Why did the price of TON fall?

Toncoin dropped 3.62% in the last 24 hours, falling more than the overall crypto market, which was down 1.43%. This continues a 7-day decline of 2.08%, even though Toncoin gained 14.71% over the past 30 days. Here’s why:

1. Technical Breakdown: Toncoin fell below a key support level at $1.75, triggering many sell orders.
2. Market Pressure: Altcoins, including Toncoin, dropped more sharply due to Bitcoin ETF outflows.
3. No Positive News: There were no new developments to help Toncoin bounce back during this drop.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Toncoin fell below an important price range between $1.75 and $1.80. This caused many stop-loss orders to activate, leading to more selling. Trading volume increased by 7.81% to $142.9 million, showing strong selling pressure.
What this means: Traders who follow technical signals see this breakdown as a sign to sell, pushing the price down further. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38.03, which is close to being oversold, so a short-term bounce might happen. However, the MACD indicator still shows bearish momentum, meaning sellers are in control for now.

2. Market-Wide Pressure (Bearish Impact)

The overall crypto market fell 1.43% last week, partly due to $681 million flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs. Altcoins like Toncoin, which tend to be more sensitive to Bitcoin’s moves (with a beta of about 1.5), experienced even bigger drops during this risk-off period.
What this means: Toncoin’s 24-hour drop was larger than other major altcoins like Ethereum (-2.1%) and Solana (-1.8%), reflecting its higher vulnerability to market sell-offs when investors pull money from riskier assets.

3. Absence of Offsetting Catalysts (Neutral Impact)

There were no significant Toncoin-specific announcements, such as new partnerships or product launches, to counter the negative price pressure.
What this means: Without fresh positive news, there was nothing to encourage buyers to step in and support the price during the technical sell-off.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent decline is driven by a mix of technical selling and broader market challenges, highlighting its sensitivity to market swings.
Key point to watch: Will Toncoin be able to climb back above $1.75 and hold that level through tomorrow’s options expiration? That could signal a potential recovery.

What could affect the price of TON?

Toncoin’s price is caught between the exciting potential of Telegram’s growing user base and the risks posed by large holders who can influence the market.

1. Telegram Integration: Launching a U.S. wallet and making Toncoin the exclusive blockchain for Mini Apps could bring over 500 million users by 2028.
2. Whale Concentration: The top 100 wallets control more than half of all Toncoin, which increases the risk of big sell-offs.
3. Technical Signals: Toncoin is near a key support level at $1.75, with momentum indicators suggesting it could either bounce back or drop further.

Deep Dive

1. Telegram Ecosystem Growth (Positive Outlook)

Telegram plans to launch a self-custodial wallet in the U.S. by January 2026 and will use Toncoin as the exclusive blockchain for its Mini Apps platform. This could bring millions of new users who will use Toncoin for payments and rewards. Since Telegram already has over 950 million monthly active users worldwide, this integration could significantly boost Toncoin’s real-world use. The roadmap also includes plans for Bitcoin compatibility and decentralized storage early in 2026. (Jay Jaura)

What this means: If Telegram successfully rolls out these features, Toncoin could see demand grow much like Ethereum did during the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi). More users mean more transactions, which increases the need for Toncoin to pay transaction fees and rewards, creating a positive feedback loop. However, Telegram’s past regulatory challenges with the SEC could still pose risks.

2. Whale Supply Risk (Negative Outlook)

More than 50% of all Toncoin is held by just 100 wallets. This concentration means that if these large holders decide to sell, it can cause sharp price drops. For example, Toncoin’s price fell 65% from its peak in 2025 partly due to whale selling. Since October 2025, whales have sold over $200 million worth of Toncoin, which has kept prices from rising. (Community post)

What this means: When a few holders control so much supply, the market becomes more volatile. Large sales by whales can trigger panic selling by others. Until Toncoin’s ownership becomes more spread out among many users, this risk will limit price gains. Retail adoption needs to grow enough to balance out the influence of these big holders.

3. Technical & Sentiment Signals (Mixed Outlook)

Toncoin is currently trading around $1.72, just below a key support level at $1.75. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.52, which indicates neither strong buying nor selling momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows some short-term downward pressure. Open interest in derivatives has jumped 33%, suggesting more speculative trading, but actual trading volume remains low. (Bpay News, Global metrics)

What this means: If Toncoin holds above $1.75, it could bounce back toward resistance near $1.95, especially if Bitcoin’s price stabilizes. But if it falls below this level, it might trigger more selling. The overall crypto market sentiment is neutral right now (Fear & Greed Index at 50), so Toncoin’s short-term direction will likely follow broader market trends.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s future depends on whether Telegram’s growing user base can offset the risks from large holders selling their coins. The price is currently at a critical support level, so watching how the U.S. wallet launch and whale activity unfold will be key. A rise in trading volume could confirm a breakout above $1.85, signaling a potential upward move.

