Why did the price of TON go up?
Toncoin (TON) increased by 2.98% to $1.58 in the past 24 hours, moving differently from its recent trends of a 10.4% drop over the last week and a 7.9% rise over the past month. The main reasons for this change include:
- Telegram Ecosystem Growth – Launch of a US wallet and exclusive use of TON for Telegram Mini Apps boosted its usefulness.
- Technical Recovery – TON stayed above a key support level at $1.75 despite signals that it was oversold.
- Future Plans – Traders are watching upcoming upgrades planned for early 2026, like scaling improvements and a Bitcoin bridge.
Deep Dive
1. Telegram Ecosystem Momentum (Positive Impact)
What’s happening: Telegram has made Toncoin more useful by introducing a self-managed wallet for US users starting January 2026 and making TON the only blockchain used for its Mini Apps. This means over 950 million Telegram users can now easily swap cryptocurrencies and make payments within the app.
Why it matters: This move links the demand for TON directly to Telegram’s growth. Developers building Mini Apps must use TON for transactions, which could bring in over 500 million new users by 2028, according to analyst Jay Jaura.
2. Technical Recovery from Key Support Level (Mixed Impact)
What’s happening: TON’s price stayed above the $1.75 support level, which is important according to technical analysis, even though the market shows signs of being oversold (RSI near 34.75). Trading volume dropped by about 9.5% to $106.7 million, indicating cautious buying.
Why it matters: Short-term traders might be buying because the price looks low, but the lower trading volume raises questions about how long this recovery will last. If TON’s price rises above $1.82, it could reach $1.95. However, if it falls below $1.56, this recovery might fail.
3. Whale Activity and Roadmap Excitement (Neutral Impact)
What’s happening: Large investors (whales) have sold about $200 million worth of TON since October 2025, limiting price gains (Bpay News). Still, the upcoming 2026 roadmap, which includes improvements like Layer 2 scaling and Bitcoin compatibility, keeps medium-term holders interested.
What to watch: Look for updates on validator performance in early 2026 and whether decentralized finance (DeFi) activity grows, especially with TON-based stablecoins. Current DeFi total value locked (TVL) is between $85 million and $150 million.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s recent price increase reflects Telegram’s strategic moves, which help counteract general market worries (Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 32). While the growing ecosystem is a positive long-term factor, low trading volume and large investor selling suggest caution.
Key point to watch: Will TON maintain its $1.75 support if Bitcoin’s price falls below $90,000?
What could affect the price of TON?
Toncoin’s future looks mixed, with important factors that could either help it grow or cause challenges.
- Telegram Integration – Launching a U.S. wallet and making Toncoin the exclusive blockchain for Mini Apps could lead to widespread use.
- Technology Upgrades – Improvements like better scaling and connecting with Bitcoin might increase Toncoin’s usefulness if done right.
- Whale Influence – A small group holds 68% of Toncoin, which could cause big price swings if they sell.
Deep Dive
1. Telegram Integration (Positive Impact)
Overview: In January 2026, Telegram introduced a TON wallet for U.S. users that lets them swap cryptocurrencies and make payments directly inside the app. Toncoin is also the only blockchain allowed for Telegram’s Mini Apps, meaning developers must use TON for blockchain features. With over 950 million Telegram users, this could bring many new users to Toncoin.
What this means: This closer connection with Telegram could greatly increase how much Toncoin is used and traded, which usually pushes demand and price up. Past examples, like Notcoin’s big rise in 2024, show that Telegram’s large user base can spark price increases. Still, how fast people adopt it and possible government rules on crypto in messaging apps are uncertain factors.
2. Scaling & Interoperability (Positive Impact)
Overview: Toncoin’s 2026 plan focuses on improving speed and capacity through Layer 2 scaling and sharding (breaking data into smaller parts). It also plans to launch TON Teleport, a bridge to Bitcoin that would allow Bitcoin to be used in decentralized finance (DeFi) on Toncoin by mid-2026. Test networks have already shown they can handle over 104,000 transactions per second. Additionally, decentralized storage launching in early 2026 aims to expand what Toncoin can do.
What this means: If these upgrades work well, they could solve current limits on how many transactions Toncoin can handle and attract more developers. Connecting with Bitcoin could bring in Bitcoin’s large user base and liquidity, creating new demand. But delays or technical problems could hurt confidence in Toncoin.
3. Whale Concentration (Negative Impact)
Overview: More than 68% of Toncoin’s total supply is owned by a few large holders, known as “whales.” This is a higher concentration than other popular cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (40%) or Solana (48%).
What this means: When whales sell large amounts, it can cause big price drops and volatility. For example, in June 2025, a whale selling 5% of their holdings led to a 12% price decline. Until the supply is more evenly spread out, this risk could limit Toncoin’s price growth. Keeping an eye on whale activity through tools like Santiment is important for managing risk.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s price in 2026 will depend on how well it balances growth from Telegram’s user base with risks from whale selling and technical challenges. In the short term, watch how many people start using the U.S. wallet and the success of the new storage feature—if these don’t go well, the $1.50 price level could be tested. Over the longer term, success in scaling and a more balanced supply could help Toncoin break above $2.50. The key question is: how quickly can Toncoin turn Telegram’s huge audience into active users of the token?
