What could affect the price of TON?
Toncoin is currently caught between strong institutional interest and unpredictable price swings caused by large holders.
- Institutional Treasury Moves – A $558 million fund was raised to buy and stake Toncoin, which reduces the available supply and boosts confidence among big investors.
- Regulatory Risks – Dubai fined the TON DLT Foundation, showing that regulatory challenges remain a concern.
- Telegram Integration – Toncoin’s use within Telegram’s 1 billion+ user base offers significant growth potential.
Deep Dive
1. Institutional Accumulation & Treasury Strategy (Positive Outlook)
Overview:
A company listed on Nasdaq, called TON Strategy Co., raised $558 million to buy and stake Toncoin. Their goal is to hold about 5% of all Toncoin in circulation. This approach is similar to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin but adds the benefit of earning staking rewards of around 3-5% annually. More than 110 institutional investors joined in, showing strong confidence in Toncoin’s connection to Telegram’s payment system.
What this means:
When big investors buy and lock up Toncoin, it reduces how much is available on the market, which can push prices higher. Staking also locks up coins, helping to stabilize the price. If this strategy works well, Toncoin could become a trusted asset for institutions, attracting even more investment (CoinDesk).
2. Regulatory Crackdowns & Compliance (Challenges Ahead)
Overview:
In 2025, Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) fined the TON DLT Foundation for operating without a license. Other projects linked to Toncoin, like Hokk Finance, faced similar penalties. This highlights ongoing regulatory challenges in important markets.
What this means:
Fines and restrictions could slow down the growth of Toncoin’s ecosystem. Uncertainty about regulations might discourage developers and investors, especially in places like the UAE, which is key for crypto adoption (Cointelegraph).
3. Telegram’s Ecosystem Expansion (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Toncoin is the default blockchain for Telegram’s massive user base of over 1 billion people. It supports in-app payments, advertising, and NFT features. Projects such as STON.fi (a decentralized exchange) and Omniston (a liquidity protocol) are boosting decentralized finance (DeFi) activity. Toncoin’s daily transactions even tripled during recent airdrops.
What this means:
Widespread use through Telegram could increase demand for Toncoin as a utility token. However, technical challenges like network outages in June 2025 and competition from blockchains like Solana and Ethereum could limit growth unless improvements like sharding are implemented to increase capacity (Crypto News).
Conclusion
Toncoin’s future price depends on how well it balances growing institutional interest with regulatory challenges and technical performance. Keep an eye on TON Strategy Co.’s staking activity and Telegram’s user engagement. If Toncoin breaks above $3.50, it could signal strong upward momentum, but regulatory issues might test support around $2.60. The big question is whether Toncoin can use Telegram’s huge audience to outpace competitors.
What are people saying about TON?
Toncoin’s buzz swings between excitement fueled by Telegram users and concerns driven by large holders. Here’s what’s trending:
- Traders watch for a $3.75 breakout amid positive price patterns
- Telegram’s 1 billion users seen as the key to Toncoin’s growth
- Whales control 68% of the supply – raising risks of price swings
- Coinbase Ventures backing sparks interest from big investors
Deep Dive
1. @ali_charts: Symmetrical Triangle Points to 50% Price Move
"Toncoin $TON is trading within a triangle pattern, signaling a possible 50% price change!"
– @ali_charts (289k followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-09-02 07:58 UTC)
View original post
What this means: If Toncoin breaks above resistance near $3.70, it could see strong gains. But if it falls below support at $2.60, prices might drop. This pattern suggests a big move is coming soon.
2. @CobakOfficial: Telegram Integration Drives 24% Monthly Growth
"Despite overall market declines, Toncoin gained 4% in a day, reaching $3.61"
– @CobakOfficial (132k followers · 850k impressions · 2025-08-02 19:00 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Toncoin benefits from being Telegram’s native blockchain, which creates optimism. However, long-term success depends on more people using apps built on Toncoin.
3. CoinMarketCap Post: Large Holders Control Most of Toncoin
"68% of Toncoin supply is held by whales, with less than 20% held by long-term investors"
– CoinMarketCap Community (Verified · 2025-06-27 01:43 UTC)
What this means: When a few holders control most of the coins, there’s a risk they could sell large amounts, causing price drops—especially if prices fall below $2.80.
