What could affect the price of ADA?

Cardano’s price is currently caught between positive developments in its technology and cautious market sentiment.

1. $71M Community Upgrades – Funding aimed at improving speed and compatibility could encourage more users and developers (positive sign).
2. ETF Approval Decision – The SEC will decide on Grayscale’s ADA ETF by October 26, 2025, which could significantly impact the market.
3. Price Testing Key Level – ADA is challenging resistance at $0.97; whether it breaks above or falls below this point will likely determine its next price direction.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Upgrades & Governance (Positive Outlook)

What’s happening:
On August 4, 2025, Cardano’s community approved spending $71 million from its treasury to improve the network. These upgrades include Hydra, a technology designed to speed up transactions, and Ouroboros Leios, which improves how the network reaches agreement on transactions. The goal is to make Cardano faster, cheaper to use, and able to work smoothly with other blockchains.

Why it matters:
If these upgrades work well, they could attract more developers and big investors, increasing demand for ADA. Similar upgrades in other networks, like Ethereum’s EIP-1559, have led to price increases when adoption grows.

2. ETF Regulatory Catalyst (Uncertain Impact)

What’s happening:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide by October 26, 2025, whether to approve Grayscale’s spot ADA ETF (an investment fund that tracks ADA’s price). Current market predictions give it about a 75% chance of approval, similar to past Bitcoin ETF decisions.

Why it matters:
If approved, this ETF could open the door for more institutional investors, potentially driving ADA’s price up—Bitcoin saw a 160% increase after its ETF approval in 2024. But if the SEC rejects it, the price could drop sharply, similar to what happened with Solana (SOL) in 2023 after ETF delays.

3. Technical Sentiment & Whale Activity (Mixed Signals)

What’s happening:
ADA is facing strong resistance at $0.97, a key technical level. Recently, large holders (“whales”) sold 30 million ADA, but 71% of ADA supply is still staked (locked up for long-term holding), showing confidence in the network.

Why it matters:
If ADA breaks above $0.97, it could push toward $1.18, a recent high. If it fails, the price might drop to around $0.83. Whale selling can cause price swings, but the high staking rate limits how much ADA is available to sell, which helps stabilize the price.

Conclusion

Cardano’s price depends on successfully rolling out upgrades, gaining regulatory approval, and maintaining positive market momentum. While the fundamentals look promising, ADA still faces skepticism about how quickly it can grow. The upcoming ETF decision in October will be a key test of Cardano’s status as a leading blockchain or highlight ongoing regulatory challenges.

What are people saying about ADA?

The Cardano community is feeling a mix of excitement and caution right now. Here’s what’s happening:

1. A chart pattern suggests a possible breakout above $1.00
2. Big investors are divided between buying more and taking profits
3. A new privacy-focused sidechain is attracting attention from big companies

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: Symmetrical Triangle at $0.91–$0.97 Mixed

"ADA is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern after its July rally. If it breaks above $0.97, it could reach $1.03; if it falls below $0.91, it might drop to $0.88."
– @johnmorganFL (189K followers · 2.1M impressions · August 19, 2025, 12:12 PM UTC)
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What this means: Traders are waiting for a clear move. This pattern will likely determine Cardano’s price direction for the rest of the quarter.

2. @Cardanians_io: Whale Activity Divides Sentiment Bullish

"Large holders with 100 million to 1 billion ADA are buying during sell-offs, while medium-sized holders are selling some of their ADA. The number of active addresses on the network has increased by 30%."
– @Cardanians_io (327K followers · 4.8M impressions · August 6, 2025, 1:04 PM UTC)
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What this means: Big investors are showing confidence by accumulating ADA, which is a positive sign. However, smaller traders remain cautious because of price swings.

3. @MidnightNtwrk: Privacy-First Sidechain Gains Traction Bullish

"Midnight’s privacy technology, using zero-knowledge proofs, has attracted over 100 enterprise partners. Claims for the Glacier airdrop jumped 72% after integration with Ledger wallets."
– @MidnightNtwrk (88K followers · 1.4M impressions · September 8, 2025, 6:39 AM UTC)
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What this means: Growing interest from institutions in privacy features could increase Cardano’s usefulness. However, it’s still unclear when this will lead to widespread adoption.

Conclusion

The overall outlook for Cardano is mixed. There’s potential for a price breakout, supported by strong buying from large investors and promising new technology. But challenges like failed ETF approvals and competition from other blockchains like Solana and Ethereum are slowing momentum. Keep an eye on the $0.97 resistance level—breaking above it could confirm a bullish trend, while failing to do so might mean more sideways trading. For more details, watch how the SEC handles Grayscale’s ADA ETF proposal and follow progress on Hydra, Cardano’s scaling solution.

What is the latest news about ADA?

Cardano faces mixed signals: some experts predict a price drop, while new product launches and upgrades show real progress.

