Why did the price of TRX fall?

TRON (TRX) dropped 1.6% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 0.97%. Here’s why:

1. Technical weakness – TRX is trading below important moving averages, indicating downward momentum.
2. Stablecoin competition – BNB Chain has surpassed TRON in stablecoin activity, lowering demand on TRON’s network.
3. Economic uncertainty – Debates over Federal Reserve rate cuts and changes in U.S. liquidity have made investors cautious.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
TRX’s price fell below its 7-day and 30-day simple moving averages (around $0.29), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.66, showing selling pressure. Support is expected near $0.287 based on Fibonacci retracement levels.

What this means:
When a coin’s price drops below key moving averages, traders often see it as a sign to sell or reduce holdings. The absence of positive signals, like a rising MACD histogram, adds to the selling pressure.

What to watch:
If TRX can close above $0.295 and hold, it might reverse this downtrend. But if it falls below $0.287, it could test a lower support level near $0.277, the low from 2025.

2. Stablecoin Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
BNB Chain recently overtook TRON in the number of active stablecoin addresses, challenging TRON’s position as the top network for USDT transactions (Demether).

What this means:
TRON still handles about 45% of all USDT transactions worldwide, with roughly $21 billion in daily volume. However, the shift toward BNB Chain suggests less demand on TRON’s network, which could affect TRX’s usage.

3. Economic Uncertainty (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
After the U.S. government injected liquidity following a shutdown and with ongoing uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate cuts, investors have become more cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to “Extreme Fear” (17/100), putting pressure on altcoins like TRX.

What this means:
TRX’s price movement is increasingly tied to Bitcoin, with a 90-day correlation of 0.65, making it vulnerable when Bitcoin falls. Additionally, stablecoin inflows on TRON are growing slowly (1.2% month-over-month) compared to BNB Chain’s 8.9%, adding to the downside risk.

Conclusion

TRX’s recent decline is driven by technical setbacks, increased competition from BNB Chain in stablecoin activity, and broader economic concerns. While TRON’s ongoing infrastructure improvements, such as The Graph integration, support its long-term potential, short-term market sentiment remains weak.

What to watch: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on November 17 for insights into future Fed liquidity policies.

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What could affect the price of TRX?

TRON’s price depends on stablecoin use, regulatory changes, and network improvements.

1. Stablecoin Liquidity – USDT’s dominance supports TRX’s use but faces growing competition.
2. Regulatory Risks – SEC scrutiny and global rules create price swings.
3. Network Upgrades – AI features and better data tools could attract more developers.

Deep Dive

1. Stablecoin Dominance & Competition (Positive/Negative)

Overview:
TRON handles over $78 billion in USDT (which is 61% of all USDT) and processes about $6–7 trillion per year in stablecoin transfers. Its low fees and fast transactions make it popular for cross-border payments, especially in developing countries. But platforms like Solana and Ethereum are increasing their stablecoin activity, with new players like PayPal launching PYUSD, which challenges TRON’s position.

What this means:

• Positive: If USDT demand stays strong, TRX’s use and price could rise.
• Negative: New competitors like Plasma (Bitfinex’s zero-fee blockchain) might take market share away from TRON.

2. Regulatory Scrutiny & Compliance (Risk Factor)

Overview:
TRON is under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over whether TRX should be classified as a security. On the positive side, TRON partners with Tether and TRM Labs to freeze over $250 million in illicit funds, showing efforts to comply with regulations. Also, the U.S. Department of Commerce uses TRON to store GDP data, which adds legitimacy.

What this means:

• Clearer regulations could make TRX more attractive to institutional investors.
• A negative ruling from the SEC could cause sharp price drops, similar to the -15% monthly decline seen in 2023.

3. Technical Upgrades & AI Integration (Growth Opportunity)

Overview:
TRON’s v4.8.0 mainnet upgrade in June 2025 improved compatibility with Ethereum, making it easier for developers to build on TRON. The Graph’s Token API (released November 2025) simplified access to blockchain data. The #AINFT Roadmap plans to add AI-powered analytics and decentralized AI models by 2026.

What this means:

• Better developer tools could bring more decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset (RWA) projects to TRON, increasing demand for TRX.
• If TRON can’t successfully build out its AI infrastructure, growth could slow down.

Conclusion

TRX’s future price will depend on how well it balances its role in stablecoin transactions with regulatory challenges and technological innovation. Keep an eye on USDT usage trends, SEC decisions, and progress in AI integration. Will TRON’s focus on enterprise-level data tools strengthen its place in Web3 finance, or will competition and regulation limit its growth?

What are people saying about TRX?