4. @ton_blockchain: Coinbase Ventures Supports Toncoin
"Coinbase Ventures’ investment confirms confidence in Toncoin’s potential for widespread use"
– @ton_blockchain (Official account · 2025-08-11 13:37 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Big investors like Coinbase Ventures and Sequoia/Benchmark (which invested $400 million) could help stabilize Toncoin’s price despite uncertainty among smaller traders.
Conclusion
The overall outlook for Toncoin is cautiously optimistic. Telegram’s huge user base offers strong growth potential, but the large concentration of coins among whales adds risk. Technical indicators suggest Toncoin could rise to $3.75–$4.30, but the $2.70–$2.80 price range is a key support level to watch. Also, keep an eye on Toncoin’s daily active addresses—currently around 37,000—as a sign of real user adoption beyond just trading.
What is the latest news about TON?
Here’s the latest update on Toncoin (TON) as it deals with regulatory challenges and ecosystem growth:
- Dubai Fines TON DLT Foundation (October 7, 2025) – Dubai’s regulator penalizes a TON-related organization for operating without a license.
- STON.fi Advances TON DeFi (October 7, 2025) – A new protocol improves TON’s decentralized finance (DeFi) capabilities and plans to connect with other blockchains.
- $103 Million in TON Tokens Unlocked (October 6, 2025) – A large amount of TON tokens will become available soon, raising concerns about market impact.
In-Depth Look
1. Dubai Fines TON DLT Foundation (October 7, 2025)
What happened:
Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) fined the TON DLT Foundation along with 18 other companies for operating without the proper licenses and breaking marketing rules. This is part of the UAE’s effort to create clear rules for crypto businesses and crack down on those who don’t follow them.
Why it matters:
This fine is a short-term setback for TON because it shows there are risks when operating in important markets like Dubai. However, the UAE is also encouraging licensed companies like BitGo and Bybit to operate there, which could help TON projects that follow the rules gain credibility over time.
(Sources: CoinJournal, Cointelegraph)
2. STON.fi Advances TON DeFi (October 7, 2025)
What happened:
At the TOKEN2049 conference, STON.fi’s Chief Marketing Officer shared updates on TON’s DeFi ecosystem. They introduced the Omniston protocol, which helps combine liquidity from different sources, and announced plans to connect TON with other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana. Over 40 projects are already using Omniston.
Why it matters:
This development is positive for TON because better liquidity and the ability to work across different blockchains make it easier for developers and users to participate. It also supports Telegram’s goal of making TON accessible to a wide audience.
(Source: Crypto.News)
3. $103 Million in TON Tokens Unlocked (October 6, 2025)
What happened:
About 102.89 million TON tokens, worth roughly $103 million at the current price of $2.75, will become available between October 19 and November 2, 2025. Large holders, or “whales,” control 68% of the total supply.
Why it matters:
This token unlock could cause price swings because many holders might sell their tokens. Currently, only 9% of TON holders are making a profit, which could increase selling pressure. However, TON’s integration with Telegram’s user base of over 1 billion people might help balance this if demand grows accordingly.
(Source: Cointribune)
Conclusion
Toncoin is navigating a mixed environment. Regulatory actions in Dubai and upcoming token unlocks could lead to short-term price volatility. On the other hand, innovations in DeFi and Telegram’s massive user base offer strong potential for growth. The question remains whether institutional efforts, like those from AlphaTON Capital, will help counterbalance selling pressure from large holders.
What is expected in the development of TON?
Toncoin’s roadmap is centered on growing its ecosystem, upgrading technology, and bringing in institutional support.
- Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025) – Faster transactions and improved token features.
- TON-Ethereum Bridge Replacement (2026) – New cross-chain solutions using LayerZero and Stargate.
- Institutional Treasury Expansion (2025–2026) – Raising over $400 million to strengthen liquidity.
- AWS Blockchain Integration (Q4 2025) – Making TON’s blockchain data available on Amazon Web Services.
Deep Dive
1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (Q4 2025)
What it is:
Jetton 2.0 will make token transfers up to three times faster and improve token standards, especially for decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming applications. This comes after a 113% month-over-month increase in memecoin trading on TON (Gabrelyanov/X).