1. Cardano Card Launch (September 9, 2025) – A virtual and physical crypto card with Apple and Google Pay support is planned for late 2025.
2. Warning of an 80% Price Drop (September 12, 2025) – Analysts warn ADA’s price could fall sharply due to competition and slow adoption despite technical improvements.
3. Audit Confirms Redemption Process is Secure (September 8, 2025) – An independent review clears Cardano’s token redemption system, now expanded to support hardware wallets.

Deep Dive

1. Cardano Card Launch (September 9, 2025)

Overview:
Cardano is introducing a payment card, both virtual and physical, expected in the last quarter of 2025. This card will allow users to spend ADA, Bitcoin (BTC), and stablecoins directly through Apple Pay and Google Pay. It combines everyday spending with benefits like staking rewards and access to decentralized finance (DeFi) services.

What this means:
This product aims to connect the world of blockchain (Web3) with traditional finance, making ADA more useful for everyday purchases and potentially attracting more users. However, its success depends on how many stores accept the card and how well it meets regulatory rules. (Cardanians_io)

2. Warning of an 80% Price Drop (September 12, 2025)

Overview:
Some analysts predict ADA’s price could fall to $0.15 by 2030, which would be an 80% drop from current levels. They point to slow growth in users, strong competition from other blockchains like Solana and Ethereum, and less developer activity despite upgrades like Hydra. ADA’s price has already dropped 72% from its 2021 high.

What this means:
Even though Cardano continues to develop (with over 1,400 projects on its platform), many investors remain cautious. Some are shifting their attention to newer Layer-2 tokens, such as Layer Brett, which recently had a $3.5 million presale. (MEXC News)

3. Audit Confirms Redemption Process is Secure (September 8, 2025)

Overview:
An independent audit found no issues with Cardano’s voucher redemption system, increasing transparency and trust. Additionally, Midnight’s Glacier Drop now supports claiming $NIGHT tokens through popular hardware wallets like Ledger and Trezor, making it easier and safer for users.

What this means:
This improved transparency and hardware wallet support could make Cardano more attractive to institutional investors. However, the overall impact depends on how widely Midnight’s tokens are adopted after the airdrop, which is happening soon (26 days left). (Cardanians_io)

Conclusion

Cardano is showing real progress with new products and security improvements, but faces skepticism from the market and strong competition. Whether these developments will boost ADA’s price or not remains to be seen. Keep an eye on the upcoming card launch and Midnight’s token activity in the coming months for signs of momentum.

What is expected in the development of ADA?

Cardano’s plan focuses on improving speed, governance, and real-world use.

1. Hydra Scaling Rollout (Q4 2025) – Complete a layer-2 solution that can handle over 1 million transactions per second.
2. Midnight Glacier Drop (November 2025) – Launch a privacy-focused token airdrop.
3. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q1 2026) – Speed up transaction confirmation without losing decentralization.
4. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025) – Use ADA for payments through Apple Pay and Google Pay.

Deep Dive

1. Hydra Scaling Rollout (Q4 2025)

Overview: Hydra is Cardano’s technology to increase transaction speed by processing many transactions off the main blockchain at once. Tests have shown it can handle over 1 million transactions per second (Input Output, June 2025).

What this means: This is good news for ADA holders because it solves a major issue with slow transaction speeds. If successful, it could attract fast-paced financial apps and games. The main risk is potential delays in launching this on the main network.

2. Midnight Glacier Drop (November 2025)

Overview: Midnight is a new sidechain focused on privacy. It will distribute $NIGHT tokens to ADA holders through an airdrop, which requires using hardware wallets like Ledger or Trezor (Cardanians_io, September 2025).

What this means: This could encourage more people to use Cardano, but including other blockchains like Solana and Bitcoin might reduce focus on Cardano itself.

3. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (Q1 2026)

Overview: This upgrade will speed up how quickly transactions are confirmed, reducing the time from about 20 seconds to 5 seconds, while keeping energy use low. Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, says this is necessary to compete with faster blockchains like Solana (Cardanians_io, September 2025).

What this means: If delivered on time, this will make Cardano more attractive to developers and large-scale validators.

4. Cardano Card Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview: Cardano will introduce a debit card that lets users spend ADA and other cryptocurrencies through Apple Pay and Google Pay, while still earning staking rewards. This project is supported by a $5 million community treasury proposal (Cardanians_io, September 2025).

What this means: This makes using ADA easier for everyday purchases. Its success depends on how many merchants accept it and the fees involved.

Conclusion

Cardano’s roadmap combines technical improvements (Hydra, Leios) with user-friendly products (Midnight, Cardano Card), all funded by a $71 million community treasury. While the goals are ambitious, milestone-based funding helps keep the projects on track.

Will these upgrades help ADA become one of the top 3 blockchains for developer activity in 2026?

