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What could affect the price of DOT?

Polkadot is at a crossroads, balancing between technical challenges and exciting upgrades that could change its future.

  1. JAM Upgrade & Elastic Scaling – A major update planned for late 2025 that could improve the network’s speed and efficiency (positive if successful).
  2. DOT Supply Cap – The total number of DOT tokens will be limited to 2.1 billion to reduce inflation and increase scarcity over time.
  3. ETF Approval Delays – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed decisions on DOT-related ETFs, causing short-term uncertainty but potential long-term gains if approved.

In-Depth Look

1. JAM Upgrade & Elastic Scaling (Positive Outlook)

What is it?
Polkadot’s upcoming JAM (Join-Accumulate Machine) upgrade plans to replace its current Relay Chain with a new system made up of multiple parallel chains. This change aims to remove transaction fees (gas fees) and greatly increase the network’s capacity. Since August 2025, Elastic Scaling has allowed parachains (smaller chains connected to Polkadot) to rent extra computing power as needed, paying with DOT tokens. Tests show Polkadot can handle up to 143,000 transactions per second at partial load (Polkadot Wiki).

Why it matters:
If this upgrade works as planned, it could attract more decentralized apps (dApps) and institutional participants, boosting demand for DOT. Similar major upgrades in other networks, like Ethereum’s Merge, have led to price increases. However, Polkadot’s price dropped 27% over 30 days recently, reflecting doubts about whether the upgrade will be delivered on time.

2. DOT Tokenomics Changes (Mixed Impact)

What is it?
In September 2025, Polkadot’s community voted to cap the total DOT supply at 2.1 billion tokens, down from an expected 3.4 billion under the previous system. This change will reduce annual inflation from 7.4% to 3.3% by 2026, making DOT more scarce—similar to Bitcoin’s fixed supply. However, after the announcement, DOT’s price fell 6% as some stakers worried about lower rewards (The Block).

Why it matters:
While limiting supply could increase DOT’s value over time, there may be short-term selling pressure as validators (who secure the network by staking DOT) adjust to lower returns. Currently, 55% of all DOT is staked, but alternatives like liquid staking (e.g., vDOT, with 19 million DOT locked) might reduce the impact on price.

3. Regulatory Challenges & ETF Delays (Negative Short-Term)

What is it?
The SEC has delayed decisions on spot DOT ETFs until November 2025, citing concerns about market oversight. Grayscale’s ETF proposal depends on DOT futures trading on Coinbase, which started in July 2024. Meanwhile, Polkadot Capital Group is working to bring real-world asset tokenization to Wall Street (Cointelegraph).

Why it matters:
If approved, DOT ETFs could bring significant investment inflows similar to Bitcoin ETFs, which manage $146 billion in assets. However, DOT has underperformed Bitcoin by 28% over the past year, showing low institutional interest. Clearer regulations after the 2025 U.S. elections will be important for DOT’s future.

Conclusion

Polkadot’s future depends on successfully rolling out the JAM upgrade and Elastic Scaling to support its vision as a key Web3 platform. This is balanced by delays in ETF approvals and cautious sentiment among stakers. The new 2.1 billion token cap adds scarcity, but broader market risks (crypto markets down 7% monthly) and weak technical indicators (RSI at 38, below major moving averages) suggest investors should be careful.

Will Polkadot’s growth outpace investors’ patience? Watch for JAM upgrade testnets in Q4 2025 and SEC updates on altcoin ETFs.

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What are people saying about DOT?

The Polkadot (DOT) community is divided between hopeful optimism and cautious skepticism. Here’s what’s currently trending:

  1. Technical traders are targeting prices above $10 if DOT breaks through key resistance levels.
  2. Debates about inflation are heating up after Gavin Wood suggested changes to how validators get paid.
  3. Bearish signals are growing stronger as DOT tests important support levels.

Deep Dive

1. @ThomasReidBtc: Falling wedge pattern suggests a 210% price increase 🚀 bullish

"$DOT’s descending wedge breakout could spark a rally to $11.05 (+210%) if it breaks resistance at $3.51. Accumulation near $3.40 shows long-term confidence."
– @ThomasReidBtc (12K followers · 45K impressions · June 27, 2025, 12:45 AM UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for DOT. Falling wedge patterns often signal a strong price reversal. If DOT breaks above $3.51, it could attract renewed interest from big investors.

2. @Polkadot: Proposed inflation cuts to increase scarcity 🛠️ mixed

"Annual DOT inflation might drop from 7.7% to 5.7% by 2030 under Gavin Wood’s Proof-of-Personhood plan, which would reduce selling pressure from validators."
– @Polkadot (1.2M followers · 890K impressions · July 15, 2025, 8:08 PM UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is neutral in the short term. Lower inflation can help stabilize DOT’s price, but changes could face resistance from validators and might lead to more centralization in the network.

