What could affect the price of SUI?

SUI’s price outlook balances promising technology upgrades with potential market challenges.

1. Sui Stack Upgrade (Positive) – New developer tools and gas-free payments could boost adoption.
2. ETF Approval Uncertainty (Mixed) – The SEC’s decision on 21Shares’ SUI ETF by January 2026 brings regulatory risks and opportunities.
3. Layer-1 Competition (Negative) – Despite strong developer activity, SUI trails leaders like Solana and Aptos.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Sui Stack Upgrade Coming in 2026 (Positive Impact)

Overview:
The upcoming “Sui Stack” (S2) upgrade, expected in the second quarter of 2026, will introduce unified developer tools, built-in privacy features, and gasless stablecoin transactions. This follows Mysten Labs’ 2025 improvements, including decentralized storage (Walrus) and consensus upgrades (Mysticeti).

What this means:
By making it easier for developers to build apps, SUI could see faster growth in decentralized applications (dApps). Currently, SUI’s total value locked (TVL) is $1.03 billion (as of January 2026), which is behind Solana’s $4.2 billion. Gasless payments could encourage more small transactions, but this depends on how widely stablecoins are adopted on the network (Sui Blog).

2. ETF Regulatory Review (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The SEC is reviewing 21Shares’ application for a SUI exchange-traded fund (ETF), with a decision expected by January 18, 2026. If approved, this could increase liquidity similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. However, the SEC has often rejected ETFs for altcoins. Grayscale’s similar filing adds some institutional credibility (CoinMarketCap News).

What this means:
Approval could cause short-term price swings, with analysts estimating targets between $2.29 and $3.50. A rejection might reinforce SUI’s reputation as a high-risk altcoin. Current odds of approval are about 35%, according to Polymarket.

3. Competition Among Layer-1 Blockchains (Negative Impact)

Overview:
SUI ranks 10th among layer-1 blockchains with a market cap of $6.7 billion, behind Solana ($78 billion) and Aptos ($3.8 billion). While SUI processes an impressive 65 million daily transactions (January 2026), it has fewer active developers—2,890 monthly compared to Solana’s 6,420 (Electric Capital).

What this means:
With 75% of SUI’s TVL in decentralized finance (DeFi), the ecosystem lacks diversity, which could limit growth. Additionally, a 23% increase in circulating supply throughout 2026 might add selling pressure unless new use cases like gaming or AI emerge.

Conclusion

SUI’s success in 2026 depends on delivering its planned usability improvements while managing ETF-related uncertainties and stiff competition in the layer-1 space. The current price support at $1.76 aligns with its 30-day moving average; if it falls below this, the next support level could be $1.40. Will SUI’s “institutional-grade” positioning help it compete against Bitcoin’s 59% market share? Keep an eye on the SEC’s ETF decision and adoption of the Sui Stack upgrade in Q2 2026.

What are people saying about SUI?

Sui’s social buzz shows a mix of short-term concerns and long-term optimism. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Positive ecosystem growth with rising total value locked (TVL) and institutional interest through ETF filings
2. Technical warnings suggest a possible 6% price drop if the $1.87 support level breaks
3. Privacy upgrades could change how SUI is valued in the market

Deep Dive

1. @SkyAlphaOnSui: Ecosystem Growth Looks Promising

"More eyes on $SUI! NAVI’s wallet-free DeFi, Berlin IoT launch, and cross-chain NFTs demonstrate real-world utility."
– @SkyAlphaOnSui (4K followers · 128K impressions · 2026-01-14 19:03 UTC)
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What this means: This is good news for SUI. Growing use cases in decentralized finance (DeFi), Internet of Things (IoT), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) show the network is expanding beyond just speculation. This could lead to more network activity and higher demand for the token.

2. @Inam_Az1: Technical Signals Point to Possible Downside

"Bias: Bearish. Invalidation above $1.873. Targets: 2–6% downside. Weak structure on 4H chart."
– @Inam_Az1 (808 followers · 16K impressions · 2026-01-15 11:59 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign for SUI in the short term. The technical charts suggest traders expect the price to fall by 2–6% if the $1.87 support level doesn’t hold. If the price drops below $1.77, it could trigger more selling.

3. @Finora_EN: Privacy Features Could Attract Investors, But Trust Needs Time

"SUI’s protocol-level private transactions using zk-proofs could attract institutions, but post-outage trust needs rebuilding"
– @Finora_EN (6.6K followers · 71K impressions · 2026-01-17 16:24 UTC)
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What this means: This is a mixed signal. Privacy upgrades using zero-knowledge proofs (zk-proofs) could make SUI more appealing to big investors. However, a recent network outage on January 15 raised concerns about reliability, which might slow down institutional interest until the network proves stable.

Conclusion

Overall, opinions on SUI are mixed. Positive ecosystem growth is balanced by technical risks and operational challenges. Traders are watching the $1.73–$1.75 support zone closely — if it holds, it could signal a buying opportunity for a recovery in the first quarter. But if it breaks, it might lead to more selling. Also, keep an eye on the $1.87 resistance level this week — a strong close above it could invalidate bearish signals and trigger short sellers to cover their positions.

