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Why did the price of ARB fall?

Arbitrum (ARB) dropped 3.34% in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 3.21%. The main reasons are:

  1. Market-wide sell-off – In October, a $19 billion liquidation event hit Layer-2 tokens like ARB the hardest.
  2. Technical challenges – ARB failed to stay above the $0.32 support level and is now trading below important moving averages.
  3. Low market excitement – The Altcoin Season Index is at 28, showing Bitcoin dominance and less interest in alternative coins.

Deep Dive

1. Market Turbulence Spillover (Negative Impact)

Overview: October 2025 was the worst month for crypto since 2022. Announcements about tariffs from the Trump era caused $19 billion in forced sell-offs. Layer-2 tokens, including ARB, dropped as much as 70% (CCN).

What this means: ARB is sensitive to big market shocks because it tends to move more sharply than Ethereum (ETH) or Bitcoin (BTC). Even though ARB gained 3.56% this week, it’s still down nearly 23% for the month. Traders see ARB as a leveraged bet on Ethereum’s weakening position, which is down 12.73% this year.

2. Technical Breakdown (Mixed Signals)

Overview: ARB’s price fell below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.3618 and lost the $0.32 Fibonacci support level. The MACD indicator (+0.0056) shows weak buying momentum, while the RSI at 41.64 indicates neutral market sentiment.

What this means:

What to watch: The daily closing price compared to the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.3195. Staying below this level could lead to further losses.

3. Ecosystem Growth vs. Valuation (Positive Outlook)

Overview: Arbitrum has processed over 2 billion transactions this year and holds $4 billion in total value locked (TVL) (NullTX). However, ARB’s market cap to TVL ratio is 0.43, which is historically low and suggests undervaluation.

What this means: Although the network is growing, ARB’s price hasn’t kept up. This is partly due to low liquidity in altcoins (Bitcoin’s dominance is nearly 59%) and concerns about how many tokens are currently circulating (5.5 billion out of 10 billion total).

Conclusion

ARB’s recent drop is a mix of broader market caution and technical weaknesses, but its strong network fundamentals suggest it might be oversold. Key point to watch: Can ARB hold the $0.30 level before the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on October 29? Falling below this could trigger more selling, while moving back above $0.34 might indicate buyers stepping in.


What could affect the price of ARB?

Arbitrum is working to improve its technology while managing the impact of new token releases on its supply.

  1. Token Unlocks & Supply Impact – A large release of 92 million ARB tokens on November 16 could put downward pressure on prices.
  2. Layer 2 Competition & Real-World Asset Adoption – Base has surpassed Arbitrum in total value locked (TVL), but Arbitrum is growing in tokenized real-world assets.
  3. Protocol Upgrades – Upcoming updates like ArbOS 50 and new zero-knowledge proof technology aim to boost transaction speeds to 100,000 per second.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks & Supply Impact (Potential Negative Effect)

Overview:
On November 16, 92 million ARB tokens (worth about $29 million) will become available. These tokens are part of a schedule that allocates 17.5% of the total supply to investors and 26.9% to the development teams. Currently, 5.5 billion ARB tokens are circulating (about 55% of the total supply), with 3.5 billion held in the DAO’s treasury. If many of these newly unlocked tokens are sold, it could push prices down. However, recent proposals from the DAO aim to carefully manage these tokens to avoid flooding the market (Arbitrum Docs).

What this means:
Past token unlocks, like the $2.2 billion release in March 2024, led to price drops of around 35%. But the DAO has been using some unlocked tokens to fund ecosystem projects, such as $14 million in audit subsidies, which helps reduce selling pressure by supporting growth instead of immediate sales.

2. Layer 2 Competition & Real-World Asset Adoption (Mixed Outlook)

Overview:
Base, another Layer 2 solution, has recently overtaken Arbitrum in total value locked ($4.32 billion vs. $3.86 billion), helped by Coinbase’s retail user base. However, Arbitrum remains strong in decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms like GMX and Aave, and in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). For example, Robinhood has launched over 500 stock tokens on Arbitrum, generating $8.5 million in minted value and pushing TVL to $9.6 billion, a 19.6% increase month-over-month (X @chamexbt6).

What this means:
While Base’s growth challenges Arbitrum’s position, the increasing use of tokenized real-world assets could help Arbitrum maintain its edge. Institutional investors may be attracted by tokenized stocks and perpetual contracts, like Ostium’s $568 million daily trading volume. Success will depend on Ethereum’s overall adoption compared to competitors like Solana and other zero-knowledge rollup solutions.

3. Protocol Upgrades (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
The upcoming ArbOS 50 update, expected in Q4 2025, will introduce quantum-resistant cryptography and align with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade. It will also implement a hybrid zero-knowledge proof system capable of handling 100,000 transactions per second (TPS) and enable cross-layer swaps through Chain Clusters. These upgrades aim to achieve Stage 2 decentralization by 2027 (X @chamexbt6).