3. @CryptoMechanic: Death cross signals potential drop to $3.18 ⚠️ bearish

"DOT’s 4-hour death cross and negative Awesome Oscillator suggest further decline. Losing $3.80 support could cause a 20% drop to $3.02."
– @CryptoMechanic (88K followers · 220K impressions · July 8, 2025, 2:17 PM UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a warning sign for DOT. A death cross is a technical indicator that often leads to increased selling. If DOT falls below $3.80, it could confirm broader market fears.

Conclusion

The outlook for Polkadot is mixed, with some technical signals pointing up and others suggesting caution. While upcoming upgrades like JAM and proposed inflation cuts aim to improve the network’s fundamentals, DOT’s price remains closely tied to the $3.80 support level. Watch for a clear break above $4.60 or below $3.50, as either move could set the direction for DOT through the end of 2025.

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}


What is the latest news about DOT?

Polkadot is making technical improvements while attracting more interest from big investors, and everyday users are getting easier ways to participate. Here are the key updates:

  1. EU Staking through Bunq (October 21, 2025) – Polkadot (DOT) is now part of a popular European digital bank’s flexible crypto staking service.
  2. Polkadot 2.0 Progress (October 20, 2025) – New features like Elastic Scaling and the JAM Protocol are boosting developer activity.
  3. Supply Cap Vote Completed (September 15, 2025) – The community agreed to limit the total DOT supply to 2.1 billion to help control inflation.

In-Depth Look

1. EU Staking through Bunq (October 21, 2025)

What happened: Dutch digital bank Bunq launched a staking service for 20 cryptocurrencies, including Polkadot, across the European Union on September 25, 2025. Users can stake their DOT tokens without locking them up, earning up to 10% annual returns before fees. After Bunq’s 25% fee, the effective return is about 8.25%. To keep funds accessible, only half of the staked assets are actively used, which lowers potential earnings. The service also clearly explains risks like slashing (losing tokens due to network penalties) and tax responsibilities.
Why it matters: This service makes it easier for everyday users in Europe to earn rewards by staking DOT. While fees and partial staking reduce profits, the partnership with Kraken’s regulated custody services adds trust and security. (Cointribune)

2. Polkadot 2.0 Progress (October 20, 2025)

What happened: Polkadot is introducing upgrades like Asynchronous Backing, which speeds up transaction confirmation, and Elastic Scaling, which adjusts resources based on demand. The JAM Protocol combines Polkadot and Ethereum technologies to improve performance. These changes aim to handle over 1 million transactions per second. Projects like Hydration, a decentralized exchange with $330 million in assets, are already benefiting.
Why it matters: These upgrades improve Polkadot’s ability to support decentralized finance (DeFi) and attract institutional users. The inclusion of Polkadot in Hong Kong’s blockchain research shows growing regulatory acceptance. (MEXC)

3. Supply Cap Vote Completed (September 15, 2025)

What happened: Polkadot’s community approved Referendum 1710, setting a maximum supply of 2.1 billion DOT tokens. Previously, there was no fixed limit. Starting in March 2026, new token issuance will decrease every two years, aiming for 1.91 billion DOT by 2040 instead of 3.4 billion under the old system.
Why it matters: This creates scarcity similar to Bitcoin’s fixed supply, which can support long-term value. However, staking rewards will decline over time, and the announcement caused a 6% price drop due to concerns about validators selling tokens. (CCN)

Conclusion

Polkadot is combining technical improvements, regulated staking options, and a capped token supply to appeal to institutional investors. Still, how staking rewards and exchange-traded fund (ETF) developments unfold will be important to watch. The capped supply could strengthen DOT’s role as a key “digital infrastructure” platform, competing with others like Solana.


What is expected in the development of DOT?

Polkadot’s development is moving forward with these key milestones:

  1. JAM Protocol Launch (Late 2025) – This update will complete Polkadot 2.0 by introducing a modular design and removing transaction fees.
  2. Full EVM Compatibility (December 2025) – This will allow Ethereum-based apps to run directly on Polkadot without any changes.
  3. Decentralized Stablecoin Launch (Date TBD) – A community-backed stablecoin, supported by DOT, is planned to compete with popular stablecoins like USDT and USDC.

Deep Dive

1. JAM Protocol Launch (Late 2025)

What is it?
The Join-Accumulate Machine (JAM) will replace Polkadot’s current Relay Chain with multiple smaller blockchains running in parallel. This change will remove transaction fees (gas fees) and increase the network’s speed and capacity. Over 38 development teams are working on this upgrade, which aims to make Polkadot a powerful platform for Web3 applications (CoinMarketCap).

Why it matters:

2. Full EVM Compatibility (December 2025)

What is it?
Polkadot will become fully compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) through a system called PolkaVM. This means developers can move their Ethereum apps, built with the Solidity programming language, to Polkadot without rewriting code (LangeriusETH on X).