What are people saying about TON?

Toncoin's social buzz shows a mix of cautious optimism and technical analysis. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Analysts expect a rebound to $2.15–$2.50 by the end of the year
2. Traders are watching the $1.75 support level for potential upward moves
3. Strong fundamentals face challenges from market uncertainty

Deep Dive

1. @bpaynews: Predicts $2.50 recovery by December

"TON could rally 44-68% to $2.15-$2.50 by December end, with bullish MACD and oversold RSI supporting recovery."
– @bpaynews (2K followers · December 24, 2025, 08:13 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is positive for TON because technical indicators suggest the coin might be accumulating after recent drops. However, broader market risks still exist.

2. @TronWeekly: $1.75 support level is key

"Holding above key $1.75, traders eye $1.85–$1.95 as consolidation hints at upside potential."
– @TronWeekly (32.7K followers · January 15, 2026, 08:00 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a good sign for TON because if the price stays above $1.75, it could lead to buying interest pushing the price higher toward resistance levels.

3. @Nicat_eth: Strong fundamentals but mixed outlook

"TON fundamentals tell a bullish story – growing adoption and Layer-1 utility – but market faith hinges on sustained ecosystem growth."
– @Nicat_eth (7.5K followers · December 1, 2025, 14:50 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a mixed signal for TON. While Telegram integration is helping adoption, competition and overall market volatility could affect its value.

Conclusion

The outlook for Toncoin is mixed, combining hopes for technical recovery with fundamental growth amid market challenges. Keep an eye on the $1.75–$1.82 price range for signs of a breakout.

What is the latest news about TON?

Toncoin is making strategic moves with AI partnerships and facing some technical challenges as Telegram increases its commitment. Here’s a quick summary:

1. AI Infrastructure Investment (Jan 12, 2026) – AlphaTON is putting $46 million into AI hardware based on the TON network.
2. Price Support Test (Jan 10, 2026) – Toncoin’s price dipped below a key support level but bounced back.
3. U.S. Wallet Launch (Jan 6, 2026) – Telegram introduced a TON wallet for 87 million U.S. users.

In-Depth Look

1. AI Infrastructure Investment (January 12, 2026)

What happened: AlphaTON Capital invested $46 million to set up 576 NVIDIA B300 GPUs for Cocoon AI, a decentralized AI network focused on privacy that runs on the TON blockchain. The deal includes $32.7 million in loans and equity payments, with the hardware expected to be ready by March 2026. Cocoon AI will pay GPU providers using Toncoin, linking the demand for AI computing power directly to the token’s use (AlphaTON).

Why it matters: This is a positive sign for Toncoin because it connects real-world AI infrastructure with the token, which could increase demand for staking and improve credibility with institutions. However, there are risks if the hardware deployment or adoption is delayed, which could affect returns.

2. Price Support Test (January 10, 2026)

What happened: Toncoin’s price fell below the important $1.50 support level on January 10, causing a 7% drop due to heavy selling. Analysts pointed to forced liquidations during this period. However, by January 16, the price recovered to $1.72 and tested the $1.50-$1.55 range as a new support level (Quant Analyst).

Why it matters: The price rebound suggests buyers are stepping in at lower levels, but Toncoin is still sensitive to overall market trends. Holding above $1.70 could indicate a positive turnaround, while falling below might lead to testing lower support around $1.30.

3. U.S. Wallet Launch (January 6, 2026)

What happened: Telegram launched a self-custody TON wallet for users in the United States, allowing them to swap cryptocurrencies and make payments directly within the app. Telegram has over 950 million users worldwide, and now using Toncoin is required for developers creating Mini Apps on the platform (Jay Jaura).

Why it matters: This move has neutral to positive potential. While the user base is huge, actual on-chain activity remains low, with decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked between $85 million and $150 million. The key challenge is turning Telegram’s large audience into active Toncoin users.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s future depends on balancing big institutional investments in AI, technical price support, and Telegram’s powerful distribution network. With U.S. wallet access now available and AI integration progressing, the question is whether Toncoin can use Telegram’s reach to outperform other Layer 1 blockchains in 2026.

What is expected in the development of TON?

Toncoin’s 2026 roadmap centers on expanding its network, connecting with other blockchains, and growing its user base.

