What could affect the price of TON?

Toncoin’s price is facing mixed influences from Telegram’s growing ecosystem, technical challenges, and uncertain regulations.

1. Telegram Integration – Launching a U.S. wallet could encourage adoption among Telegram’s 950 million+ users.
2. Technical Breakdown – Price fell below a key support level at $1.78, which may lead to further declines.
3. Regulatory Uncertainty – Ongoing U.S. crypto law discussions and large holders create volatility risks.

Deep Dive

1. Telegram Ecosystem Expansion (Positive Outlook)

Overview: In January 2026, Telegram introduced a TON wallet for U.S. users, allowing crypto payments and swaps directly within the app. TON is now the only blockchain used for Telegram Mini Apps, requiring developers to connect through TON Connect. Upcoming updates include Bitcoin compatibility (called TON Teleport) and decentralized storage, expected in early 2026.

What this means: Closer integration with Telegram could speed up Toncoin adoption among its massive user base, increasing its use for payments and rewards. Past events, like the Hamster Kombat airdrop, doubled network activity, showing that well-executed expansions can boost demand.

2. Technical Support Failure (Negative Outlook)

Overview: On January 9, 2026, Toncoin’s price dropped below a key support level at $1.78, with trading volume rising 33%, indicating a technical breakdown. The next support level is at $1.76. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 45, but large holders (whales) control 68% of the supply, which increases the risk of a sell-off.

What this means: If Toncoin falls below $1.76, it could trigger a wave of forced selling, pushing the price down to the next support at $1.50. Similar patterns in tokens with concentrated ownership have led to extended price drops, such as a 12.3% decline over 30 days.

3. Regulatory Uncertainty (Mixed Outlook)

Overview: U.S. lawmakers are debating new crypto market regulations that could affect Toncoin’s compliance. At the same time, large holders (top 100 addresses) control over half the supply, contributing to price swings.

What this means: Clearer regulations could attract institutional investors, but delays or strict rules might slow growth. The dominance of large holders means big sell orders could cause sharp price moves, especially during market stress.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s short-term price depends on maintaining support at $1.76 while Telegram’s user adoption grows. In the long run, regulatory clarity and successful ecosystem development will shape its potential. Keep an eye on daily active wallets to see if Toncoin can turn Telegram’s large user base into steady demand.

What are people saying about TON?

The conversation around Toncoin mixes cautious optimism with interesting technical signals. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Positive technical outlook: Experts expect Toncoin to reach between $2.15 and $2.50 by late 2025.
2. Telegram’s influence: Launching a U.S. wallet and exclusive Mini Apps could boost Toncoin’s adoption.
3. Quiet buying activity: Traders notice subtle signs of steady price increases.

Deep Dive

1. @bpaynews: $2.30 Breakout Expected 🚀

“Toncoin’s price shows strong momentum aiming for $2.30 within 30 days, but a high RSI of 71.64 suggests it might pause near $1.89 before moving higher.”
– @bpaynews (2K followers · 755K impressions · Jan 5, 2026)
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What this means: Toncoin looks set for growth in the mid-term, but the high RSI (a measure of buying pressure) indicates a possible short-term pause or slight drop before continuing upward.

2. @jay_jaura: Telegram’s U.S. Strategy 💼

“Telegram’s new self-custody TON wallet for over 950 million users and exclusive Mini Apps could integrate Toncoin deeper into Web3, aiming for 500 million users by 2028.”
– @jay_jaura (1.3K followers · 10.3K impressions · Jan 6, 2026)
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What this means: Telegram’s involvement is a strong positive for Toncoin’s future, but low decentralized finance (DeFi) activity and concentration of large holders (whales) present some risks.

3. @TonTraderCom: Quiet Buying Signals 🕵️‍♂️

“Toncoin is quietly trending upward – making higher highs and lows, with small dips quickly bought. Key levels to watch: $1.70 (bullish breakout) and $1.50 (support test).”
– @TonTraderCom (10.2K followers · 58 impressions · Dec 27, 2025)
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What this means: The technical setup is cautiously positive. The $1.70 level is important—breaking above it could confirm the uptrend, while strong buying near $1.50 shows confidence among traders.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook for Toncoin is cautiously optimistic, supported by Telegram’s ecosystem developments and positive technical signs. However, low DeFi activity and broader market uncertainties keep some risks in play. Keep an eye on the $1.70 resistance level—a clear move above it could confirm the steady upward trend, while failure to break it might lead to retesting December’s $1.49 low.

