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What could affect the price of TON?

Toncoin is balancing between growth fueled by AI technology and challenges from market ups and downs.

  1. AI Infrastructure Growth – A $46 million investment is set to expand decentralized AI computing within Telegram’s network by 2026.
  2. Telegram Integration Risks – Large holders (whales) control 68% of Toncoin, and technical issues have caused price drops, creating instability.
  3. Institutional Adoption – A Nasdaq-listed company’s treasury strategy aims to reduce supply fluctuations by holding a large amount of Toncoin.

Deep Dive

1. AI & Ecosystem Growth (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
AlphaTON is investing $46 million in Cocoon AI, a confidential computing network built on Toncoin. This project will add 576 NVIDIA B300 GPUs to Toncoin’s infrastructure, starting in February 2026. By linking Toncoin rewards to AI network use and tapping into Telegram’s 1 billion+ users, Cocoon AI could increase demand for Toncoin as both a payment method and staking asset (AlphaTON).

What this means:
More use cases for staking and transaction fees could reduce the available supply of Toncoin, while AI-driven adoption might attract more developers. However, there are risks in execution, as similar blockchain-AI projects like Render and io.net have struggled with scaling.

2. Whale Concentration & Market Volatility (Negative Outlook)

Overview:
A small group of large holders (whales) control 68% of Toncoin’s total supply, with only 20% held for the long term. Since October 2025, Toncoin’s price has dropped 65% from its all-time high, worsened by whale selloffs exceeding $200 million (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
When whales sell large amounts, it can trigger price drops and liquidations, increasing volatility. Toncoin’s price needs to hold between $1.76 and $1.85 to maintain stability; if it falls below this range, it could test lower support levels around $1.50 to $1.60.

3. Institutional Treasury Strategies (Mixed Outlook)

Overview:
TON Strategy Co., a Nasdaq-listed company, holds $713 million worth of Toncoin, aiming to control about 5% of the circulating supply. This can help reduce selling pressure. However, a 2025 Nasdaq warning over governance issues has hurt investor confidence (Cointelegraph).

What this means:
Institutional buying might help stabilize Toncoin’s price over time, but regulatory concerns and dependence on speculative investments add uncertainty.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s future price depends on balancing the benefits of AI adoption with risks from whale-driven volatility and regulatory challenges. The $1.70 to $1.85 price range is key for upward momentum; breaking above this could push prices toward $2.08 (based on Fibonacci extension levels). Keep an eye on Cocoon AI’s launch in early 2026 and Toncoin’s decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) as signs of growing adoption. The big question remains: can Telegram’s massive user base help counteract the selling pressure from whales?


What are people saying about TON?

Toncoin’s community is hopeful about a price recovery and excited about its connection to Telegram. However, concerns about a few large holders controlling most of the coins and limited activity in decentralized finance (DeFi) keep some investors cautious. Here’s what’s trending:

  1. Analysts expect Toncoin to reach $2.15 to $2.50 by the end of the year.
  2. Large holders (“whales”) dominate, which could cause price swings.
  3. Telegram’s launch of a U.S. wallet may boost adoption.
  4. Low DeFi activity compared to competitors suggests growth challenges.

Deep Dive

1. @bpaynews: Bullish outlook targeting $2.50

"TON Price Prediction: Toncoin Eyes $2.15-$2.50 Recovery by December 2025 End [...] oversold RSI at 38.26 and bullish MACD momentum support targets."
– @bpaynews (2K followers · 755 likes · Dec 24, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Technical indicators suggest Toncoin could rebound by 44-68% if buying interest picks up. However, the current low trading volume (about $79 million daily) might slow this momentum.

2. @Ludo_Mun: Risks from whale concentration

"Over 68% of Toncoin supply held by whales [...] low long-term holders (<20%) raise sustainability concerns."
– @Ludo_Mun (24K followers · 308K likes · Dec 27, 2025)
View original post
What this means: When a few large holders control most of the supply, the price can be more volatile. Big sell-offs by these whales could trigger sharp declines, like the 65% drop Toncoin experienced from its all-time high.

3. @jay_jaura: Telegram’s U.S. wallet launch has mixed impact

"Telegram launched self-custodial TON wallet for U.S. users [...] exclusivity for Mini Apps could drive 500M+ users by 2028, but DeFi TVL remains low at $85M."
– @jay_jaura (1K followers · 10K likes · Jan 6, 2026)
View original post
What this means: Telegram’s wallet could bring many new users to Toncoin, increasing its usefulness. But the low amount of money locked in Toncoin’s DeFi projects ($85 million) compared to Ethereum’s $49 billion suggests the ecosystem still needs to grow to support higher prices.

