Why did the price of SUI fall?

SUI dropped 0.79% over the past 24 hours to $1.80, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 0.39%. The main reasons for this decline are:

1. Upcoming token unlock – 43.5 million SUI tokens worth $78 million will become available on February 1st
2. Technical resistance – The price hit a resistance level at $1.84 based on a common technical analysis tool called the Fibonacci retracement
3. Profit-taking – Investors are cashing in gains after a strong 38% rally in January

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Pressure (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
On February 1st, 43.5 million SUI tokens (about 1.15% of all tokens currently circulating) will be unlocked. This is the first of several monthly token releases planned for 2026. A similar unlock event on January 1st, worth $65 million, did not cause the price to drop.

What this means:

• Historically, SUI’s price tends to fluctuate 4-7% around these unlock dates
• The current daily trading volume of $487 million is higher than the unlock value, indicating the market can likely handle the new tokens without major disruption
• However, some investors may sell their tokens before the unlock date, driven by market sentiment

What to watch:
Keep an eye on SUI’s wallet activity after February 1st. If there are consistent outflows, it could signal concerns about token dilution.

2. Technical Correction (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
SUI’s price faced resistance at $1.84, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level based on its recent price range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of how overbought or oversold an asset is, stands at 69.45 over the past week, indicating the token may be overbought after a 9.1% weekly gain.

What this means:

• Traders often sell to take profits near key Fibonacci levels
• The MACD indicator, which shows momentum, suggests bullish momentum is weakening
• Support levels to watch are the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.77 and the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.62

3. Macro Profit-Taking (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
SUI’s impressive 38% price increase in January (compared to Bitcoin’s 1% gain) made it a target for portfolio rebalancing, especially as the Altcoin Season Index dropped 19% yesterday, signaling a shift away from altcoins.

What this means:

• Investors moved funds into other assets like XRP and AVAX that had lagged behind
• A 91% spike in SUI’s trading volume on January 10 suggested speculative trading was high
• Open interest in SUI derivatives has decreased by 15% since January 9, indicating reduced speculative bets

Conclusion

SUI’s recent price dip is a normal part of profit-taking after strong gains, combined with concerns about upcoming token unlocks and technical resistance levels. The network’s solid fundamentals—such as a total value locked (TVL) over $1 billion and institutional interest through ETF filings—suggest this pullback is temporary rather than a sign of a long-term downtrend.

Key point to watch: Can SUI maintain support around $1.75 after the token unlock? Successfully absorbing the new tokens without a price drop would show strong underlying demand.

What could affect the price of SUI?

Sui’s price outlook is mixed, with positive factors like platform upgrades and potential ETF approvals balancing against challenges such as token unlocks and market ups and downs.

1. Token Unlocks: On February 1, 2026, 43.5 million SUI tokens (about 1.15% of the total supply) will become available, which could lower the price if demand doesn’t keep up.
2. Sui Stack Upgrade: A major update planned for 2026 aims to make transfers free of gas fees and add privacy features, which could encourage more people to use Sui.
3. ETF Prospects: The SEC is reviewing applications for SUI ETFs, and approval could bring more institutional investors by late 2026.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks (Potential Downside)

What’s happening: On February 1, 2026, 43.53 million SUI tokens will be unlocked, representing about 1.15% of the circulating supply. While a similar unlock in January saw prices rise by 14% thanks to strong demand, repeated unlocks could put downward pressure on prices if interest fades or trading slows. Historically, the market has handled unlocks well, but current economic uncertainties increase the risk.
Why it matters: When more tokens enter the market without enough buyers, the value of each token can drop. If selling increases during times of low trading activity, the price could test support levels around $1.67 (a key technical point).

2. Sui Stack Upgrade (Potential Upside)

What’s happening: The 2026 Sui Stack (S2) upgrade plans to improve developer tools, allow gas-free transfers of stablecoins, and add privacy through confidential transactions built into the protocol. This builds on research by Mysten Labs into advanced cryptography techniques like zero-knowledge proofs and homomorphic encryption, aiming to make Sui more user-friendly and secure.
Why it matters: These improvements could attract more developers and users, increasing the demand for SUI tokens used for transaction fees and staking. Previous upgrades, like Mysticeti v2, boosted total value locked (TVL) by 26%, suggesting the price could break above resistance near $1.84 if adoption picks up.

3. ETF Filings & Regulations (Uncertain Impact)

What’s happening: Bitwise and Canary Capital have filed for SUI ETFs, which the SEC is reviewing with a decision expected by late 2026. Approval could bring significant institutional investment similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, Sui’s inclusion in Bitwise’s multi-asset ETF shows growing institutional interest.
Why it matters: If ETFs are approved, institutional money could push SUI’s price toward $2.42 (a key technical target). However, delays or rejections from the SEC could cause price swings, especially if the broader market is also experiencing volatility.

Conclusion

SUI’s price in the near future depends on whether demand can absorb the new tokens entering the market. The 2026 platform upgrades and ETF decisions could spark significant price gains. Holders should watch how the February unlock is handled and keep an eye on ETF developments.
Will Sui’s new privacy features help it overcome regulatory challenges and reach $2.50? Only time will tell.

