What could affect the price of IOTA?

IOTA's price is influenced by a mix of technology upgrades and cautious market sentiment.

1. Rebased Upgrade Impact – Improvements in scalability and staking adoption
2. Real-World Adoption – Trade partnerships versus developer activity
3. Regulatory Moves – Progress on compliance and risks from global regulations

Deep Dive

1. Rebased Network Effects (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The Rebased upgrade, launched in May 2025, brought new features like staking with annual returns of 10–15%, smart contracts through MoveVM, and decentralized validation. About 45% of IOTA’s circulating supply is now staked, but daily transactions are still 75% lower than before the upgrade (DeFi Llama).

What this means:
Staking could help stabilize IOTA’s price in the short term by encouraging holders to keep their coins locked up. However, the significant drop in transaction activity (down 86% since June) raises concerns that if validators start leaving, it could trigger sell-offs. The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.183 acts as a resistance level to watch.

2. Trade & IoT Adoption (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview:
IOTA’s Trade Logistics Information Network (TWIN), developed with the World Economic Forum, aims to digitize $19 billion worth of trade in Africa by 2026. Early pilot programs have already cut document processing times by 80% (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
If successful, this real-world use case could increase demand for IOTA by driving practical utility. However, the process of tokenizing trade assets like bills of lading is still in its early stages. Keep an eye on updates in the first quarter of 2026, especially regarding partnerships with Trademark Africa.

3. Regulatory Hurdles (Bearish Risk)

Overview:
IOTA is working to meet UK and EU crypto regulations by integrating compliance tools such as Lukka’s anti-money laundering (AML) solutions. Still, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing “data tokens,” which could affect how IOTA is classified.

What this means:
Obtaining clear regulatory approval, like the license from Abu Dhabi’s ADGM, would encourage institutional investors to enter the market. On the other hand, ongoing regulatory uncertainty could delay projects involving real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which are important for IOTA’s value growth.

Conclusion

IOTA’s price depends on turning the technical improvements from the Rebased upgrade into real-world adoption, especially in trade digitization and decentralized finance (DeFi). While staking and partnerships offer potential growth, low developer activity and regulatory uncertainties limit short-term gains. Will TWIN’s goal of increasing trade volume in 2026 be enough to counteract the decline in transaction activity on the network?

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What are people saying about IOTA?

IOTA’s buzz swings between excitement over upgrades and concerns about price drops. Here’s the quick take:

1. Traders are watching for a breakout above $0.21 after a strong setup in August
2. The recent Rebased upgrade faced challenges, with the price dropping 41% after launch
3. The TWIN Foundation launch with the World Economic Forum (WEF) adds credibility for real-world use
4. Staking is strong at 43% participation, with holders earning about 13% annual returns

Deep Dive

1. @iota: TWIN Foundation Goes Global — Positive Outlook

On May 8, 2025, IOTA announced a partnership with the World Economic Forum to build decentralized trade systems aimed at improving supply chain transparency.
– @iota (294K followers · 12K impressions · 2025-05-08 13:05 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for IOTA’s adoption by businesses. Collaborations with Trademark Africa and trade pilots in the UK and EU show growing trust in IOTA’s technology for tracking supply chains.

2. @CryptoSignals: $0.208 Support Holds — Positive Signal

On August 17, 2025, a trading alert noted that IOTA was in an accumulation phase, with a target price of $0.2150 if the $0.208 support level holds.
– @CryptoSignals (32K followers · 8.7K impressions · 2025-08-17 04:29 UTC)
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What this means: This suggests short-term optimism. The price is near its 50-day moving average of $0.132, but low trading volume (down 39% in 24 hours) means there’s some risk that the price might not move as expected.

3. CoinJournal: Post-Upgrade Slump — Negative Outlook

On June 25, 2025, CoinJournal reported that active addresses on the IOTA network dropped by half after the Rebased upgrade, with an 86% decline in transactions.
– CoinJournal (Verified Publisher · 2025-06-25 13:39 UTC)
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What this means: This is a bearish sign for network use. Despite 45% of tokens being staked, the total value locked (TVL) is only $9.76 million, indicating weak development of decentralized apps (dApps) after the upgrade.

Conclusion

The overall view on IOTA is mixed. There’s optimism around new business partnerships and staking rewards, but concerns remain about adoption following the upgrade. Keep an eye on the $0.132 support level (the current price) and the upcoming MOVEATHON Europe developer submissions deadline on November 16 for clues on future momentum.

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What is the latest news about IOTA?

IOTA is gaining momentum among developers and in real-world applications. Here’s what’s new:

1. MOVEATHON Europe Launch (November 10, 2025) – A competition offering $150,000 in prizes for developers building scalable decentralized apps (dApps).
2. BuildSphere Event (November 12, 2025) – A live demonstration of IOTA Playground, a browser-based tool for developing smart contracts using Move.
3. WEF TradeTech Sandbox Feature (November 10, 2025) – IOTA is helping digitize trade flows in Africa through a partnership with the World Economic Forum and TradeMark Africa.

