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Why did the price of ARB go up?

Arbitrum (ARB) increased by 2.36% in the last 24 hours, matching a weekly gain of 9.53%, though it’s still down 8.31% over the past month. This growth is driven by positive technical signals, expanding ecosystem activity, and a general rise in altcoin interest.

  1. Technical Breakout Signals – Positive MACD crossover and RSI bounce.
  2. Ecosystem Momentum – Total Value Locked (TVL) at $4.12 billion and decentralized exchange (DEX) activity at $834.7 million.
  3. Market Sentiment Shift – Investors moving into altcoins amid a “Greed” mood (Fear & Greed Index at 62).

Deep Dive

1. Technical Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview: ARB’s price has moved back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.398 and broken out of a falling wedge pattern, which often signals a trend reversal to the upside. The MACD indicator, which helps identify momentum, turned positive for the first time in two weeks, and the 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.54 shows there’s still room for the price to rise before it becomes overbought.

What this means: Breaking above $0.45 suggests short-term buying strength, with traders targeting resistance levels between $0.48 and $0.50. However, the Supertrend indicator remains bearish, indicating some caution is still warranted.

What to watch: If ARB closes above $0.475, it could spark a 30% rally toward $0.62. If it fails, the price might drop back to support around $0.424.

2. Ecosystem Strength (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Arbitrum’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has jumped to $4.12 billion, a 31% increase since September, and the stablecoin market cap on the network rose 5.34% to $4.15 billion. However, there’s a scheduled unlock of 40 million ARB tokens on October 12 (worth about $18 million), which has historically led to selling pressure.

What this means: The rising TVL shows growing confidence from institutional investors, but the upcoming token unlock could increase supply and put short-term pressure on prices. Recent developments, like Robinhood enabling tokenized stock trading on Arbitrum for European users (Cointribune), demonstrate the platform’s expanding real-world use.

3. Market-Wide Altcoin Rotation (Bullish Impact)

Overview: The Altcoin Season Index climbed 3.57% this week to 58, showing growing interest in altcoins, especially Ethereum Layer-2 tokens like ARB. ARB’s 24-hour trading volume jumped 49% to $321 million, while Bitcoin’s market dominance slipped slightly by 0.51% to 58.04%.

What this means: Investors are moving money into higher-risk, higher-reward altcoins like ARB to capitalize on Ethereum’s momentum. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $4.25 trillion, up 0.5% in a day, supporting a risk-on environment.

Conclusion

ARB’s recent price increase is fueled by positive technical signals, growing ecosystem adoption, and a favorable shift in market sentiment toward altcoins. However, the October 12 token unlock and limited liquidity above $0.50 present potential risks.

Key watch: Will ARB maintain support at $0.45 after the unlock, or will profit-taking push prices down? Keep an eye on trading volume and Ethereum’s price movements for guidance.


What could affect the price of ARB?

Arbitrum’s price is caught between positive factors and potential challenges.

  1. Token Unlocks (Bearish) – On October 12, 40 million ARB tokens (worth about $18 million) will become available, which could put downward pressure on the price.
  2. Layer-2 Competition (Mixed) – Linea, a competing blockchain, is gaining ground with support from SWIFT and MetaMask, challenging Arbitrum’s lead.
  3. Ecosystem Growth (Bullish) – New grants, upgrades, and Robinhood’s pilot program for real-world assets are boosting Arbitrum’s usefulness.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks & Inflation Risk (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
On October 12, 40.03 million ARB tokens will be unlocked, part of a larger wave of over $1 billion in crypto tokens becoming available this month (Cointribune). When large amounts of tokens unlock, it often leads to short-term selling if there isn’t enough demand to absorb the new supply.

What this means:
Arbitrum’s circulating supply of 5.4 billion tokens could increase by about 0.74%, which may test how eager buyers are. The token’s price has already dropped around 8.66% over the past 30 days, reflecting concerns about these unlocks. However, Arbitrum’s strong fundamentals might help soften the impact.

