What could affect the price of ONDO?

Ondo’s price is caught between two forces: a large number of tokens becoming available soon, which could push the price down, and growing momentum from its real-world asset offerings, which could boost the price.

1. Token Unlocks (Bearish) – On January 18, 2026, 1.94 billion ONDO tokens (57% of the total supply) will become available, which might lead to selling pressure.
2. Real-World Asset Growth (Bullish) – Ondo’s tokenized stocks and ETFs have received approval in the European Union and are now live on Solana and Binance Smart Chain.
3. Regulatory Wins (Bullish) – The U.S. SEC ended its investigation without charges, and Ondo secured EU passporting rights, allowing it to operate in 30 countries.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Pressure (Potential Negative Impact)

Overview:
Ondo will experience its second major token unlock on January 18, 2026, releasing 1.94 billion tokens, which is about 57% of the circulating supply. At current prices, this is worth roughly $657 million. After the first unlock in 2025, ONDO’s price dropped by 63% (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
This large release could flood the market with tokens, potentially overwhelming demand and pushing prices down. However, since 40% of these tokens are reserved for ecosystem growth, the full impact might be spread out over time.

2. Growth in Tokenized Real-World Assets (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Ondo’s real-world asset (RWA) products now hold $1.18 billion in total value locked (TVL). Their tokenized stocks and ETFs have been approved across the EU, reaching 500 million investors. Integration with Solana allows for 24/7 trading of U.S. stocks (Solana RWA Milestone).

What this means:
Historically, every 10% increase in Ondo’s share of the RWA market has led to a 6-8% rise in ONDO’s price. Revenue from tokenization fees could help stabilize the price even during market downturns.

3. Regulatory Progress (Positive Impact)

Overview:
In December 2025, the SEC closed its two-year investigation into Ondo without any charges. Additionally, regulators in Liechtenstein approved Ondo’s products for distribution across the European Union (SEC Closure).

What this means:
These regulatory approvals reduce risks and open up access to 86% of G20 markets, compared to 45% for competitors. This strong compliance could lead to higher valuations for Ondo.

Conclusion

While the large token unlock in January 2026 may cause short-term price volatility, Ondo’s strong infrastructure for real-world assets positions it well for long-term growth as tokenization surpasses $19 billion in total value locked. Keep an eye on the ONDO/EUR trading pair after the unlock—if the market absorbs the new tokens smoothly, it could show strong confidence from major investors in Ondo’s regulated asset offerings.

Will Ondo’s real-world revenue growth outpace the increase in token supply?

What are people saying about ONDO?

The conversation around ONDO (ONDO) is leaning bearish as it approaches a key support level, with concerns about upcoming token unlocks conflicting with some investors’ plans to buy more. Here’s the summary:

1. Token unlock concerns – The $0.35 support level is under pressure
2. Bearish pennant pattern – Potential 10% drop if $0.37 support breaks
3. RSI indicates weakness – Daily momentum at its lowest in six months

Deep Dive

1. @KhonshuArc: Bullish Accumulation Ahead of Unlock

"$ONDO 💎 A major token unlock is coming next week... I’m placing a limit order at $0.3525... My primary target zone is $0.85 – $1.15."
– @KhonshuArc (1.5K followers · 8.8K impressions · 2026-01-14 18:58 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for ONDO. It shows confidence that the price dip caused by the token unlock could be a good buying opportunity, with a potential gain of over 140% if buyers step in around the $0.35 support level.

2. @KlondikeAI: Bearish Pennant Pattern Signals Downside

"❕Bearish Pennant was formed... Consider entering short at $0.3690... target at $0.3305."
– @KlondikeAI (3.0K followers · 7.7K impressions · 2025-12-30 20:01 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign for ONDO. The bearish pennant pattern suggests the price could drop about 10% to $0.33 if the $0.37 support level fails, reflecting traders expecting selling pressure after the token unlock.

3. @ImCryptOpus: Weak RSI Points to Possible Downtrend

"RSI (1d) 39.03... Price Change(24h) -4.01%... Fear Greed Index 50/100"
– @ImCryptOpus (18.8K followers · 520K impressions · 2026-01-18 22:52 UTC)
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What this means: This is bearish for ONDO. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 is the lowest since July 2025, indicating weakening momentum and increasing the risk of a price drop below the $0.37 support level.

Conclusion

The short-term outlook for ONDO is bearish, but opinions differ on the long-term potential. Technical indicators suggest the price could break down, while some investors are optimistic and planning to buy during the dip. Keep an eye on the $0.35 to $0.37 support zone after the token unlock to see if large investors are accumulating or if panic selling takes over.

What is the latest news about ONDO?

