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Why did the price of ARB fall?

Arbitrum (ARB) dropped 3% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 0.24%. This decline is driven by negative technical signals, increased competition from other blockchain networks, and weak interest in Layer-2 tokens like ARB.

  1. Technical Breakdown – Price fell below important support levels
  2. Ecosystem Competition – Competing blockchains are gaining traction and fees
  3. Altcoin Market Weakness – Bitcoin’s market share rose to 58.11%

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
ARB’s price slipped below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.484 and its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.467. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 30.86, indicating the token is oversold. The MACD indicator also shows bearish momentum.

What this means:
Many traders sold their ARB holdings after the price dropped below the $0.40 support level, triggering automatic stop-loss orders. The $0.521 level now acts as resistance, while $0.395 remains a critical support point.

What to watch:
If ARB closes above $0.42 on a daily basis, it could signal a potential recovery. However, falling below $0.39 might lead to further declines toward $0.35.


2. Layer-2 Competition Intensifies (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Other blockchain networks like BNB Chain, which saw a 56% increase in fees, and HyperEVM, which doubled its fee growth, have outperformed Arbitrum in recent metrics, according to CoinTelegraph.

What this means:
Investors are shifting their focus to blockchains with stronger growth stories. Arbitrum experienced a 10% drop in network transactions, reducing demand for ARB fees, even though it still leads with $2.5 billion in total value locked (TVL).


3. Altcoin Sentiment Erosion (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market reached 58.11%, a 30-day high, while the Altcoin Season Index dropped 7% over the past week. ARB’s correlation with Ethereum (ETH) weakened to 0.72 from a historical 0.89.

What this means:
Traders are favoring Bitcoin amid economic uncertainties like U.S. tariffs and Federal Reserve policies. ARB’s 20% monthly decline reflects how Layer-2 tokens are being treated as higher-risk investments during cautious market conditions.


Conclusion

ARB’s recent drop is due to a mix of technical weaknesses, increased competition among Layer-2 blockchains, and a general downturn in altcoin sentiment. Although the oversold RSI suggests a possible rebound, ARB needs to reclaim the $0.42 level to confirm a bullish turnaround.

Key watch: The Arbitrum DAO vote on October 2 regarding ETH treasury investments. Approval could increase staking rewards and boost demand for ARB.


What could affect the price of ARB?

Arbitrum’s price is currently influenced by a mix of positive developments and challenges in the market.

  1. Upcoming Tech Upgrades – The ArbOS 40 update improves scalability and user experience, which is a positive sign.
  2. DAO-Led Ecosystem Growth – A $14 million audit program and grants are encouraging developer activity, but results are mixed.
  3. L2 Competition – Robinhood’s possible move to its own blockchain could reduce Arbitrum’s adoption, posing a risk.

Deep Dive

1. ArbOS 40 Upgrade Impact (Positive)

Overview:
In June 2025, Arbitrum launched the ArbOS 40 "Callisto" upgrade. This update added features that align more closely with Ethereum, such as native account abstraction (EIP-7702) and improved signature efficiency. These changes help lower transaction fees and make wallets more flexible, which could attract more decentralized applications (dApps) to the network.

What this means:
Better developer tools and reduced costs can lead to increased network use, driving demand for ARB-related services. For example, a previous upgrade called Nitro in 2022 led to a 300% increase in total value locked (TVL) within six months.


2. DAO Treasury & Governance (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The Arbitrum DAO controls about 42.78% of the ARB token supply (around 4.27 billion tokens). In July 2025, it approved a $14 million program to subsidize security audits. However, only 31% of governance proposals focus on ecosystem grants (NullTX).

What this means:
Using the treasury wisely could improve network security and foster innovation. But slow distribution of grants might allow competitors like Optimism to gain an edge. It’s important to watch how many people participate in voting, which currently stands at 2,724 addresses.


3. Market Positioning Risks (Negative)

Overview:
Arbitrum leads the layer 2 (L2) scaling solutions with $2.53 billion in TVL. However, Robinhood’s plan to move to its own blockchain (July 2025) threatens one of Arbitrum’s major institutional partnerships.

What this means:
Losing a high-profile partner like Robinhood could hurt ARB’s real-world use case. On the bright side, Timeboost generated $2 million in fee revenue in July 2025 (July 2025), showing progress in monetization that might offset some risks.


Conclusion

The future price of ARB depends on how well Arbitrum balances technical improvements with competition and DAO governance. The current price range of $0.40 to $0.48 matches the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, a common technical indicator. Breaking above $0.52 resistance (seen in August) could signal renewed growth. The key questions remain: Will DAO-funded audits and Robinhood’s plans in Q4 drive the next price surge, or will Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade shift attention away?


What are people saying about ARB?