2. Layer-2 Competition Heats Up (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Linea, a blockchain built with zero-knowledge proofs (zkEVM), has gained attention after partnering with SWIFT for a settlement prototype and launching a $30 million rewards program with MetaMask (CCN). While Arbitrum still leads in total value locked (TVL) with $4.12 billion compared to Linea’s $2.27 billion, it faces pressure to maintain its position.

What this means:
Arbitrum’s compatibility with Ethereum’s technology and its community-driven governance are advantages. But Linea’s growing support from big institutions shows Arbitrum needs to keep innovating quickly. If Arbitrum loses market share, its price might drop, though its strong presence in decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms like GMX and Uniswap provides some protection.

3. Ecosystem & Governance Momentum (Bullish Impact)

Overview:

What this means:
Real-world asset adoption and technical improvements are making Arbitrum more useful. Stablecoin liquidity on Arbitrum has grown to $4.15 billion, up 5.34% week-over-week, indicating more activity in DeFi, which could increase demand for ARB as a governance token.

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s price will depend on whether its ecosystem growth can outpace token unlocks and competition. The October 12 token unlock and Linea’s rise are short-term challenges, but Robinhood’s user growth and ongoing governance efforts could help ARB recover if the overall crypto market remains stable. Will increasing stablecoin activity balance out selling pressure from token unlocks? Keep an eye on ARB’s turnover ratio (0.131) for signs of liquidity.


What are people saying about ARB?

The Arbitrum (ARB) community is torn between excitement over potential price gains and concerns about market stability. Here’s what’s happening right now:

  1. Bullish momentum tests $0.58 resistance – Traders are eyeing targets above $0.90 if Ethereum (ETH) continues to rally.
  2. Robinhood partnership rumors sparked a 20% price jump, even though details haven’t been confirmed.
  3. PayPal expands its PYUSD stablecoin to Arbitrum – This shows growing institutional interest, but technical indicators suggest caution.
  4. Volatility warnings as ARB’s price swings 17% weekly amid low trading volume.

In-Depth Look

1. Resistance Test at $0.58 Signals Possible Upside

@mkbijaksana notes:
"ARB testing 0.585 resistance. Break = 0.9-1 target. Watch ETH correlation."
See original post

What this means: If ARB breaks above $0.58, it could trigger a buying frenzy driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 71.6, indicating the coin might be overbought. Also, ARB’s price tends to move closely with Ethereum, with a strong 0.87 correlation over the past 90 days. So, ETH’s performance will heavily influence ARB’s next moves.

2. Strong Trading Volume Supports Price Gains

According to CoinMarketCap Analysis:
"ARB up 15% with $1.45B volume. RSI 71.6 signals overbought, but 200-day SMA ($0.388) holds."
See original post

What this means: The high trading volume shows solid interest from larger investors, which helps support price increases. However, open interest in derivatives (contracts betting on price movements) dropped by nearly 7% last week, which could mean traders are cautious about holding positions for too long.

3. PayPal’s PYUSD Stablecoin Expands to Arbitrum

CCN Report states:
"PayPal’s PYUSD expands to Arbitrum as RWA TVL hits $265M. Price unchanged post-news."
See original post

What this means: PayPal’s move to bring its PYUSD stablecoin to Arbitrum shows growing trust and adoption by big financial players. The total value locked (TVL) in real-world assets (RWA) on Arbitrum has grown 18% in the third quarter, reaching $265 million. Despite this, ARB’s price hasn’t moved much, suggesting the market hasn’t fully priced in this development yet. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.67 indicates ARB might be undervalued compared to similar projects.

