Why did the price of TRX fall?
TRON (TRX) dropped 1.36% in the last 24 hours, performing better than the overall crypto market, which fell by 4.19%. Here’s why:
- Technical Resistance Hit – TRX price stalled at $0.334, a key resistance level based on Fibonacci analysis.
- Profit-Taking by Big Holders – Long-term investors recently cashed out $1.4 billion in profits.
- Network Fee Reduction Effects – TRON cut staking fees by 60% on August 29, lowering rewards and possibly causing some short-term selling.
Deep Dive
1. Technical Resistance Clash (Bearish Impact)
TRX hit a price ceiling at $0.334, which matches an important Fibonacci retracement level and the upper Bollinger Band, technical tools traders use to predict price movements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 46.98, but the MACD indicator shows signs of bearish momentum.
What this means: Traders often sell when prices hit resistance to lock in profits, creating downward pressure. Since TRX is trading below its 7-day moving average ($0.342), short-term sentiment is cautious.
Watch this: If TRX closes above $0.334, it could spark buying interest. If not, the price might drop to the $0.30 support level.
2. Whale Profit-Taking & Staking Risks (Mixed Impact)
Large holders, often called whales, have taken $1.4 billion in profits over the past month, according to IntoTheBlock. At the same time, TRON’s recent 60% cut in staking fees means validators earn less, which might encourage some to stop staking and sell their coins.
What this means: Profit-taking by whales adds selling pressure. While lower fees could attract more users in the long run, the immediate effect is less income for those who help secure the network, causing some uncertainty.
Watch this: Keep an eye on TRX’s coin burn rate (currently 1.2 billion per month) and staking participation (47.1%). Drops in these numbers could indicate weakening network health.
3. Altcoin Rotation & Market Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
The Altcoin Season Index dropped from 77 to 72, showing investors are moving money away from mid-sized coins like TRX toward newer trends such as AI and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN). Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance rose to 58.14%, signaling a more cautious market mood.
What this means: TRX’s weekly decline of 4.56% fits the broader trend of altcoins underperforming. Regulatory uncertainties, like delayed stablecoin rules in Canada, also weigh on coins focused on practical uses like TRON.
Conclusion
TRX’s recent decline is due to a combination of hitting technical resistance, profit-taking by big holders, and a cautious market environment. Despite this, TRON’s strong position in USDT settlements (worth $600 billion) and PayPal’s integration of its stablecoin PYUSD (Bitget) provide promising long-term potential.
Watch closely: Can TRX maintain support at $0.30 as Bitcoin dominance rises? Also, look out for U.S. GDP data releases after September 25, which could impact TRON’s network activity.
What could affect the price of TRX?
TRON is growing its ecosystem while facing regulatory challenges.
- Upcoming Upgrades & Token Burn – The mainnet 4.8.0 upgrade and plans to reduce token supply could make TRX more valuable.
- Stablecoin Strength – TRON handles over half of all USDT transfers, which boosts its usefulness but also draws regulatory attention.
- Regulatory Risks – Ongoing SEC lawsuits and progress on ETFs and IPOs create uncertain price movements.
Deep Dive
1. Protocol Upgrades & Tokenomics (Positive Outlook)
Overview:
In June 2025, the TRON community approved Proposal 102, which cuts block rewards in half (from 16 to 8 TRX) and reduces voting rewards by 20% (from 160 to 128 TRX). This change aims to increase the annual reduction in TRX supply from 0.85% to 1.29%. Additionally, the upcoming mainnet upgrade version 4.8.0 (GitHub) will improve compatibility with Ethereum through the Cancun upgrade, making it easier for developers who work with Ethereum to build on TRON.
What this means:
By slowing the growth of new TRX tokens, the supply becomes tighter, which could help support TRX’s price around $0.334 if demand stays steady. Past token burns (over 99 billion ERC-20 TRX removed) have already made TRX more scarce. The technical upgrades may also open up new opportunities, like cross-chain decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.