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What is the latest news about SUI?

Sui shows strong recovery after technical issues, with experts watching for possible price gains and ongoing growth in its ecosystem.

1. Network Outage Had Little Effect (Jan 18, 2026) – Sui bounced back from a 6-hour shutdown without a major price drop, indicating investor trust.
2. Short-Term Price Goal: $2.30 (Jan 18, 2026) – Analyst Ali Martinez spots a bullish pattern that could push SUI up to $2.29.
3. Genius Terminal Hits Volume Record (Jan 17, 2026) – The CZ-backed platform reached $650 million in daily trading volume, helping Sui’s integration with other blockchains and improving liquidity.

In-Depth Look

1. Network Outage Had Little Effect (Jan 18, 2026)

What happened: On January 14, the Sui Network faced a nearly six-hour outage that stopped transactions and temporarily locked over $1 billion in assets. Validators fixed the problem by 8:44 PM UTC the same day, and no funds were lost. Despite this, SUI’s price stayed steady around $1.89 during the outage.
Why it matters: This shows that investors still have confidence in Sui’s ability to recover from technical problems. However, if outages happen often, it could hurt trust in the network’s reliability. (CoinMarketCap)

2. Short-Term Price Goal: $2.30 (Jan 18, 2026)

What happened: Analyst Ali Martinez noticed a “bull flag” pattern on SUI’s 4-hour price chart, with the price moving between $1.70 and $1.90. He says if SUI breaks above $1.84, it could climb about 30% to reach $2.29. This is based on similar patterns that have led to price increases in the past.
Why it matters: This is a cautiously positive sign. If the price breaks through resistance, it might attract short-term traders. But if it doesn’t, the price could stay flat or drop, especially since SUI has fallen 2.22% over the past week. (NewsBTC)

3. Genius Terminal Hits Volume Record (Jan 17, 2026)

What happened: Genius Terminal, a cross-chain trading platform supported by CZ (Binance’s CEO), recorded $650 million in trading volume in one day. It uses “Ghost Orders” technology to allow large trades across more than 10 blockchains, including Sui, without revealing details. This attracted 30,000 new wallets after launch.
Why it matters: This is good news for SUI because increased liquidity and privacy features can encourage bigger investors to use the network. However, if most trading volume comes from a few large players, smaller investors might not benefit as much. (CoinMarketCap)

Conclusion

Sui’s ability to handle technical setbacks, combined with positive price signals and growing cross-chain activity, points to cautious optimism. The key question is whether these developments will lead to steady growth and more developer involvement beyond just short-term trading interest.

What is expected in the development of SUI?

Sui’s 2026 roadmap centers on building strong infrastructure, enhancing privacy, and encouraging widespread use.

1. Sui StackStack Launch (2026) – A unified platform for developers combining storage, privacy, and computing
2. Protocol-Level Privacy (2026) – Automatic privacy for all transactions without needing user setup
3. USDsui Stablecoin & Gasless Transfers (2026) – A native stablecoin with no fees on transfers
4. DeepBook Margin Trading (2026) – Advanced trading features with referral rewards for institutions
5. DeFi Moonshot Plan (2026) – Funding innovative financial products to shake up traditional finance

Deep Dive

1. Sui StackStack Launch (2026)

What it is: Sui StackStack (S2) upgrades Sui from just a blockchain to a full development platform. It brings together decentralized storage (Walrus), access control (SEAL), and off-chain data indexing (Nautilus) into one system. This removes reliance on centralized services like AWS, letting developers build fully decentralized apps with privacy and scalability built in.
Why it matters: This is good news for SUI because it makes building on Sui easier and more attractive, which could lead to more apps and activity on the network. The challenge will be how smoothly developers can switch from current tools to this new platform.

2. Protocol-Level Privacy (2026)

What it is: All transactions on Sui will be private by default, meaning only the sender and receiver can see the details. This uses advanced cryptography called zero-knowledge proofs, based on research from Yale, and doesn’t require users to turn it on manually (Sui CPO Adeniyi Abiodun).
Why it matters: Privacy is a big deal for sensitive industries like healthcare and finance, so this feature could attract both businesses and everyday users. However, there’s a risk that regulators might scrutinize these privacy features if they clash with legal requirements.

3. USDsui Stablecoin & Gasless Transfers (2026)

What it is: USDsui is a stablecoin native to Sui that earns yield and is designed to support the Sui economy. It will also allow transfers without gas fees, making transactions smoother and cheaper.
Why it matters: This could make using Sui for payments and everyday transactions much easier, encouraging more people to use the network. The key will be keeping the stablecoin’s value steady and ensuring there’s enough liquidity.

