What could affect the price of TRX?
TRON’s price is caught between growing adoption and challenges in the broader crypto market.
- Lower Fees & More Users – Cutting fees by 60% could encourage more use but might increase the total supply of TRX.
- Stablecoin Leader – TRON handles half of all USDT transactions, but competitors like Solana are gaining ground.
- Regulatory Pressure – The SEC’s decision on a TRX-based ETF could be a major turning point.
Deep Dive
1. Network Fee Reduction & Adoption (Mixed Impact)
Overview: In August 2025, TRON reduced transaction fees by 60% through Proposal 789 to attract more users and developers. This led to a jump in daily transactions to 8.8 million. However, some experts warn that lower fees mean fewer TRX tokens are burned, which could increase the overall supply over time (CoinDesk).
What this means: Lower fees can boost usage in the short term—like the $15.8 billion processed through GasFree wallets—but if transaction growth slows, the reduced token burning might limit price gains.
2. Stablecoin Leadership vs. Competition (Bullish)
Overview: TRON currently hosts $82.6 billion worth of USDT, making up 51% of the global supply, and settled $3.6 trillion in transactions during the first half of 2025. Still, Ethereum and Solana are increasing their share, with Solana’s USDC volume growing 40% year-over-year (CryptoRank).
What this means: TRON’s early lead in low-cost USDT transfers gives it a strong position, but if it doesn’t keep innovating, competitors could chip away at its $5.5 trillion yearly transaction volume.
3. Regulatory Risks & Institutional Moves (Bearish)
Overview: The SEC is reviewing Canary Capital’s application for a staked TRX ETF, with a decision expected by late 2025. TRON’s Nasdaq listing has increased its credibility but also brought attention to past regulatory issues involving founder Justin Sun (Decrypt).
What this means: Approval of the ETF could bring more institutional investors, but ongoing regulatory uncertainty or enforcement actions might reduce market enthusiasm.
Conclusion
TRX’s future depends on balancing its strong position in USDT transactions against risks from fee-related inflation and regulatory decisions. The $0.33–$0.35 price range is a key technical level to watch, along with the SEC’s ETF ruling and USDT adoption trends in late 2025. The big question: Can TRON keep its 70% share of stablecoin transactions if overall market sentiment weakens?
What are people saying about TRX?
TRON’s price is hovering around $0.30 as buyers and sellers debate over big investor moves, chart patterns, and real-world use. Here’s what’s happening:
- Price resistance near $0.30
- Large investors buying below $0.28
- Cup-and-handle pattern points to $0.45
- Nasdaq listing boosts institutional interest
- Asian investors shifting from TRON to Ethereum (ETH)
In-Depth Look
1. $0.30 Resistance Battle
According to CoinMarketCap, TRON is aiming for the $0.295–$0.30 range, but there are many sell orders stacked at $0.30. Daily transactions have doubled since 2023, yet reaching $0.30 might lead some investors to take profits.
What this means: There’s mixed sentiment. While there’s buying momentum, a large amount of TRON (3.2 billion TRX) is waiting to be sold at $0.30, creating strong resistance.
2. Whale Buying Below $0.28
BlockNews reports strong buying interest between $0.30 and $0.31, which could push TRON’s price up to $0.45. Big investors, known as whales, have purchased 72.49 billion TRX (about 85% of the supply) since June 2025.
What this means: This is a positive sign. Whale accumulation shows confidence in TRON’s role in stablecoins, especially since it handles 63% of the global USDT (Tether) volume.
3. Asian Whales Moving from TRON to ETH
ShisuiXBT notes that many large Asian investors are selling TRON to buy Ethereum (ETH), following Tether’s shift toward Ethereum. TRON’s share of USDT transactions has dropped 7% since June.
What this means: This is a bearish signal for TRON. Institutional investors moving funds to Ethereum could reduce TRON’s liquidity, even though TRON still processes $21.5 billion daily compared to Ethereum’s $8.5 billion.
4. Nasdaq Listing Sparks Interest
MEXC_Official shares that TRON Inc. was relisted on Nasdaq with 365 million TRX held in treasury. Tokenized stock futures linked to TRON now trade with $4 million in daily volume.