2. Stablecoin Leadership vs. Regulatory Risks (Mixed Outlook)
Overview:
TRON processes about $21.3 billion daily in USDT transfers, holding a 60% market share. It also recently added support for PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin through LayerZero technology. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is suing TRON, claiming TRX is an unregistered security (SEC filing). Meanwhile, new stablecoin regulations in Canada could challenge Tether’s dominance on TRON.
What this means:
The widespread use of stablecoins on TRON generates network fees and encourages adoption, but regulatory actions against USDT, Tether, or TRX could disrupt liquidity and user confidence. The recent release of U.S. GDP data on TRON shows some institutional trust but doesn’t eliminate legal uncertainties.
3. Market Sentiment & Altcoin Season Trends (Neutral Outlook)
Overview:
TRX currently shows neutral trading momentum, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 49.16, and is trading above a key support level at $0.321. The Altcoin Season Index is at 72, down from 77 last week, indicating that investors might still move money into riskier altcoins.
What this means:
If TRX breaks above its 200-day moving average at $0.296, it could rise toward $0.369 based on technical analysis. However, a 33% drop in DeFi total value locked (TVL) in the first half of 2025 and a 7.73% monthly decline in trading volume suggest retail interest may be fading.
Conclusion
TRON’s future price depends on how well it balances its role as a stablecoin platform with meeting regulatory requirements. Keep an eye on how the mainnet upgrade is adopted after the June 23 vote and developments in the SEC lawsuit. TRX’s connection to its Nasdaq-listed company, Tron Inc., might help reduce legal risks and attract more institutional investors.
What are people saying about TRX?
The TRON community is discussing whether its strong position in stablecoins and recent developments can help TRX push past $0.45. Here’s what’s happening:
- Big investors (whales) are targeting $0.45, even though there’s selling pressure around $0.30
- Excitement about TRON’s potential NASDAQ listing hasn’t yet boosted the price much
- A $1 billion buyback plan is encouraging some investors to accumulate TRX
Deep Dive
1. @BlockNews: Mixed views on $0.45 target
“TRON is holding steady at $0.33, using $0.30–$0.31 as a support level... but liquidity near the bottom is still uncertain.”
– BlockNews (X followers N/A · 2.1M impressions · August 9, 2025)
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What this means: Some investors are optimistic that TRX can reach new highs, but others worry about selling pressure around $0.30–$0.31 that could hold the price back.
2. @Coinpedia: Institutional interest looks positive
TRON Inc.’s upcoming NASDAQ listing (through a merger with SRM) and a $1 billion plan to buy back TRX are seen as positive for the long term. However, TRX’s price only rose about 5% after the announcement.
– Coinpedia (August 12, 2025 · 1.2M article views)
What this means: Big companies might start buying TRX for their treasury holdings, which could increase demand over time. But short-term traders are hoping for quicker price gains.
3. @CryptoQuant: Profit-taking signals caution
Glassnode data shows that holders from 2020–2021 cashed out $1.4 billion worth of TRX profits in August 2025 — the second-largest sell-off this year.
– CryptoQuant (August 6, 2025 · 950K impressions)
What this means: Some early investors are selling to take profits, which puts downward pressure on the price. Still, TRX’s 122% gain over the past year suggests new buyers are stepping in to buy.
Conclusion
The outlook for TRX is mixed. On one hand, strong network fundamentals like stablecoin dominance and the NASDAQ connection are positive. On the other, resistance around $0.30–$0.35 and selling by large holders create uncertainty. Watch this price range closely this week: breaking above it could confirm a bullish trend, while failing might lead to more selling. For more detailed tracking, check TRX’s exchange net flow to see how whales are accumulating or selling.
What is the latest news about TRX?
TRON gains momentum with U.S. government support and growing stablecoin use, while recent fee cuts bring mixed reactions.
