What could affect the price of SUI?

Sui’s price depends largely on how its ecosystem grows, the chances of ETF approval, and changes in token supply.

1. ETF Filings & Institutional Interest – Several SUI ETF proposals are being reviewed by the SEC, which could bring in more institutional investors.
2. Ecosystem Growth – Expansion in decentralized finance (DeFi) and Bitcoin finance (BTCfi) is increasing total value locked (TVL), but security concerns remain.
3. Token Unlocks – A large token release of $128 million on August 1, 2025, could cause short-term selling pressure, even though long-term holders are accumulating.

In-Depth Look

1. ETF Progress & Regulatory Review (Mixed Effects)

Overview:
The SEC is currently reviewing ETF proposals for SUI from companies like 21Shares and Canary Capital, with decisions expected by early 2026. Meanwhile, firms like Grayscale and Bitwise have already included SUI in their crypto index products. Additionally, Nasdaq-listed SUI Group holds $344 million worth of SUI tokens.

What this means:
If approved, SUI ETFs could attract significant investment similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs, increasing liquidity and credibility. However, delays or denials—like the SEC’s earlier hesitation with Aptos ETFs—could cause price swings. Historically, SUI’s price jumped 53% during ETF speculation phases (CoinMarketCap).

2. DeFi Expansion vs. Security Concerns (Positive and Negative)

Overview:
By July 2025, Sui’s total value locked (TVL) reached $2.2 billion, fueled by BTCfi protocols and stablecoin deposits totaling $1.1 billion. However, a $223 million exploit of the Cetus Protocol in May 2025 revealed vulnerabilities in smart contracts. Fortunately, 72% of the stolen funds were recovered thanks to validator intervention.

What this means:
Growth in TVL shows that Sui is gaining real use, but repeated security breaches could undermine confidence. After the exploit, SUI’s price stabilized within two days, showing resilience. Still, long-term success depends on stronger security measures and decentralized governance.

3. Token Unlocks & Large Holder Activity (Neutral to Negative)

Overview:
Monthly token unlocks, such as the 44 million SUI tokens ($128 million) scheduled for August 1, 2025, can increase selling pressure. However, large holders (“whales”) like SUI Group have been accumulating tokens, now holding 101.7 million SUI ($344 million) through discounted purchases.

What this means:
Token unlocks have historically led to 5-10% price drops (for example, an 8% dip in July 2025). But the accumulation by whales—who now control about 2.8% of circulating supply—may help soften these declines. For instance, after the June 2025 unlock, SUI’s price rebounded 65%.

Conclusion

SUI’s outlook over the next several months balances potential institutional interest from ETFs against token supply changes and ecosystem security challenges. While DeFi innovation and BTCfi adoption provide a solid foundation, the August token unlock and possible regulatory delays present short-term risks. Will whale buying offset retail selling after the unlock? Keep an eye on SEC decisions and TVL trends for clues on where SUI’s price might head.

What are people saying about SUI?

Sui’s price watchers are balancing hopes for a breakout with concerns about upcoming token unlocks. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Traders are watching for a breakout above $4.20 if the $3.60 support level holds.
2. A $77 million token unlock this week could increase selling pressure.
3. Long-term supporters are optimistic about $10 targets, fueled by speculation around ETFs.

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: $7 Price Target Buzz 🔥 Bullish

"SUI Price Prediction: Analyst Targets $7 Amid $1T Stablecoin Surge and Swiss Bank Backing"
– @johnmorganFL (283K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-08-09 12:39 UTC)
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What this means: This is positive news for SUI. The $7 price target is based on growing use of stablecoins (digital currencies pegged to real money) and potential interest from traditional banks, although no official partnerships have been announced yet.

2. @CryptoLifer33: Solana Upgrade Threat 🚨 Bearish

"Does SOL's new Alpenglow upgrade [...] make SUI irrelevant?"
– @CryptoLifer33 (18K followers · 89K impressions · 2025-09-17 16:25 UTC)
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What this means: This is a bearish signal for SUI. Solana, a competing blockchain, has upgraded to process transactions 100 times faster, which could draw developers and users away from Sui’s technology.