4. Volatility and Risk Are High

AmbCrypto Alert warns:
"ARB liquidations hit $40M weekly. Funding rate +475% signals overheated longs."
See original post

What this means: Many traders are using high leverage (borrowing money to trade), which increases the risk of sudden price drops. Weekly liquidations (forced selling due to losses) reached $40 million, and the funding rate—a fee paid by traders betting on price increases—is very high at +475%, showing that long positions might be overextended. Most of ARB’s gains in August came during just three volatile days, highlighting the unstable market conditions.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook on Arbitrum is cautiously optimistic. The growing involvement of companies like PayPal and rumors about Robinhood partnerships support Arbitrum’s position as a leading Layer 2 blockchain solution. However, ARB’s price is more volatile than Ethereum’s, with a 30-day volatility of 48.7% compared to ETH’s 34.2%. This means investors should manage their risks carefully.

Keep an eye on the $0.54 support level—if ARB falls below this, it could trigger profit-taking and a drop toward the 50-day moving average around $0.43. Also, consider whether the ecosystem’s growth justifies ARB’s 33% underperformance year-to-date compared to competitors like Optimism (OP).


What is the latest news about ARB?

Arbitrum is managing upcoming token releases and positive technical trends while growing connections with traditional finance. Here’s the latest update:

  1. Large Token Unlocks (October 12, 2025) – 40 million ARB tokens (worth about $18 million) will enter the market, which could lead to selling pressure.
  2. Strong Technical Signals with TVL Growth (October 6, 2025) – Increased network activity is driving positive price patterns.
  3. Robinhood’s Tokenized Stocks Launch (October 4, 2025) – Arbitrum supports trading of U.S. stocks in Europe, boosting use by institutions.

In-Depth Look

1. Large Token Unlocks (October 12, 2025)

What’s happening:
On October 12, Arbitrum will release 40.03 million ARB tokens, worth around $18 million. This is part of a larger wave of token releases totaling over $1 billion across projects like Aptos and Avalanche. This unlock equals about 0.74% of all ARB tokens currently circulating, with similar releases expected monthly.

Why it matters:
This could put downward pressure on ARB’s price in the short term because more tokens available might lead to more selling. However, long-term investors might see price dips as a chance to buy more, especially if the Arbitrum ecosystem continues to grow and attract users. (Cointribune)

2. Strong Technical Signals with TVL Growth (October 6, 2025)

What’s happening:
Arbitrum’s Total Value Locked (TVL)—which measures how much money is invested in its network—rose to $4.12 billion, a 31% increase from last month. Trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) also increased to $834 million. Analysts have spotted a “falling wedge” pattern, which often signals a price breakout. If ARB’s price breaks above $0.475, it could jump by 30%.

Why it matters:
This is a cautiously positive sign for ARB. The growing TVL shows more demand for the network, but some technical indicators remain bearish, meaning traders are waiting for stronger confirmation. If ARB closes above $0.48, it could confirm a bullish trend. (AMBCrypto)

3. Robinhood’s Tokenized Stocks Launch (October 4, 2025)

What’s happening:
Robinhood has partnered with Arbitrum to let European users trade tokenized versions of U.S. stocks and ETFs. This means users can buy and sell these assets 24/7, thanks to Arbitrum’s fast and scalable network. There are over 200 tokenized assets available, with Ethereum (ETH) used for transaction fees and ARB tokens used as incentives.

Why it matters:
This is a big win for ARB because it shows real-world use and growing interest from institutional investors. However, Arbitrum faces competition from other networks like Solana, and regulatory challenges around tokenized stocks could pose risks. (Daily Hodl)

Conclusion

Arbitrum is balancing the challenges of upcoming token releases with positive technical signals and a major partnership with Robinhood. While short-term price swings are expected, Arbitrum’s role in scaling Ethereum and connecting traditional finance with decentralized finance keeps ARB strategically important. The key question is whether institutional interest can offset selling pressure from the token unlocks this October.


What is expected in the development of ARB?

Arbitrum is making steady progress with these key updates:

  1. Security Council Elections (Q1 2026) – A vote on the blockchain will refresh half of the 12-member team that oversees security, helping keep the system safe and up to date.
  2. Orbit Chain Expansion (Ongoing) – Developers can now create their own Layer 3 (L3) blockchains on top of Arbitrum’s existing networks using the Orbit framework, with over 40 chains already live and more than 100 in development.
  3. $14M Audit Program (July 2025–July 2026) – The community is funding security reviews of smart contracts to make the ecosystem safer and more trustworthy.

