Why did the price of DOT go up?

Polkadot (DOT) increased by 2.10% in the last 24 hours, breaking away from its downward trend over the past week (-13.55%) and month (-25.45%). Here’s why:

1. Institutional ETP Listings – 21Shares added Polkadot to Nasdaq Stockholm, making it easier for regulated investors to access.
2. Technical Rebound – Key support levels and oversold signals helped reduce selling pressure around $2.19.
3. Market-Wide Recovery – The overall cryptocurrency market cap rose 3.25%, lifting altcoins like DOT despite ongoing market fear.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional ETP Expansion (Positive for DOT)

On November 25, 21Shares listed six new crypto Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) on Nasdaq Stockholm, including one for Polkadot (ticker: ADOT). These ETPs are backed by actual cryptocurrencies and are designed for European institutional investors who want crypto exposure without managing the coins themselves.

This move doesn’t directly affect U.S. investors since it’s not a U.S. ETF, but it signals growing acceptance among institutions and could improve Polkadot’s trading liquidity. Similar 21Shares products manage around $8 billion in assets, showing strong demand for diversified crypto investments beyond retail traders.

Keep an eye on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision regarding the 21Shares Polkadot ETF, now delayed until November 8, 2025. Approval could lead to significant new investment inflows.

2. Technical Bounce from Key Levels (Mixed Signals)

Polkadot bounced back from a key support level at $2.19, identified by Fibonacci retracement—a common technical analysis tool. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures if an asset is overbought or oversold, was near 35, indicating DOT was close to being oversold and due for a rebound. The $2.32 level acted as short-term support during the day.

However, resistance remains at $2.94, and other indicators like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) suggest that a sustained recovery will need stronger buying momentum. Also, the market depth is low, meaning only 2% of the order book liquidity is available, which can cause bigger price swings with relatively small trades.

3. Altcoin Sentiment Shift (Neutral)

The crypto fear and greed index, which gauges overall market sentiment, is at 18—indicating extreme fear. This often signals a potential buying opportunity for contrarian investors. Bitcoin’s market dominance dropped slightly by 0.61% in 24 hours, suggesting some investors are cautiously moving into altcoins like Polkadot.

DOT’s recent gains are in line with other altcoins like XRP (+6.7%) and Solana (SOL), but the Altcoin Season Index remains low at 24 out of 100, meaning Bitcoin still leads market trends. Because liquidity is thin across many altcoins, including DOT and TON, prices can be more volatile even with small trading volumes.

Conclusion

Polkadot’s recent 24-hour gain reflects opportunistic buying near technical support levels and positive institutional developments. However, broader challenges remain, including a 25.45% drop over the past 30 days and bearish on-chain data.

Key to watch: Can DOT stay above $2.32 and increase trading volume beyond its current 24-hour turnover of 4.2% ($161 million)? Falling below $2.19 could lead to testing new lows in 2025.

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}

What could affect the price of DOT?

Polkadot’s price is balancing between upcoming network improvements and ongoing market challenges.

1. Polkadot 2.0 Upgrades (Positive) – New features like the JAM protocol and flexible scaling could make the network more useful.
2. DOT Supply Cap (Mixed) – Limited supply may help, but inflation is still a concern.
3. Regulatory Delays (Negative) – The SEC’s hold-up on a Polkadot ETF slows down institutional interest.

In-Depth Look

1. Polkadot 2.0 & JAM Protocol (Positive Impact)

What’s Happening:
Polkadot plans a big upgrade in 2025 called the JAM protocol (“Join-Accumulate Machine”). This upgrade combines Polkadot and Ethereum technologies to handle over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) and introduces a pay-as-you-go system for network resources. Since October 2025, Polkadot’s elastic scaling lets parachains (independent blockchains connected to Polkadot) rent extra block space when needed, making the network more efficient.

Why It Matters:
These improvements aim to attract developers by offering faster and cheaper infrastructure, which is important to compete with other blockchains like Solana and Ethereum. If successful, this could increase demand for DOT, the token used to pay for transactions and network services. For example, Kusama (Polkadot’s experimental network) tested 143,000 TPS in 2024, which briefly pushed DOT’s price up by 18% (Polkadot Wiki).