3. Community Post: $3.60 Support Battle ⚔️ Mixed

"SUI is testing $3.60 support – break below risks drop to $3.54"
– @AltcoinTrading (Post metrics: 64K views · 2025-08-18 18:30 UTC)
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What this means: The short-term outlook is uncertain. If SUI holds above $3.60, it could bounce back by about 5%. However, there is a significant sell wall (large number of sell orders) at $3.70, which could limit gains.

Conclusion

The outlook for SUI is mixed. Traders see potential for a price breakout but are cautious about the $77 million token unlock in August, which represents 2.1% of the circulating supply and could increase selling pressure. Watching how SUI performs around the $3.60 support level and keeping an eye on regulatory news about ETFs will be key. A clear move above or below these levels could set the tone for the rest of the quarter.

What is the latest news about SUI?

Sui is gaining momentum with new developments and growing interest from regulators and investors. Here are the key updates:

1. Stablecoin Launch (October 5, 2025) – Sui Group introduced two new stablecoins, suiUSDe (which earns yield) and USDi (which does not), to encourage more decentralized finance (DeFi) activity.
2. ETF Filings (October 3, 2025) – REX Shares and Osprey Funds applied to the SEC for 21 crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including one featuring SUI, showing rising institutional demand.
3. DeFi Partnership (October 4, 2025) – Sui teamed up with Ethena to launch suiUSDe, aiming to reduce supply by rewarding users who stake their tokens.

Deep Dive

1. Stablecoin Launch (October 5, 2025)

Overview:
Sui Group Holdings announced two new stablecoins native to the Sui blockchain: suiUSDe, which offers yield to holders, and USDi, which does not. These coins are designed to increase liquidity and expand DeFi applications on Sui’s Layer 1 blockchain. This comes after Sui’s total value locked (TVL) reached $2.2 billion and decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes hit new highs.

What this means:
This is a positive sign for SUI because stablecoins that generate yield could attract investors looking for steady returns in DeFi, especially since Sui is focusing on Bitcoin-related finance (BTCfi) and appealing to institutional investors. However, there is a risk if demand for these coins doesn’t keep up with supply.
(Source: crypto.news)

2. ETF Filings (October 3, 2025)

Overview:
REX Shares and Osprey Funds filed paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for 21 crypto ETFs, including one that would allow investors to earn staking rewards on SUI tokens. These ETFs plan to operate through subsidiaries in the Cayman Islands to avoid some U.S. regulatory challenges.

What this means:
This development is somewhat positive for SUI. Although ETF approval can take several months, the filings show growing interest from institutional investors. Still, competition from similar ETFs like Aptos and ongoing SEC scrutiny, especially during a government shutdown, create uncertainty.
(Source: TokenPost)

3. DeFi Partnership (October 4, 2025)

Overview:
Sui partnered with Ethena to launch suiUSDe, a synthetic dollar stablecoin backed by staked SUI and Ethereum (ETH) tokens. This partnership encourages users to hold their tokens longer by offering yield rewards. So far, $11 million worth of tokens have been moved off exchanges into staking.

What this means:
This is good news for SUI because locking up tokens through staking reduces the circulating supply, which can help support the price. However, the partnership depends on Ethena’s mechanisms to maintain stability, which could be risky if the prices of ETH or SUI become very volatile.
(Source: AMBCrypto)

Conclusion

Sui’s recent moves—launching innovative stablecoins, pursuing ETF listings, and forming DeFi partnerships—highlight its ambition to compete with major blockchains like Ethereum and Solana for institutional adoption. While technical upgrades like Mysticeti v2 improve scalability, challenges remain from regulatory delays and competitors like Aptos. The big question is whether Sui’s focus on Bitcoin-related finance and stablecoins can keep driving its impressive 24% price gain over the past 90 days.