Ondo is managing upcoming token releases and new product launches while growing its presence in regulated markets. Here’s a quick summary of the latest news:

1. Big Token Unlock on January 18, 2026 – 1.94 billion ONDO tokens (worth about $756 million) will be released, making up 61% of the circulating supply.
2. Launch of SGOVON & CEGON on January 15, 2026 – New tokenized ETFs and stocks expand Ondo’s real-world asset (RWA) offerings.
3. Partnership with BX Digital on October 31, 2025 – Over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs will be listed on a regulated Swiss exchange.

In-Depth Look

1. Big Token Unlock (January 18, 2026)

What happened:
Ondo released 1.94 billion ONDO tokens, which is 61% of the tokens currently available in the market, valued at around $756 million. Most of these tokens (85%) are set aside for growing the ecosystem and supporting the protocol, which helps reduce the chance of a big sell-off right away. However, past token unlocks have caused price swings even when the overall outlook was positive.

What this means for you:
In the short term, this event is neutral for ONDO’s price. Large token releases can sometimes lead to price drops because of increased supply, but Ondo’s growing real-world asset projects and interest from institutional investors might balance that out. Traders should keep an eye on how many tokens are moving to exchanges and how much trading activity there is. (Cryptocalendar)

2. Launch of SGOVON & CEGON (January 15, 2026)

What happened:
Ondo introduced two new tokenized investment products:

• SGOVON: A token that tracks the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF, priced around $100.46 with very low price changes (0.03% volatility).
• CEGON: A token that represents shares of Constellation Energy stock, priced at $309.17 with daily trading volume of about $189,000.

What this means for you:
This is good news for ONDO, showing Ondo’s strength in turning real-world assets into tokens. SGOVON offers a stable investment option, while CEGON gives exposure to the stock market. These products attract investors looking for steady income and equity exposure. However, low trading volume and regulatory challenges could affect growth. (WEEX)

3. Partnership with BX Digital (October 31, 2025)

What happened:
Ondo teamed up with BX Digital, part of the Boerse Stuttgart Group, to list over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on a regulated exchange in Switzerland. These tokens are backed by real assets held by U.S. custodians and are aimed at European institutional investors.

What this means for you:
This partnership is a positive long-term development. It helps connect traditional finance (TradFi) with decentralized finance (DeFi) in regulated markets, improving liquidity and encouraging more institutional investors to participate. However, there are challenges like navigating international regulations and making these products accessible to everyday investors. (Ondo Finance)

Conclusion

Ondo is carefully balancing the impact of large token releases with new product launches and regulatory progress. While some price ups and downs are expected in the short term, Ondo’s focus on compliant tokenization of real-world assets positions it well for growing institutional interest in crypto. The key question remains: will new institutional investments outweigh selling pressure after the token unlock?

What is expected in the development of ONDO?

Ondo’s roadmap highlights important upcoming events, including a major summit and updates to how its tokens work.

1. Ondo Summit (February 3, 2026) – A key industry event focused on advancing tokenized capital markets.
2. Tokenomics Updates (Date TBD) – Possible changes to staking rules and token features.
3. Global Market Expansion (2026) – Plans to make tokenized assets more accessible worldwide.

In-Depth Look

1. Ondo Summit (February 3, 2026)

What’s happening: The Ondo Summit in New York will bring together leaders from finance, investing, and government to push forward the use of tokenized stocks and ETFs. This builds on recent partnerships with Chainlink and BNB Chain. The event will also focus on creating common standards so different blockchain platforms can work together smoothly. Ondo’s recent submission to the SEC for regulatory guidance will likely influence the discussions.

Why it matters: This event could be very positive for ONDO because it may attract big institutional investors and partnerships. However, if regulatory issues slow progress, it could have a negative impact. Keep an eye out for new partnerships announced at the summit.

2. Tokenomics Updates (Date TBD)

What’s happening: After a large token unlock in January 2026, Ondo is considering changes to how staking works and how the token is used within its ecosystem. The goal is to encourage more participation in governance and support growth. There’s no set date yet, but the community is actively discussing these changes.

Why it matters: This is neutral for ONDO right now. Improvements could increase demand by making the token more useful, but uncertainty might cause price pressure. Watch for voting activity from OndoDAO as an early indicator.

3. Global Market Expansion (2026)

What’s happening: Ondo plans to offer access to over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on multiple blockchains like Solana and BNB Chain. They’re also working with platforms like PancakeSwap to make trading real-world assets easier and more standardized. After getting approval to operate in the EU, they aim to expand into European and Asian markets.

Why it matters: This expansion could be very positive for ONDO by increasing trading activity and adoption. However, there are risks in successfully executing these plans. Watch trading volumes on partner platforms for signs of growth.

