What could affect the price of ARB?

Arbitrum’s price is caught between the positive effects of growing its ecosystem and the risks from increasing token supply.

1. Ecosystem Growth (Positive) – Tokenizing real-world assets and partnering with Robinhood could boost adoption.
2. Token Unlocks (Negative) – 92 million ARB tokens ($26.8 million) will become available on November 16, which may put downward pressure on prices.
3. Technical Upgrades (Mixed) – The upcoming Fusaka upgrade and new hybrid zero-knowledge proofs aim to improve efficiency but come with execution risks.

In-Depth Look

1. Real-World Asset Growth & Partnerships (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Arbitrum currently supports $3.29 billion in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), including over 500 tokenized stocks from Robinhood for European users (CoinMarketCap). The network also reached $18 billion in total value locked (TVL) and processed 108 million transactions in October 2025, setting a new record.

What this means:
More activity with real-world assets means higher revenue for Arbitrum (up 90% year-over-year) and increased liquidity of stablecoins ($9.96 billion on-chain). This creates buying pressure for ARB tokens through fees and staking rewards. However, competitors like Polygon and Avalanche are also targeting real-world assets, which could limit Arbitrum’s growth potential.

2. Token Unlocks and Supply Dynamics (Negative Impact)

Overview:
On November 16, 2025, 92 million ARB tokens (about 1.67% of the total supply) will be unlocked as part of a vesting schedule that will release 2.69 billion tokens to teams and investors by 2027. This will increase the circulating supply by 12% by the end of 2025 (NullTX).

What this means:
Past unlock events have typically led to an 8-12% drop in ARB’s price within 10 days after unlocking (for example, a 35% drop after the March 2024 unlock). Since 74% of current holders are underwater (meaning they bought at a higher price), the new supply could increase selling pressure.

3. Layer 2 Competition & Technical Roadmap (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Arbitrum’s Fusaka upgrade, planned for December 2025, aims to cut fees by 40% and introduce hybrid zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs to improve scalability. However, competitors like zkSync and Coinbase’s Base are gaining ground—Base’s TVL grew 19% month-over-month compared to Arbitrum’s 5% growth (CryptoFrontNews).

What this means:
If the upgrades succeed, Arbitrum could maintain its 36% market share among Layer 2 solutions and generate $1.18 billion in quarterly revenue. But delays or technical issues (such as the Nitro bug in September) could cause investors to move their capital to competitors.

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s future depends on whether adoption of real-world assets can outpace the negative effects of token unlocks. The $0.28 to $0.31 price range (around the 200-day moving average and Fibonacci 0.618 level) is a key support zone. Keep an eye on the November 16 token unlock and the progress of the Fusaka upgrade—they could either solidify Arbitrum’s position as a leading Layer 2 platform or push prices back down toward 2025 lows near $0.135.

Will institutional investors buy ARB ahead of the unlock to get a discount, or will the increase in supply outweigh demand?

What are people saying about ARB?

The Arbitrum (ARB) community is divided between cautious hope and growing concern. Here’s what’s happening right now:

1. Price is testing a key resistance level at $0.50
2. The Arbitrum ecosystem is growing, even though the price is unstable
3. Technical indicators show bearish signs, but some investors remain optimistic for the long term

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: Testing $0.50 Resistance – Positive Signal?

“Arbitrum Price Tests $0.50: Are Bulls Ready to Push ARB Toward $0.77?”
– 35.2K followers · 12.4K impressions · August 13, 2025, 11:40 AM UTC
View original post
What this means: If Arbitrum’s price breaks above $0.50, it could mark the start of an upward trend. But if it fails to hold this level, the price might drop back to around $0.40. A strong rejection here would suggest sellers are still in control.

2. @cryptolover88: Quiet Growth in Arbitrum’s Ecosystem

“Arbitrum builds quietly: Orbit L3s, Stylus upgrades, and ApeChain adoption.”
– 980 followers · 2.1K impressions · October 8, 2025, 4:38 PM UTC
View original post
What this means: Even though the price hasn’t moved much, Arbitrum’s network is expanding with over 900 decentralized apps (dApps) and $2.53 billion in total value locked (TVL). Technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest investors might be accumulating ARB quietly.

3. Community Post: Bearish Price Patterns Continue

ARB dropped 6% on Monday and 5% on Friday, with sellers dominating the market.
– Posted August 5, 2025, 2:55 PM UTC
View original post
What this means: Ongoing selling pressure near the $0.40–$0.43 range shows weak buying interest. If the price closes below $0.313, it could lead to faster declines.

Conclusion

The outlook for Arbitrum is mixed. While the ecosystem is growing and new developer tools are being adopted, technical signals point to bearish momentum. Traders are watching the $0.50 to $0.313 price range closely for clues on the next move. Additionally, rumors about a partnership with Robinhood could spark renewed buying interest if confirmed, especially as the overall market sentiment remains cautious (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 25).

{{technical_analysis_coin_candle_chart}}

What is the latest news about ARB?