- GDP Data on TRON (Sept 15, 2025) – The U.S. Department of Commerce uses TRON for sharing GDP data.
- Cross-Chain Expansion (Aug 26, 2025) – TRON connects with over 30 blockchains through deBridge integration.
- Fee Reduction Impact (Aug 29, 2025) – A 60% cut in energy fees boosts usage but lowers revenue.
Deep Dive
1. GDP Data on TRON (September 15, 2025)
Overview:
The U.S. Department of Commerce started publishing quarterly GDP figures (Q2 growth: +3.3%) on the TRON blockchain. This is the first time a U.S. government agency has integrated blockchain technology into national economic reporting. It highlights TRON’s strong security and ability to handle large-scale data, opening doors for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications like tokenizing real-world assets.
What this means:
This is a positive sign for TRON (TRX) as it shows growing acceptance by institutions. However, it may also lead to closer regulatory attention. The partnership suggests blockchain is moving beyond finance into core government infrastructure, which could encourage developers to create new tools like GDP-based prediction markets.
(Source)
2. Cross-Chain Expansion (August 26, 2025)
Overview:
TRON integrated with deBridge, a platform that allows TRC-20 stablecoins (such as USDT) to move seamlessly between TRON, Solana, Ethereum, and over 25 other blockchains. This follows MetaMask’s addition of native TRON support in August.
What this means:
This development is somewhat positive for TRON. It strengthens TRON’s position in cross-border payments by improving interoperability. However, it also puts TRON in more direct competition with other Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum. According to TRONSCAN, daily USDT transfers on TRON already exceed $600 billion.
(Source)
3. Fee Reduction Impact (August 29, 2025)
Overview:
TRON reduced energy fees by 60% through Proposal 789, bringing the average cost of TRC-20 transactions down to just $0.01. While this encourages more transactions, it also caused a 40% drop in monthly protocol revenue because fewer tokens are being burned.
What this means:
The impact is mixed for TRON. Lower fees could increase stablecoin usage—TRON currently hosts over half (50.6%) of all USDT tokens. However, less token burning might limit upward price movement. TRON founder Justin Sun says the fee cut focuses on long-term growth rather than short-term profits.
(Source)
Conclusion
TRON’s collaboration with the U.S. government and its progress in connecting multiple blockchains reinforce its leadership in stablecoins. However, the recent fee reductions challenge its economic model. It remains to be seen if TRX’s deflationary features—like a 0.2% quarterly drop in circulating supply—can balance out the reduced token burns. Keep an eye on Q3 revenue and the adoption of USD1 stablecoins following a $50 million mint in September.
What is expected in the development of TRX?
TRON is making important updates with these key milestones:
- Mainnet v4.8.0 Upgrade (Q3 2025) – Better compatibility with Ethereum and stronger network security.
- Cross-Chain Expansion with deBridge (September 2025) – Connects TRON with Solana and over 25 other blockchains.
- USDD 2.0 & USD1 Stablecoin Growth (Ongoing) – Decentralized stablecoin management and incentives to boost liquidity.
In-Depth Look
1. Mainnet v4.8.0 Upgrade (Q3 2025)
Overview:
TRON’s upcoming v4.8.0 upgrade will include improvements originally developed for Ethereum, like EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding). These changes help lower transaction costs on Layer 2 solutions, which are secondary networks designed to make blockchain transactions faster and cheaper. The upgrade also enhances the network’s security to better protect against attacks where bad actors try to control more than half of the network’s power. Voting by TRON’s Super Representatives started in June 2025, with the upgrade expected to launch by late Q3.
What this means:
This is positive news for TRX holders because it makes TRON more compatible with Ethereum-based decentralized apps (dApps) and improves overall network stability. However, there is a chance of delays if some network operators experience technical issues during the upgrade.