Arbitrum’s summer is heating up as builders and investors face off. Here’s what’s trending:

  1. Analyst Michael van de Poppe predicts a breakout – bullish signals suggest a possible rally over the next 1-2 months
  2. $14 million security audit fund launched – a DAO-backed effort to strengthen network trust
  3. Traders focus on $0.30-$0.50 price range – increased volatility as buyers and sellers battle it out

Deep Dive

1. Michael van de Poppe: Bullish signals spark optimism

"Ascending lows and highs are forming. This long-term bullish divergence indicates a successful performance in the next 1-2 months."
– CoinMarketCap (May 29, 2025, 11:23 PM UTC)
View original analysis
What this means: This is positive for ARB because technical momentum, combined with growing decentralized finance (DeFi) activity, could bring in new investment. Van de Poppe’s history of accurate calls adds weight to his $0.45-$0.60 price target.

2. Arbitrum Foundation: $14 million fund for security audits

"Approved projects must select audit service providers from a pre-approved list... expected to be announced within the week."
– CoinMarketCap (July 28, 2025, 9:49 PM UTC)
View announcement
What this means: This is good news for ARB because stronger security measures can encourage enterprise adoption and reduce risks in smart contracts—key for maintaining Arbitrum’s position as a leading Layer 2 solution.

3. @CryptoTA_King: Price swings dominate trading

"ARB’s price action has been a rollercoaster...Bearish bias with sellers in control, but recoveries hint at buyer support."
– CoinMarketCap Community Post (August 5, 2025, 2:55 PM UTC)
View full analysis
What this means: This is mixed for ARB because, while the price holding above the 200-day moving average at $0.40 shows strength, failed attempts to break above $0.43-$0.45 keep short-term traders cautious.

Conclusion

The overall outlook for ARB is cautiously optimistic, balancing solid fundamentals with technical challenges. Growth in the ecosystem and improved security are promising, but the token’s price still depends heavily on broader market trends and Bitcoin’s performance. Keep an eye on the $0.45 resistance level—a clear break above could confirm van de Poppe’s bullish forecast, while rejection might lead to more sideways trading. For the latest updates on price swings, watch ARB’s spot versus perpetuals funding rate spread.


What is the latest news about ARB?

Arbitrum is working on governance improvements and expanding its ecosystem, while facing mixed signals from the market. Here are the key updates:

  1. DAO Votes on Investing Idle ETH (September 30, 2025) – A proposal to earn about 204 ETH per year by putting treasury funds to work.
  2. Atlas Upgrade Set for Q4 (September 26, 2025) – Aims to lower transaction fees and improve network performance.
  3. Bridge Tool Improved for Cross-Chain Transfers (September 23, 2025) – Makes moving assets between blockchains easier through Li.Fi integration.

Deep Dive

1. DAO Votes on Investing Idle ETH (September 30, 2025)

Overview:
The Arbitrum DAO is voting until October 2 on a plan to invest unused ETH from its treasury into strategies that generate yield, targeting about 204 ETH annually. This approach is similar to what other DAOs like Lido have done to make better use of their funds.

What this means:
This move is cautiously positive for ARB because it could help the treasury grow without needing to sell tokens right away. However, there are risks like potential bugs in smart contracts and missing out on gains if ETH’s price rises sharply. (CoinDesk)

2. Atlas Upgrade Set for Q4 (September 26, 2025)

Overview:
Arbitrum’s upcoming “Atlas” upgrade aims to cut gas fees (transaction costs) and boost scalability. This comes as competitors like HyperEVM and BNB Chain are gaining ground. Recently, Arbitrum’s fees dropped by 50% weekly, while competitors’ fees increased.

What this means:
This is a positive sign for the long term because lower fees can attract more developers and users. But in the short term, ARB’s price has fallen 19% over the past month, reflecting challenges across Layer-2 networks. (MEXC News)

3. Bridge Tool Improved for Cross-Chain Transfers (September 23, 2025)

Overview:
Arbitrum upgraded its bridge tool to allow direct asset transfers between different blockchains within apps. This includes integration with Li.Fi for better routing and MoonPay for easy fiat-to-crypto purchases. Platforms like Camelot have already started using this feature.

What this means:
This is good news for adoption because it makes it easier for new users to move assets and interact with Arbitrum. However, its success depends on how many developers use it and competition from other solutions like LayerZero. (Binance Square)

Conclusion

Arbitrum is balancing upgrades and governance experiments to strengthen its position as a Layer-2 solution. While broader market challenges and competitors are testing its momentum, the DAO’s investment plan and the Atlas upgrade could help spark a rebound in Q4 as Ethereum activity picks up.


What is expected in the development of ARB?

Arbitrum’s roadmap is focused on improving technology, security, and growing its community.