2. Tokenomics Changes & Supply Cap (Mixed Impact)

What’s Happening:
In September 2025, Polkadot’s community voted to cap the total DOT supply at 2.1 billion tokens, with about 1.6 billion currently circulating (Referendum 1710). This move aims to reduce annual inflation from 7.4% to 3.3% by 2026. However, about 120 million new DOT tokens will still be added each year.

Why It Matters:
Limiting supply could help reduce selling pressure over time, but inflation remains relatively high in the short term. Around 55% of DOT is staked (locked up to earn rewards), offering an 11.5% annual yield, which lowers the amount of DOT available for trading. Still, if many holders unstake during market drops, it could lead to increased selling (CoinMarketCap).

3. Regulatory Challenges & ETF Delays (Negative Impact)

What’s Happening:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on approving a Polkadot exchange-traded fund (ETF) from 21Shares until November 2025. This follows similar delays for Ethereum ETFs. Meanwhile, in Europe, some Polkadot investment products like Nasdaq Stockholm’s ADOT have gained modest interest, with $8 billion in assets under management across 21Shares’ offerings.

Why It Matters:
Without ETF approval, Polkadot relies mostly on retail investors, and current market sentiment shows “extreme fear” (Fear & Greed Index at 15/100). Institutional investment through ETFs is important to help DOT recover from a 71% price drop over the past year, but regulatory uncertainty remains a big hurdle (Bitcoin.com).

Conclusion

Polkadot’s future depends on how well it can deliver technical upgrades while navigating broader market and regulatory risks. The $2.45 price level (current price: $2.33) is a key support point—falling below it could cause panic selling, while a successful JAM upgrade might push the price toward $3.21 (based on a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). The big question is: Can Polkadot’s growing ecosystem overcome its inflation challenges? Keep an eye on the SEC’s November decision and Polkadot Hub’s Q4 updates.

What are people saying about DOT?

The Polkadot community is divided between optimism and caution as technical signals face broader market challenges. Here’s what’s happening right now:

1. Key resistance at $4.60 – Buyers hope for a breakout, while sellers warn of a possible pullback.
2. Polkadot 2.0 upgrades – New features like elastic scaling and the JAM protocol are boosting confidence.
3. ETF uncertainty – The SEC has postponed its decision on 21Shares’ spot DOT ETF.

In-Depth Look

1. @ThomasReidBtc: $DOT Breakout Targets $4.25 — Bullish

“After holding steady near $3.80, $DOT is aiming to break out toward $4.10–$4.25. Growing investor interest and strong fundamentals support this move.”
– @ThomasReidBtc (3.5K followers · 12K impressions · August 31, 2025, 05:49 UTC)
See original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for DOT, as traders expect momentum from recent price stability and upcoming upgrades like Polkadot 2.0.

2. @Polkadot: Inflation Drops to 7.4% in 2026 — Neutral

“For what it’s worth, Polkadot inflation today is 7.72%... expected to fall below 5% by 2033.”
– @Polkadot (1.6M followers · 855K impressions · July 15, 2025, 20:08 UTC)
See original post
What this means: Neutral in the long run. Lower inflation means less selling pressure from those staking DOT, which could help stabilize prices. However, inflation remains relatively high in the short term.

3. @johnmorganFL: SEC Delays DOT ETF — Bearish

“Massive Polkadot Rally Ahead? Here’s What’s Driving It” (hinting at ETF delays).
– @johnmorganFL (35.1K followers · 21K impressions · July 23, 2025, 11:51 UTC)
See original post
What this means: Negative short-term outlook. Regulatory delays reduce the chance of big institutional investments for now, though approval could spark a rally in 2026.

Conclusion

Opinions on Polkadot are mixed. Technical traders are optimistic if DOT can break above the $4.60 resistance level, while others remain cautious due to SEC delays and ongoing inflation. Keep an eye on the $4.60 price point and the rollout of Polkadot 2.0’s elastic scaling expected in early 2026 — a successful breakout or upgrade could renew positive momentum.

What is the latest news about DOT?

Polkadot is facing some downward price pressure but is making important upgrades to its network and gaining interest from big financial players. Here’s the latest update:

1. DOT Price Tests Key Support (November 26, 2025) – Technical signs show weakening momentum as DOT stays near $2.45.
2. 21Shares Lists Polkadot ETP on Nasdaq Stockholm (November 25, 2025) – A new exchange-traded product (ETP) backed by DOT is now available for institutional investors.
3. Polkadot Hub Launch Nears (November 25, 2025) – A new system-level parachain for smart contracts is set to launch in December 2025, removing the need for costly auctions.