The TRON community is divided between hopes for a price breakout and concerns about potential traps. Here’s what’s trending:

1. $0.30 resistance level in focus – Buyers are aiming for a breakout, but experts warn of possible pitfalls.
2. $1 billion buyback plan – TRON Inc. is buying back tokens, which is encouraging for investors.
3. Technical signals mixed – Some chart patterns suggest gains, but indicators warn the price might be overextended.

In-Depth Look

1. @johnmorganFL: $1 Billion Buyback Sparks Optimism Bullish

“TRON Inc. Plans $1B Buyback of 3.1B TRX Tokens Amid Price Resilience at $0.33”
– @johnmorganFL (35.1K followers · 498K impressions · July 31, 2025, 4:23 PM UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is positive news for TRON (TRX). When a company buys back its own tokens, it reduces the number available on the market. If demand stays steady, this can push the price higher.

2. CoinMarketCap Community: $0.30 Breakout or Trap? Mixed Signals

“TRON Eyes $0.30 — But Caution Ahead […] $0.30 zone is packed with liquidity traps.”
– CoinMarketCap post (930M+ monthly users · July 6, 2025, 10:32 AM UTC)
View original post
What this means: The price moving toward $0.30 could lead to a rally, but there’s a risk of sudden sell-offs near this level. Traders should be careful as stop-loss orders might trigger sharp drops.

3. @Arielessayshelp: Technical Charts Favor Buyers Bullish

“TRX is forming a classic cup pattern […] Targets: $0.3262, $0.3807, $0.4336”
– @Arielessayshelp (56.4K followers · November 12, 2025, 7:49 AM UTC)
View original post
What this means: This chart pattern often signals a potential price increase. However, strong trading volume is needed to confirm this trend.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook for TRON is cautiously optimistic. The $1 billion buyback and positive chart patterns support upward momentum, but the price is near a key resistance at $0.30 and the RSI indicator shows it might be overbought. Keep an eye on the RSI (currently 71.72) and trading volume around $0.293. A close above $0.30 could spark a buying frenzy, while failure to break through might lead to profit-taking.

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What is the latest news about TRX?

TRON is gaining momentum thanks to its strong position in stablecoins and new partnerships that make its platform more useful for developers. Here’s the latest update:

1. The Graph Integration (November 13, 2025) – New data tools are now available for developers building on TRON.
2. Pact Swap Cross-Chain Milestone (November 13, 2025) – TRX is now part of a network that allows swapping across multiple blockchains with fees 95% lower than usual.
3. Q3 2025 Growth Report (November 13, 2025) – TRON reached record numbers in USDT stablecoin use and transaction volume.

Deep Dive

1. The Graph Integration (November 13, 2025)

Overview: The Graph has launched its Token API for TRON, which gives developers quick access to important blockchain data like account balances, token prices, and decentralized exchange (DEX) swaps. This helps companies build TRON-based apps faster and with data streams that can be customized and meet compliance standards.

What this means: This is good news for TRON because it makes it easier for big companies to use the platform, especially in areas like payment processing, decentralized finance (DeFi), and AI-powered data analysis. Having scalable and reliable data tools could help TRON play a bigger role in turning real-world assets into digital tokens. (CryptoSlate)

2. Pact Swap Cross-Chain Milestone (November 13, 2025)

Overview: Pact Swap has added TRON to its bridgeless cross-chain network, allowing TRX to be swapped across 10 different blockchains, including Dogecoin and Polygon. The fees for these swaps are 95% lower compared to popular platforms like PancakeSwap.

What this means: This improves TRON’s ability to work with other blockchains, solving a common problem where liquidity (the availability of tokens to trade) is spread out too thinly. Lower fees make TRX more attractive for small transactions and users in emerging markets. (Cointribune)

3. Q3 2025 Growth Report (November 13, 2025)

Overview: In the third quarter of 2025, TRON processed 821 million transactions, with $78 billion worth of USDT stablecoins circulating among 343 million accounts. Important new partnerships include Chainlink oracles, Kraken’s tokenized stocks, and PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin through LayerZero technology.

What this means: TRON controls 61% of the global USDT stablecoin market, making it a major player in digital payments. Collaborations with traditional finance companies show growing trust from established institutions. However, competition from platforms like Solana and XRP ETFs could pose challenges in the near future. (BSC News)

Conclusion

TRON is moving beyond just being a platform for trading cryptocurrencies. Its ecosystem is growing with enterprise-level tools, affordable cross-chain swaps, and strong stablecoin adoption. With over $76 billion in USDT and 345 million users, TRON is positioned to evolve from a payments leader into a multi-chain DeFi hub, though it will need to carefully navigate regulatory challenges ahead.

What is expected in the development of TRX?

TRON is moving forward with some exciting developments planned for 2025:

1. AI-NFT Integration – Combining artificial intelligence with NFTs to create digital assets that can change and adapt over time.
2. Mainnet v4.8.0 Upgrade – Improving compatibility with Ethereum and making the network more efficient.
3. Decentralized AI Models – Using TRON’s network to train AI models in a more open and affordable way.