What are people saying about TON?
Toncoin traders are weighing technical signals against challenges in the growing ecosystem. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Price targets between $1.85 and $2.30 by February 2026 (bullish outlook)
- Price holding near $1.75 suggests a possible breakout (neutral stance)
- Debate over Telegram integration versus limited DeFi activity (mixed views)
Deep Dive
1. @bpaynews: Bullish Price Targets
“TON is trading at $1.72 with a neutral RSI. Technical analysis points to a price range of $1.85 to $2.30 within 4 to 6 weeks.”
– @bpaynews (2,040 followers · 114K+ posts · Jan 18, 2026, 09:04 UTC)
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What this means: Analysts are optimistic about Toncoin, expecting more than 33% upside if Bitcoin remains stable. However, some technical indicators warn of short-term price fluctuations.
2. @TronWeekly: Technical Turning Point
“Price is holding above the $1.75 demand zone. Traders are watching for moves toward $1.85 to $1.95.”
– @TronWeekly (32,680 followers · 22.7K+ posts · Jan 15, 2026, 08:00 UTC)
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What this means: The near-term outlook is neutral. If trading volume stays strong above $1.75, it could spark momentum-driven buying. Still, liquidity risks remain due to a relatively low turnover ratio of 2.78%.
3. @Ludo_Mun: Ecosystem Reality Check
“Total value locked (TVL) is $85 million with only a few DeFi projects, but Telegram’s 800 million users offer huge potential.”
– @Ludo_Mun (24,356 followers · 1.4K+ posts · Dec 27, 2025, 20:24 UTC)
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What this means: The long-term outlook is mixed. While Telegram’s large user base is promising, the current ecosystem is still thin. Staking rewards are low (around 0.6%), which doesn’t strongly encourage users to lock up their coins.
Conclusion
Overall, the sentiment around Toncoin is cautiously optimistic. Technical indicators suggest potential price gains, but the ecosystem’s current state is holding back stronger growth. Keep an eye on the $1.75 support level—if it holds, it could confirm bullish momentum. If it breaks, prices might revisit the 2025 low of $1.43. How well Telegram’s U.S. wallet adoption progresses this quarter could be a key factor moving forward.
What is the latest news about TON?
Toncoin is navigating a mixed market environment with strong growth in its ecosystem but facing some selling pressure from investors taking profits. Here’s the latest update:
- Top Crypto to Watch in 2026 (January 21, 2026) – Recognized as a leading cryptocurrency for 2026 due to its integration with Telegram.
- Selling Pressure Detected (January 19, 2026) – Short-term price gains may be limited as data shows investors cashing out.
- Telegram Wallet Launch in the U.S. (July 22, 2025) – U.S. users can now swap and pay with crypto directly inside the Telegram app.
In-Depth Look
1. Top Crypto to Watch in 2026 (January 21, 2026)
Summary:
A recent Bitget report highlights Toncoin as one of the most promising cryptocurrencies for 2026. The report points to Toncoin’s connection with Telegram, its fast transaction speed (about 100,000 transactions per second), and growing use in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Toncoin currently has a market value of $4.25 billion and about 2.42 billion coins in circulation. However, the report warns that interest driven mainly by hype could fade without new developments.
What this means:
This is a positive sign for Toncoin, showing it has strong potential as a Layer-1 blockchain platform. But for continued growth, Toncoin needs to offer real-world uses—like payment options and small apps—to Telegram’s huge user base of over 900 million people.
2. Selling Pressure Detected (January 19, 2026)
Summary:
According to AMBCrypto, Toncoin is facing resistance around the $1.70 price level. This is linked to a rise in the 90-day MVRV ratio (a measure of profit-taking) by 40% since December, suggesting many holders are selling to lock in gains. The average holding time of coins hasn’t increased, indicating weak buying interest.
What this means:
This points to a neutral to slightly negative outlook in the short term. While Toncoin’s price is holding steady near $1.70, the lack of strong buying means the price may struggle to rise until new investors step in. Traders are watching for a potential move up to the $2.16–$2.37 range if support holds.
3. Telegram Wallet Launch in the U.S. (July 22, 2025)
Summary:
Telegram introduced its own TON Wallet for users in the United States, allowing them to swap cryptocurrencies, store coins, and make payments all within the Telegram app. This move taps into Telegram’s large user base to encourage wider use of Toncoin.
What this means:
This is a strong positive development. By integrating Toncoin directly into Telegram, it becomes more accessible to everyday users. However, challenges remain, including regulatory concerns and competition from stablecoins like USDT that also operate on the TON network.
Conclusion
Toncoin’s future depends on balancing the growth of Telegram’s ecosystem with how the market reacts. While short-term price swings are expected, ongoing developments like the wallet and mini-apps could drive long-term adoption. The key question is whether selling pressure will ease as more Telegram users start using Toncoin, or if the coin will face a period of sideways trading.