4. @Nicat_eth: Fundamentals show promise but face challenges

"TON fundamentals bullish with Layer-1 expansion [...] but competition and macro volatility pressure valuation despite 104k+ TPS tech."
– @Nicat_eth (8K followers · 25K likes · Dec 1, 2025)
View original post
What this means: Toncoin’s technology upgrades, like sharding, improve its network speed and capacity. However, strong competitors such as Solana and overall market uncertainty could limit price gains if user growth doesn’t keep pace.

Conclusion

The outlook for Toncoin is mixed. Positive technical signals and Telegram’s user base support potential growth, but risks from whale dominance and weak DeFi activity create caution. Watch the $1.55 to $1.76 price range closely. A clear move above $1.82 could confirm a recovery, while falling below $1.44 might lead to further declines.


What is the latest news about TON?

Toncoin is balancing positive developments in infrastructure with some market challenges, driven largely by Telegram’s push to grow its ecosystem. Here’s what’s new:

  1. AlphaTON’s $46M Deal with Cocoon AI (January 12, 2026) – AlphaTON is providing powerful GPU hardware to Cocoon, a decentralized AI network built on TON, to enhance computing power and increase Toncoin’s use.
  2. Telegram Launches TON Wallet and Expands Ecosystem (January 6, 2026) – Telegram introduced a self-managed TON wallet for U.S. users and made TON the exclusive blockchain for its Mini Apps platform.

In-Depth Look

1. AlphaTON’s $46M Deal with Cocoon AI (January 12, 2026)

What happened:
AlphaTON, a company listed on Nasdaq, agreed to supply Cocoon—a decentralized AI network running on TON—with 576 NVIDIA B300 GPUs. These will be delivered in stages throughout 2025. The payment includes cash, debt, and equity, aiming to grow TON’s secure computing abilities while also diversifying AlphaTON’s investments beyond just tokens. Cocoon will pay its suppliers in Toncoin, directly connecting the network’s growth to the token’s value.

Why it matters:
This deal is a positive sign for Toncoin because it links real-world AI hardware with the TON blockchain, which could increase demand for Toncoin in staking and service payments. However, delays in hardware delivery or market ups and downs could slow this progress.
(Source: CoinMarketCap)

2. Telegram Launches TON Wallet and Expands Ecosystem (January 6, 2026)

What happened:
Telegram rolled out a self-custody TON wallet for users in the U.S., allowing them to swap cryptocurrencies and make payments directly within the app. At the same time, Telegram made TON the only blockchain allowed for its Mini Apps, requiring developers to move blockchain features to TON and use TON Connect for wallet integration. Telegram’s 2026 plans also include improving scaling with Layer 2 solutions, enabling Bitcoin interoperability through TON Teleport, and adding decentralized storage options.

Why it matters:
This is a strong boost for Toncoin because Telegram’s huge user base (over 950 million) could drive widespread adoption. Making TON the exclusive blockchain for Mini Apps also increases its usefulness for payments and rewards. Still, challenges remain, such as the relatively low total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) on TON and the concentration of tokens among a few large holders.
(Source: @jay_jaura)

Conclusion

Toncoin’s growth is powered by two main forces: big institutional investments in AI infrastructure and Telegram’s expanding ecosystem. These developments suggest strong potential for increased use of Toncoin, but technical hurdles and market risks remain. The key question for 2026 is whether TON’s planned upgrades can turn its large user base into consistent, active blockchain users.


What is expected in the development of TON?

Toncoin’s roadmap for 2026 focuses on growing its infrastructure and expanding how the coin can be used, with two major projects planned:

  1. TON Storage (Q1 2026) – A decentralized system for storing and sharing files securely across the network.
  2. TON Teleport (Mid-2026) – A bridge that lets Bitcoin holders move their BTC into the TON network safely and without relying on middlemen.

1. TON Storage (Q1 2026)

What it is: TON Storage is a new way to store files across many computers instead of just one place. This makes data more permanent and harder to censor. It works like IPFS (a popular decentralized storage system) but is built directly into TON’s blockchain. The team aims to launch it in early 2026 (TON Blockchain).
Why it matters: This could make Toncoin more useful beyond just sending money. Developers building decentralized apps (dApps) might use TON Storage to keep their data safe and accessible. However, if users prefer other storage options like Filecoin or Arweave, adoption might be slower.