Deep Dive

1. DOT Price Tests Key Support (November 26, 2025)

Overview:
DOT’s price is moving between $2.45 (support) and $3.00 (resistance). Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32.20 and a bearish MACD crossover suggest the price could drop further if it falls below $2.45. Over the past week, DOT’s price has dropped nearly 13%, reflecting a broader weakness in alternative cryptocurrencies during a time of high market fear.

What this means: The short-term outlook is bearish, meaning prices might continue to fall. However, since the coin is oversold, this could lead to increased price swings. If DOT falls below $2.45 for a sustained period, it might trigger panic selling. On the other hand, if it climbs back above $3.00, it could signal a recovery. (CCN)

2. 21Shares Lists Polkadot ETP on Nasdaq Stockholm (November 25, 2025)

Overview:
21Shares has introduced six new crypto ETPs on Nasdaq Stockholm, including the 21shares Polkadot ETP (ADOT). This product is fully backed by DOT tokens, allowing institutional investors to gain regulated exposure to Polkadot without having to hold the coins directly.

What this means: This listing helps bring Polkadot into the traditional financial world, which could improve liquidity and increase long-term demand. However, regulatory challenges remain, especially in the U.S., where spot ETFs like 21Shares’ are still under review by the SEC. (Bitcoin.com)

3. Polkadot Hub Launch Nears (November 25, 2025)

Overview:
The Polkadot Hub is a new system-level parachain designed for smart contracts, scheduled to launch in December 2025. It aims to make development easier by removing the need for parachain auctions, which can be costly, and by allowing flexible access to block space.

What this means: This upgrade could attract more developers to build on Polkadot by simplifying the process. Along with a fixed supply cap of 2.1 billion DOT, it introduces scarcity and encourages demand based on real use cases. (Yahoo Finance)

Conclusion

Polkadot faces short-term price challenges but is steadily improving its infrastructure to attract developers and institutional investors. While technical charts suggest more downside risk, upcoming upgrades and new regulated products set the stage for a potential recovery. The launch of the Polkadot Hub in December could be a key moment to watch for renewed positive momentum despite broader market challenges.

What is expected in the development of DOT?

Polkadot’s roadmap is focused on improving scalability, ease of use, and growing its ecosystem with these important milestones:

1. Polkadot Hub Launch (Mid-September–October 2025) – A single platform for managing assets and interacting across different blockchains.
2. Elastic Scaling Activation (Late 2025) – Flexible resource allocation to support high-speed decentralized apps (dApps).
3. JAM Protocol Development (2026–2027) – Building a powerful, enterprise-level blockchain system.
4. DOT ETF Decision (November 2025) – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on spot DOT ETF applications from Grayscale and 21Shares.

Deep Dive

1. Polkadot Hub Launch (Mid-September–October 2025)

Overview
The Polkadot Hub will make it easier for users and developers by combining asset management (including DOT, ETH, and stablecoins), staking, governance, and cross-chain bridges into one easy-to-use interface. The launch might be delayed until October 2025 because of the time needed to integrate with exchanges.

What this means
This is positive for DOT because a simpler, unified platform could attract more everyday users and institutions, boosting activity on the network. However, any delay might cause short-term disappointment.

2. Elastic Scaling Activation (Late 2025)

Overview
Elastic Scaling lets parachains (independent blockchains connected to Polkadot) rent multiple processing cores as needed, increasing transaction speeds to 500,000–600,000 transactions per second (TPS). Projects like Hydration and Mythical Games plan to use this for applications that require high performance.

What this means
This is a strong positive because it makes Polkadot a more scalable option compared to Ethereum and Solana. Still, there’s a risk of technical issues when fully launching this feature on the main network.

3. JAM Protocol Development (2026–2027)

Overview
The Join-Accumulate Machine (JAM) will replace Polkadot’s current Relay Chain with a new, modular system based on RISC-V technology, designed for large-scale, enterprise use. Research and development are ongoing, but the mainnet launch won’t happen before 2026.