What is expected in the development of TON?
TON’s development is moving forward with these key milestones coming up:
- TON Storage Release (Q1 2026) – Launching a decentralized file storage system that allows users to share data securely without censorship.
- TON Teleport BTC Mainnet (Mid-2026) – Full launch of a secure bridge that brings Bitcoin into TON’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.
- Ecosystem Expansion Beyond Telegram (2026) – Efforts to grow TON’s use cases and partnerships outside of the Telegram platform.
Deep Dive
1. TON Storage Release (Q1 2026)
What it is: TON Storage will be a decentralized service for storing and sharing files. Unlike traditional cloud storage, it uses blockchain technology to keep data encrypted and resistant to censorship. This means users can safely store and share files without relying on a central company.
Why it matters: This expands TON’s capabilities beyond just payments, making it more useful for developers and everyday users who want secure, decentralized data storage. The challenge will be making the service easy to use and affordable compared to centralized options like Google Drive or Dropbox.
2. TON Teleport BTC Mainnet (Mid-2026)
What it is: After testing in 2025 (Kcywayne), TON will fully launch a “trustless” bridge that lets users lock their Bitcoin and receive tgBTC tokens on the TON network. This allows Bitcoin holders to use their coins within TON’s DeFi apps, increasing liquidity and activity.
Why it matters: This could bring a lot of Bitcoin’s value and users into TON’s ecosystem, boosting its financial activity and appeal. The main risk is making sure the bridge is secure and reliable to prevent hacks or loss of funds.
3. Ecosystem Expansion Beyond Telegram (2026)
What it is: TON Foundation’s leadership plans to grow TON independently from Telegram (Yellow.com). This means developing new products and partnerships to make TON a platform for consumer apps across different services and devices.
Why it matters: Reducing dependence on Telegram lowers risk and could attract more developers and users. However, success depends on how well TON can integrate with other platforms and overcome the challenges of onboarding new users.
Conclusion
TON’s 2026 roadmap aims to increase its usefulness with decentralized storage and Bitcoin integration while expanding its ecosystem beyond Telegram. If these plans succeed, TON could establish itself as a strong, independent Layer-1 blockchain platform.
What updates are there in the TON code base?
Toncoin's technology received major upgrades and security fixes in late 2025.
- Database & Serialization Upgrade (Dec 2025) – Activated "celldb-v2" and faster state serialization by default.
- Network Optimization (Dec 2025) – Enhanced traffic compression and parallel processing for validators.
- Security Patch (July 2025) – Fixed a critical vulnerability in the virtual machine to prevent crashes.
- Documentation Revamp (Nov 2025) – Introduced AI-powered developer guides and easier navigation.
In-Depth Look
1. Database & Serialization Upgrade (Dec 2025)
What happened: In December 2025, Toncoin improved how its blockchain stores and processes data. The update enabled "celldb-v2," a more efficient way to save blockchain information, and introduced sharded state serialization, which allows parts of the blockchain state to be processed in parallel. This led to a 40–60% faster synchronization time for nodes (computers that help run the network). They also made file naming more compatible with Windows by replacing ":" with "_".
Why it matters: Faster syncing makes it easier for new participants (called validators) to join and help secure the network. This supports decentralization, meaning no single party controls the system. Users also experience more stable performance during busy times.
(Source)
2. Network Optimization (Dec 2025)
What happened: Validator engines, which verify transactions, now handle multiple tasks at once, potentially increasing processing speed by 30%. Network data compression was improved using Zstandard, a modern algorithm that reduces the size of data sent across the network.
These upgrades build on Toncoin’s existing sharding system, which already supports over 104,000 transactions per second in tests.
Why it matters: While users may not notice immediate changes, these improvements strengthen the network’s foundation, preparing it to handle more traffic as it grows.
(Source)
3. Security Patch (July 2025)
What happened: A security issue was found in Toncoin’s virtual machine (TVM), the software that runs smart contracts. This flaw could have caused the blockchain to stop working. The TonBit team quickly fixed the problem within 48 hours.
Why it matters: Fixing this vulnerability fast shows the network’s resilience and commitment to security. This builds trust, especially important for Telegram’s large user base of over 950 million people.
(Source)
4. Documentation Revamp (Nov 2025)
What happened: Toncoin updated its developer documentation using AI tools to provide clear, easy-to-understand answers. The navigation was simplified, and original technical papers were converted into web-friendly formats.
Developers now onboard 50% faster, with the AI assistant handling 80% of common questions about smart contracts and node setup.
Why it matters: Better documentation lowers the learning curve for developers, encouraging more people to build on Toncoin and grow its ecosystem.
(Source)
Conclusion
Toncoin’s recent updates focus on making the network faster, safer, and easier to develop on—key factors for reaching its goal of 500 million users through Telegram by 2028. Although the price remains steady at $1.58 as of January 21, 2026, these behind-the-scenes improvements point to a maturing infrastructure. The big question is whether Toncoin’s technical strengths will lead to wider adoption in decentralized finance (DeFi) as market conditions improve.