What updates are there in the ADA code base?

Cardano is making important updates to improve how it scales, governs itself, and supports developers.

1. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (September 8, 2025) – A key update to speed up transaction processing.
2. $71 Million Funding for Core Protocol (August 4, 2025) – Community-approved budget to support major improvements like Hydra and modular nodes.
3. Feesaswap Protocol Launch (September 8, 2025) – Lets users pay transaction fees with tokens other than ADA.

Deep Dive

1. Ouroboros Leios Upgrade (September 8, 2025)

What it is: This upgrade aims to fix Cardano’s current limits on how many transactions it can handle at once by changing the way the network agrees on transactions.

Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, stressed the importance of this upgrade to keep Cardano competitive. Leios adds a “pre-consensus” step that checks transactions earlier, which should let the network process more transactions faster without losing its decentralized nature.

Why it matters: Faster transactions could attract more decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming projects to Cardano, which is good news for ADA holders. However, delays in rolling out this upgrade could slow down these benefits.
(Source)

2. $71 Million Funding for Core Protocol (August 4, 2025)

What it is: For the first time, Cardano’s community voted to allocate a large budget for key upgrades through decentralized governance.

The proposal passed with 74% support, unlocking funds for:

• Hydra: A layer-2 solution designed to enable tiny, fast transactions—up to 1 million per second.
• Project Acropolis: A new modular design for nodes to make it easier for developers to contribute.
• Mithril: A tool to help nodes sync faster, improving network efficiency.

Why it matters: This funding is a positive sign for ADA’s future, though the impact depends on meeting project milestones. Monthly updates from Input Output (Cardano’s main development company) will provide progress insights.
(Source)

3. Feesaswap Protocol Launch (September 8, 2025)

What it is: This new feature allows users to pay transaction fees using any native token on Cardano, such as USDA (Cardano’s stablecoin), instead of only ADA.

Created by MLabs, Feesaswap reduces the need to sell ADA for fees, easing pressure on ADA’s price and making it simpler for new users who don’t hold ADA to use the network.

Why it matters: This upgrade could help increase ADA adoption by lowering barriers for new users, while still keeping ADA important for staking and governance.
(Source)

Conclusion

Cardano is focusing on making its network faster, more community-driven, and easier to use. These upgrades—Leios and Hydra for scaling, $71 million in community funding for development, and Feesaswap for flexible fee payments—could help ADA grow in popularity. The real test will be how quickly these changes are implemented and how many developers start building with the new tools. It will be interesting to see how these improvements affect Cardano’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem compared to competitors like Solana.

Why did the price of ADA fall?

Cardano (ADA) dropped 3.57% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell just 0.36%. Here’s why:

1. Negative News – Pessimistic long-term price predictions and competitor stories dominated the headlines.
2. Technical Resistance – ADA hit a key price level at $0.937 and then pulled back as traders took profits.
3. Whale Selling – Large holders sold about 30 million ADA this week, adding pressure on the price.

Deep Dive

1. Negative Sentiment Grows (Bearish Impact)

A recent MEXC News article from September 12 warned that ADA’s price could drop by 80% by 2030, pointing to slower adoption compared to competitors like Solana. Although this is speculative, the story spread widely in crypto communities and coincided with ADA falling below $0.90.

What this means: Many retail investors react strongly to dramatic price forecasts, especially after ADA’s recent 7-day gain of nearly 8%. This likely triggered some traders to sell and lock in profits.

2. Price Hit Key Technical Level (Mixed Impact)

ADA tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.937 but closed below $0.89, losing momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped from overbought levels to 63.36, and the MACD indicator turned negative.

What this means: Traders saw this as a sign to take profits. ADA’s price volatility over the past 30 days (-3.99%) has been weaker compared to Bitcoin, suggesting less strength. The next important support level is $0.85 — if ADA falls below this, losses could deepen.

What to watch: Daily closes above the 7-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.884 would suggest buyers are stepping back in.

3. Large Holder Selling & Market Shift (Bearish Impact)

Data from CoinMarketCap community posts shows that “whales” (large ADA holders) sold about 30 million ADA in the past week. Meanwhile, other altcoins like Lyno AI and Tapzi are attracting investor attention, pulling money away from ADA.

What this means: Big holders often sell before retail investors react. ADA’s 24-hour turnover ratio is 4.27%, lower than Solana’s 8.9%, indicating less trading activity and liquidity to absorb selling pressure.

Conclusion

ADA’s recent price drop is due to a combination of technical factors, negative news, and investors shifting money to newer projects. While the 24-hour move fits normal crypto market swings, the $0.85 to $0.89 range will be key to watch for buyer support.

Key point: Cardano’s strong developer community (with over 1,400 projects) and the upcoming Ouroboros Leios upgrade could help turn sentiment positive. Keep an eye on GitHub activity and staking trends for early signs.