What this means: This is a bullish development. Being the first blockchain-related company listed on Nasdaq adds credibility, although TRON’s price has stayed mostly steady since the announcement.
5. Cup-and-Handle Pattern Points to $0.45
Levex Research highlights a classic cup-and-handle chart pattern on TRON’s weekly chart, targeting a price of $0.45. Similar volume slowdowns in 2021 and 2024 were followed by rallies over 140%.
What this means: This is a positive technical sign. If TRON holds above $0.30, it could see significant gains. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71.53 suggests the coin might be overbought and due for a pullback.
Conclusion
The outlook for TRON (TRX) is mixed. On one hand, big investors are buying and the stablecoin use case is strong, supporting higher prices. On the other hand, resistance at $0.30 and some investors shifting to Ethereum call for caution. Watch the weekly close at $0.30 closely — a clear break above could trigger a buying frenzy, while failure might lead to a drop back to $0.27. The big question remains: will TRON’s Nasdaq momentum keep pace with Ethereum’s growing ETF popularity?
What is the latest news about TRX?
TRON is balancing its leadership in stablecoins with important regulatory developments and new ecosystem improvements. Here’s the latest update:
- HTX Boosts USDD Ecosystem (October 11, 2025) – A new set of incentives aims to increase the use and liquidity of TRON’s stablecoin, USDD.
- Indian Court Holds WazirX Responsible (October 11, 2025) – A legal decision sets a precedent for crypto exchange accountability, affecting TRON’s regulatory environment.
- TRON’s USDT Supply Reaches $78.5 Billion (October 10, 2025) – Growing network activity is driving TRX adoption as a leading stablecoin platform.
In-Depth Look
1. HTX Boosts USDD Ecosystem (October 11, 2025)
What Happened
HTX, a cryptocurrency exchange, launched a 10-day campaign to encourage more use of USDD, TRON’s stablecoin. The campaign offers 10% annual returns through SmartEarn, 2% cashback on transfers, and a $30,000 prize pool for trading. The updated USDD 2.0 also supports liquidity across different blockchains and smarter collateral management.
Why It Matters
This is good news for TRON (TRX) because it encourages more people to use USDD, helping TRON strengthen its position in the $304 billion stablecoin market. More activity in decentralized finance (DeFi) could lead to higher TRX token usage and network fees, benefiting the ecosystem. However, TRON still faces competition from other stablecoins like USDC and USDe.
(Decrypt)
2. Indian Court Holds WazirX Responsible (October 11, 2025)
What Happened
India’s Bombay High Court ruled that Zanmai Labs, the operator of the WazirX exchange, must protect over $5 million in user funds frozen after a hack in 2024. The court declared that crypto exchanges have a fiduciary duty, meaning they must follow strict rules to safeguard customer assets.
Why It Matters
This ruling doesn’t directly involve TRON but affects exchanges that list TRX. It signals increased regulatory oversight, which could raise costs for exchanges like WazirX in the short term. In the long run, clearer rules might help attract institutional investors to TRON and the broader crypto market.
(Bitcoin.com)
3. TRON’s USDT Supply Reaches $78.5 Billion (October 10, 2025)
What Happened
The amount of USDT (Tether) circulating on the TRON network has grown dramatically—by 309 times since 2019—to $78.58 billion. TRON now hosts 58% of all USDT tokens. This growth is linked to TRX’s price increase from $0.0155 to $0.323, thanks to TRON’s low fees and fast transaction speeds.
Why It Matters
This is positive for TRON because being the main stablecoin platform means it earns transaction fees and attracts developers. If this growth continues and Bitcoin’s market stabilizes, TRX’s price could rise to between $0.35 and $0.40. However, TRON’s reliance on USDT means it could be affected by regulatory issues facing Tether.
(NewsBTC)
Conclusion
TRON is strengthening its role as a leader in stablecoins while adapting to new regulations. The expansion of USDD and dominance of USDT show its growing use for transactions. At the same time, legal rulings on exchange responsibilities highlight ongoing compliance challenges. The big question is whether TRON will use this growing liquidity to expand into real-world assets (RWA) or integrate with emerging technologies like AI.
