What could affect the price of ONDO?

Ondo’s price is currently caught between two forces: a large number of tokens becoming available soon and growing adoption of real-world assets on its platform.

1. Token Unlock Pressure – Nearly 2 billion ONDO tokens ($886 million worth) will unlock in January 2026, which could lead to oversupply.
2. Real-World Asset Growth – Tokenized stocks and U.S. Treasuries on Ondo have reached $8.86 billion, a 125% increase compared to last year.
3. Regulatory Developments – Approval in the European Union allows Ondo to reach over 500 million investors, though U.S. regulations remain strict.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Dynamics (Potential Downside)

Overview:
On January 18, 2026, 1.94 billion ONDO tokens—about 57% of the circulating supply—will become available. This includes 825 million tokens for protocol development and 792 million for ecosystem incentives. In 2025, similar token unlocks led to a 56% drop in price over three months.

What this means:
The sudden availability of such a large number of tokens could cause selling pressure that outweighs buying interest. To put it in perspective, $886 million worth of tokens will enter a market valued at $1.27 billion. However, Ondo’s structured vesting schedule (tokens released over 4 to 5 years for private sales) may help prevent a rush to sell all at once.

2. Real-World Asset Expansion (Potential Upside)

Overview:
Ondo leads the market in tokenized U.S. Treasuries, with $8.86 billion in total value locked (TVL). In January 2026, it also added 98 new stocks and ETFs. Partnerships with companies like Bitget, LBank, and BlackRock’s BUIDL fund support continuous institutional trading.

What this means:
Historically, every $1 billion inflow into tokenized assets on Ondo has been linked to an 18-25% increase in ONDO’s price. The 125% year-over-year growth in real-world assets signals strong, ongoing demand that could support price gains.

3. Regulatory Tailwinds (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Ondo received approval to offer tokenized stocks across 30 European countries, expanding its potential investor base to over 500 million people. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ended a two-year investigation in December 2025 without filing charges, confirming Ondo’s compliance. However, U.S. retail investors are still limited to qualified investors only.

What this means:
Clearer regulations reduce the risk of major legal issues, but U.S. restrictions limit the total available market. Ondo’s future success depends on whether it can replicate its European regulatory model in other regions like Asia.

Conclusion

The large token unlock in January 2026 could cause short-term price swings, but Ondo’s strong position in tokenized real-world assets and over $315 million in tokenized equities locked on its platform provide solid long-term support. Keep an eye on the ONDO/Ethereum TVL ratio—if it grows steadily above 15% month-over-month, it would indicate strong institutional confidence that could outweigh selling pressure. The key question: can Ondo’s regulated asset offerings help it navigate the broader challenges facing the crypto market?

What are people saying about ONDO?

The ONDO community is divided between hopeful optimism and cautious concern as important price levels and a large token release approach. Here’s the latest:

1. Optimists expect ONDO to rise above $1 after breaking out of a downward trend
2. Pessimists warn the price could fall below $0.36 if support fails
3. Unlock worries grow ahead of 1.94 billion tokens becoming available

In-Depth Look

1. Bullish breakout signals from @alphacryptosign

"ONDO has clearly broken out of its downward channel... it’s likely to continue rising if the $0.945 resistance level turns into support."
– @alphacryptosign (15.6K followers · 12K impressions · Jan 4, 2026)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for ONDO. Technical traders see a confirmed change in market direction, supported by the 12-hour chart holding a key retracement level at $0.402.

2. Bearish warning from @TXGTRADES

"ONDO tried to break through $0.445 resistance but was rejected. It might drop back to test support at $0.36 again."
– @TXGTRADES (1.48K followers · 3.2K impressions · Jan 10, 2026)
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What this means: This suggests weakness as ONDO struggles to stay above its 50-day moving average ($0.419). The momentum indicator (RSI at 44) also points to fading strength.