2. Cross-Chain Expansion with deBridge (September 2025)
Overview:
TRON has teamed up with deBridge to allow easy transfer of assets across more than 25 blockchains, including Solana (source). This partnership follows a 60% fee cut implemented in August 2025 (Proposal No. 789) aimed at attracting more developers to the platform.
What this means:
This development is somewhat positive, as it could increase TRON’s role in decentralized finance (DeFi) across multiple blockchains. Still, TRON faces competition from other cross-chain platforms like LayerZero, which may affect how widely this feature is adopted.
3. USDD 2.0 & USD1 Stablecoin Growth (Ongoing)
Overview:
TRON’s algorithmic stablecoin USDD moved to a decentralized governance model in 2025. Meanwhile, USD1, a regulated stablecoin, has grown to over $50 million in circulation. JustLend DAO’s Phase IX mining offers flexible interest rates to encourage more liquidity on the platform.
What this means:
This is good for TRX’s usefulness since stablecoins like USDD and USD1 help increase transaction volume on the network. However, regulatory challenges could slow down USD1’s growth.
Conclusion
TRON’s plan focuses on improving technology, expanding cross-chain connections, and growing its stablecoin ecosystem to strengthen its position as a payment infrastructure. While progress is clear, it’s important to watch for risks like regulatory issues and competition.
What to watch: Will TRON’s fee cuts and deBridge integration lead to noticeable growth in decentralized finance activity by the end of 2025?
What updates are there in the TRX code base?
TRON’s latest updates focus on making it easier to work across different blockchains, improving token features, and lowering transaction costs.
- Mainnet v4.8.0 Update (June 2025) – Brings in Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade to boost cross-chain compatibility.
- TRC-404 Token Standard (September 2025) – A new token type that allows owning parts of NFTs.
- Energy Cost Reduction (September 2025) – Cuts TRX transaction fees by half through protocol improvements.
Deep Dive
1. Mainnet v4.8.0 Update (June 2025)
What it is: This upgrade brings TRON closer to Ethereum’s Cancun improvements, making it easier and cheaper to interact between TRON and Ethereum-based apps.
It includes a feature called EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding), which lowers the cost of storing data needed for certain scaling solutions called rollups. For TRON users, this means smoother and less expensive cross-chain transactions. The update also speeds up block validation by about 15%, making the network more efficient.
Why it matters: This positions TRON as a key bridge between major blockchain networks, potentially attracting developers from Ethereum who want lower fees. (Source)
2. TRC-404 Token Standard (September 2025)
What it is: TRC-404 combines features from TRON’s existing token standards to allow fractional ownership of NFTs—meaning you can own and trade pieces of an NFT instead of the whole thing.
Inspired by Ethereum’s similar ERC-404 standard, this lets users split an expensive NFT into smaller, more affordable parts. For example, a $10,000 NFT could be divided into 1,000 tokens worth $10 each, which can be traded on decentralized exchanges. Early tests showed a 40% boost in NFT trading activity on TRON’s test network.
Why it matters: This could breathe new life into TRON’s NFT market, which already has over 2 million holders. While adoption is still uncertain, it’s a promising innovation for TRON’s ecosystem. (Source)
3. Energy Cost Reduction (September 2025)
What it is: TRON reduced the energy cost (a resource needed to run smart contracts) from 210 to 100 sun, cutting fees by about 52%.
This change came after a community vote and followed earlier reductions in energy rental prices on JustLend DAO, TRON’s decentralized finance platform. The update also made it easier to delegate energy, simplifying how users share resources.
Why it matters: Lower fees encourage more developers and users to build and use decentralized apps on TRON, which already handles over 8 million transactions daily. (Source)
Conclusion
TRON’s recent updates focus on improving cross-chain compatibility, innovating NFT ownership, and making transactions more affordable. These changes support TRON’s goal to lead in stablecoins and decentralized finance. With fees now 50% lower than earlier in 2025, the big question is: will TRON’s developer activity surpass Ethereum’s in 2026?