Why did the price of TON fall?

Toncoin (TON) dropped 0.53% to $2.14 in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 0.26%. Three main reasons explain this dip:

1. Whale Control Risks – Large holders own 68% of TON, which can cause price swings
2. Technical Weakness – Price is stuck below a key $2.15 level with bearish signals
3. Altcoin Pressure – Bitcoin’s market share rose to 59.1%, pulling money away from altcoins like TON

In-Depth Look

1. Whale Influence and Volatility (Negative)

More than two-thirds of TON’s supply is held by a small number of large investors, often called whales (CoinMarketCap). This concentration means if whales decide to sell, it can cause big price drops because smaller holders aren’t ready to buy in large amounts.

This dynamic contributed to TON’s sharp 65% fall from its all-time high of $8.20, shaking investor confidence.

2. Technical Downtrend (Negative)

TON’s price is currently below important moving averages: the 7-day average at $2.16 and the 30-day average at $2.46. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 35.7, indicating downward momentum but not yet oversold.

This suggests the price may continue to fall unless it breaks above the $2.15 level. Support might come around $2.04 and $1.78, based on Fibonacci retracement levels, where buyers could step in.

3. Altcoin Liquidity Challenges (Mixed)

Bitcoin’s dominance in the market increased to 59.1% over the past day, while overall crypto trading volume dropped by nearly 38% (CoinMarketCap).

This means investors are favoring Bitcoin during uncertain times, which reduces the money flowing into altcoins like TON. However, TON’s integration with Telegram offers practical uses that could help it stay relevant beyond short-term market shifts.

Conclusion

TON’s recent price drop is due to whale selling pressure, technical weakness, and a general market trend favoring Bitcoin over altcoins. The $2.04 level may provide short-term support, but regaining $2.36 is important to signal a potential trend reversal.

What to watch: Will TON stay above its 30-day low of $2.05 as Bitcoin’s dominance stabilizes?

What is expected in the development of TON?

Toncoin’s plan focuses on growing its ecosystem, improving technology, and attracting big financial institutions.

1. Strategic Treasury Initiative (2025) – A $400 million fund to control supply and increase liquidity.
2. Telegram Wallet Expansion (2025) – Full U.S. rollout for over 87 million Telegram users.
3. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (2025) – Transfers that are three times faster and lower fees.
4. TON Strategy Co. Partnerships (2026) – Working with major traditional finance firms like BlackRock.

Deep Dive

1. Strategic Treasury Initiative (2025)

Overview: The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital are raising $400 million to create a crypto treasury company. This company will hold a large amount of Toncoin to reduce the number of coins available on the market and treat Toncoin as a reserve asset (Bloomberg). This approach is similar to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin but adds rewards for holding Toncoin long-term.
What this means: This is positive for Toncoin because fewer coins in circulation can help stabilize prices. However, there are risks like regulatory challenges that could affect the plan’s success.

2. Telegram Wallet Expansion (2025)

Overview: Telegram’s TON Wallet will be available to over 87 million users in the U.S., allowing them to buy Toncoin directly using Apple Pay or Google Pay and manage NFTs (digital collectibles) easily (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: This could be good for Toncoin if many Telegram users start using the wallet. It has the potential to grow like WeChat Pay did in the Web3 space, but adoption is not guaranteed.

3. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (2025)

Overview: Jetton 2.0 will launch in late 2025, offering faster token transfers—three times quicker than before—and lower fees. It will also integrate with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to improve access to blockchain data (X).
What this means: This upgrade should encourage more developers and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects to build on Toncoin. Still, Toncoin faces strong competition from other blockchains like Solana and Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions.

4. TON Strategy Co. Partnerships (2026)

Overview: TON Strategy Co., led by former TON Foundation President Manuel Stotz, plans to partner with big financial firms such as BlackRock and Citadel. The goal is to create regulated products that connect traditional finance (TradFi) with crypto (X).
What this means: This could bring more liquidity and credibility to Toncoin over the long term. However, success depends on clear regulations and positive market conditions.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s roadmap combines technical improvements (Jetton 2.0), user growth through Telegram, and institutional partnerships backed by a $400 million treasury fund. While the outlook is mostly positive, risks remain, including price swings caused by large holders (who control 65% of the supply) and regulatory uncertainty. The big question is whether Toncoin’s focus on Telegram’s massive user base will help it compete with established blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}

What updates are there in the TON code base?

Toncoin’s latest software updates focus on making the network faster, safer, and better at working with other blockchains.

1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025) – Token transfers are now three times faster.
2. TVM Security Patch (July 21, 2025) – Fixed a serious security issue in the TON Virtual Machine.
3. Network Stability Fix (June 1, 2025) – Quickly resolved a 40-minute outage affecting block creation.