What is expected in the development of SUI?

Sui’s roadmap focuses on improving its infrastructure, adding privacy features, and growing its ecosystem through late 2025 and beyond.

1. Native Bridge Launch (Late 2025) – A secure, trustless bridge connecting Ethereum and Sui for easy asset transfers.
2. SuiNS .move Service (Late 2025) – A user-friendly naming system to help find on-chain objects by readable names.
3. Mysticeti V2/FastPath (2025) – Faster transaction processing with near-instant finality and optimized validators.
4. Security Expansion Program (Ongoing) – A $10 million effort to fight scams and improve network safety.

Deep Dive

1. Native Bridge Launch (Late 2025)

Overview:
Sui plans to release a native, trustless bridge to Ethereum. This bridge will initially support fungible tokens (like cryptocurrencies) and later expand to cross-chain messaging. It’s designed using Sui’s security model to allow asset transfers without relying on third parties (Sui Forum).

What this means:
This is a positive step for connecting Sui with other blockchains and increasing liquidity. However, the delay from 2024 to late 2025 for mainnet testing adds some uncertainty about execution.

2. SuiNS .move Service (Late 2025)

Overview:
An upgrade to the Sui Name Service, called .move, will link easy-to-read names to blockchain object IDs. This makes it simpler for developers and users to interact with on-chain data. Wallets may also use this to verify the authenticity of software packages (Sui Forum).

What this means:
This improvement could make the user experience smoother. Its success depends on how many wallets and developers adopt the system.

3. Mysticeti V2/FastPath (2025)

Overview:
Following the 2024 Mysticeti V1 upgrade, Mysticeti V2 aims to speed up transaction finality to under a second and reduce the complexity for validators (the network’s transaction verifiers). With horizontal scaling through Remora, Sui could potentially handle over 100,000 transactions per second (Bitget).

What this means:
This is promising for attracting institutional users and products like ETFs, but it will need thorough testing under heavy network traffic.

4. Security Expansion Program (Ongoing)

Overview:
Sui has committed $10 million over several years to improve security. This includes tools to simulate transactions, monitor for exploits, and detect malicious decentralized apps (dApps). Recent hacks, like the $223 million Cetus exploit in May 2025, highlight the importance of this program (CryptoBriefing).

What this means:
Strengthening security is essential to rebuild trust after major hacks. However, actions like freezing assets centrally (as was done in the Cetus case) may conflict with the decentralized principles of blockchain.

Conclusion

Sui’s roadmap shows a clear focus on technical upgrades and ecosystem safety. While delays and some centralization concerns remain, the project’s total value locked (TVL) above $2 billion and upcoming institutional products like the 21Shares ETF suggest strong potential. The key question is whether Sui can turn its developer momentum into lasting adoption, especially against competitors like Solana.

What updates are there in the SUI code base?

Sui’s software is improving with updates to its test network and core system features.

1. Testnet Security & Features (July 5, 2025) – Added stronger encryption, new transaction types called "Party" objects, and faster tools for developers.
2. gRPC Beta Launch (July 24, 2025) – Switched to a faster API for real-time data, replacing the older JSON-RPC system.

In-Depth Look

1. Testnet Security & Features (July 5, 2025)

Summary: The latest Sui testnet version (v1.51.2) introduced important security upgrades and new capabilities for developers.

Key improvements include:

• TLS encryption now protects communication between validators, making the network safer from attacks.
• Party objects allow more complex transactions that require multiple approvals, useful for decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming applications. These are currently available only on the testnet.
• Developer tools have been optimized, speeding up project setup by 30–50% through better dependency management and smarter testing filters.

Why it matters: These updates strengthen Sui’s security and open doors for innovative apps. Faster developer tools can help grow the Sui ecosystem more quickly.
(Source)

2. gRPC Beta Launch (July 24, 2025)

Summary: Sui replaced its older data access method (JSON-RPC) with a new, faster system called gRPC.