What is expected in the development of TRX?
TRON’s roadmap highlights key upgrades to its technology, growth in stablecoins, and expanding its global reach. Important upcoming events include:
- Mainnet v4.8.0 Upgrade (June 2025) – Better security and easier connections with other blockchains.
- USDD 2.0 Mining Expansion (September 2025) – New rewards to encourage more people to provide liquidity.
- Eco Star Program Revamp (September 2025) – Increased rewards for community members who create helpful content.
Deep Dive
1. Mainnet v4.8.0 Upgrade (June 2025)
Overview:
TRON’s community-approved v4.8.0 upgrade includes improvements originally developed for Ethereum, like EIP-4844, which help lower costs for Layer 2 solutions (these are ways to make transactions faster and cheaper). It also improves security to protect against attacks and makes transactions more reliable.
What this means:
This upgrade is a positive sign for TRX because it helps TRON connect smoothly with other major blockchains, attracting developers from Ethereum and increasing its usefulness. The main risk is potential delays during the update process.
2. USDD 2.0 Mining Expansion (September 2025)
Overview:
On September 13, 2025, JustLend DAO launched Phase IX of USDD 2.0 mining, offering tiered annual percentage yields (APY) to encourage more liquidity (money available for trading). At the same time, the supply of the USD1 stablecoin grew past $50 million through World Liberty Financial.
What this means:
This is good news for TRX because TRON’s stablecoins handle over $600 billion in transactions, making it a key player in global payments. However, algorithmic stablecoins like USDD face ongoing regulatory scrutiny, which is something to watch.
3. Eco Star Program Revamp (September 2025)
Overview:
TRON DAO updated its Eco Star program to reward creators who produce popular content, tutorials, and promote the TRON ecosystem. This effort complements offline events like Justin Sun’s keynote at TOKEN2049 Singapore in October 2025.
What this means:
This is somewhat positive for TRX since encouraging community involvement can help increase adoption, but the program’s success depends on continued participation.
Conclusion
TRON’s roadmap combines important technical upgrades, growth in stablecoins, and community incentives to strengthen its position in global finance. With increasing interest from U.S. institutions (such as GDP data integration) and efforts to connect with other blockchains, TRX is becoming more versatile. Will TRON’s focus on real-world assets and regulatory compliance drive its next phase of growth?
What updates are there in the TRX code base?
TRON’s recent software updates focus on making it easier for developers to build on the platform, improving data access, and reducing transaction costs.
- Hardhat-TRON Plugin (Sept 13, 2025) – Ethereum developers can now easily launch decentralized apps (dApps) on TRON.
- Substreams Integration (July 9, 2025) – Real-time blockchain data streaming powered by The Graph.
- Mainnet 4.8.0 Proposal (June 23, 2025) – Upgrades for Ethereum Cancun compatibility and better network consensus.
Deep Dive
1. Hardhat-TRON Plugin (September 13, 2025)
What it is: This tool lets developers who are familiar with Ethereum use their existing skills and tools to build and deploy dApps on TRON. Hardhat is a popular toolkit for Ethereum, and this plugin bridges it with TRON’s system.
Developers can keep using their usual scripts and tests, while compiling smart contracts with TRON’s version of Solidity (the programming language for smart contracts). Deploying to TRON’s test network or main network is now just one click away. This makes it easier for projects focused on decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to launch on TRON.
Why it matters: This update lowers the learning curve for Ethereum developers, encouraging more projects to come to TRON. With transaction fees around $0.01 and the ability to handle over 2,000 transactions per second, TRON becomes an attractive option for fast and affordable dApps.
(Source)
2. Substreams Integration (July 9, 2025)
What it is: TRON partnered with The Graph to offer real-time streaming of blockchain data. This means developers can instantly access information like wallet activity and token trades without building complex backend systems.
Substreams enable the creation of live dashboards, AI tools, and analytics apps. TRON supports this with documentation in multiple languages and hackathon events to encourage developer participation.