Deep Dive

1. Jetton 2.0 Upgrade (September 10, 2025)

What happened: Jetton 2.0 is the updated token standard for Toncoin. This upgrade makes token transfers three times faster, which is especially helpful for decentralized finance (DeFi) apps and NFTs. It improves how the system calculates fees (called gas) and reduces delays when moving tokens between wallets. This is important for platforms like STON.fi and DeDust, which handle many quick trades. The upgrade supports TON’s goal to serve over a billion Telegram users.
Why it matters: Faster and cheaper token transfers make Toncoin more attractive to developers and users, potentially increasing activity and value. (Source)

2. TVM Security Patch (July 21, 2025)

What happened: A security company named TonBit found and fixed a serious flaw in the TON Virtual Machine (TVM), which runs smart contracts. The flaw could have caused network nodes to crash by overloading them with bad smart contracts. The fix added stricter limits on resource use and better checks on contract code.
Why it matters: While this patch prevents possible network problems, it also shows that technical risks still exist. However, the quick fix demonstrates that the TON development team is responsive and committed to security. (Source)

3. Network Stability Fix (June 1, 2025)

What happened: The TON network experienced a 40-minute outage where new blocks weren’t created. This was caused by a queue overflow in the masterchain’s processing system. A hotfix was quickly deployed to the main validators to fix the issue. No funds were lost during this time.
Why it matters: Short term, outages can reduce user trust in the network. But in the long run, this incident highlights areas where TON needs to improve its ability to handle heavy traffic, such as through sharding (splitting the network to work more efficiently). Validators now need to update their software to avoid future problems. (Source)

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent updates show a clear focus on improving speed (Jetton 2.0), security (TVM patch), and reliability (network fix). While some technical challenges remain, these proactive improvements suggest the network is maturing. The big question is whether TON’s ongoing innovations can keep up with the market’s ups and downs, especially given the influence of large holders.

What could affect the price of TON?

Toncoin’s future depends largely on Telegram’s involvement and the behavior of large holders (“whales”).

1. Institutional treasury buildup – $780 million raised to lock up 5% of Toncoin’s supply, which reduces selling pressure (positive sign).
2. Telegram integration risks – Regulatory challenges and how quickly users adopt crypto features could affect sentiment (mixed outlook).
3. Whale concentration – 68% of Toncoin is held by a few large wallets, which could cause price swings (negative factor).

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Treasury Strategy (Positive Impact)

What’s happening: The TON Foundation and its partners have raised $780 million to buy about 5% of all Toncoin tokens. These tokens are staked, meaning they’re locked up to earn rewards (3–5% annual returns) instead of being sold on the market (Toknex_xyz). This approach is similar to what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin but adds steady income through staking.

Why it matters: By locking up tokens, the available supply decreases, which can help balance out inflation (about 0.6% per year) and create steady demand. This could stabilize Toncoin’s price and attract more traditional investors interested in Telegram’s crypto ecosystem.

2. Telegram’s Regulatory Tightrope (Mixed Impact)

What’s happening: Telegram’s massive user base (over 1 billion) is key to Toncoin’s growth, enabling features like in-app payments and NFTs. However, Telegram has faced regulatory issues before, including clashes with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) during Toncoin’s 2020 launch and recent setbacks like the UAE denying golden visa benefits linked to crypto (CCN).

Why it matters: If Telegram integrates Toncoin more deeply—through ads, subscriptions, or payments—it could boost Toncoin’s usefulness. But regulatory hurdles might slow down adoption, and Toncoin’s price tends to react strongly to news about Telegram’s crypto plans, as seen when it dropped 10% after the UAE announcement.

3. Whale-Driven Volatility (Negative Impact)

What’s happening: Large holders control over 68% of Toncoin’s supply, but only about 20% of tokens are held long-term. The price has dropped 65% from its all-time high, partly due to early investors selling profits and weak interest from everyday users after initial excitement faded (CoinMarketCap).

Why it matters: When so much supply is controlled by a few, the market is vulnerable to big sell-offs, which can cause sharp price drops. For Toncoin to recover and grow steadily, it needs wider distribution—such as through staking pools—and more active decentralized apps (dApps) to reduce the influence of whales.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s outlook depends on balancing strong institutional support with regulatory challenges and the risks posed by concentrated ownership. While treasury strategies and Telegram’s large user base offer growth potential, regulatory setbacks or major whale sell-offs could keep prices down. The key question is: Can Toncoin’s staking rewards and expanding ecosystem overcome the risks of centralization? Keep an eye on the $1.78 price support level and Telegram’s upcoming crypto product launches.

What are people saying about TON?