Deep Dive

1. AI-NFT Integration (2025)

Overview: TRON announced its #AINFT Roadmap in October 2025, which focuses on blending AI technology with NFTs in four stages. The final phase will use TRON’s distributed computing power to run decentralized AI models. This approach aims to lower costs and make AI development more accessible. Imagine NFTs that can evolve based on how users interact with them or changes in the market.

What this means: This is good news for TRON (TRX) because AI-powered NFTs could attract more developers and users interested in smart, programmable digital assets, potentially increasing activity on the network. However, there are challenges, such as the complexity of building these systems and competition from big centralized AI companies.

2. Mainnet v4.8.0 Upgrade (2025)

Overview: In June 2025, TRON’s community discussed an upgrade to the mainnet (Binance News). This upgrade aims to improve how the network verifies transactions and to support Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade (EIP-4844). These changes would make it easier for TRON to work with Ethereum and speed up transactions.

What this means: This upgrade is somewhat positive because better Ethereum compatibility could attract developers who want to build apps that work across multiple blockchains. But delays in voting or technical issues could slow down how quickly these improvements are adopted.

3. Decentralized AI Models (2025)

Overview: The last phase of the #AINFT Roadmap plans to train large AI models on TRON’s network. This could reduce costs by 30-50% compared to traditional, centralized AI services. The goal is to make AI infrastructure decentralized and available to everyone.

What this means: This is promising for the long term, as decentralized AI could make TRON a leader in open-source machine learning. Short-term challenges include making sure the network can handle the heavy computing needs and that the AI models work reliably.

Conclusion

TRON’s roadmap combines important technical upgrades with bold AI projects, aiming to expand its use beyond just payments and decentralized finance (DeFi). While AI-powered NFTs and decentralized AI models offer exciting growth opportunities, there are risks related to execution and how the market views new, speculative technologies.

How will TRON’s AI initiatives stack up against established players like OpenAI or other decentralized projects?

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What updates are there in the TRX code base?

TRON’s latest updates focus on making the network faster, more secure, and easier to use across different platforms.

1. TronLink v4.6.0 (November 12, 2025) – Improved wallet security and better support for multiple web browsers.
2. Mainnet v4.8.0 Proposal (June 20, 2025) – Added compatibility with Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade and improved network consensus.
3. LayerEdge Integration (November 5, 2025) – Added a new security layer by linking TRON’s blockchain data to Bitcoin using advanced verification technology.

Deep Dive

1. TronLink Wallet Upgrade (November 12, 2025)

What happened: The TronLink wallet extension for Chrome and Edge browsers was updated to version 4.6.0. This update strengthens security by enforcing stricter website protections (HTTPS), verifying app publishers, and warning users against downloading from unofficial sources. Users are encouraged to update only through official app stores to avoid scams.
Why it matters: This update makes TRON wallets safer, which builds trust for users trading or managing assets on the network. Safer wallets mean more confidence in decentralized finance (DeFi) and on-chain activities. (Source)

2. Mainnet v4.8.0 Proposal (June 20, 2025)

What happened: TRON proposed an upgrade to its main network to include Ethereum’s Cancun improvements (known as EIP-4844). This upgrade aims to lower costs for transactions that happen across different blockchains and improve how the network confirms transactions. It introduces a feature called Proto-Danksharding, which helps make Layer 2 transactions cheaper, and tightens rules for validating blocks. The network’s key validators, called Super Representatives, voted on this upgrade by June 23, 2025.
Why it matters: This upgrade helps TRON work better with Ethereum, one of the biggest blockchain platforms, improving interoperability. However, it requires technical updates from network operators, which could cause short-term challenges. Overall, this is a neutral development that sets the stage for future growth. (Source)

3. LayerEdge Integration (November 5, 2025)

What happened: TRON partnered with LayerEdge to add a new security feature that links TRON’s blockchain data to Bitcoin’s blockchain using zero-knowledge rollups (zk-rollups). This means TRON’s transaction proofs are recorded on Bitcoin’s blockchain, which is known for its strong security. The system, called edgenOS, creates proofs of TRON’s blocks and commits them to Bitcoin without changing how TRON’s network reaches consensus.
Why it matters: This integration adds an extra layer of security and transparency, making it easier for institutions to audit TRON’s blockchain. It strengthens decentralization and appeals to users who need compliance-ready infrastructure. (Source)

Conclusion

TRON’s recent updates focus on making the network more scalable by aligning with Ethereum, more secure by linking to Bitcoin, and more user-friendly with wallet improvements. These changes support TRON’s goal to become a global platform for stablecoins and cross-chain applications. The key question remains: how will TRON manage increasing technical complexity while keeping transaction fees low for everyday users?