3. Concerns over token unlock from @CryptoJobs3

"1.94 billion tokens (61.4% of total supply) will unlock on January 18 – a drop of over 40% toward $0.20 seems possible without strong buying."
– @CryptoJobs3 (41.4K followers · 8.7K impressions · Dec 22, 2025)
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What this means: This is a cautious to negative outlook, as the market anticipates increased supply that could push prices down. However, some see this as a chance for the price to find a bottom.

Summary

Opinions on ONDO are mixed. Technical traders notice signs of accumulation, while others prepare for volatility due to the upcoming token unlock. The price has dropped nearly 68% over the past year, but the underlying real-world asset (RWA) fundamentals are improving. Keep an eye on the $0.36 to $0.42 price range as January 18 approaches. Will large buyers, who purchased 22 million tokens last week, be able to counterbalance the increased supply?

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What is the latest news about ONDO?

Ondo is expanding its tokenized stock offerings while facing a large upcoming token release that could impact its price. Here’s the latest update:

1. Tokenized Stocks Growth (Jan 9, 2026) – Ondo added 98 new tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, strengthening its position in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.
2. LBank Partnership Milestone (Jan 9, 2026) – LBank reached $6.3 billion in stock futures trading volume using Ondo’s tokenized assets.
3. Big Token Unlock Coming (Jan 18, 2026) – Nearly 2 billion ONDO tokens ($886 million worth) will enter circulation, which could lead to selling pressure.

In-Depth Look

1. Tokenized Stocks Growth (January 9, 2026)

What happened?
Ondo added 98 new tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs—including popular names like NVIDIA, Tesla, and gold ETFs—on Ethereum and BNB Chain through partnerships with Bitget and LBank. This brings their total tokenized equities to over 200, capturing more than half (51.6%) of the $801 million tokenized stock market (CoinMarketCap).

Why it matters
This expansion boosts ONDO’s usefulness, as more investors can trade tokenized stocks anytime, anywhere. However, these tokenized assets don’t yet generate direct fees for ONDO holders, so the immediate financial benefit to the token is limited.

2. LBank Partnership Milestone (January 9, 2026)

What happened?
LBank, a crypto exchange, reported $6.3 billion in U.S. stock futures trading volume powered by Ondo’s tokenized real-world assets. They offer 20x leverage and 24/7 trading, and plan to grow their tokenized asset offerings using Ondo’s platform (Decrypt).

Why it matters
This shows growing institutional interest in Ondo’s technology. However, ONDO’s token price hasn’t reflected this growth, dropping 56% over the past three months. This suggests a gap between how much the platform is used and how the token is valued.

3. Big Token Unlock Coming (January 18, 2026)

What happened?
On January 18, 2026, 1.94 billion ONDO tokens—about 57% of the circulating supply—will be unlocked. Of these, 825 million are for protocol development, 792 million for ecosystem growth, and 323 million were sold privately and could be sold on the market (Bitrue).

Why it matters
This large token release could put downward pressure on ONDO’s price in the short term. While past unlocks during strong markets saw price increases, the current market is more uncertain, with a 39% price drop over the last 60 days. Traders should watch for increased token sales on exchanges after the unlock.

Conclusion

Ondo is strengthening its lead in tokenized stocks and ETFs through new listings and exchange partnerships. However, the upcoming large token unlock on January 18 could challenge the token’s price stability. It remains to be seen whether tokens allocated for development and ecosystem growth will balance out selling pressure from early investors, or if increased supply will weigh on the market.

What is expected in the development of ONDO?

Ondo’s 2026 plan centers on governance, tokenization, and growing its ecosystem.

1. Major Token Unlock (January 18, 2026) – $840 million worth of ONDO tokens will be released, changing the supply landscape.
2. Ondo Summit (February 3, 2026) – A key event focused on institutional adoption and regulatory discussions.
3. Ondo Chain Expansion (2026) – Scaling up infrastructure for tokenizing real-world assets (RWA) with institutional-grade security.