Deep Dive

1. Security Council Elections (Q1 2026)

What’s happening?
Arbitrum’s decentralized organization (DAO) holds elections twice a year for its Security Council, which is split into two groups of six members each. The upcoming election will replace one group to keep the team fresh and effective in handling emergencies and fixing vulnerabilities (Arbitrum DAO FAQs).

Why it matters:
This helps keep Arbitrum’s governance decentralized and secure. However, if fewer people vote, there’s a risk that decisions might not represent the community well.

2. Orbit Chain Expansion (Ongoing)

What’s happening?
Using Arbitrum’s Orbit framework, developers can build custom L3 blockchains on top of Arbitrum One and Nova networks. More than 40 of these chains are already active, with over 100 more being developed for areas like decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and artificial intelligence (Arbitrum X post).

Why it matters:
This growth is positive for ARB because these new chains increase demand for ARB tokens, which are used for governance and paying fees. However, success depends on how well these specialized chains meet user needs.

3. $14M Audit Program (July 2025–July 2026)

What’s happening?
The Arbitrum DAO has approved a $14 million budget (30 million ARB tokens) to help pay for security audits of projects within the ecosystem. This program is managed by a committee that includes Offchain Labs, the team behind Arbitrum (NullTX).

Why it matters:
In the long run, this makes the ecosystem safer and more attractive to big investors by reducing the risk of hacks. In the short term, there might be some selling pressure on ARB tokens as subsidies are distributed.

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s plan balances technical innovation (Orbit chains), security improvements (audit funding), and stronger governance (Security Council elections). With most community proposals passing with about 78% approval, the key to success will be keeping developers engaged, especially as Ethereum and other platforms compete to scale blockchain technology.

How will Arbitrum’s L3 adoption compare to other rollup ecosystems in 2026?


What updates are there in the ARB code base?

In 2025, Arbitrum rolled out three major updates focused on syncing with Ethereum, boosting security, and improving scalability.

  1. ArbOS 50 Dia Upgrade (Sept 29, 2025) – Adds compatibility with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, optimizes transaction costs, and introduces new technical features.
  2. $14M Audit Program Launch (Aug 4, 2025) – Provides funding for security audits to support early-stage projects in the Arbitrum ecosystem.
  3. ArbOS 40 Callisto Activation (June 18, 2025) – Brings native account abstraction and advanced signature technology to improve user experience and interoperability.

Deep Dive

1. ArbOS 50 Dia Upgrade (Sept 29, 2025)

What happened: This update aligns Arbitrum One and Nova with Ethereum’s upcoming Fusaka upgrade (expected Q4 2025) and makes transactions more efficient.

Key improvements include:

Why it matters: This upgrade ensures Arbitrum stays fully compatible with Ethereum’s roadmap while lowering transaction costs and improving tools for developers. (Source)

2. $14M Audit Program Launch (Aug 4, 2025)

What happened: Arbitrum dedicated 30 million ARB tokens (about $14 million) to fund security audits for promising new projects.

Program highlights:

Why it matters: This program lowers the security barrier for developers, attracts quality projects, and strengthens the overall safety of the Arbitrum network. (Source)

3. ArbOS 40 Callisto Activation (June 18, 2025)

What happened: This update integrated several Ethereum proposals (EIPs) that enhance account abstraction and interoperability.

Key features:

Why it matters: These improvements simplify wallet usage, lower costs for cross-chain applications, and position Arbitrum as a leader in Layer 2 blockchain innovation. (Source)

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s 2025 updates focus on staying in sync with Ethereum, enhancing security, and empowering developers. With the Fusaka upgrade alignment and a strong audit funding program, Arbitrum is setting itself up as a scalable and secure platform for the next generation of decentralized apps. Will these upgrades speed up adoption as Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem grows?