4. DeepBook Margin Trading (2026)

What it is: DeepBook is Sui’s decentralized exchange (DEX) with an order book that will add margin trading and referral commissions. It’s aimed at attracting institutional traders by sharing income with them.
Why it matters: This could bring in professional traders and increase the total value locked (TVL) on Sui. On the downside, these complex features need careful auditing to avoid risks that could affect the whole system.

5. DeFi Moonshot Plan (2026)

What it is: This is a fund to support new decentralized finance (DeFi) projects that aim to disrupt traditional finance. It focuses on tools for lending, derivatives, and tokenized assets that can work together easily.
Why it matters: Funding innovative projects can drive growth and new use cases on Sui. However, there’s a risk if these projects don’t succeed or face regulatory challenges.

Conclusion

Sui’s 2026 plans focus on building a strong foundation for developers, making privacy standard, and enabling easy, fee-free finance. These moves position Sui to become more than just a speculative asset—it aims to offer real-world value. The big question is how quickly these upgrades will lead to more users and activity on the network.

What updates are there in the SUI code base?

Sui’s software recently got important updates that boost security and make it easier for developers to build on the network.

1. Critical Validator Bug Fix (January 15, 2026) – Fixed a network outage quickly and improved stability with new testing tools.
2. Mysticeti v2 Consensus Upgrade (November 8, 2025) – Combined steps to speed up transactions and reduce resource use.
3. gRPC Beta Launch (July 24, 2025) – Switched to a faster data access method, improving app performance.

Deep Dive

1. Critical Validator Bug Fix (January 15, 2026)

What happened: A bug in the validator software caused the network to stop producing new blocks, leading to downtime. The team fixed the issue within 6 hours, avoiding any loss of user funds. They also added new testing methods that randomly simulate failures and tools to monitor validators more closely.

Why it matters: This update makes Sui more reliable and reduces the chance of future outages. Users will face fewer interruptions, and developers can trust the network for important projects.
(Source)

2. Mysticeti v2 Consensus Upgrade (November 8, 2025)

What happened: The process that validates and confirms transactions was combined into one step. This change cut transaction delays by about 35% in Asia and 25% in Europe, while also lowering CPU and bandwidth use.

By integrating validation directly into the consensus process, transactions now finalize in under a second. A new system called the "Transaction Driver" sends each transaction to a single validator to reduce network congestion.

Why it matters: This upgrade means faster and cheaper transactions, which is great for decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming apps. Users get smoother experiences, and validators can work more efficiently.
(Source)

3. gRPC Beta Launch (July 24, 2025)

What happened: Sui replaced its old JSON-RPC API with gRPC, a faster and more efficient way to send data. This change allows data to stream up to four times faster and uses a compact format called Protocol Buffers.

This upgrade supports real-time data for apps like decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and games by using HTTP/2 multiplexing. Developers can now generate code automatically in popular languages like Rust, Go, or TypeScript, which reduces mistakes and speeds up development.

Why it matters: This makes it easier for developers to build responsive apps. Users benefit from smoother experiences, such as live trading or real-time game actions.
(Source)

Conclusion

Sui’s recent updates focus on making the network stronger, faster, and easier to develop on—from fixing urgent bugs to improving core technology. These improvements could help Sui grow faster in areas like DeFi and gaming, where speed and reliability are key.

Why did the price of SUI fall?

Sui (SUI) dropped 2.05% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 0.5%. Here’s why:

1. Network Outage Aftermath – Concerns remain after a 6-hour network halt on January 14 (Sui Foundation).
2. Technical Resistance – The price hit a key resistance level at $1.84 and was pushed back down.
3. Lower Trading Volume – Trading activity fell by 39%, showing weaker market interest.

1. Network Outage Aftermath (Negative Impact)

What happened: On January 14, the Sui Network experienced a 6-hour failure that stopped transactions and froze over $1 billion in assets (NullTX). Although the network recovered quickly, this was the second major outage since 2023, raising concerns about its reliability.

Why it matters: When a network goes down, users and investors lose confidence, which can lead to short-term selling as people rethink the risks. No funds were lost, but the fact that validators had to pause the network points to centralization issues, which might discourage new investments.

What to watch: The Sui Foundation is expected to release a detailed report this week explaining what went wrong and how they plan to fix it.

2. Technical Resistance (Negative Impact)

What happened: SUI’s price couldn’t rise above $1.84, a key technical barrier known as a Fibonacci retracement level (Ali Martinez). This caused more selling, confirmed by technical indicators showing downward momentum.

Why it matters: When prices fail to break important levels, it often triggers automatic selling by trading algorithms and investors, pushing prices lower. SUI’s price stayed below its 7-day average of $1.81, signaling a short-term downtrend.

What to watch: If SUI can close above $1.84 decisively, it could signal a shift to a positive trend, with a potential target of $2.29.

Conclusion

Sui’s recent price drop is due to technical resistance and shaken confidence from the network outage, made worse by low trading volume. Key question: Will the upcoming report and a price rebound above $1.84 help SUI regain momentum?

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