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What could affect the price of ARB?

Arbitrum is at a crucial point this year, with growing adoption but also stronger competition.

  1. Real-World Payments Growth: The Ingenico partnership could increase transaction volume, which is good news for ARB demand.
  2. Layer 2 Competition: Rivals like ZKsync and Polygon are expanding quickly, which could challenge Arbitrum’s market share if it doesn’t keep up.
  3. Technical Outlook: Short-term signals show potential gains, but the long-term trend still looks weak.

Deep Dive

1. Real-World Payments Integration (Positive Impact)

Overview: Ingenico, a major payment provider, has teamed up with WalletConnect Pay to allow stablecoin payments at over 40 million physical retail locations. Arbitrum is one of the supported networks for settling these payments. This feature launched on January 13, 2026, enabling merchants to accept USDC and USDT payments through wallets like MetaMask and Trust Wallet on Arbitrum. Because transaction fees on Arbitrum are lower than traditional card networks, this could speed up adoption if more payment providers offer this option.
Ingenico
What this means: More transactions mean higher demand for ARB tokens to pay network fees, which could push prices up. If Arbitrum becomes a go-to platform for real-world crypto payments, it could attract more developers and users.

2. Rising Layer 2 Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Competitors like ZKsync and Polygon are making big moves into real-world assets and payment solutions. ZKsync plans to support native real-world assets and reach over 100,000 transactions per second in 2026. Polygon has acquired regulated payment companies to strengthen its position in the U.S. stablecoin market. These efforts could cut into Arbitrum’s current lead in transaction volume.
ZKsync, Polygon
What this means: If Arbitrum doesn’t respond effectively, it could lose fee revenue and developer interest, which would hurt ARB. On the other hand, growing competition might expand the overall Layer 2 market, benefiting established platforms with solid infrastructure.

3. Technical and Sentiment Positioning (Mixed Impact)

Overview: ARB is currently priced at $0.223, above its 30-day moving average of $0.199, with positive momentum indicators suggesting short-term gains. However, the 200-day moving average sits much higher at $0.351, indicating a longer-term downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.56, showing moderate strength but no clear breakout.
What this means: Technical signals support a possible short-term price increase if the broader altcoin market rallies. But for a sustained recovery, ARB needs to break past the 200-day moving average, which it has failed to do twice in late 2025.

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s future price depends on turning real-world payment adoption into ongoing network use while competing against aggressive rivals. Watch transaction numbers in early 2026 after the Ingenico launch for signs of growth.
Will Arbitrum secure a first-mover advantage in physical retail crypto payments before competitors catch up?


What are people saying about ARB?

Conversations around Arbitrum (ARB) mix short-term price expectations with long-term confidence. Here’s what’s trending right now:

  1. Optimistic traders expect ARB to reach $0.28 by February.
  2. Long-term holders believe ARB could hit $3 by 2030 despite current price weakness.
  3. Technical indicators warn of a possible drop below $0.19.
  4. Strong fundamentals support ARB even though the price is lagging.

1. @bpaynews: ARB price could hit $0.25–$0.28 by February

"$ARB Price Prediction: Targets $0.25-$0.28 by February Amid Mixed Technical Signals"
– @bpaynews (2,028 followers · 2026-01-12 08:53 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for ARB, suggesting a potential 25–40% increase from current prices. If ARB breaks through the $0.21 resistance level, it could attract momentum traders.

2. @CryptoAxtrol: Long-term outlook sees ARB at $3 by 2030, despite current weakness

"Price is weak. Usage is strong. Builders are active. Arbitrum is a long-term network, not a short-term trade."
– @CryptoAxtrol (13,225 followers · 2026-01-12 19:21 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a balanced view. While ARB’s adoption metrics—like $3 billion in total value locked (TVL) and increasing transactions—show strong growth potential, the current bearish market sentiment may delay price gains.

3. @RipBullWinkle: Key ARB support at $0.19, resistance at $0.23 signals caution

"As long as $0.19 holds, bulls have control. If that cracks, expect a fast momentum shift."
– @RipBullWinkle (130,594 followers · 2025-12-22 02:12 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign for ARB in the short term. The price is trading below bearish moving average crossovers and has a neutral relative strength index (RSI). If the $0.19 support breaks, ARB could drop as much as 40% to around $0.11.

4. @AskGigabrain: Strong ARB fundamentals despite mixed price action

"$ARB at $0.204 despite strong metrics: Rumble's 58M user integration [...] $0.201 is key support; reclaiming $0.21 confirms bullish momentum."
– @AskGigabrain (13,231 followers · 2026-01-13 07:56 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is encouraging for ARB. Real-world partnerships and over $100 million in liquidity suggest the coin is undervalued. Holding above $0.21 could trigger upward momentum.

Conclusion

The outlook for ARB is mixed. Technical analysis points to caution around the $0.19 support level, while the growing ecosystem and long-term demand for scalability offer reasons for optimism. Watch the $0.19 to $0.21 price range closely—breaking above this zone could confirm a bullish trend, while falling below may lead to sharp sell-offs.