Why it matters: This feature improves the tools available to developers, which can help build better DeFi applications and improve cross-chain interactions. Since TRON dominates the USDT stablecoin market with $82 billion in circulation, better data access could strengthen its ecosystem. Adoption will determine how impactful this is.
(Source)
3. Mainnet 4.8.0 Proposal (June 23, 2025)
What it is: This proposed upgrade aligns TRON with Ethereum’s upcoming Cancun hard fork, adding new virtual machine instructions and improving how the network verifies transactions.
The update supports Ethereum’s EIP-4844 (also known as proto-danksharding), which is designed to make data handling more efficient. It also refines consensus mechanisms to reduce errors when validating blocks.
Why it matters: Aligning with Ethereum’s upgrades makes TRON more appealing to developers who work with Ethereum-compatible tools. Improved consensus means the network can be more reliable and secure, supporting its large user base of over 329 million accounts. The community voted in favor, and activation will follow testing.
(Source)
Conclusion
TRON’s latest updates focus on connecting better with Ethereum, improving developer tools, and providing real-time data access. These improvements position TRON as a strong platform for stablecoins and cross-chain DeFi projects. The question now is whether these upgrades will help TRON become a key infrastructure for tokenizing real-world assets.
Why did the price of TRX go up?
TRON (TRX) increased by 3.67% in the last 24 hours, despite a 4.96% drop over the past week. This movement aligns with a broader crypto market rebound, where the total market cap rose by 6.58%. Key factors behind TRON’s recent performance include:
- Strong Support at $0.30 – TRON maintained this important price level even as many other altcoins dropped, showing resilience.
- Boost from USDD Stablecoin Ecosystem – Incentives from the HTX exchange helped increase the use of TRON’s stablecoin.
- Strength Against Bitcoin (BTC) – The TRX/BTC trading pair rose by 2.1%, as investors moved funds into altcoins seen as safer bets.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Holding the $0.30 Support Level (Positive Sign)
Summary: TRON’s price stayed steady at $0.30 during a market-wide drop on October 11–12, when other coins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) fell by 12.5% and 16%, respectively. Meanwhile, TRX’s value against Bitcoin increased by 2.1%, contrasting with Ethereum’s 3.86% decline against BTC (AMBCrypto).
Why it matters: The $0.30 price point has acted as a psychological floor since July. There was little panic selling, and TRON’s important role in stablecoin transactions (handling about half of USDT volume) helped keep the price stable.
What to watch: If TRON’s price moves above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.3365 and stays there, it could indicate a positive trend reversal.
2. Growth in the USDD Stablecoin Ecosystem (Mixed Impact)
Summary: The HTX exchange launched a campaign from October 11 to 21 offering attractive rewards like 10% annual percentage yield (APY) for staking, 2% cashback on transfers, and trading bonuses to encourage use of USDD, TRON’s decentralized stablecoin (Decrypt).
Why it matters: Increased use of USDD could drive more activity on the TRON network and raise demand for TRX tokens used to pay transaction fees (“gas”). However, USDD’s market cap of $14 billion is still much smaller than USDT’s $179 billion, so the campaign’s success depends on ongoing user participation.
3. TRX Showing Strength Compared to Bitcoin (Positive Indicator)
Summary: During the October 11–12 sell-off, TRX’s value against Bitcoin rose by 2.1%, as investors preferred altcoins less affected by Bitcoin’s price swings. TRON is currently only 12.57% below its all-time high and has outperformed many other Layer-1 blockchain tokens this year, gaining over 100%.
Why it matters: TRON’s relative stability during market downturns highlights its role as a reliable platform for stablecoins and payment applications. However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.36 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -0.0023 suggest caution, as they still show bearish signals on daily charts.
Conclusion
TRON’s recent 24-hour price increase is supported by strong technical defense at $0.30, strategic incentives for its USDD stablecoin, and investor interest in altcoins with practical use cases. Although trading volume remains modest (24-hour turnover at 3.73%), maintaining a price above $0.32 could lead to testing the $0.33 to $0.35 range.
Key point to watch: Will TRON close above its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.3317 by October 14? Doing so would confirm short-term bullish momentum.