What this means:
These improvements could significantly increase Arbitrum’s scalability (from 40,000 to 100,000 TPS) and reduce transaction fees by up to 95%. This would strengthen Arbitrum’s role as Ethereum’s main scaling solution. Similar past upgrades, like Nitro in 2022, led to a 300%+ increase in TVL within months.

Conclusion

Arbitrum faces challenges from upcoming token unlocks and competition from Base, but its growth in real-world asset tokenization and major technical upgrades offer reasons for optimism. The November 16 token unlock and the Q4 ArbOS update are key moments to watch. Will Robinhood’s tokenized stocks create enough demand to balance out the increased supply?


What are people saying about ARB?

The Arbitrum community is feeling a mix of cautious hope and technical doubt. Here’s what’s happening right now:

  1. Price is testing resistance at $0.50 – traders are watching for a move up to $0.77
  2. High volatility – daily price swings of about 6% show a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers
  3. Strong ecosystem – total value locked (TVL) and partnerships help balance out price uncertainty

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: Possible Breakout Above Resistance bullish

“Arbitrum Price Tests $0.50: Are Bulls Ready to Push ARB Toward $0.77?”
– @johnmorganFL (35.3K followers · 55K impressions · August 13, 2025, 11:40 AM UTC)
View original post
What this means: If ARB closes above $0.50, it could trigger a buying frenzy (FOMO). However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71.6 (as of August 14) suggests the price might be overbought and due for a pullback.

2. CoinMarketCap Post: Volatile Week for ARB mixed

“ARB dropped 6% on Monday, bounced back 4% on Sunday, then fell again – sellers are in control but buyers are waiting around $0.313.”
– Anonymous trader (Posted August 5, 2025 · Quality score: 8.0)
View original post
What this means: Short-term sellers are dominating, but the repeated price rebounds between $0.30 and $0.32 suggest that long-term holders are accumulating ARB.

3. CoinMarketCap Post: Strong Layer 2 Ecosystem bullish

“Arbitrum supports over 900 decentralized apps (dApps) with $2.53 billion in total value locked – its fundamentals are stronger than most Ethereum Layer 2 solutions despite price challenges.”
– Ecosystem analyst (Posted August 7, 2025 · Quality score: 8.0)
View original post
What this means: The network is actively used, and upcoming upgrades like Orbit’s Layer 3 expansion and Stylus improvements could increase demand for ARB tokens.

Conclusion

The outlook for ARB is mixed. Technical traders warn that the price might be stretched near $0.50, but the growing ecosystem and rumors of a Robinhood partnership (from June 2025) provide solid support. Keep an eye on the $0.48 to $0.52 range: if ARB stays above this zone, it could confirm a bullish trend. If it falls below, the price might test the $0.30 level again. Also, watch Arbitrum’s TVL trends to see if network activity is driving real demand for the token.


What is the latest news about ARB?

Arbitrum is navigating a challenging market with important developments and cautious optimism. Here are the key updates:

  1. Intuition Launches Mainnet (October 29, 2025) – A new Layer-3 rollup on Arbitrum Orbit focused on verifying AI data goes live.
  2. 2 Billion Transactions Reached (October 27, 2025) – Arbitrum solidifies its position as the busiest Layer-2 network on Ethereum.
  3. Analyst Predicts 200% Price Increase (October 28, 2025) – ARB token shows strong support around $0.30, signaling potential for a big rally.

In-Depth Look

1. Intuition Launches Mainnet (October 29, 2025)

What Happened?
Intuition, a project combining artificial intelligence and blockchain, launched its mainnet on Arbitrum Orbit as a Layer-3 rollup after raising $8.5 million. During testing, it processed 17.5 million transactions. The goal is to build a decentralized system that verifies the trustworthiness of AI data by turning data credibility into tokens.

Why It Matters
This launch adds more variety to the Arbitrum ecosystem, attracting projects that blend AI and blockchain technology. Partnerships with companies like Google Cloud and MetaMask may encourage more developers to build on Arbitrum. However, the success depends on how widely AI applications using this system are adopted. (crypto.news)

2. 2 Billion Transactions Milestone (October 27, 2025)

What Happened?
Arbitrum has now processed over 2 billion transactions on its network. This growth is supported by $4 billion in total value locked (TVL) and 49 active Orbit chains. Popular decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms like GMX and SiloFinance lead the way, while Robinhood uses Arbitrum for trading tokenized stocks in Europe.

Why It Matters
Arbitrum is expanding its use beyond DeFi into more institutional applications, showing growing real-world adoption. Still, newer Layer-2 networks like MegaETH, which recently raised $350 million, present competition that could impact Arbitrum’s market share. (NullTX)

3. Analyst Predicts 200% Rally (October 28, 2025)

What Happened?
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that ARB, Arbitrum’s native token, is holding strong near $0.30 support. He noted the network’s 2 billion transactions and solid fundamentals, suggesting ARB could surge 200% to reach $1 if it breaks resistance between $0.33 and $0.35.