What is the latest news about ARB?

Arbitrum is growing its ecosystem while managing concerns about upcoming token unlocks. Here are the key updates:

  1. Stablecoin Payments Now Available (January 13, 2026) – Over 40 million retail payment terminals now accept stablecoin payments on the Arbitrum network, thanks to a partnership with Ingenico.
  2. Polygon Acquires Wallet Technology (January 13, 2026) – Arbitrum gains cross-chain payment capabilities through integration with the Sequence wallet, following Polygon Labs’ acquisition.
  3. 92.65 Million ARB Tokens Unlock Soon (January 16, 2026) – A token release equal to 1.86% of the supply could cause short-term price swings despite strong fundamentals.

In-Depth Look

1. Stablecoin Payments Now Available (January 13, 2026)

What happened: Ingenico, a global payment technology company, integrated WalletConnect Pay into its network of over 40 million point-of-sale (POS) terminals worldwide. This allows merchants to accept payments in stablecoins like USDC and EURC on Arbitrum, Base, and Polygon blockchains. Importantly, merchants don’t need to upgrade their hardware to offer this option.

Why it matters: This is a positive development for Arbitrum (ARB) because it increases the real-world use of transactions settled on its network. Since stablecoin payments typically have lower fees compared to traditional card networks, more merchants might adopt this payment method. However, the overall success depends on payment providers enabling and promoting this feature. (CoinMarketCap)

2. Polygon Acquires Wallet Technology (January 13, 2026)

What happened: Polygon Labs invested $250 million to acquire Sequence, a wallet technology company. This acquisition brings cross-chain wallet infrastructure to Arbitrum, allowing users to make one-click transactions across multiple Ethereum Layer 2 networks.

Why it matters: This move is neutral to positive for ARB. Improved interoperability can increase network usage by making it easier for users to transact across different blockchains. However, since Polygon is expanding its dominance in Layer 2 solutions, it could potentially reduce Arbitrum’s market share over time. (CryptoNews)

3. 92.65 Million ARB Tokens Unlock Soon (January 16, 2026)

What happened: On January 16, 2026, 92.65 million ARB tokens (worth about $18.9 million) allocated to teams and advisors will become available. This follows a previous unlock in December of 123.5 million tokens, which led to a 9% price drop.

Why it matters: This token unlock could put downward pressure on ARB’s price in the short term. Although the unlocked tokens represent only 1.86% of the total supply, holders might sell their tokens in a market with low liquidity, causing price volatility. Watch the $0.20 price level as support—if it breaks, the price could fall back to December’s low of $0.19. (CoinMarketCal)

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s new retail payment options and Polygon’s cross-chain wallet technology show growing adoption of the network. However, the upcoming token unlock in January may challenge investor confidence. Despite ARB’s 32% drop over the past year, it still leads in Layer 2 transaction volume. The big question for 2026 is whether increased real-world use can balance out the effects of token inflation.


What is expected in the development of ARB?

Arbitrum is moving forward with several key updates planned for 2026:

  1. ArbOS Dia Upgrade (Q1 2026) – This update aims to make transaction fees more stable, align with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, and add tools suited for businesses.
  2. Gaming Catalyst Program (2026) – A $215 million fund to boost the growth of blockchain-based gaming on Arbitrum.
  3. Arbitrum Orbit Expansion (2026) – Over 100 custom blockchains will use Arbitrum’s technology, focusing on areas like decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world assets (RWAs), and artificial intelligence (AI).
  4. Security Council Elections (January 2026) – On-chain voting to refresh the group that oversees Arbitrum’s security and emergency decisions.

Deep Dive

1. ArbOS Dia Upgrade (Q1 2026)

Overview:
This upgrade is designed to make transaction fees (called gas fees) more predictable and improve network speed by syncing with Ethereum’s Fusaka update (Arbitrum tweet). It also adds better support for business applications and improves mobile use.

What this means:
More stable fees could attract larger companies and institutional users to Arbitrum, which is good news for ARB token holders. However, if Ethereum’s own updates are delayed, this could slow down Arbitrum’s progress.

2. Gaming Catalyst Program (2026)

Overview:
Arbitrum is dedicating $215 million in grants to support game developers and infrastructure projects, building on its growing presence in blockchain gaming seen in 2025 (cryptojosh101 tweet).

What this means:
This program could help expand Arbitrum’s ecosystem by attracting more gamers and developers. The key to success will be keeping users engaged after initial incentives like airdrops end. Important metrics to watch include the number of daily active gaming wallets and how widely development tools (SDKs) are adopted.

3. Arbitrum Orbit Expansion (2026)

Overview:
More than 100 custom blockchains are now built using Arbitrum’s Orbit technology, which allows for app-specific rollups—specialized chains optimized for particular uses. Notable adopters include Robinhood and Ethereal (zaimiri tweet).