  1. Stylus Mainnet Launch (Q3 2025) – New smart contracts in Rust and C++ that cost less to run.
  2. BoLD Fraud-Proof System (Q4 2025) – A decentralized way to verify transactions faster and more securely.
  3. Arbitrum Orbit Expansion (2026) – Adding 100+ new blockchains for DeFi, AI, and gaming projects.
  4. Gaming Catalyst Program (2025-2027) – $95 million in ARB grants to bring more games into the ecosystem.

Deep Dive

1. Stylus Mainnet Launch (Q3 2025)

What it is:
Stylus lets developers write smart contracts using Rust, C++, and other languages alongside Solidity (the usual language for Ethereum contracts). This can make running contracts about 10 times cheaper. It’s currently being tested, with a final vote planned for Q3 2025 (AIP-30). Big partners like OpenZeppelin and Etherscan are building tools to support it.

Why it matters:
This could attract more traditional developers, especially those working on AI or math-heavy apps, making Arbitrum more popular. However, delays or low adoption after launch are possible risks.

2. BoLD Fraud-Proof System (Q4 2025)

What it is:
BoLD will replace Arbitrum’s current system with a fully decentralized way to check transactions within 14 days. This was approved by the community (temperature check). A $6 million ARB fund will support validators who help secure the network.

Why it matters:
This improves trust and security but might be challenging for node operators at first. Its success depends on enough validators joining.

3. Arbitrum Orbit Expansion (2026)

What it is:
Arbitrum is building over 50 new “Orbit” chains, including ApeChain and XR One. A recent vote lets Orbit chains run on any blockchain, not just Ethereum, increasing flexibility.

Why it matters:
This expansion will boost ARB’s usefulness since Orbit chains share 8% of their profits with the Arbitrum DAO. Still, competition from other platforms like Polygon and zkSync is a factor.

4. Gaming Catalyst Program (2025-2027)

What it is:
The Arbitrum DAO approved 225 million ARB tokens (about $95 million) to fund game developers, infrastructure, and user growth. Early partners include Square Enix and TapNation Games.

Why it matters:
Gaming can drive lots of transactions and users, helping Arbitrum grow. But there’s a risk if funded projects don’t deliver successful games.

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s roadmap combines technical improvements (Stylus and BoLD) with ecosystem growth (Orbit and Gaming Catalyst Program), aiming to strengthen its position as a top Ethereum scaling solution. Keep an eye on how quickly developers adopt Stylus and how well the gaming grants perform. Also, watch how expanding Orbit chains across blockchains might affect ARB’s value.


What updates are there in the ARB code base?

In 2025, Arbitrum made significant improvements to its technology, focusing on better alignment with Ethereum, stronger security, and enhanced tools for developers.

  1. ArbOS 40 “Callisto” (May 2025) – Updated to match Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, adding features like native account abstraction and advanced cryptography.
  2. $14M Audit Subsidy Program (July 2025) – A DAO-backed initiative to fund security audits for new projects in the ecosystem.
  3. Stylus Virtual Machine Fixes (First half of 2024) – Fixed bugs to improve reliability for developers using Arbitrum’s multi-language virtual machine.

Deep Dive

1. ArbOS 40 “Callisto” (May 2025)

What it is: This upgrade brings Arbitrum One and Nova closer to Ethereum’s latest improvements, introducing new features that make the network more flexible and secure.

Key features include:

Why it matters: These updates make Arbitrum more compatible with Ethereum’s future plans, simplify the user experience, and attract developers who need advanced cryptographic tools. This is a positive sign for ARB’s growth and adoption. (Source)

2. $14M Security Audit Program (July 2025)

What it is: The ArbitrumDAO approved a year-long program that provides funding to help early-stage projects pay for security audits.

Key details:

Why it matters: While this doesn’t directly change how the Arbitrum protocol works, it helps reduce security risks for new projects. This can increase overall trust in the Arbitrum ecosystem, which is good for ARB’s long-term value. (Source)

3. Stylus Virtual Machine Fixes (First half of 2024)

What it is: A technical bug related to caching in Stylus, Arbitrum’s virtual machine that supports multiple programming languages, was fixed.

Why it matters: This fix improves reliability for developers building smart contracts in languages like Rust and C++. While it’s a minor update, it supports Arbitrum’s goal of attracting developers beyond Solidity users, helping grow the ecosystem.

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s 2025 upgrades show a clear focus on staying aligned with Ethereum’s roadmap while strengthening the ecosystem’s security and developer experience. The Callisto upgrade and the audit subsidy program highlight Arbitrum’s maturity as a developer-friendly Layer 2 solution. With ongoing improvements to Stylus and growing interest in Orbit chains, these advancements could play a key role in ARB’s position within Ethereum’s expanding multi-chain landscape.