Why It Matters
While the technical outlook is positive, ARB faces challenges from broader market conditions. The token has dropped 36% over the past 60 days amid a general market downturn in October. A price breakout depends on Bitcoin’s stability and improved liquidity in Layer-2 networks. (The Daily Hodl)

Conclusion

Arbitrum is balancing growth in its ecosystem with the realities of a volatile market. Its technical achievements and expanding use cases show promise, but broader crypto market risks remain. The big question is whether AI integrations and increased institutional use can help Arbitrum overcome these challenges.


What is expected in the development of ARB?

Arbitrum’s roadmap is focused on improving technology, growing its ecosystem, and evolving its governance.

  1. Stylus Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025) – Introduce support for smart contracts written in Rust and C++, alongside Solidity.
  2. Arbitrum Orbit Expansion (Ongoing) – Scale custom Layer 2 and Layer 3 chains across different industries.
  3. BoLD Fraud Proofs (Q1 2026) – Implement permissionless validation to boost security.
  4. DAO Governance Innovations (2025-2026) – Simplify proposal processes and improve treasury management.

Deep Dive

1. Stylus Mainnet Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview: Stylus is a new runtime environment that supports WebAssembly (WASM), allowing developers to write smart contracts in popular programming languages like Rust and C++. These contracts will work alongside Ethereum’s existing Solidity contracts. Currently in testing, the mainnet launch aims to cut transaction costs by about 10 times for complex tasks such as decentralized finance (DeFi) derivatives and blockchain gaming.
What this means: This is a positive step for attracting more developers and supporting specialized applications like AI and machine learning on the blockchain. However, there is a risk that the Stylus and existing Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) ecosystems might grow apart, causing fragmentation.

2. Arbitrum Orbit Expansion (Ongoing)

Overview: More than 50 Orbit chains (custom Layer 2 and Layer 3 blockchains) are already live, with over 100 more in development. These chains serve various sectors including DeFi, gaming, and real-world assets (RWA). Recently, DAO votes have allowed Orbit chains to operate on base layers other than Ethereum (Arbitrum Forum).
What this means: This expansion is generally positive for ARB’s usefulness since Orbit chains contribute 8% of their profits back to the DAO. However, competition from other Layer 2 solutions like OP Stack could slow adoption.

3. BoLD Fraud Proofs (Q1 2026)

Overview: BoLD (Bounded Liquidity Delay) introduces a system where anyone can validate transactions to detect fraud, replacing the current Security Council’s role. This change aims to fully decentralize Arbitrum, meeting the “Stage 1” standards set by L2Beat.
What this means: This is good news for censorship resistance and decentralization but might cause slower transaction finality during disputes. It will also require a community of validators to maintain the system’s scalability.

4. DAO Governance Innovations (2025-2026)

Overview: Planned improvements include:

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s roadmap strikes a balance between deep technical upgrades (Stylus, BoLD) and ecosystem growth (Orbit, GCP). Key challenges include potential delays and heavy competition in the Layer 2 space. The big question remains: can Arbitrum’s “rollup-as-a-service” approach lead the way in bringing blockchain technology to real-world use cases?


What updates are there in the ARB code base?

Arbitrum is updating its software to get ready for Ethereum’s upcoming Fusaka upgrade with the release of ArbOS 50 Dia.

  1. ArbOS 50 Dia Proposal (October 24, 2025) – A major update that aligns Arbitrum with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade by adding important Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) and improving efficiency.
  2. Security & Bug Fixes (October 24, 2025) – Fixes for hardware-specific bugs and standardizes how gas fees are calculated.
  3. Constraint-Based Pricing Prep (October 24, 2025) – Sets up the system to support dynamic gas pricing in the future, without changing fees right now.

Deep Dive

1. ArbOS 50 Dia Proposal (October 24, 2025)

Overview: This proposal aims to upgrade Arbitrum One and Nova networks to ArbOS 50 Dia. It includes updates that make Arbitrum compatible with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade and adds new features like Native Mint/Burn for Orbit chains (Arbitrum’s side projects).

Key technical updates include:

What this means: This update is positive for ARB holders because it keeps Arbitrum in sync with Ethereum’s development, improves tools for developers, and enhances interoperability for projects built on Orbit chains. (Source)

2. Security & Bug Fixes (October 24, 2025)

Overview: These fixes address bugs that occur on different computer architectures and improve how gas fees are calculated for certain transactions.

Key changes:

What this means: These fixes don’t directly affect users but improve the stability and reliability of the network, especially for node operators running different hardware setups. (Source)

3. Constraint-Based Pricing Prep (October 24, 2025)

Overview: This update prepares the system to track gas usage more precisely across different areas like computation, storage, and historical data growth.

What this means: This is a positive long-term development because it sets the stage for dynamic gas pricing. Dynamic pricing can help keep transaction fees stable during busy times and improve overall network performance. However, no fee changes will happen immediately. (Source)

Conclusion

Arbitrum is upgrading its codebase to stay aligned with Ethereum’s roadmap and to be more developer-friendly. The focus on modular upgrades, including features specific to Orbit chains, shows a commitment to growing the ecosystem efficiently. The upgrade is expected to activate around December 2025. The question remains whether the DAO governance will continue to support these major upgrades with its current 78% approval rate.