What is the latest news about TON?

Toncoin is facing mixed signals: growth in U.S. wallet users is boosting adoption, but recent technical challenges are putting downward pressure on prices.

1. Telegram Wallet Launches in the U.S. (January 6, 2026) – Telegram introduced a self-managed TON wallet for its 950 million+ users, allowing in-app cryptocurrency swaps and payments.
2. Telegram Sells TON Tokens (January 8, 2026) – To avoid centralizing too much control, Telegram sold about 10% of the circulating TON supply, balancing growth with decentralization.
3. Price Drop and Technical Breakdown (January 9, 2026) – TON’s price fell 4%, breaking a key support level at $1.79 amid heavy selling volume.

In-Depth Look

1. Telegram Wallet Launches in the U.S. (January 6, 2026)

What happened: Telegram rolled out a self-custodial TON wallet for users in the U.S., integrating features like crypto swaps, storage, and payments right inside the app. TON is now the exclusive blockchain for Telegram’s Mini Apps, meaning developers must move their features to TON.
Why it matters: This is a big positive for Toncoin because it greatly increases its real-world use and brings many new users into the ecosystem. However, the decentralized finance (DeFi) activity on TON is still relatively small (between $85 million and $150 million), and a few large holders (“whales”) control a significant portion of the tokens, which could be risky.
(jabir Tukur jaura)

2. Telegram Sells TON Tokens (January 8, 2026)

What happened: Telegram sold about 10% of TON’s circulating supply, worth over $450 million, through planned sales to long-term investors. This helps fund Telegram’s operations while keeping its own holdings around 10% to avoid too much control.
Why it matters: This move is neutral for Toncoin’s outlook. It supports decentralization, which is good for the network’s health, but the sales add selling pressure that could affect prices in the short term. It shows Telegram’s commitment to a balanced ecosystem but might cause some short-term uncertainty.
(CoinMarketCap)

3. Price Drop and Technical Breakdown (January 9, 2026)

What happened: Toncoin’s price dropped 4% to $1.76, breaking below important support levels at $1.79 and $1.78 on high trading volume (2.14 million TON). This underperformed the broader crypto market. No clear fundamental reason was found, but the high volume suggests big investors or institutions were selling.
Why it matters: This is a short-term negative sign, showing technical weakness and selling pressure. If the $1.76 support level doesn’t hold, Toncoin could fall further to between $1.70 and $1.75. However, upcoming network improvements, like tests reaching 104,715 transactions per second (TPS), could help stabilize prices over time.
(CoinDesk)

Conclusion

Toncoin’s future depends on growing its user base in the U.S. through Telegram while managing technical challenges. The big question is whether upcoming upgrades like TON Teleport, expected mid-2026, can reduce price swings caused by large holders and support steady growth.

What is expected in the development of TON?

Toncoin’s development is moving forward with these key milestones:

1. TON Teleport Bridge (Mid-2026) – Enables secure, trustless transfers between Bitcoin and TON for decentralized finance (DeFi).
2. TON Storage Launch (Q1 2026) – A decentralized file-sharing system built into Telegram.
3. Layer-2 Payment Network (2026) – Fast, low-cost payments designed for Telegram’s 950 million+ users.
4. Institutional Treasury Partnerships (2026) – A $400 million+ fund to support Toncoin’s ecosystem growth and liquidity.

Deep Dive

1. TON Teleport Bridge (Mid-2026)

What it is:
This bridge will let users move Bitcoin onto the TON blockchain by creating a token called tgBTC. This process is trustless, meaning it doesn’t rely on any middleman or centralized party.