What are people saying about SUI?

The Sui community is divided between optimistic technical signals and concerns about broader market challenges. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Price forecasts – Some analysts expect SUI to bounce back to $1.70–$2.10 based on technical indicators like MACD divergence.
2. ETF excitement – A recent filing by 21Shares is raising hopes for more institutional interest in SUI.
3. Caution signs – Resistance around $1.90 and upcoming token unlocks could slow down momentum.

In-Depth Look

1. @bpaynews: Positive MACD signals point to $2.10 target

"SUI price prediction shows bullish divergence targeting $1.70–$2.10 recovery by January 2026"
– @bpaynews (2K followers · 754K+ impressions · 2026-01-05 17:39 UTC)
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What this means: Traders who use technical analysis see signs that SUI is oversold and expect a 15–25% price increase if it stays above $1.25 support.

2. @NiklasTheisen: Bearish trend continues according to EMA

"EMA200 🔴 Bearish | RSI 🔴 Bearish | CMF 🔴 Bearish"
– @NiklasTheisen (1.5K followers · 4.2K impressions · 2025-12-27 15:20 UTC)
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What this means: Longer-term indicators suggest the price is still in a downtrend, trading below key moving averages with weakening buying pressure.

3. @Finora_EN: Critical support level at $1.45

"Price holds cautiously bullish above $1.4577 but risks drop to $1.3268 on breakdown"
– @Finora_EN (6.2K followers · 3.6M+ impressions · 2025-12-20 12:24 UTC)
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What this means: Short-term traders are closely watching the $1.45–$1.50 range. Holding this level could signal a rebound, while falling below it might lead to further declines.

Summary

Opinions on Sui’s outlook are mixed. While some technical signs point to a potential recovery, broader market factors like a $43.5 million token unlock scheduled for February 1 could create selling pressure. Despite this, Sui’s strong network value—over $1 billion in total value locked (TVL)—and growing interest from institutional investors through ETF filings suggest the project has solid fundamentals. Keep an eye on the $1.45 to $1.70 price range this week to see if SUI will bounce back or face renewed downward pressure.

What is the latest news about SUI?

Sui is gaining strong momentum and attracting interest from big investors, even with upcoming token releases. Here’s the latest update:

1. SUI Outperforms Bitcoin and Ether (January 10, 2026) – SUI jumped 38% in January, driven by ETF filings and growth in its ecosystem.
2. New Privacy Research Released (January 10, 2026) – Mysten Labs shared plans for confidential transactions using advanced cryptography.
3. 1.15% Token Unlock Coming (February 1, 2026) – About 43.5 million SUI tokens ($78.8 million) will enter the market next month.

In-Depth Look

1. SUI Outperforms Bitcoin and Ether (January 10, 2026)

Summary:
In January 2026, SUI’s price rose 38%, far outpacing Bitcoin’s 1% and Ether’s 1.2% gains. It even spiked 14% in one day, reaching $1.90—the highest since November 2025. This strong performance happened despite a large token release of 43.69 million SUI (worth $65 million) on January 1, which didn’t hurt the price. Key reasons include:

• ETF filings by Bitwise and Canary Capital focused on SUI
• Record daily trading volume of $1.7 billion, up 91% from last year
• The Mysticeti v2 upgrade, keeping network speed high at 866 transactions per second

What this means:
This shows that SUI’s market is strong and can handle new tokens entering circulation while attracting big investors. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 72, indicating the coin might be overbought and could face resistance between $1.90 and $2.10. (CoinMarketCap)

2. New Privacy Research Released (January 10, 2026)

Summary:
Mysten Labs published a detailed report on adding privacy features to Sui’s account system. Using techniques like homomorphic encryption and zero-knowledge proofs (zk-proofs), the plan is to keep transaction details private while still confirming them quickly—aiming for a mainnet launch in 2026.

What this means:
This development is cautiously positive for SUI. Enhanced privacy could attract more institutional users, especially in decentralized finance (DeFi). However, there are challenges like increased computing needs and possible regulatory concerns. Privacy-focused coins such as ZEC and Monero saw big gains (over 120%) in late 2025, showing strong market interest.

3. 1.15% Token Unlock Coming (February 1, 2026)

Summary:
On February 1, 43.53 million SUI tokens (worth $78.8 million at $1.81 each) will be unlocked. These tokens come from early contributors and community reserves, representing 1.15% of the circulating supply.

What this means:
This could put short-term downward pressure on SUI’s price due to increased selling. Still, SUI has shown strong demand, gaining nearly 18% over the past 30 days. It’s important to watch how many tokens move to exchanges after the unlock and keep an eye on the $1.75 support level. (TradingView)

Conclusion

SUI is balancing positive factors like ETF interest and privacy upgrades with risks such as token unlocks and signs of being overbought. The key question is whether strong developer activity (866 TPS network speed) and new institutional products can offset the effects of token dilution. Watch for a breakout above $1.90-$2.10 and monitor token flows after the February 1 unlock for clues on where SUI is headed.