Deep Dive

1. MOVEATHON Europe Launch (November 10, 2025)

What’s happening: IOTA, together with AngelHack, is hosting MOVEATHON Europe, a hackathon where developers create decentralized applications using IOTA’s unique Tangle technology. The competition closes on November 16, with $150,000 in prizes available for projects in areas like decentralized finance (DeFi), Internet of Things (IoT), and sustainability. More than 300 developers have already signed up.
Why it matters: This event encourages practical projects that use IOTA’s technology, helping grow its developer community and increasing the platform’s long-term usefulness. (IOTA)

2. BuildSphere Event (November 12, 2025)

What’s happening: IOTA showcased its Playground tool, which lets developers write and test smart contracts directly in a web browser using the Move programming language. This makes it easier for developers to start building on IOTA without complicated setups.
Why it matters: By simplifying the development process, IOTA hopes to speed up the creation of new decentralized apps. This could improve developer adoption, addressing past concerns about how accessible the platform is. (IOTA)

3. WEF TradeTech Sandbox Feature (November 10, 2025)

What’s happening: IOTA’s work with the World Economic Forum and TradeMark Africa was featured in a report highlighting how they are digitizing supply chains in Africa. Using IOTA’s secure data technology, goods are tracked from Kenya all the way to Europe.
Why it matters: This partnership shows that major organizations trust IOTA’s technology for real-world business solutions, boosting its reputation and potential for wider enterprise use. (IOTA)

Conclusion

IOTA is making progress by engaging developers through competitions and easier tools, while also proving its value in real-world trade projects. These efforts could help the platform grow both its community and practical use cases. The key question remains: will increased developer activity lead to lasting growth on the IOTA network?

What is expected in the development of IOTA?

IOTA’s development is moving forward with these key milestones:

1. MOVEATHON Europe Submissions Close (November 16, 2025) – Last chance for developers to compete for $150,000 in prizes.
2. Trust Framework Expansion (Q1 2026) – Growing tools for decentralized identity, notarization, and tokenization.
3. Business Innovation Program Pilots (2026) – Real-world projects using IOTA’s technology.
4. IOTA EVM Enhancements (2026) – Better compatibility and performance for Ethereum-based apps.

Deep Dive

1. MOVEATHON Europe Submissions Close (November 16, 2025)

Overview: The MOVEATHON hackathon invites developers to create decentralized apps (dApps) on IOTA’s scalable platform. Focus areas include decentralized finance (DeFi), Internet of Things (IoT), and supply chain solutions. Developers compete for $150,000 in prizes.
What this means: This event encourages more developers to build on IOTA, which can lead to new and useful applications. It helps grow the IOTA community and ecosystem. However, there is a chance some projects may face delays after the hackathon ends.

2. Trust Framework Expansion (Q1 2026)

Overview: IOTA’s Trust Framework includes tools for decentralized identity, notarization (verifying documents), and tokenization (turning assets into digital tokens). The upcoming expansion will make these tools more widely available. Recently, IOTA released Identity v1.6-beta, which supports self-sovereign identity solutions (IOTA).
What this means: These tools are designed for businesses and institutions, helping them securely manage identities and assets. This could lead to more companies adopting IOTA’s technology. However, regulatory challenges might slow down widespread use.

3. Business Innovation Program Pilots (2026)

Overview: IOTA’s Business Innovation Program supports pilot projects like GLC Recycle’s Digital Product Passport (IOTA), which tracks products for sustainability and trade. The program aims to expand into various industries.
What this means: Real-world projects show how IOTA’s technology can be applied practically. This is a positive sign, but success depends on how well partners execute and market demand.

4. IOTA EVM Enhancements (2026)

Overview: IOTA plans to improve its Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility, making it easier for developers familiar with Ethereum to build on IOTA. Recent upgrades, like Protocol v10, have increased transaction speeds to 50,000 transactions per second (IOTA).
What this means: Better EVM support can attract more decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible token (NFT) projects to IOTA. However, IOTA will face competition from other blockchains that also support EVM.

Conclusion

IOTA’s roadmap focuses on engaging developers (MOVEATHON), expanding infrastructure (Trust Framework and EVM), and encouraging real-world use (Business Innovation Program). These technical advances could boost IOTA’s usefulness, but overall success will depend on market interest and adoption speed. IOTA’s emphasis on regulated, enterprise-ready solutions may help it stand out in the crowded blockchain space.

What updates are there in the IOTA code base?

IOTA’s software is actively being improved with important updates that boost its ability to scale, enhance security, and provide better tools for developers.