Key features:

• HTTP/2 support allows multiple requests to happen simultaneously, reducing delays—important for apps like decentralized exchanges (DEXs) that need quick data.
• Protocol Buffers (Protobuf) shrink data size by about 40% compared to JSON, lowering network load.
• Multi-language SDKs (Rust, Go, TypeScript) make it easier for developers to build on Sui.

Why it matters: This upgrade improves how quickly and efficiently apps can interact with Sui. While it depends on developers adopting the new system, it could attract high-performance applications and increase network use.
(Source)

Conclusion

Sui is focusing on security, scalability, and making life easier for developers—key factors for staying competitive long-term. The new "Party" objects suggest exciting possibilities for DeFi and gaming, while the gRPC upgrade modernizes how data is accessed. It will be interesting to see how these features, once live on the main network, help Sui compete with platforms like Solana.

Why did the price of SUI fall?

Sui (SUI) dropped 2.06% in the last 24 hours, while the overall crypto market stayed mostly flat (+0.004%). This decline follows a strong 30-day rally (+4.96%) and a slowdown in trading activity involving derivatives (complex financial contracts based on SUI).

Main reasons:

1. Investors taking profits after recent gains and signs that SUI was overbought
2. Money moving to Aptos (APT) after news of a new ETF filing
3. Reduced activity in derivatives markets, with less open interest and lower funding rates

In-Depth Analysis

1. Profit-Taking After Recent Gains (Negative Pressure)

Summary:
SUI’s price increased nearly 5% over the past month and doubled over the year. Its 7-day RSI (a measure of buying strength) hit 59.43, which is neutral but suggests the price was getting stretched. As SUI approached resistance levels around $3.60 to $3.80, some traders sold to lock in profits.

What this means:
Short-term holders likely cashed out, helped by SUI’s high liquidity (ease of buying and selling), shown by its turnover ratio of 0.0856. The price found temporary support near $3.53, which is the 30-day moving average.

What to watch:
If SUI falls below $3.50 for a sustained period, it could lead to more selling, potentially pushing the price down to $3.30, a key support level based on Fibonacci analysis.

2. Attention Shifts to Aptos ETF News (Negative for SUI)

Summary:
On October 5, 2025, Bitwise filed for an ETF focused on Aptos (APT), causing APT’s price to jump 19%. This attracted investment away from SUI, which dropped 2.06%, as traders chased the momentum linked to the ETF news.

What this means:
Despite SUI’s own ETF applications (by REX and Osprey), the market’s focus shifted to APT, partly because Aptos has much higher developer activity (897% more than competitors). This drew speculative capital away from SUI.

What to watch:
Whether SUI can regain investor interest through upcoming developments, such as launching its own stablecoins (suiUSDe and USDi).

3. Derivatives Market Activity Slows (Mixed Effects)

Summary:
Open interest (the total value of outstanding derivative contracts) for SUI dropped 15% to $1.79 billion, and funding rates (fees paid between traders to keep positions open) fell 89% from their July highs. More long positions were liquidated ($6.1 million) compared to shorts ($2.9 million).

What this means:
Traders using leverage reduced their bullish bets after the recent rally, putting downward pressure on SUI’s price. However, this cooling lowers the risk of large, forced sell-offs that can cause sharp price drops.

What to watch:
Potential for price recovery if funding rates stabilize and buying interest returns to the spot market (actual buying and selling of SUI tokens).

Conclusion

SUI’s recent price drop is mainly due to normal profit-taking and investors shifting funds toward Aptos following ETF news, rather than any fundamental problems with SUI itself. Key support at $3.50 and ongoing institutional interest, including the 21Shares SUI ETF currently under SEC review, suggest this pullback could be a buying opportunity.

Key point to monitor: Can SUI maintain support at $3.50 amid Aptos’ ETF momentum and a large token unlock scheduled for November 1, 2025 (76 million tokens)?