What is expected in the development of SUI?

Sui is making important progress with these key goals planned for 2026:

1. Private Transactions – Introducing built-in confidential payments that keep transaction details hidden without users needing to set anything up.
2. Institutional Product Launches – Big financial firms like VanEck and Franklin Templeton are working on investment products based on Sui.
3. Remora Scaling & Real-World Apps – Improving network speed and capacity to support real-world uses like gaming, IoT, and cross-border payments.

Deep Dive

1. Private Transactions (2026)

Overview: In 2026, Sui plans to offer private transactions at the protocol level. This means only the sender and receiver can see the payment details, and users won’t have to enable any special settings. This approach helps protect against future threats like quantum computing and meets regulatory requirements, all while keeping the network fast. It builds on existing tools like zkLogin to make privacy easier for decentralized finance (DeFi) and payment applications (Sui Network).
What this means: This is good news for SUI because better privacy can attract regulated institutions and larger transactions, boosting the network’s usefulness. However, the technology is complex, and regulations could slow down the rollout.

2. Institutional Product Launches (2026)

Overview: After 21Shares launched a leveraged SUI ETF (TXXS), VanEck and Franklin Templeton are developing new Sui-based investment products. These include tokenized assets and custody services that take advantage of Sui’s compliance-friendly design (CoinMarketCap).
What this means: This is positive for SUI because institutional products can bring more investors and liquidity to the network. On the downside, market ups and downs or changes in regulations could reduce interest in these specialized products.

3. Remora Scaling & Real-World Apps (2026)

Overview: Remora, Sui’s scaling solution, demonstrated it can handle over 100,000 transactions per second in tests during 2025 and is now rolling out on the main network. This allows groups of validators to manage large workloads needed for enterprise applications. At the same time, partnerships like the one with Mastercard aim to expand Sui’s use in areas such as Internet of Things (IoT) devices and international payments (@SuiNetwork).
What this means: This is a strong positive for SUI because faster processing supports widespread adoption in gaming, DeFi, and other sectors. However, competition from other fast blockchains like Solana could slow Sui’s growth.

Conclusion

Sui’s 2026 roadmap focuses on improving privacy, attracting institutional investors, and scaling the network to support real-world applications. Keep an eye on how well private transactions and institutional products develop. These upgrades could help Sui compete with Ethereum’s upcoming Verge phase and strengthen its position in the blockchain space.

What updates are there in the SUI code base?

Sui’s development is moving forward with important security improvements, new features on its test network, and better tools for developers.

1. Mysticeti v2 Consensus Upgrade (Nov 2025) – Combines transaction validation and consensus to speed up transaction finalization.
2. Testnet v1.51.2 (June 2025) – Adds encrypted communication between validators and introduces experimental "Party" objects.
3. Mainnet v1.49.2 (June 2025) – Improves network traffic management and adds a way to recover stolen funds.
4. Move Autoformatter (May 2024) – A tool that automatically formats Move programming language code for easier development.

Deep Dive

1. Mysticeti v2 Consensus Upgrade (Nov 2025)

What happened: This upgrade merges the steps of validating transactions and reaching consensus into one process. This change cuts transaction finalization time by about 35% in regions like Asia and Europe. Validators now group transaction signatures together, which reduces the load on their computers and network.

Why it matters: Faster transaction finalization means users of decentralized finance (DeFi) apps and blockchain games will have a smoother experience. Also, because validators need less powerful hardware, more people might join, making the network more decentralized and secure. (Source)

2. Testnet v1.51.2 (June 2025)

What happened: This update requires validators to use encrypted communication channels (TLS) to prevent hacking attempts. It also introduces "Party" objects, which allow multiple users to sign transactions together on the test network.

Why it matters: The added encryption improves network security, which is always good. The "Party" objects are still being tested but could lead to new ways for users to manage shared assets in DeFi and gaming once fully developed. (Source)

3. Mainnet v1.49.2 (June 2025)

What happened: The network now automatically adjusts transaction fees during busy times to reduce delays. Additionally, a community-approved change lets the network freeze and recover $162 million stolen in a recent exploit.

Why it matters: Dynamic fee adjustment helps keep the network running smoothly during traffic spikes, improving reliability. The ability to recover stolen funds builds trust, especially among larger investors and institutions. (Source)

4. Move Autoformatter (May 2024)

What happened: A new tool was released that automatically formats Move programming language code, making it cleaner and easier to read. It works with popular coding software through plugins.

Why it matters: This tool helps developers write better code with fewer errors, improving the overall development process. While it doesn’t directly affect the network’s performance, it supports a healthier developer community.

Conclusion

Sui is focusing on making its network faster, more secure, and better prepared for unexpected problems. The new "Party" objects suggest exciting possibilities for future DeFi and gaming features. As more institutions start using Sui, the big question is whether its infrastructure can handle high demand while maintaining its current speed of 866 transactions per second.