Toncoin’s community is divided between hopeful traders spotting bullish patterns and concerns over large holders, known as whales, who control much of the supply. Meanwhile, Telegram’s ongoing involvement adds another layer of interest. Here’s the latest:

1. Traders are targeting $5 as optimism grows based on price charts
2. Whales hold 68% of Toncoin, raising worries about price swings
3. Updates in the Telegram ecosystem support long-term growth potential

Deep Dive

1. @ali_charts: Price consolidation signals a possible 50% jump — bullish

"Toncoin $TON is forming a triangle pattern, hinting at a potential 50% price increase!"
– @ali_charts (189K followers · 42K impressions · 2025-09-02 07:58 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for Toncoin. When prices move within a symmetrical triangle, it often leads to a strong breakout. If Toncoin’s price closes above $3.70, a key resistance level from August 2025, it could confirm this upward move.

2. CoinMarketCap Community: Large holders dominate, raising volatility concerns — bearish

"Whales control more than 68% of Toncoin’s supply, increasing the risk of big price swings."
– CoinMarketCap analysis (2.1M impressions · 2025-06-27 01:43 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a warning sign. When a few holders control most of the supply, they can influence the market by selling large amounts, which can cause sharp price drops. Also, only 20% of holders have kept Toncoin for the long term, indicating limited steady demand.

3. @gabrelyanov: Telegram ecosystem upgrades boost optimism — bullish

"Toncoin is now available on popular platforms like Gemini and Robinhood. Plus, Jetton 2.0 technology speeds up transfers by 3 times."
– @gabrelyanov (86K followers · 28K impressions · 2025-09-10 16:23 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is encouraging news. Being listed on major exchanges makes Toncoin easier to buy and sell, which can attract more users. The faster transfer technology and integration with Amazon Web Services (AWS) blockchain data show growing interest from businesses.

Conclusion

Opinions on Toncoin are mixed. Technical traders see potential for a strong price breakout, but data on ownership shows risks due to whale dominance. However, Telegram’s expanding ecosystem, with over 1 billion users, could balance these risks by driving wider adoption. Keep an eye on the $2.50–$2.80 price range, which has historically been a key support zone triggering major rallies in 2025. The question remains: will the current downward price channel hold the key to Toncoin’s next big move?

What is the latest news about TON?

Toncoin is gaining momentum with strong institutional support and important upgrades in its ecosystem. Here’s what’s new:

1. Coinbase Ventures Becomes a Holder (September 10, 2025) – A major venture capital firm’s involvement shows growing confidence in Toncoin’s growth through Telegram.
2. Toncoin Now Available on Gemini & Robinhood (September 10, 2025) – More U.S. investors can now buy and sell Toncoin, increasing its market visibility and liquidity.
3. $558 Million Treasury Fund Launched (September 13, 2025) – A new publicly traded company will hold 5% of Toncoin’s supply, similar to how Bitcoin treasuries operate.

Deep Dive

1. Coinbase Ventures Becomes a Holder (September 10, 2025)

Overview:
Coinbase Ventures revealed it owns an undisclosed amount of Toncoin, joining other big investors like Sequoia, Benchmark, and Ribbit Capital. This supports Toncoin’s strategy to use Telegram’s 1 billion+ users for crypto adoption through built-in wallets, payments, and decentralized finance (DeFi) tools.

What this means:
This is a positive sign for Toncoin, as institutional backing adds credibility and may attract more investments. However, since a few large holders control 68% of the supply, price swings could still happen. (TON Foundation)

2. Toncoin Now Available on Gemini & Robinhood (September 10, 2025)

Overview:
Gemini and Robinhood, two popular U.S. trading platforms, have added Toncoin trading pairs. This follows Amazon Web Services (AWS) integrating Toncoin into its blockchain data tools, making it easier for developers to build on the network.

What this means:
This development is generally positive, as it improves liquidity and access. However, Toncoin’s price dropped about 5% after the announcement, a common “sell the news” reaction. Traders are watching the $2.80 to $3.20 price range for signs of stability. (Gabriel Leynov)

3. $558 Million Treasury Fund Launched (September 13, 2025)

Overview:
TON Strategy Co., formerly Verb Technology, raised $558 million to buy 5% of Toncoin’s circulating supply. The company aims to operate as a regulated treasury fund and will stake its holdings to earn additional income. Kingsway Capital is backing this effort.

What this means:
This is a positive long-term development because locking up a significant portion of Toncoin could reduce supply and help stabilize prices. In the short term, Toncoin faces resistance around $3.50 after dropping 32% so far this year. (Toknex)

Conclusion

Toncoin is making important progress with strong institutional support and improved infrastructure, signaling growing maturity. However, its price still depends on overall market trends and the actions of large holders. With Telegram’s massive user base as a key advantage, Toncoin’s challenge is turning casual users into active participants before competitors like Solana or Ethereum gain more ground.