2. TON Teleport (Mid-2026)

What it is: TON Teleport is a tool that allows Bitcoin owners to move their BTC onto the TON network without trusting a third party. This opens the door for Bitcoin holders to use TON’s decentralized finance (DeFi) services. It’s currently being tested and expected to launch mid-2026 (Najavof.eth).
Why it matters: Bringing Bitcoin liquidity into TON could increase the amount of money flowing through TON’s DeFi ecosystem, making it more active and valuable. On the downside, if there are security issues or if regulators crack down on cross-chain transfers, it could slow down progress.

Conclusion

In 2026, Toncoin is focusing on making its blockchain more useful by adding decentralized storage and connecting with Bitcoin. These upgrades aim to grow the network’s capabilities while facing challenges like user adoption and regulatory concerns. With Telegram’s massive user base of over 950 million, it will be interesting to see how these developments influence Toncoin’s growth and real-world use.


What updates are there in the TON code base?

Toncoin’s software received major updates in December 2025, aimed at making the network faster, more efficient, and easier to use across different computer systems.

  1. Parallel Validator Engine (Dec 2025) – Speeds up transaction processing by handling multiple tasks at once.
  2. Fast State Serializer (Dec 2025) – Helps network nodes sync faster by sharing data more efficiently.
  3. Windows-Compatible Filenames (Dec 2025) – Fixes file naming issues on Windows computers for smoother operation.

Deep Dive

1. Parallel Validator Engine (Dec 2025)

What it is: This update allows the blockchain to process many tasks simultaneously, like checking transactions, instead of one at a time.
By dividing the work across multiple threads (think of it like multiple workers handling different jobs), the system uses hardware better and speeds up block confirmation times by 40–60% during tests.
Why it matters: Faster transaction processing is great news for TON because it supports Telegram’s plan to grow its user base to over 500 million people. (Source)

2. Fast State Serializer (Dec 2025)

What it is: This update changes how the network’s data is saved and shared among nodes (computers that help run the blockchain).
The new method breaks the data into smaller pieces that can be sent and processed at the same time, cutting the time it takes for a node to catch up with the network by about 35%.
Why it matters: This mainly helps the validators (the network’s “watchdogs”) work more efficiently. It doesn’t directly affect everyday users yet but improves the network’s overall health.

3. Windows-Compatible Filenames (Dec 2025)

What it is: Windows computers had trouble with certain characters like “:” in file names used by the Toncoin software. This update replaces those with “_” to avoid problems.
Why it matters: This makes it easier for developers and validators using Windows to run Toncoin nodes without errors, expanding the network’s accessibility.

Conclusion

The December 2025 updates focus on making Toncoin more scalable and user-friendly across different platforms. Improvements to validator performance boost the network’s backend, while better Windows support opens the door for more participants. These changes align with TON’s goal of widespread adoption through Telegram. The big question: will these upgrades help Toncoin become a key part of Telegram’s 950 million-user community in 2026?


Why did the price of TON go up?

Toncoin increased by 1.92% in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market gain of 2.21%. Here are the main reasons behind this movement:

  1. Institutional AI Investment – AlphaTON’s $46 million deal to build AI infrastructure boosts Toncoin’s real-world use.
  2. Technical Recovery – Toncoin’s price held steady above an important support level at $1.74.
  3. Ecosystem Growth – Telegram’s gaming features and the rollout of a U.S. wallet are encouraging more people to use Toncoin.

In-Depth Analysis

1. AI Infrastructure Partnership (Positive Impact)

Summary: AlphaTON, a company listed on Nasdaq, invested $46 million to provide 576 NVIDIA B300 GPUs to Cocoon AI, which is Telegram’s decentralized AI network. This deal means Toncoin will be used to pay for AI computing power, directly increasing demand for the token.

Why this matters:

What to watch:
Keep an eye on the delivery of GPUs (expected by February 2026) and early usage data from the network.

2. Technical Support Holding (Neutral to Positive)

Summary: Toncoin’s price bounced back from a key technical support level at $1.74, known as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Indicators like the MACD and RSI suggest that selling pressure is easing and there’s room for the price to rise.

Why this matters:

Key level to watch:
$1.82 – breaking above this could continue the upward momentum.

3. Telegram Ecosystem Growth (Mixed Impact)

Summary: Telegram launched a self-custody wallet in the U.S. in January 2026 and is leading in play-to-earn games like Notcoin and Hamster Kombat. This positions Toncoin as a key part of Telegram’s move into Web3, reaching over 950 million users.

Why this matters:

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent gains are driven by strong AI partnerships, technical price support, and Telegram’s expanding platform. However, the high concentration of tokens among a few holders and limited DeFi activity suggest caution.

What to watch next: Will Toncoin be able to turn the Cocoon AI partnership into real on-chain activity like transactions and staking by the second quarter of 2026?