Why it matters:
Faster transactions can attract more developers and users to TON’s platform, which is a positive sign. However, if adoption doesn’t keep up with these upgrades, the benefits might be limited.
2. TON-Ethereum Bridge Replacement (2026)
What it is:
The old Toncoin Bridge, which was shut down in May 2025, will be replaced by new partnerships with LayerZero and Stargate. These solutions aim to make transferring assets between TON and Ethereum smoother and more scalable (Cryptotimes).
Why it matters:
This change reduces dependence on centralized systems, which is good for security and decentralization. Still, the new bridges will compete with other well-established cross-chain technologies.
3. Institutional Treasury Expansion (2025–2026)
What it is:
The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital are working to raise over $400 million to build a treasury holding about 5% of all Toncoin. This follows a $558 million private funding round in August 2025 (Assemble/X).
Why it matters:
Having a large treasury can help stabilize Toncoin’s price and support ecosystem growth. On the downside, if too much Toncoin is controlled by a few large holders, it could raise concerns about centralization.
4. AWS Blockchain Integration (Q4 2025)
What it is:
TON’s blockchain data will be made publicly available on Amazon Web Services (AWS), making it easier for developers and businesses to access and build on TON (Gabrelyanov/X).
Why it matters:
Integration with AWS is a strong signal for growth, as it usually leads to more developer activity and greater interest from institutions.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s roadmap combines important technical improvements like Jetton 2.0 and new cross-chain bridges with strategic moves such as AWS integration and building a large institutional treasury. These steps could boost adoption, but success will depend on how well they are executed amid regulatory challenges and competition. The big question remains: can TON leverage its technology and Telegram’s large user base to create lasting value?
What updates are there in the TON code base?
Toncoin’s latest updates focus on improving developer tools, boosting security, and expanding its ecosystem.
- FunC Language Upgrade (September 12, 2025) – Makes smart contract coding easier, encouraging more developers to build on TON.
- AWS Blockchain Integration (September 10, 2025) – TON blockchain data is now available through Amazon Web Services (AWS), helping developers and businesses access and analyze TON data.
- TVM Vulnerability Patch (July 21, 2025) – Fixed a critical security issue that could have caused network crashes.
Deep Dive
1. FunC Language Upgrade (September 12, 2025)
What happened: TON’s smart contract programming language, FunC, got a major update to make it simpler and more efficient. It now competes better with popular languages like Solidity (used by Ethereum) and Rust (used by Solana).
This upgrade means developers can write decentralized applications (dApps) with less code and better tools for finding and fixing errors. The goal is to make it easier for developers to create apps on TON, helping bring Telegram’s huge user base (over 1 billion people) into the world of Web3.
Why it matters: Easier development tools usually lead to more projects and users joining the network, which is good news for Toncoin’s growth. (Source)
2. AWS Public Blockchain Integration (September 10, 2025)
What happened: TON’s blockchain data is now part of AWS’s public dataset offerings. This means developers and companies can easily access TON’s transaction and wallet data through AWS’s powerful cloud platform.
This integration brings enterprise-level support and makes it simpler to analyze TON’s blockchain activity, which can help build better tools and services.
Why it matters: While this doesn’t directly improve TON’s network speed or security, it increases transparency and makes TON more attractive to businesses and institutional users. (Source)
3. TVM Vulnerability Patch (July 21, 2025)
What happened: A serious security flaw in TON’s Virtual Machine (TVM) was fixed. This bug could have allowed malicious smart contracts to crash the network.
The issue was a “null-pointer dereference” in a specific instruction, discovered by the security firm TonBit. The fix was applied before TON’s major Global Version 11 update.
Why it matters: Fixing this vulnerability makes the TON network safer for developers and users, which is essential for long-term trust and adoption. (Source)
Conclusion
These updates show TON’s commitment to making development easier, improving security, and working with big tech like AWS. The FunC upgrade and security patch address immediate technical needs, while the AWS integration points to plans for future growth and wider adoption.
What to watch: Will these improvements lead to more dApps and attract bigger institutional players by 2026?