1. Payment Network L2 Release (Q1 2026) – Improving payment speed and lowering fees through a Layer 2 solution.
2. TON BTC Teleport (Mid-2026) – A secure, trustless bridge to bring Bitcoin into Toncoin’s decentralized finance (DeFi) system.
3. TON Storage Launch (Q1 2026) – Introducing a decentralized file-sharing service for hosting websites and apps.

Deep Dive

1. Payment Network L2 Release (Q1 2026)

Overview:
This Layer 2 Payment Network is designed to handle a large number of small transactions—like in-app purchases or ads—quickly and with almost no fees. It uses Toncoin’s sharding technology and aims to reach Telegram’s 950 million users for widespread use.

What this means:
This development is positive for Toncoin because it could increase transaction activity and make Toncoin a key part of Telegram’s platform. However, if the user experience isn’t smooth, adoption might be slower than expected (TON Roadmap).

2. TON BTC Teleport (Mid-2026)

Overview:
This is a decentralized bridge that allows Bitcoin holders to use their BTC within Toncoin’s DeFi ecosystem by creating wrapped Bitcoin tokens (like tgBTC) without relying on a middleman.

What this means:
This feature has potential but comes with some uncertainty. It could bring more Bitcoin liquidity to Toncoin, but its success depends on strong security checks and actual demand. Tests have shown it can handle over 100,000 transactions per second, but real-world use is still unproven (Jay Jaura, 6 Jan 2026).

3. TON Storage Launch (Q1 2026)

Overview:
TON Storage is a decentralized system for storing files, competing with services like IPFS. It lets users host websites and apps directly on the Toncoin blockchain.

What this means:
This adds useful features to the network, which is a positive sign. However, it faces competition from established projects like Filecoin. Toncoin’s user base grew 50 times in 2024, indicating interest, but demand for decentralized storage is still uncertain (TON Roadmap).

Conclusion

Toncoin’s key goals for 2026—faster payments, Bitcoin integration, and decentralized storage—are designed to strengthen its position as the blockchain behind Telegram. While these plans are ambitious, their success will depend on smooth implementation and user adoption. Could Toncoin’s focus on easy-to-use features within Telegram help it compete with Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem?

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What updates are there in the TON code base?

Toncoin's latest software updates focus on making the network faster, more efficient, and easier for developers to work with, showing steady progress in its technology.

1. Parallel Validator Engine (Dec 2025) – Allows multiple transactions to be processed at the same time, increasing speed.
2. Python Testing Framework (Dec 2025) – Introduces simple testing tools using Python, making it easier for developers to find and fix issues.
3. Network Compression Upgrade (Dec 2025) – Reduces data usage and speeds up syncing between network nodes, lowering costs.

Deep Dive

1. Parallel Validator Engine (Dec 2025)

What it is: This update lets validators—the computers that confirm transactions—handle many transactions simultaneously instead of one after another. This boosts the network’s capacity without sacrificing security.
Toncoin can now process more transactions per second (TPS), which is important as Telegram’s user base grows. Recent tests show it can handle over 104,715 TPS, a very high number.
Why it matters: Faster and cheaper transactions make Toncoin more practical for millions of Telegram users. Validators can support more users efficiently, helping Toncoin scale for mass adoption.
(Source)

2. Python Testing Framework (Dec 2025)

What it is: A new set of testing tools built with Python, a popular and easy-to-learn programming language. This helps developers test smart contracts and decentralized apps (dApps) more easily.
This lowers the barrier for developers by replacing complex tools with straightforward Python scripts, speeding up the development process for projects like Telegram Mini Apps.
Why it matters: Easier development attracts more builders to the Toncoin ecosystem, encouraging growth in areas like decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and storage apps. Faster development means more useful apps for users.
(Source)

3. Network Compression Upgrade (Dec 2025)

What it is: Improvements to how data is transferred between nodes, reducing the amount of bandwidth needed. It also fixed filename issues for better compatibility with Windows systems.
This lowers operating costs for validators and speeds up how quickly nodes sync with the network, solving a common challenge in decentralized systems.
Why it matters: Lower costs encourage more people to run validator nodes, which makes the network more decentralized and reliable. It also improves the experience for users across different devices and platforms.
(Source)

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent updates focus on scaling the network and making it easier for developers to build on it, supporting Telegram’s plans to integrate these technologies. These improvements lay a stronger foundation for real-world uses like payments and Mini Apps. Looking ahead, these upgrades could help Toncoin compete strongly among Layer-1 blockchains throughout 2026.