What this means
This is a neutral to positive long-term development. While JAM could significantly improve Polkadot’s infrastructure, it won’t have an immediate impact on price or adoption.

4. DOT ETF Decision (November 2025)

Overview
The SEC is expected to make a decision in November 2025 on spot DOT ETF applications from Grayscale and 21Shares. If approved, it could bring significant institutional investment similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. If rejected, it might cause short-term market volatility.

What this means
Approval would be very positive, opening the door for more institutional money to flow into DOT. However, regulatory uncertainty remains a key risk factor.

Conclusion

Polkadot’s roadmap balances technical improvements (Elastic Scaling, JAM) with user-friendly products (Polkadot Hub) and important regulatory events (ETF decision). While scalability upgrades could attract more developers, the ETF ruling is the near-term event to watch closely.

Will Polkadot’s infrastructure upgrades help it outpace competitors like Cosmos and Ethereum in the race to lead Web3?

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}

What updates are there in the DOT code base?

Polkadot’s technology is evolving with improvements in scaling, smart contracts, and infrastructure upgrades.

1. Elastic Scaling Launch (October 24, 2025) – The final Polkadot 2.0 upgrade that allows flexible use of network resources.
2. Smart Contract Backends (December 2025) – Native support for Ethereum-compatible and new virtual machines to deploy decentralized apps (dApps).
3. Asset Hub Migration (November 2025) – Moving key assets like DOT and USDC to a centralized hub to improve liquidity and transfers.
4. Offline API Integration (May 2025) – New features for signing transactions offline and faster data syncing.

Deep Dive

1. Elastic Scaling Launch (October 24, 2025)

What it is: Elastic Scaling is part of Polkadot 2.0 and lets parachains (independent blockchains connected to Polkadot) rent block space dynamically. This means they can increase or decrease their usage based on demand, making the network more efficient and cost-effective.

This upgrade includes Async Backing, which boosts throughput by processing blocks in parallel (up to 10 times faster), and Agile Coretime, which allows parachains to lease block space for up to 28 days. Developers can now scale resources when needed, saving money during quieter times.

Why it matters: This is good news for DOT holders because it makes it easier and cheaper to build high-performance dApps like decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and games. Projects like Hydration and Mythical Games are already using this to create scalable liquidity pools.
(Polkadot)

2. Smart Contract Backends (December 2025)

What it is: Polkadot is adding native support for two types of smart contract environments: the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which runs Solidity contracts, and the new PVM for advanced computing.

Kusama, Polkadot’s experimental network, tested this upgrade in October 2025 and achieved 143,000 transactions per second at 23% network load. When launched on Polkadot’s main network, developers will be able to deploy existing Ethereum contracts without changes or use PVM for better performance.

Why it matters: This is somewhat positive for DOT because it opens the door for Ethereum developers to build on Polkadot, increasing the ecosystem’s appeal. However, it also introduces new technical challenges. Projects like Ethena and Pendle, which need to work across different blockchains, could benefit from this upgrade.
(Langerius)

3. Asset Hub Migration (November 2025)

What it is: Polkadot moved key assets like DOT and the stablecoin USDC from the Relay Chain to a new Asset Hub. This centralizes asset management and improves liquidity.

The migration was completed on November 10, 2025, after 18 hours of downtime. It consolidated over $200 million in USDC liquidity for DeFi applications and made cross-chain transfers easier through Polkadot’s XCM protocol.

Why it matters: This is positive for DOT because it simplifies asset management and reduces fragmentation across the network. Popular exchanges like Bitbank and SafePal now support the Asset Hub, making it easier for users to stake DOT and swap tokens.
(Bitbank)

4. Offline API Integration (May 2025)

What it is: The Polkadot-API version 1.10 introduced features that allow developers to sign transactions offline and cache metadata to reduce data usage.

This means developers can create and sign transactions without needing a constant internet connection to the network, and cached metadata reduces the amount of data needed during initial syncing by about 500 KiB.

Why it matters: This is good for DOT because it improves the reliability of dApps in areas with poor internet connectivity and lowers reliance on centralized nodes.
(Polkadot Forum)

Conclusion

Polkadot is focusing on making its network more scalable, flexible for developers, and user-friendly. With these upgrades nearing completion, the big question is whether DOT’s ecosystem can use these improvements to bounce back from its 40% drop in price this year.