Arbitrum is navigating recent market challenges by expanding strategically and growing its ecosystem steadily. Here’s the latest update:

1. Euler DAO Confirms No Exposure to Stream Finance Collapse (Nov 8, 2025) – The protocol remains stable despite risks in the sector.
2. Institutions Increase Investments in Arbitrum After Market Drop (Nov 8, 2025) – New capital coming in shows growing confidence in Arbitrum’s Layer 2 scalability.
3. x402b Payment System Expands on Arbitrum (Nov 7, 2025) – Transparent and low-cost Web3 payments are gaining traction.

In-Depth Look

1. Euler DAO Confirms No Exposure to Stream Finance Collapse (Nov 8, 2025)

Summary: Euler DAO announced that its markets were not affected by the recent $93 million collapse of Stream Finance. Thanks to strong risk controls and a modular market design, the protocol’s isolation features stopped any spillover effects. Reports from Q3 2025 even show growth in Euler’s Arbitrum Yield market.
Why it matters: This reduces worries about widespread risks in Arbitrum’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. It strengthens trust in Arbitrum’s secure and transparent governance, which is good news for developers. However, it also highlights the importance of careful monitoring when protocols depend on each other.
(Source: CoinMarketCap)

2. Institutions Increase Investments in Arbitrum After Market Drop (Nov 8, 2025)

Summary: Following the market correction in October, institutional investors have shifted funds into Arbitrum. Data from Coinbase and Nansen show Arbitrum leading in “smart money” inflows, surpassing competitors like Solana and Binance Smart Chain (BSC). This is largely due to Arbitrum’s compatibility with Ethereum’s technology (EVM) and attractive yield opportunities.
Why it matters: This is a positive sign for ARB’s liquidity and long-term adoption. Institutions prefer Arbitrum’s reliable infrastructure, although competition from other Layer 2 solutions like Base and zkSync remains a challenge.
(Source: CryptoFrontNews)

3. x402b Payment System Expands on Arbitrum (Nov 7, 2025)

Summary: Pieverse has launched its x402b payment system on Arbitrum, enabling transparent, low-cost transactions for online shopping and small payments. Using Arbitrum’s Layer 2 technology, it can handle thousands of transactions per second with fees as low as one cent.
Why it matters: This development boosts ARB’s real-world use cases. Expanding payment options could increase network activity, though the speed of adoption will depend on how quickly merchants start using the system.
(Source: CoinMarketCap)

Conclusion

Arbitrum is strengthening its position as a go-to platform for institutional investment and practical payment solutions, while keeping its DeFi ecosystem resilient. The big question now is whether these positive trends can help ARB recover from its 37% price drop this year. Keep an eye on total value locked (TVL) and developer activity in the coming months to see how the ecosystem evolves.

What is expected in the development of ARB?

Arbitrum’s roadmap is focused on growing its ecosystem, upgrading technology, and improving governance. Here are the key upcoming milestones:

1. Arbitrum Orbit Expansion (Q4 2025) – Scaling Layer 3 (L3) chains through new partnerships.
2. Stylus v2 Launch (Q1 2026) – Better support for multiple programming languages in smart contracts.
3. Security Council Elections (December 2025) – On-chain voting to select new council members.

Deep Dive

1. Arbitrum Orbit Expansion (Q4 2025)

Overview: Arbitrum Orbit lets developers create custom L3 blockchains on top of Arbitrum’s Layer 2 (L2) network. Currently, over 40 chains are live, with more than 100 in development across areas like decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and real-world assets (RWAs). The community-led organization (DAO) is focusing on partnerships with projects like @SX_Network and @plumenetwork to broaden use cases.

What this means: This is positive for ARB because more Orbit chains increase demand for ARB tokens used in governance and transaction fees. However, there is competition from other L3 solutions like zkSync Hyperchains, which could affect how quickly Orbit is adopted.

2. Stylus v2 Launch (Q1 2026)

Overview: Stylus is a tool that allows developers to write smart contracts not just in Solidity (the main Ethereum language) but also in Rust, C++, and other languages. The upcoming v2 upgrade (Arbitrum docs) aims to cut execution costs by about 30% and improve how different virtual machines (VMs) work together.

What this means: This is somewhat positive because supporting more programming languages could attract more developers and increase network use. However, existing apps built only for Ethereum’s Virtual Machine (EVM) might take time to switch over.

3. Security Council Elections (December 2025)

Overview: Arbitrum’s DAO will elect six new members to its Security Council, which handles urgent protocol updates and security issues. To run, candidates must stake 500,000 ARB tokens (Arbitrum governance docs).

What this means: This is neutral for ARB. While better decentralization can improve trust in governance, low voter turnout (currently 28%) might slow down important decisions.

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s roadmap balances technical improvements (like Orbit and Stylus) with stronger governance. With $10.7 billion in total value locked (TVL) on its L2 network as of October 2025, these upgrades could help Arbitrum maintain its lead. However, competition from other platforms like Coinbase’s Base chain may push Arbitrum to roll out new features faster.

What updates are there in the ARB code base?

Arbitrum is making important updates to its technology, focusing on improving security, speeding up transactions, and aligning better with Ethereum’s latest upgrades.