Conclusion

Ondo’s roadmap focuses on building strong ties with institutions and meeting regulatory requirements. The upcoming Ondo Summit could be a key moment for the project’s growth. It will be important to see how new SEC guidance shapes the future of Ondo’s tokenized securities.

What updates are there in the ONDO code base?

Ondo’s recent software updates focus on creating secure, institution-ready ways to tokenize assets and enable smooth transactions across different blockchains.

1. Tokenized Treasuries Expansion (July 2025) – Improved smart contracts for yield-generating assets with stronger compliance features.
2. Ondo Chain Launch (February 2026) – A permission-based Layer-1 blockchain designed for regulated trading of real-world assets (RWAs).
3. Chainlink Integration (June 2025) – Cross-chain settlement capabilities to support institutional asset transfers.

In-Depth Look

1. Tokenized Treasuries Expansion (July 2025)

What happened: In July 2025, Ondo increased development activity by 40%, focusing on tokenizing U.S. Treasuries and other yield-bearing assets. The updates added stricter compliance checks and detailed audit trails to meet institutional standards.

The new code allows flexible compliance rules that can be customized based on local regulations (like KYC and AML). Smart contracts now enable instant redemption of OUSG tokens (representing tokenized Treasuries), cutting settlement times from hours down to minutes.

Why it matters: This strengthens ONDO’s role as a bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), making it more attractive to institutions looking for compliant investment options. (Source)

2. Ondo Chain Launch (February 2026)

What happened: Ondo Chain, a new proof-of-stake Layer-1 blockchain, was launched. It combines the openness of public blockchains with permissioned validators, such as regulated banks and custodians.

The code focuses on controlling who can validate transactions and supports staking backed by real-world assets. It also includes bridges that connect Ondo Chain with Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Solana, allowing easy transfer of tokenized stocks and ETFs across these networks.

Why it matters: While adoption may take time, this positions ONDO to become a major platform for regulated financial products in the future. (Source)

3. Chainlink Integration (June 2025)

What happened: Ondo partnered with Chainlink to enable cross-chain delivery-versus-payment (DvP) transactions. This was tested with JPMorgan using tokenized Treasuries.

The updates integrated Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), allowing secure, atomic swaps of real-world assets across different blockchains while ensuring compliance.

Why it matters: This reduces counterparty risk in institutional trades, a major barrier for traditional finance to adopt blockchain solutions. (Source)

Conclusion

Ondo is focusing on building institutional-grade DeFi infrastructure that balances innovation with regulatory compliance. These updates suggest Ondo is positioning itself as a key player in the future of tokenized capital markets. The big question remains: how quickly will regulated institutions adopt Ondo Chain’s technology?

Why did the price of ONDO fall?

Ondo (ONDO) dropped 11.39% in the last 24 hours, falling more than the overall market, which declined by 2.56%. Here’s why:

1. Token Unlock: A large annual release added about 1.7 billion ONDO tokens, increasing the supply by 35%. This diluted existing holders and led to more selling.
2. Whale Selling: Early investors moved over $80 million worth of ONDO to major exchanges, signaling they might sell soon.
3. Sector Weakness: Interest in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization cooled down, making investors more cautious.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock and Supply Shock (Negative Impact)

What happened: On January 18, Ondo released about 1.7 billion new tokens as part of its yearly vesting schedule. This is 35% of the tokens currently circulating.
Why it matters: This sudden increase in supply diluted the value for current holders and allowed early investors and team members to sell their tokens right away. Similar unlocks in the past have also led to price drops, reinforcing a negative outlook.

2. Whale Transfers to Exchanges (Negative Impact)

What happened: Blockchain data shows that over 200 million ONDO tokens (worth about $80 million) were moved to big exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken within 24 hours after the unlock.
Why it matters: When large amounts of tokens are sent to exchanges, it usually means big holders (whales) are preparing to sell. This increased selling pressure pushed prices down faster.
What to watch: If fewer tokens are sent to exchanges, it might mean selling is slowing down.

3. Cooling Interest in Real-World Asset Tokens (Negative Impact)

What happened: The broader market for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) saw investors taking profits, and Ondo’s total value locked (TVL) didn’t grow enough to offset overall market caution.
Why it matters: Since ONDO is a leading token in the RWA space, it tends to lose value when investors move money from alternative coins to safer options like Bitcoin or stablecoins during uncertain times.

Conclusion

The combination of the large token unlock, heavy selling by big holders, and a weaker sector led to ONDO’s poor performance. Technical indicators show the token is oversold (RSI7 at 28.3), but the high volume of tokens moving to exchanges suggests investors should be cautious.
Key point to watch: Will the selling pressure from whales ease below $0.34, potentially allowing ONDO to bounce back?