Why it matters:

3. Decentralized Stablecoin Launch (Date TBD)

What is it?
A new stablecoin backed by DOT tokens is being developed to work across the Polkadot network. The community will help decide how it operates and its rules (CobakOfficial on X).

Why it matters:

Conclusion

Polkadot’s roadmap focuses on improving scalability (with JAM), compatibility with Ethereum (via full EVM support), and building financial tools (through a stablecoin). These upgrades aim to strengthen Polkadot’s position in the Web3 space. However, regulatory challenges, especially around ETFs and stablecoins, remain uncertain factors. The big question is: Will institutional interest through ETFs help Polkadot compete against Ethereum’s growing ecosystem?


What updates are there in the DOT code base?

Polkadot’s software is getting important upgrades focused on improving scalability, cross-chain communication, and tools for developers.

  1. Elastic Scaling & JAM Upgrade (August–December 2025) – Lets Polkadot dynamically allocate computing power and turns it into a powerful blockchain platform.
  2. Polkadot-API v1.15.0 (July 2025) – Adds new tools for easier data access and better data handling.
  3. Runtime-Diff Tool (May 2025) – Helps check for compatibility issues during network upgrades.

Deep Dive

1. Elastic Scaling & JAM Protocol (August–December 2025)

Overview: Elastic Scaling allows Polkadot’s parachains (independent blockchains connected to Polkadot) to rent extra computing resources when needed. The JAM upgrade replaces Polkadot’s core Relay Chain with a modular system that supports Ethereum-style smart contracts.

Technical Details:

What this means: This upgrade is positive for Polkadot because it boosts scalability for decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming, while keeping the ability to work across different blockchains.

2. Polkadot-API v1.15.0 (July 2025)

Overview: This update introduces new tools that let developers access blockchain data more directly and efficiently.

Technical Details:

What this means: This update doesn’t have an immediate impact on Polkadot’s price but makes it easier for developers to create sophisticated decentralized apps (dApps) in the long run.

3. Runtime-Diff Tool (May 2025)

Overview: A tool designed to detect breaking changes when Polkadot’s software is upgraded.

Technical Details:

What this means: This reduces risks related to software upgrades, helping keep the Polkadot ecosystem stable and reliable.

Conclusion

Polkadot is focusing on making its platform more scalable and developer-friendly through modular upgrades and better tools. These improvements support its goal of connecting multiple blockchains, but success depends on how widely these features are adopted. The key question remains: how will Polkadot’s increased transaction capacity perform in real-world use compared to competitors like Ethereum and Solana?


Why did the price of DOT fall?

Polkadot (DOT) dropped 1.5% in the past 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.6%. The main reasons include technical price drops, lower borrowing limits on Binance, and weak interest in altcoins.

  1. Technical Breakdown – DOT fell below important support levels, leading to more selling pressure.
  2. Binance Leverage Changes – Binance lowered borrowing limits for DOT-related assets, causing some traders to sell.
  3. Altcoin Weakness – Bitcoin’s market share increased to 59%, drawing investment away from DOT.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Overview:
DOT’s price fell below a key level at $3.06 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.72. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38.08, indicating the coin is oversold but hasn’t shown signs of a rebound yet.

What this means:
This price drop canceled out short-term positive trends, triggering automatic sell orders and algorithm-driven selling. The 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3.72 now acts as resistance, while the next support level is at $2.92 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

What to watch:
If DOT closes above $3.15 on a daily basis, it could stabilize. However, if it stays below $3.00, the price might fall further to $2.56 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

2. Binance Margin Ratio Cuts (Negative Impact)

Overview:
On October 19, Binance lowered the collateral requirements for DOT-related assets like KSM and XTZ. This means traders can borrow less to trade these assets, forcing some to close their leveraged positions.

What this means:
Lower borrowing limits reduce speculative buying power for DOT, contributing to an 18.6% drop in trading volume during the recent sell-off.

3. Altcoin Sentiment Drain (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market rose to 59%, up 0.5% in the last 24 hours, while the Altcoin Season Index dropped to 28, its lowest since April 2025.

What this means:
Investors are moving money into Bitcoin due to economic uncertainty, reducing the funds flowing into DOT. However, since DOT has underperformed Bitcoin significantly over the past 30 days (-29% vs. -9%), this heavy selling might be nearing its end.

Conclusion

DOT’s recent price drop is driven by technical breakdowns, tighter borrowing limits on Binance, and a general shift away from altcoins. While the coin is oversold and could bounce back, it needs to break above $3.30 to regain upward momentum. Key point to watch: Bitcoin’s price—if BTC falls below $105,000, it could lead to more selling pressure on altcoins like DOT.