1. Starfish Consensus (Sept 10, 2025) – A new experimental method to speed up block processing, especially during network attacks.
2. Wallet v1.3.0 (Sept 3, 2025) – Better handling of NFTs and easier access to developer guides.
3. Mainnet v1.6.1 (Sept 10, 2025) – Added command-line tools for IOTA-Names and improved how validators earn commissions.

Deep Dive

1. Starfish Consensus (September 10, 2025)

What it is: This update introduces an experimental system that separates the way block headers (summary info) and full block data are shared across the network. The goal is to reduce delays when the network is under heavy stress or attack.

The Starfish protocol helps the network stay strong by quickly verifying block headers before processing all the data. This approach reduces slowdowns caused by attacks like DDoS, while keeping transaction speed steady.

Why it matters: This is a positive development for IOTA because it can make the network more stable and faster during busy times, which is important for businesses relying on it. (Source)

2. Wallet v1.3.0 (September 3, 2025)

What it is: This update improves how the wallet manages NFTs (digital collectibles) and updates documentation links for developers.

It fixes issues caused by very long asset names and includes the latest IOTA-Names SDK (v0.3.0), making it easier to work with decentralized naming services.

Why it matters: This update mainly helps developers who build NFT applications on IOTA. It doesn’t directly affect the network’s speed or security but improves usability. (Source)

3. Mainnet Node v1.6.1 (September 10, 2025)

What it is: This release expands the validator group to 80 members and introduces a more efficient method for ordering transactions (IIP-3).

Adding more validators increases decentralization, making the network more secure. The new transaction ordering method improves how quickly transactions are processed.

Why it matters: This is good news for IOTA because it strengthens security and scalability, which are essential for real-world Internet of Things (IoT) and trade applications. (Source)

Conclusion

IOTA’s recent updates focus on making the network more scalable and developer-friendly, preparing it for use in enterprise-level projects. With improvements in decentralization and network resilience, it will be interesting to see how the experimental Starfish protocol affects validator participation in 2026.

Why did the price of IOTA fall?

IOTA (IOTA) dropped 0.7% in the last 24 hours, following a slight overall crypto market decline of 0.08%. Over the past week, IOTA’s price has fallen about 4.7%. This is due to technical resistance levels, slow growth in decentralized finance (DeFi), and ongoing doubts about how quickly it will be widely adopted.

1. Technical Resistance (Negative Impact)
2. Slow DeFi Growth (Mixed Impact)
3. Cautious Market Environment (Negative Impact)

In-Depth Analysis

1. Technical Resistance (Negative Impact)

Summary: IOTA is struggling to rise above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is around $0.183. Currently, the price is at $0.133 and stuck below important Fibonacci retracement levels, especially the 23.6% level at $0.146. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 43.34, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative.

What this means: Traders are likely holding back or taking profits until IOTA breaks above the $0.145 to $0.155 range. Trading volume has dropped 36% in the last day to $10.5 million, showing weak buying interest and increasing the chance of further price drops.

What to watch: If IOTA can close above the 200-day SMA for a sustained period, it could boost confidence and reverse the downtrend. If not, the price might test the July low of $0.117 again.

2. Slow DeFi Growth (Mixed Impact)

Summary: IOTA’s recent Rebased upgrade allows users to stake tokens with an approximate 15% annual percentage rate (APR), and there are DeFi applications like Swirl and Pools Finance. However, total value locked (TVL) in IOTA’s DeFi ecosystem is still low at $36 million, even after peaking in August 2025. Competing platforms like Solana and SUI have much higher developer activity.

What this means: While staking locks up 45% of IOTA’s circulating tokens, the slow adoption of DeFi services means bearish views persist. The number of active users has dropped by 50% since July, indicating less retail interest.

What to watch: New projects, such as real-world asset (RWA) tokenization pilots with TradeFlow, could increase usage if they come with incentives to add liquidity.

3. Cautious Market Environment (Negative Impact)

Summary: The overall crypto market is in a state of “Extreme Fear,” according to the CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index, which is at 18. The total market capitalization has fallen 5.6% over the past week. Bitcoin’s dominance at 58.8% suggests investors are moving funds away from alternative coins like IOTA.

What this means: IOTA’s price movement is closely linked to Ethereum and other mid-sized cryptocurrencies, which have also declined (Ethereum down 6.7% weekly). Low liquidity, with a turnover ratio of 1.9%, makes IOTA more vulnerable to market downturns.

Conclusion

IOTA’s recent price drop is driven by technical challenges, slow growth in its ecosystem, and a cautious overall market. While staking options and partnerships with companies like TWIN Global (focused on trade digitization) offer promising long-term prospects, short-term price recovery depends on breaking above $0.145.

Key point to watch: Can IOTA maintain support at $0.13, especially as Binance’s locked staking products offering 29.9% APR may absorb selling pressure?