Why it matters:
This opens the door for Bitcoin holders to use their assets within TON’s DeFi applications, potentially increasing Toncoin’s usefulness and demand. However, there are risks related to security when moving assets across blockchains, and regulatory oversight could impact how this feature is used.

2. TON Storage Launch (Q1 2026)

What it is:
TON Storage is a decentralized way to share and store files, integrated directly with Telegram. Users can pay in Toncoin to store data on TON network nodes.

Why it matters:
This could boost Toncoin’s adoption if Telegram successfully encourages users to run storage nodes. It faces competition from existing decentralized storage platforms like IPFS and Filecoin, so its success isn’t guaranteed but has potential.

3. Layer-2 Payment Network (2026)

What it is:
A new payment system built on top of TON that supports fast, low-cost transactions without fees (gasless). It’s designed for small payments within Telegram’s mini-apps, ads, and peer-to-peer transfers.

Why it matters:
With Telegram’s huge user base, this payment network could drive widespread use of Toncoin. Tests show it can handle over 100,000 transactions per second, but user experience improvements will be key to adoption.

4. Institutional Treasury Partnerships (2026)

What it is:
The TON Foundation and Kingsway Capital are raising over $400 million to buy and lock up Toncoin, while partnering with big financial players like BlackRock (CoinMarketCap News).

Why it matters:
This could stabilize Toncoin’s price and increase confidence by reducing the number of coins in circulation and bringing in institutional support. However, a large portion of Toncoin is held by a few wallets, which could raise concerns about centralization.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s 2026 plans focus on tapping into Telegram’s massive user base while enhancing Bitcoin compatibility and DeFi features. The project shows strong technical progress, but success will depend on navigating regulatory challenges and spreading ownership more widely. The big question remains: can TON’s integration with Telegram’s mini-apps become the breakthrough that makes crypto payments mainstream?

What updates are there in the TON code base?

Toncoin’s software received major improvements in its December 2025 update, making the network faster and more efficient.

1. Parallel Validator Engine (Dec 2025) – Improved network speed by processing transactions simultaneously across multiple CPU cores.
2. Network Compression Upgrade (Dec 2025) – Cut down data traffic by 15–20%, helping nodes sync faster.
3. Windows Compatibility Fixes (Dec 2025) – Made it easier for nodes to run smoothly on Windows computers.

Deep Dive

1. Parallel Validator Engine (Dec 2025)

What’s new: This update allows the network’s validator software to split tasks across several CPU cores at once. Validators check and confirm transactions, and by working in parallel, they can finalize blocks about 30% faster during busy times.

The update also introduced “sharded state serialization” and support for “coroutines” in the programming model. In simple terms, this means the system can handle more complex smart contracts, especially those that involve communication between different parts of the network.

Why it matters: This improvement helps Toncoin scale up to handle over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) while keeping fees low. Operators running nodes on multi-core servers will see immediate speed boosts. (Source)

2. Network Compression Upgrade (Dec 2025)

What’s new: Toncoin introduced a custom data compression method that reduces the size of information sent between nodes by 15–20%. This is especially helpful for nodes in areas with slower or limited internet connections.

This upgrade speeds up the initial syncing process when a node downloads the blockchain’s history, cutting sync times by about 25% in tests.

Why it matters: Lower data usage means cheaper and faster operation for validators worldwide, encouraging more people to run nodes and making the network more decentralized. Users might also experience quicker transaction confirmations during busy periods.

3. Windows Compatibility Fixes (Dec 2025)

What’s new: The update fixed file naming issues that caused errors on Windows systems by replacing ":" with "_". It also improved how the software handles case-sensitive files and updated PowerShell scripts.

Why it matters: These fixes make it easier for people and businesses using Windows to run Toncoin nodes, expanding the number of potential validators and making the network stronger. Developers working on Toncoin tools for Windows will also have a smoother experience.

Conclusion

The December 2025 update sets Toncoin up for enterprise-level growth and wider participation from node operators. With faster transaction processing and better Windows support, Toncoin’s technology now appeals to both high-performance setups and everyday developers. It will be interesting to see how these upgrades help TON compete with other fast blockchains like Solana in handling large volumes of transactions.

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