1. ArbOS 50 Dia Proposal (Q4 2025) – Syncs with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, adds new technical features, and makes transactions more efficient.
2. $14M Security Audit Program (July 2025) – Provides funding to help projects review their code and improve network safety.
3. Timeboost Transaction Policy (April 2025) – Introduces a bidding system for faster transaction processing, generating over $2 million in fees.

Deep Dive

1. ArbOS 50 Dia Proposal (Q4 2025)

What it is: This update brings Arbitrum One and Nova in line with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade by adding new features and making the network more efficient.

• Key improvements:
  • EIP-7210: Adds support for a new cryptographic method (secp256r1 curve) used in securing transactions.
  • EIP-7623: Sets a gas limit of 32 million per transaction, matching Arbitrum’s block size.
  • CLZ Opcode: Lowers the computing power needed to count leading zeros in data, saving resources.
  • Constraint-Based Pricing: Tracks gas usage across different resources like computing and storage, paving the way for smarter pricing in the future.
• Why it matters: Developers can build faster and cheaper smart contracts, and users benefit from more stable transaction fees.
  Bottom line: This upgrade strengthens Arbitrum’s position as a top Ethereum scaling solution by improving flexibility and efficiency. (Source)

2. $14M Security Audit Program (July 2025)

What it is: ArbitrumDAO has allocated 30 million ARB tokens (worth about $14 million) to help projects pay for security audits. This lowers the cost for new projects to check their code for vulnerabilities.

• How it works: Projects must use approved audit companies, with oversight from Arbitrum’s Foundation, Offchain Labs, and experts chosen by the DAO.
• Goal: Reduce security risks, build trust, and attract bigger investors.
  Bottom line: This program could encourage more developers to build on Arbitrum by improving security, but its success depends on how well audits are done and how many projects participate. (Source)

3. Timeboost Transaction Policy (April 2025)

What it is: A new system where users can bid for faster transaction processing through “express lanes,” generating over $2 million in fees for the network.

• How it works: Users participate in sealed auctions to get priority for their transactions, with the fees going to Arbitrum’s DAO treasury.
• Usage: Handles about 20–30% of daily decentralized exchange (DEX) volume on Arbitrum.
  Bottom line: This improves network revenue and user experience by speeding up transactions, though some worry it could lead to centralization. (Source)

Conclusion

Arbitrum is actively upgrading its technology to stay aligned with Ethereum, boost security, and make transactions faster and cheaper. The upcoming ArbOS 50 Dia update and ongoing audit funding show a strong focus on growth and reliability. With record transaction volumes hitting 108 million in October 2025, the question remains: can ARB’s technical progress help its price recover despite the uncertain market?

Why did the price of ARB fall?

Arbitrum (ARB) dropped 3.42% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.78%. The main reasons include weak price trends, fallout from problems in the DeFi sector, and lower demand for altcoins.

1. Technical resistance: Price hit a key moving average at $0.312 and was pushed back
2. DeFi concerns: The $93 million collapse of Stream Finance scared Layer 2 investors
3. Altcoin sell-off: Money moved into Bitcoin, which now dominates 59.27% of the market

Deep Dive

1. Technical Weakness (Negative Signal)

Overview:
ARB is trading below its 30-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), currently at $0.312 and $0.399 respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 45.5, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bearish crossover risk.

What this means:
The price couldn’t stay above the important $0.30 level, causing some traders to sell to limit losses. Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, the next support level is around $0.285. Trading volume is low (13.7% turnover), meaning fewer buyers and sellers, which can make price drops more severe.

What to watch:
If ARB falls below $0.285, selling pressure could increase, potentially pushing the price down to the 2025 low of $0.242.

2. Stream Finance Fallout (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
On November 7, Stream Finance collapsed, losing $93 million. This event raised fears about risks in decentralized finance (DeFi), even though Euler DAO confirmed it had no exposure to Stream Finance.

What this means:
Although Arbitrum’s ecosystem is not directly affected (Euler Labs statement), traders sold ARB tokens due to general anxiety in the DeFi space. This coincided with a 25% drop in ARB’s 24-hour trading volume to $221 million, showing investors’ caution.

3. Altcoin Sentiment Drain (Negative Signal)

Overview:
The Altcoin Season Index fell 15% this week to 28 out of 100, indicating investors are moving money from altcoins to Bitcoin. ARB’s correlation with Ethereum dropped to 0.72 over the past 30 days.

What this means:
Institutional investors are favoring Ethereum and Bitcoin (Coinbase report), leaving Layer 2 tokens like ARB at a disadvantage. ARB’s price has fallen 29.4% in the last 30 days, compared to Ethereum’s 17.4% drop, confirming this shift.

Conclusion

ARB’s recent decline is due to technical weaknesses, concerns about DeFi risks, and a general lack of interest in altcoins. While there are positive long-term factors, such as Robinhood’s integration of real-world assets (Yahoo Finance), short-term market sentiment remains fragile.

Key watch: Can ARB maintain support at $0.285, especially with a $98 million options expiry happening today?