What this means:
This expansion helps diversify Arbitrum’s revenue and use cases, which is positive. However, competition from other technologies like zkRollups (for example, zkSync) could create challenges for maintaining profit margins.

4. Security Council Elections (January 2026)

Overview:
Arbitrum’s decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) will hold elections to replace half of its Security Council members. This council plays a key role in managing emergency upgrades to the protocol (Arbitrum DAO docs).

What this means:
If the election process is smooth, it could strengthen Arbitrum’s governance and decentralization. But if disagreements arise, it might cause uncertainty or slow down decision-making.

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s 2026 plans focus on improving scalability (with ArbOS), growing its ecosystem (through gaming and Orbit), and maturing its governance. While these technical upgrades align with Ethereum’s roadmap, there are risks from competition and execution challenges. The big question remains: Can Arbitrum turn its current liquidity leadership into steady revenue beyond just speculative trading?

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What updates are there in the ARB code base?

Arbitrum’s software is getting important upgrades that improve how it scales, stays secure, and works smoothly with Ethereum.

  1. ArbOS 50 Dia (December 2025) – A major update that syncs Arbitrum with Ethereum’s Fusaka hard fork.
  2. Audit Program Q1 Report (January 9, 2026) – 11 projects passed security checks, with $548,000 invested in audits.
  3. Constraint-Based Pricing (December 2025) – Sets the stage for smarter, flexible gas fees.

Deep Dive

1. ArbOS 50 Dia (December 2025)

Overview:
ArbOS 50 Dia brings Arbitrum in line with Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, adds new cryptographic tools, and makes transactions more gas-efficient.

Key updates:

Why it matters:
This update is positive for ARB because it ensures Arbitrum stays compatible with Ethereum’s future plans, lowers costs for complex operations, and boosts network reliability. (Source)

2. Arbitrum Audit Program Q1 (January 9, 2026)

Overview:
The Arbitrum DAO funded security audits for 11 early projects, with 5 audits finished and 6 in progress.

Key facts:

Why it matters:
This is good news for ARB because it improves the security of the ecosystem, attracts quality developers, and lowers the risk of hacks—important for keeping Arbitrum a leader in decentralized finance (DeFi). (Source)

3. Constraint-Based Pricing Framework (December 2025)

Overview:
ArbOS 50 adds tools to separately track gas used for computing, storage, and data history.

Key points:

Why it matters:
This is a cautiously optimistic update for ARB because it could lead to more stable and fair gas prices during busy times and improve overall network efficiency. More testing is needed before it fully rolls out. (Source)

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s latest updates focus on syncing with Ethereum’s roadmap, boosting security through audits, and setting up smarter gas pricing. With over 1,000 apps live and more than 40 blockchains using its technology, these improvements strengthen Arbitrum’s position as a top Layer 2 solution. The new constraint-based pricing could be key to helping Arbitrum handle over 2 billion transactions smoothly in the future.


Why did the price of ARB go up?

Arbitrum (ARB) increased by 9.29% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 3.8%. This follows a 7.11% gain over the past 30 days, showing growing momentum. The main reasons for this growth are:

  1. Real-world payments integration – Ingenico now supports stablecoin payments through Arbitrum at over 40 million retail terminals.
  2. Technical breakout – ARB’s price moved above important resistance levels with strong momentum signals.
  3. Sector rotation – Investors are moving funds into Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum as interest in alternative cryptocurrencies improves (+33% monthly).

1. Payments Integration (Positive Impact)

What happened: Ingenico teamed up with WalletConnect Pay to allow stablecoin payments (USDC, USDT, EURC) at more than 40 million point-of-sale terminals worldwide, using Arbitrum, Ethereum, and Polygon networks. These payments settle directly on the blockchain, avoiding traditional card networks and lowering fees.
Why it matters: This move brings cryptocurrency payments into everyday retail, which could increase the use of Arbitrum’s network and stablecoins. More transactions mean higher fee revenue and greater demand for ARB tokens. Easier real-world payments may attract more users and merchants, supporting ARB’s value.

2. Technical Momentum (Positive Impact)

What happened: ARB’s price rose above its 7-day and 30-day simple moving averages ($0.209 and $0.199), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.63, indicating strong but not overbought momentum. The MACD indicator also supports an upward trend.
Why it matters: Breaking past the key $0.22 price level triggered automated buying and attracted short-term traders. Trading volume nearly doubled to $161 million in 24 hours, confirming the strength of this price move and lowering the chance of a quick drop.

Conclusion

Arbitrum’s recent price increase is driven by real-world adoption through payments integration and strong technical signals. This shows growing use beyond just speculation. While broader market conditions and competition among Layer 2 solutions remain factors to watch, the Ingenico partnership could speed up real-world use of Arbitrum.
What to watch: Keep an eye on Arbitrum’s stablecoin transaction volume and daily active users this week to see if adoption continues to grow.