In-Depth Look

1. Major Token Unlock (January 18, 2026)

What’s happening:
Ondo will unlock 1.9 billion ONDO tokens, which is about 57% of the currently unlocked supply. These tokens are allocated to team members, early investors, and ecosystem funds. This unlock comes after a 12-month lock-up period following the public launch. Past unlocks have caused price swings, but since 40% of these tokens are reserved for ecosystem growth, selling pressure might be limited.

What this means for you:

• Short-term risk: The sudden increase in available tokens could push prices below $0.40 as traders react.
• Long-term opportunity: Tokens kept for ecosystem development could support partnerships and adoption of real-world assets, helping Ondo grow with institutional investors.

2. Ondo Summit (February 3, 2026)

What’s happening:
This event in New York will bring together policymakers, investors, and traditional finance (TradFi) leaders to discuss advancing tokenized capital markets. It follows Ondo’s acquisition of Oasis Pro, a platform registered with the SEC, and recent regulatory filings related to tokenized securities.

What this means for you:

• Potential positive impact: Strong partnerships with companies like Chainlink and JPMorgan could speed up adoption of tokenized assets. However, regulatory clarity is still needed.
• What to watch: Institutional investments flowing into Ondo Global Markets after the summit, especially since it recently expanded to BNB Chain and Blockchain.com.

3. Ondo Chain Expansion (2026)

What’s happening:
Ondo Chain is a permissioned Layer-1 blockchain designed for compliant asset tokenization. Launched in early 2025, the focus for 2026 is to grow the validator network and improve cross-chain connectivity with traditional finance systems.

What this means for you:

• Positive outlook: Better infrastructure could strengthen Ondo’s position as a leader in tokenized Treasuries, where it currently holds 53% market share, attracting more institutional users.
• Challenges: Competition from other projects on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain, like Maple Finance, could impact growth.

Conclusion

Ondo’s 2026 roadmap carefully balances token supply changes, regulatory engagement, and infrastructure improvements to push forward real-world asset tokenization. While the upcoming token unlock presents short-term risks, strategic partnerships and a focus on compliance could help ONDO become a key link between traditional finance and decentralized finance.

Keep an eye on daily trading volumes and the total value locked (TVL) in real-world assets to see if institutional demand can overcome the selling pressure after the unlock.

What updates are there in the ONDO code base?

Ondo's technology has recently grown to include Solana integration and improved ways to tokenize assets.

1. Global Markets Solana Program (January 8, 2026) – An open-source Rust program that lets users trade tokenized stocks on the Solana blockchain.
2. Ondo Points System Upgrade (February 14, 2025) – A redesigned system for tracking user rewards and participation in governance.

Deep Dive

1. Global Markets Solana Program (January 8, 2026)

Overview: Ondo launched an open-source smart contract written in Rust that allows tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs to be traded on Solana. This means people can trade traditional assets like NVIDIA shares or gold ETFs on a blockchain known for fast transactions and low fees.

What this means: This is positive news for ONDO because it broadens Ondo’s reach across different blockchains, making tokenized assets available to millions of Solana users. Faster and cheaper transactions could lead to more people using Ondo’s real-world asset (RWA) platform.
(Ondo Protocol GitHub)

2. Ondo Points System Upgrade (February 14, 2025)

Overview: Ondo improved its rewards dashboard so users can easily track "Ondo Points" earned by activities like holding USDY stablecoins or voting in governance. The points update weekly and show clear details on how they are earned.

What this means: This update is somewhat positive for ONDO because it makes it easier for users to stay engaged, though it doesn’t change how the protocol works. Clearer reward tracking may encourage users to stay involved longer in Ondo’s ecosystem.
(Ondo Foundation Blog)

Conclusion

Ondo is focusing on expanding across multiple blockchains and improving user rewards, strengthening its position in tokenizing real-world assets. The new Solana integration could speed up Ondo’s growth in on-chain stock trading.