new system made up of multiple parallel chains. This change will remove transaction fees (gas fees), increase speed to about 1 million transactions per second, and introduce a pay-as-you-go model for resource use.
Why it matters:
This upgrade could make Polkadot very attractive for large-scale applications and businesses because of its speed and cost efficiency. However, the complexity of this new system might slow down how quickly it is adopted. Its success depends on how smoothly existing projects can switch over.
3. DOT Supply Hard Cap (March 2026)
What’s happening:
A new rule (Referendum 1710) will limit the total supply of DOT tokens to 2.1 billion. This will cut the yearly increase in tokens by over half at first and introduce regular reductions in new token issuance every two years. Inflation will drop from 7.5% to 3.3% in 2026.
Why it matters:
Limiting the supply makes DOT more scarce, similar to Bitcoin’s approach to controlling inflation. This scarcity could increase DOT’s value over time. On the downside, lower inflation means smaller rewards for people who help secure the network by staking their tokens, which might reduce their participation if demand doesn’t grow enough.
Conclusion
Polkadot’s upcoming updates focus on making the network faster and more scalable (JAM), easier for developers to use (EVM/PVM support), and improving its token economics (supply cap). These changes aim to establish DOT as a leading platform for high-performance, interconnected Web3 applications. The big question is whether Polkadot can grow quickly enough to compete with Ethereum’s well-established ecosystem and overcome broader economic challenges.
What updates are there in the DOT code base?
Polkadot’s software updates focus on making the network faster, easier to connect with other blockchains, and simpler for developers to build on.
- Smart Contracts Integration (October 2025) – Support for Ethereum-compatible (EVM) and Polkadot’s own (PVM) smart contracts launches first on Kusama, then on Polkadot in December.
- API v1.15.0 (Q3 2025) – New tools let developers access data more easily and work with complex data formats more intuitively.
- JAM Protocol (May 2025) – Polkadot 2.0 introduces flexible scaling and better communication between blockchains for faster, cheaper transactions.
Deep Dive
1. Smart Contracts Integration (October 2025)
What’s happening: Polkadot is adding two types of smart contract support. First, it will run Ethereum-compatible contracts (EVM), allowing developers to use existing Ethereum code without changes. Second, it introduces Polkadot’s own PVM, which supports advanced features like running tasks in parallel for better performance. Kusama, Polkadot’s experimental network, will get these features in October 2025, followed by Polkadot in December.
Why it matters: This update makes Polkadot more attractive to developers familiar with Ethereum while offering faster and more flexible options. Users can expect lower fees and more decentralized apps (dApps) to choose from.
(Source)
2. API v1.15.0 (Q3 2025)
What’s happening: The Polkadot-API library now includes a feature called rawQuery, which lets developers access blockchain data at a very detailed level. It also improved how bit arrays (sequences of 0s and 1s) are handled, making them easier to work with.
Why it matters: While this update doesn’t directly affect users, it helps developers build and debug applications faster and more efficiently, especially when dealing with complex data like governance settings or on-chain flags.
(Source)
3. JAM Protocol (May 2025)
What’s happening: Polkadot 2.0 introduced the JAM (Join-Accumulate Machine) framework, which allows the network to scale resources up or down based on demand. It also uses XCM v5, an improved messaging system that speeds up communication between different blockchains connected to Polkadot.
Why it matters: This makes Polkadot’s multi-chain ecosystem faster and more cost-effective, especially for decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT applications that need to work across multiple blockchains. It also prepares the network for future growth.
(Source)
Conclusion
Polkadot is evolving to become more scalable, better connected with other blockchains, and easier for developers to use. The upcoming smart contract support could drive significant growth by bringing Ethereum developers into Polkadot’s ecosystem while offering unique technical benefits.
The big question: Can Polkadot’s multi-chain design attract the next generation of decentralized apps faster than traditional single-chain networks?
Why did the price of DOT go up?
Polkadot (DOT) increased by 2.32% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 1.38%. This growth is driven by easier access to staking, technical signals showing the coin was oversold, and expectations that token inflation will slow down.
- Easier Staking – Coinbase started offering DOT staking in New York, making it more accessible.
- Supply Limit Momentum – The Polkadot DAO approved a hard cap of 2.1 billion DOT tokens on September 15, which could reduce supply over time.
- Technical Bounce – Indicators showed DOT was oversold, and price support at $2.73 encouraged buying.
Deep Dive
1. Easier Staking Access (Positive for Price)
Overview:
Starting October 8, 2025, Coinbase began allowing users in New York to stake DOT after getting regulatory approval. Staking means users can earn rewards by holding and supporting the network, with rates varying by coin (for example, 1.9% annual yield for Ethereum and up to 16% for Cosmos).
Why it matters:
More people staking means fewer DOT tokens are available to trade, which can push prices up. Also, New York has strict rules, so Coinbase’s approval adds trust and might attract bigger investors.
What to watch:
How many people start staking and whether the rewards encourage them to hold DOT long-term or just for quick profits.
2. Changes in Token Supply (Mixed Effects)
Overview:
On September 15, 2025, Polkadot’s decentralized organization (DAO) voted to limit the total DOT supply to 2.1 billion tokens. This is a big change from before, when new tokens could be created without a fixed limit. The annual creation of new DOT tokens will drop from 120 million to about 56.88 million by 2026.
Why it matters:
Initially, this caused the price to drop about 5%, but limiting supply can make DOT more valuable over time, similar to Bitcoin’s fixed supply. However, lower inflation means smaller rewards for those validating the network, which might discourage some participants.
What to watch:
The first reduction in new token issuance scheduled for March 2026 (called “Pi Day”) and whether demand for DOT will stay strong despite lower rewards.
3. Technical Price Recovery (Neutral to Positive)
Overview:
Technical analysis shows DOT’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31.92, indicating it was oversold and potentially undervalued. The price bounced back near a key support level at $2.73, based on Fibonacci retracement—a common tool traders use to identify price levels.
Why it matters:
Investors took advantage of the lower price to buy DOT, but there’s still resistance around $3.70, the 50-day moving average. Trading volume dropped by nearly 13% in the last day, suggesting cautious optimism rather than strong buying pressure.
What to watch:
If DOT can stay above $3.14 (the 7-day moving average), it could confirm a stronger upward trend.
Conclusion
DOT’s recent price increase is driven by more staking activity, technical signals showing it was oversold, and optimism about the new supply cap. However, broader market challenges—like a low Fear & Greed Index score of 25 out of 100 and DOT’s 34% drop over the past month—suggest caution.
Key point to watch: Can DOT maintain support above $2.73 as the SEC’s decision on the 21Shares ETF approaches on November 8?